官方将这一举措定性为一次性、针对性的紧急干预，核心目标是在不削弱美国AI竞争力的前提下，缓解 中大西洋地区因电力需求激增而快速上升的居民电价压力。事实上，部分科技公司已经开始主动调整策 略，直接投资发电资产或与能源企业合作建设专用电源，以支持更大规模的数据中心布局，并尽可能降低 对当地电价和社区的外溢影响。 上周的文章中我们提到，2026 年美国 AI 产业正在从"技术突破期"迈入"基础设施深化期"。如果说前一 阶段的核心竞争力在于模型能力、算力效率和算法突破，那么接下来的竞争焦点，正在快速转向"谁能更 快、更稳定、更低成本地获取算力"。而在算力背后，真正构成长期约束的就是电力与能源基础设施。 大型科技公司正在用真金白银为这一轮AI竞赛铺路。无论是新一代超大规模数据中心，还是为AI专用负 载定制的园区式算力集群，其共同特征都是能耗密集、用电持续、对供电稳定性要求极高。这使得能源问 题，从过去的"配套条件"，迅速上升为AI产业链中的关键变量。 美国最大电网运营商PJM Interconnection上周五（2月6日）警告称，受数据中心快速扩张推动，未来十 年其电网可能面临高达60吉瓦的电力供应缺口，相当于约60 ...

鉴于最近市场对人工智能（AI）泡沫风险担忧加剧所引发的反应，我们对可投资指数和策略进行了压力 测试，以应对假设性的AI泡沫破裂情景。由于市场对科技公司估值过高的担忧通常与2000年互联网泡沫 破裂相比较，本次分析将以这一历史时期及当时市场因子的反应作为研究起点。 我们在以下分析中探讨的情景已纳入慧甚工作站（FactSet Workstation）中"投资组合分析风险报告"的主 题模板压力测试。 点击图片查看大图 互联网泡沫破裂 下表展示了我们所分析的短期和长期区间内，各指数的具体百分比回报率。 | | 标普500 | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 纳斯达克100指数 | 标普信息技术行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 短期反应 - 2 个月 (2000 年 3 月 27 日至 2000年 5 月 26 日) | -10% | -35% | -34% | -28% | | 长期反应(2000年 3 月 27 日至 2002 年 9 月 27 日) | -49% | -78% | -83% | -69% | 在互联网泡沫时代，科技公司的市值在2000年3月达到顶峰，并在当月底泡沫 ...

随着美股财报季的开启，标普500指数在2025年第四季度目前的盈利增速为8.2%，这将是该指数连续第十 个季度实现同比盈利增长。鉴于大多数标普500公司报告的实际盈利高于市场预期，那么该指数在去年四 季度最终录得8.2%的盈利增长，其可能性有多大？ 基于历次财报季中盈利增速的平均上修幅度，我们认为，标普500指数去年四季度很可能至少实现14%的 盈利增长，从而连续第5个季度录得两位数的盈利增速。 首先要明确，当标普500指数公司在财报季公布的实际每股收益（EPS）高于市场预期时，该指数的整体 盈利增速就会上升，因为在增长率计算中，较高的实际EPS数字取代了原先较低的预期收益。举例而言， 某公司预计当季EPS为1.05美元，而去年同期EPS为1.00美元，那么该公司预计将报告5%的盈利增长。如 果该公司最终公布的实际EPS为1.10美元（较预期高出0.05美元），那么该公司当季的实际盈利增速将提 升至10%，比原先的预期增速高出5个百分点（5%+5%=10%）。 事实上，在过去40个季度中，有37个季度标普500指数的实际盈利增速高于季末的预期盈利增速。仅有 2020年第一季度、2022年第三季度和2022年第 ...

正值美股财报季，美国科技"七巨头"陆续披露2025年第四季度业绩。从财报结果来看，科技巨头去年四 季度整体增长依旧稳健，AI相关业务对收入与用户活跃度的拉动作用正在逐步显现。无论是广告效率、 云服务需求，还是企业级AI应用的渗透速度，管理层在业绩电话会上普遍释放出对AI中长期落地前景的 乐观预期。 但与此同时，市场的关注焦点正从"AI能做什么"，转向一个更现实的问题——巨额资本开支是否能够带 来与之匹配的回报。随着算力需求持续膨胀、基础设施建设周期被不断拉长，AI投资的节奏与兑现路 径，正在进入一个更为复杂、也更具结构性的阶段。 以Meta为例，该公司预计2026年资本支出上限将达到1350亿美元，较华尔街原有预期高出约20%，几乎 是上一年度投资规模的两倍。Meta将资本开支激增的主要原因归结为基础设施成本的全面上升，尤其是 为支持"超级智能实验室"及核心广告业务中 AI能力的深度嵌入。 尽管基础设施投入显著抬升，Meta仍预计2026年的经营利润将高于2025年。CEO 马克·扎克伯格明确表 示，公司将在全球范围内加速建设数据中心，推出新一代前沿AI模型，并持续将AI融入广告投放、内容 推荐与商业转化等核 ...

Core Insights - By the end of 2025, the assets under management (AUM) of U.S. ETFs reached a record $13.5 trillion, with December alone seeing an inflow of $228 billion, contributing to a total annual inflow of $1.49 trillion, also a record high [1][17]. - A total of 131 new ETFs were launched in December, bringing the total for 2025 to 1,167 new funds, a 59% increase from 736 in 2024 [13]. Fund Flows by Asset Class - **Equities**: AUM of $10.62 trillion, December inflow of $173.09 billion, and total inflow for 2025 of $917.67 billion [3]. - **Fixed Income**: AUM of $2.27 trillion, December inflow of $41.65 billion, and total inflow for 2025 of $436.91 billion [3]. - **Others**: AUM of $641 billion, December inflow of $14.20 billion, and total inflow for 2025 of $137.14 billion [3]. - **Total**: AUM of $13.53 trillion, December inflow of $228.94 billion, and total inflow for 2025 of $1.49 trillion [3]. Fund Flows by Industry - The industrial, consumer discretionary, and utilities sectors attracted the most inflows in December, while technology, consumer staples, and energy sectors experienced outflows [6]. ETF Inflows by Type - **Equity ETFs**: Accounted for 76% of total inflows, with a rise from $103 billion in November to $173 billion in December, a 67% increase [8]. - **Fixed Income ETFs**: Inflows decreased by 5.9% from $44.2 billion in November to $41.7 billion in December [8]. - **Commodity ETFs**: Inflows surged by 396% from $2 billion in November to $99.9 billion in December [8]. - **Currency ETFs**: After a $3.4 billion outflow, they rebounded with an inflow of $413 million in December [8]. - **Asset Allocation ETFs**: Increased inflows from $6.76 million in November to $16 million in December [8]. - **Alternative Investment ETFs**: Inflows rose from $1.9 billion to $2.2 billion [8]. Notable New ETF Products - In December, 92 new equity ETFs were launched, making up 61% of new issuances. Fixed income ETFs added 15 new funds, accounting for 19.5% [13]. - Highlighted new products include: - DAC 3D Dividend Growth ETF (DVGR) focusing on companies with at least 30 years of double-digit dividend growth. - USCF Oil + Bitcoin Strategy Fund (WTIB) providing leveraged exposure to oil and Bitcoin futures. - Grayscale Chainlink Trust ETF (GLNK) passively holding LINK and tracking its value [13]. Annual Performance Highlights - In 2025, equity ETFs saw a net inflow of $917 billion, with $809.5 billion allocated to various fund sizes and styles, and $465.9 billion flowing into large-cap ETFs [20]. - Thematic ETFs rebounded, attracting $43.5 billion in new investments after experiencing outflows in 2024 [20]. - Fixed income ETFs also grew, with inflows increasing by 45% from $300 billion in 2024 to $437 billion in 2025 [23]. - Commodity ETFs saw a dramatic rise in inflows from $1.3 billion in 2024 to $58 billion in 2025, largely driven by gold ETFs [26].

在全球避险情绪持续升温、央行购金潮方兴未艾的背景下，黄金本应是今年最"稳"的资产之一。然而，连 续走高的金价，近日却意外按下回调按钮。以纽交所COMEX黄金期货为例，自年初至1月29日（美东时 间）， COMEX黄金期货上涨了12.28%，但上周五（1月30日）单日就断崖式下跌8.88%，随后本周一 （2月2日）再跌0.90%，报4702.60美元/盎司。而现货黄金在1月30日下跌9.25%，创1980年4月1日以来 最大单日跌幅。 从直接触发因素来看，市场普遍认为，美国总统特朗普新提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）为 下一任美联储主席是主要因素。沃什在其过往政策立场中被普遍视为"鹰派人物"，强调金融稳定与通胀控 制，且对长期宽松货币政策持相对审慎态度。市场担忧，如果沃什最终就任，美联储未来可能在降息的同 时推进缩表操作，这意味着美元流动性边际收缩，推动美元升值，对黄金、白银等不生息资产构成压制。 与此同时，黄金自身也面临较大的回调压力。近日，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）近期多次上调黄金、白 银期货的保证金比例以压制黄金投机，增加了交易者的资金成本，促使部分资金离场。而且自去年以来， 黄金价格 ...

美国电网正迎来数十年来最强劲的投资周期，这股浪潮源于超大规模数据中心和工业项目的兴起，它们正 在重塑全美的用电需求格局。这种趋势在美国核电公司安特吉覆盖的四个州——路易斯安那州、阿肯色 州、密西西比州和得克萨斯州——表现得尤为明显。这家公用事业公司已悄然崛起，成为美国人工智能时 代最重要的基础设施供应商之一。 路易斯安那州： Meta、多吉瓦天然气发电厂 和公式费率灵活性 路易斯安那州是安特吉获取并实现人工智能驱动需求商业化的最典型案例。 今年早些时候，路易斯安那州公共服务委员会批准了三座新的联合循环天然气发电厂，总装机容量约2.3 吉瓦，同时批准了为Meta的Hyperion数据中心提供电力所需的输电设施。该项目通过路易斯安那州的公 式费率计划（FRP）让安吉特实现了长期成本回收，允许公用事业公司在每台发电机组投运后立即将其计 入已商议好的电价,可以让电力公司更快、更确定地回收已批准投资的成本，减少频繁的调价的监管摩 擦。 这一监管结构以"速度"为核心：在一个单一监管程序中，将资源认证、电价机制设计和成本回收整合起 来，专门服务于客户驱动的大型项目。而类似的项目可能还有更多。路易斯安那州目前正在评估最高达3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 3.50%-3.75% during the upcoming meeting, as recent economic data does not support a rate cut [4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of maintaining the interest rate at the January meeting is as high as 97.2%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 2.8% [5]. - By June, the probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 47.8%, but over 30% still expect rates to remain unchanged [5]. - The Federal Reserve has recently implemented three rate cuts, and the upcoming meeting may see a pause in further adjustments, with Chairman Powell likely to emphasize satisfaction with the current monetary policy stance [5]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The U.S. job market has cooled but has not deteriorated, and consumer spending remains robust, indicating that the economy is not on the brink of a typical recession [4]. - The PCE price index rose to 2.8% in November, still significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, suggesting that a rate cut could exacerbate inflation [4]. Group 3: Leadership and Institutional Concerns - The focus is shifting towards the institutional aspects of the Federal Reserve, particularly with President Trump expected to announce a new chairperson soon [6][7]. - There are speculations that Powell may remain on the board after stepping down as chair, which could influence the balance of power within the FOMC [6][7]. - Analysts believe that even with a new chair, significant changes in interest rate policy would require consensus within the FOMC, rather than simply following presidential directives [7].

Group 1: S&P 500 Earnings Outlook - Analysts expect a 15% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2026, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit growth [4] - The top five contributors to this growth include NVIDIA and Meta, with the "Big Seven" tech companies projected to grow earnings by 22.7% [4] - All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are expected to achieve year-over-year earnings growth, with five sectors likely to see double-digit increases [4] Group 2: Revenue and Profit Margins - The anticipated revenue growth rate for S&P 500 companies in 2026 is 7.2%, surpassing the 10-year average of 5.3% [5] - Ten out of eleven sectors are expected to see revenue growth, with the energy sector projected to decline [5] - The net profit margin for the S&P 500 is expected to reach 13.9%, the highest since 2008 [5] Group 3: U.S. ETF Market Growth - The U.S. ETF market is expanding, with Vanguard expected to surpass BlackRock as the largest ETF issuer [8] - The number and market share of actively managed ETFs are anticipated to grow, aided by new regulatory structures [8] - A significant portion of new money in ETFs is flowing into cryptocurrency-focused funds, reflecting a growing interest in digital assets [9] Group 4: AI in Financial Services - Generative AI and intelligent agent systems are becoming essential infrastructure for financial services, with a focus on improving efficiency and accuracy [11] - The adoption of AI is expected to face challenges in scalability and effectiveness, necessitating ongoing innovation [11] - Maintaining trust and demonstrating quantifiable returns on AI investments will be critical for organizations [12] Group 5: Private Equity Market Trends - Accessibility to private equity investments is increasing, with potential changes in regulations allowing broader participation [15] - Private equity is increasingly focused on technology-driven assets, particularly those related to AI [15] - The need for transparency and valuation discipline in private equity investments is becoming more pronounced [16] Group 6: Energy Sector Dynamics - Data centers are expected to significantly impact the electricity and utility sectors, with new demand anticipated in 2026 [17] - Public utility companies are likely to experiment with different rate structures to manage costs associated with data center services [18] - The oil and gas industry is expected to experience a divergence in performance due to supply and demand changes [19] Group 7: Global Policy Changes - Geopolitical factors, technological advancements, and legislative developments are shaping global policy directions [23] - The focus on digital asset regulation is shifting from "whether to regulate" to "how to implement regulation" [23] - Sustainable development regulations are evolving, emphasizing the integration of sustainability into business practices [25] Group 8: Wealth Management Trends - The wealth management industry is expected to fully embrace AI and digitalization, moving beyond skepticism [27] - Institutions that effectively integrate third-party technology with proprietary data will drive efficiency and client engagement [27] - The competition between traditional wealth management firms and digital platforms is intensifying, focusing on service quality and trust [29] Group 9: Market Influences - The Federal Reserve's policies, consumer sentiment, and international stock valuations are key factors influencing market dynamics in 2026 [30] - Consumer confidence remains a critical indicator for economic activity, with potential government measures to stimulate spending being closely monitored [31] - International markets may continue to outperform U.S. markets, raising questions about ongoing valuation disparities [31]

Core Insights - The investment front office is becoming increasingly complex, requiring teams to switch between multiple applications, manage vast amounts of data, and make faster, more informed decisions [2] - The tools accumulated by institutions have become fragmented over time, creating productivity bottlenecks rather than empowering teams, highlighting the need to rethink the front office technology architecture [4] Fragmented Workflow Challenges - A common pain point for front office professionals is the excessive number of applications needed to execute their work, with research indicating that 95% of team members use four or more tools daily [5] - Dependence on multiple, often disconnected systems severely hampers efficiency, as analysts and portfolio managers spend valuable time switching between applications and manually transferring data [5] - Fragmentation also introduces operational risks, as manual data entry is prone to errors, and a lack of unified data sources can lead to inconsistent analysis and poor decision quality [5] Importance of Efficient Collaboration - In the high-risk environment of investment management, seamless collaboration is essential, yet many institutions struggle to facilitate effective cross-functional communication [6] - Disconnected tools and dispersed data sources hinder collaboration among portfolio managers, analysts, and traders, potentially leading to strategic misalignment and missed opportunities [6] Future of the Front Office: AI and Automation - Discussions around efficiency and productivity are increasingly focusing on the role of advanced technologies, with generative AI (GenAI) and intelligent automation reshaping front office operations [7] - Research shows that 76% of companies are experimenting with GenAI to optimize workflows, as these technologies can automate routine tasks like data aggregation and report generation, allowing professionals to focus on strategic activities [7] - GenAI can integrate vast amounts of unstructured data, uncover hidden patterns, and present insights in an easily understandable format, providing a competitive advantage for institutions that embrace these innovations [7] Path to a Modern Front Office - Transforming the front office technology architecture from a collection of disconnected systems into a cohesive engine for breakthrough results is a strategic imperative for institutions [8] - By addressing workflow fragmentation, enhancing team collaboration, and leveraging the power of artificial intelligence, organizations can create a more agile and efficient operational framework [8] - A newly launched e-book titled "From Bottlenecks to Breakthroughs: Rethinking Your Front Office Technology Architecture" offers actionable strategies for institutions to assess their current state, identify key improvement areas, and integrate cutting-edge technologies [8]