Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market recently experienced significant volatility, with gold futures dropping over 11% and silver futures plummeting by 31.37%, marking the worst single-day performance since March 1980. This decline followed a bullish trend in precious metals, prompting warnings from prominent investors about potential risks [2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - On January 28, a notable private equity figure, Dan Bin, warned of a potential market correction following a surge in prices, referencing historical data where gold and silver experienced drastic declines after reaching peak prices in 1980 and 2011, respectively [2]. - Dan Bin has been heavily invested in U.S. AI technology stocks and has shown little interest in gold stocks, leading to skepticism about his warnings regarding gold. He clarified that his lack of investment in gold does not influence his perspective [3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Dan Bin's management of 77 private equity products has yielded an average return of ***% for 2025, with a three-year average return of ***%, placing him at the top among private equity founders in the last three years [4]. - The latest disclosures of Dan Bin's fund, Dongfang Gangwan, revealed a total holding of 10 U.S. stocks valued at approximately $1.316 billion, equivalent to over 9.1 billion RMB, with Google surpassing Nvidia as the largest holding [5][6].

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 在量化股票策略中，除量化指增外，量化选股策略在2025年也迎来高光时刻。私募排排网数据显示，截至2025年底， 符合排名规则的量化选股 产品 2025年收益均值高达43.82%，收益中位数为46.11%，正收益占比97.97%。 量化选股也叫"空气指增"策略，不同于量化指增策略，量化选股策略通常不对标任何宽基指数，基本不受风格、行业等约束，纯粹是通过量化策 略模型选出具有上涨潜力的股票构建组合，相对具有更大的灵活性和适应性优势。 随着2025年落下帷幕，A股市场的结构性行情为量化选股策略提供了广阔的舞台，也对模型的迭代能力提出了更高要求。那么，2025年的量化选 股谁才是最终的赢家？ 0 1 100亿以上：龙旗科技、稳博投资位居前二！ 私募排排网数据显示，百亿私募旗下符合排名规则的59只量化选股产品，2025年收益均值为56.16%，表现较为亮眼。十强量化选股产品的上榜 门槛为 ***% ，龙旗科技旗下产品领衔。（ 点此查看收益 ） [应监管要求，私募基金不能公开展示业绩，文中涉及收益数据用***替代，合格投资者可扫描图中二维码或点击文末阅读原文 ...

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 真正穿越牛熊的，不是对时机的精准捕捉，而是把风控融入血液的投资体系。 1995年2月23日下午4时22分，国债期货327品种的盘面突现异动。一笔730万口的巨量卖单在最后8分钟将价格从151.98元高位猛砸至147.40元。在 武汉君安证券营业部的自营室里，一位年轻交易员做出了职业生涯中最具风险的一笔交易——与同事各自买入1万口多单。 若这笔交易成立，这一决策将带来约5000万元的盈亏波动，而当时他们所在公司的注册资本恰为5000万元。可惜那一夜，清算结果迟迟未出，直到 第二天公告最后7分钟的交易单通通取消。多年后，这位名为汪忠远的交易员已成为著名私募基金"资瑞兴投资"的创始人，他回顾道："一个营业 部，一个小小交易员，就能操作如此巨额的交易头寸，折射出当时券商乃至整个金融体系风险控制的薄弱根基。" 正是这次事件，为日后一家秉持 "严控回撤，追求绝对收益" 核心理念的私募机构，埋下了最原始的风险敬畏种子。 01 风控起源： "327事件"的烙印 "327国债事件"最终以最后七分钟交易无效告终，却深刻塑造了一位未来投资家的风控哲学。2022年初，当 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanguard Group, one of the largest asset management companies globally, reported a slight increase in its U.S. stock holdings, reaching a total market value of approximately $6.9 trillion by the end of Q4 2025, up from about $6.68 trillion at the end of Q3 2025 [2]. Group 1: Holdings Overview - By the end of Q4 2025, Vanguard held 4,329 U.S. stocks, with a total market value of $6.9 trillion, equivalent to approximately 48 trillion RMB [2]. - Vanguard's top 50 holdings accounted for about $3.49 trillion, representing 50.58% of its total portfolio [4]. - There were 110 stocks in Vanguard's portfolio with a market value exceeding $10 billion, and 9 stocks with a market value exceeding $100 billion [4]. Group 2: Top Holdings - Nvidia was Vanguard's largest holding, with approximately 2.267 billion shares valued at about $422.736 billion, making up 6.1% of the portfolio [5]. - Apple and Microsoft followed as significant holdings, each with a market value exceeding $300 billion [5]. - The performance of key stocks varied, with Nvidia's stock price decreasing by 0.04%, while Apple's increased by 6.77% and Microsoft's decreased by 6.63% during Q4 [2].

以下文章来源于中欧瑞博 ，作者吴伟志 中欧瑞博 . 中欧瑞博，百亿老牌金牛私募，专注于证券二级市场投资，投资理念：坚持与伟大企业共同成长，尊重趋势 策略适配。在这里，读懂股市的春夏秋冬！ 全文字数 | 4538字 阅读时长 | 11分钟 2026年开年仅一个月，全球政经、地缘政治、大宗商品、资本市场便不断上演大戏，很多都是史无前例的，让人目不暇接。面对国际新旧秩序的转换，许 多人迷茫纠结。资本市场历来都有一月预言的说法，其含义就是每一年的第一个月资本市场的表现，往往对这一年有着预示效应。 开年的第一个月，最吸引眼球的是大宗商品，尤其是有色金属出现了暴涨 + 暴跌的行情。 承接2025年强劲的走势，一开年，银、金、铜、铝、 锂等有色金属价格持续走强，多方势如破竹，几乎一路单边上涨，到1月29日最高价，银、金、铜、铝、锂几种商品涨幅分别为69.95%、 29.65%、16.25%、11.9%、55.43%。有色金属的价格上涨速度之快、幅度之大，极为罕见。 北京时间1月31日凌晨，纽约期银主力合约在周四创出121.785美元历史新高后转头向下，最低跌至74美元，日内跌幅35%，现货白银跌破74.6美 元，日内跌幅达 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 is characterized by extreme structural trends, favoring small-cap and growth stocks while large-cap and value styles face pressure. Significant sector differentiation is observed, with industries like non-ferrous metals, communication, and electronics seeing annual gains exceeding 40%, while food and beverage and coal sectors decline [3][4]. Market Trends - From the previous bull market (2019-2021) to the new market cycle, A-share sector rotations have been frequent, reflecting profound industrial changes, shifting from "consumer dominance" to "technology leadership" and moving from the "real estate golden era" to the rise of "new productive forces" [3]. - The performance of sectors has varied significantly over the years, with the household appliances sector leading in 2019 but becoming a laggard by 2021. In contrast, non-ferrous metals, which led in 2025, had a relatively flat performance in the preceding three years [3]. Investment Performance - Among the top private equity firms, 66.84% of stock long products managed to achieve positive returns for three consecutive years from 2023 to 2025, with an average annual return of 16.95%, 29.68%, and 39.31% respectively, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [5]. - The top-performing products over the last three years include those from firms like Dongfang Gangwan, Abama Investment, and Hanrong Investment, with cumulative returns averaging 107.44% [5]. Long-term Performance - Only 10.09% of stock long products managed to achieve positive returns for five consecutive years from 2021 to 2025, with an average cumulative return of 140.94% [15]. - A mere 10.91% of stock long products achieved positive returns for seven consecutive years from 2019 to 2025, with an average cumulative return of 273.02% [18]. Notable Fund Managers - Dongfang Gangwan's "Qiting No. 1" led the three-year cumulative return rankings, while Abama Investment's "Abama Chao Feng Po Lang A Class" also showed impressive performance [8][13]. - The investment strategies of these firms emphasize independent thinking and long-term beliefs, with a focus on disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence, which is expected to drive significant advancements in various sectors over the next 5 to 10 years [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategy is poised for significant opportunities in 2026, driven by a combination of favorable market conditions and the need for diversification in investment portfolios [2][6]. Group 1: 2025 Performance of CTA Strategies - In 2025, the futures and derivatives strategy index rose by approximately 13.86%, with the median return across all products reaching 12.51% and a maximum drawdown median of only -6.33%, highlighting the necessity of allocation to these strategies [2]. - The performance of subjective and quantitative CTA products was impressive, with profitability ratios of 88.2% and 90.4%, and median annual returns of 16.47% and 12.65%, respectively [3]. - The long-cycle trend CTA strategy benefited from the prolonged rise in precious metals, establishing itself as a leader in the full-spectrum trend CTA category [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook for 2026 - The article forecasts that 2026 will be a year of opportunities for CTA strategies, as the global economy transitions from "weak recovery" to "early reflation," characterized by a "cooling energy market and rising metals" [6]. - Key bullish areas include gold, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank purchases, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [7]. - Conversely, bearish areas include crude oil, with a projected oversupply of 4 million barrels per day, leading to a forecasted Brent crude price drop to $57 per barrel [7]. Group 3: CTA Strategy Logic and Market Conditions - The article notes that the "clear long and short" market structure aligns with CTA trading logic, where quantitative CTAs capture emerging trends and subjective CTAs leverage fundamental research for wave opportunities [8]. - The ongoing global low-interest-rate environment and the "yield drought" backdrop create fertile ground for trend-following and cross-sectional arbitrage strategies, enhancing the risk-adjusted returns of CTA strategies [12]. - The CTA strategy is positioned as a "ballast" in investment portfolios, capable of navigating through cycles and capturing both long and short opportunities, especially in a market characterized by structural adjustments and geopolitical risks [12].

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 2025年A股持续向好，三大指数齐升，私募行业也迎来业绩爆发，最为亮眼的当数 指数增强基金 。 私募排排网数据显示，四大指增策略在2025年 收益显著领衔其他私募策略，中证1000指增、其他指增(主要包含中证2000指增)、中证500指增2025年收益均在40%以上。 通常来说，主观多头、量化选股等策略凭借精准选股、集中持仓等优势，在牛市行情中的收益表现往往更胜一筹，为什么2025年业绩表现突出的是 指数增强基金？指数增强基金到底是什么，具体的投资逻辑如何？对比ETF基金有何优势？普通投资者如何配置？ 0 1 02 指数增强基金到底是什么，底层逻辑是什么？ 指数增强基金类似是一种 "争取考得比平均分好"的基金 ，通过名称的字面意思来理解： 1)"指数" （比如沪深300）就是一个市场或一个板块的"平均分"。它由一大批股票按规则组成，代表了这些股票的整体走势。这个"平均分"也就是 所谓的贝塔收益，即市场收益。 2025年的指数增强凭什么领先？ 2025年量化指增策略业绩之所以领先，或许是 "天时"（有利的市场环境）、"地利"（ 市场 风格占优）与" ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformative changes in China's private equity industry by 2025, highlighting the rise of AI-driven quantitative strategies, the expansion of private equity scale to over 22 trillion yuan, and the acceleration of overseas investments, leading to a more diversified industry landscape [1][5]. Group 1: Early Exploration - The journey into quantitative research began with a broad exploration approach, emphasizing the importance of absorbing various knowledge and methods without early limitations [7]. - The initial phase involved replicating brokerage research strategies, which revealed significant differences in results due to data cleaning and parameter selection, underscoring the importance of understanding data nuances [8]. - The researcher discovered alternative data sources, such as management discussions in financial reports and non-structured information from company research memos, which were underutilized in mainstream quantitative circles [8]. Group 2: Practical Advancements - A pivotal shift occurred in the researcher’s role, moving from executing quantitative models to actively participating in the construction of a "super fusion strategy," integrating quantitative and subjective investment approaches [10]. - The initial model of "subjective direction, quantitative execution" faced challenges due to misalignment with existing industry classifications, prompting a need for a tailored investment framework [10][12]. - The new approach involved creating a dynamic "industry and concept cluster" that aligns with the firm's unique investment logic, moving away from passive reliance on market classifications [12]. Group 3: Mathematical Foundations - The experience in mathematical Olympiads contributed to a foundational "thinking code," emphasizing rigor, problem decomposition, and a balance between imagination and logical validation in quantitative research [14][15]. - The rigorous pursuit of logical consistency in model construction helps avoid common pitfalls, while the ability to break down complex problems into manageable components enhances problem-solving efficiency [14][15]. Group 4: Theoretical and Empirical Balance - The article emphasizes the importance of seeking theoretical validation through simulations while being cautious of the assumptions made during these simulations [17]. - Historical data analysis serves to identify the limitations of theories rather than merely confirming their accuracy, highlighting the need for critical evaluation of model applicability [17][18]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The private equity industry is undergoing significant changes with the emergence of new technologies and methodologies, yet the core logic of finding structured models from market uncertainties remains unchanged [19]. - The ability to navigate different paradigms and freely traverse knowledge domains is seen as essential for creating real value in the evolving landscape of quantitative finance [19].

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 在资产管理行业的金字塔尖，头部私募基金经理（所属公司规模在50亿以上）凭借其管理的庞大资金体量与深刻的市场洞察，长期以来市场风向 的重要引领者。这些掌舵者的每一次调仓、每一篇投资手记，都可能引发市场的广泛解读。 私募排排网数据显示，截至 2026年1月23日，头部 私募基金经理共有1316位，仅占所有基金经理总数的4.34%。 为了让读者更全面地了解头部私募基金经理，接下来，笔者将分别盘点近半年、近1年、近3年、近5年业绩位列10强的头部私募基金经理。 （注：上榜的头部私募基金经理所管产品至少有3只有业绩展示且符合排名规则） 0 1 近半年：博普科技何瑞琳摘得桂冠！ 近半年，所管产品至少有3只有业绩展示且符合排名规则的基金经理共有148位，其中10强基金经理的"上榜门槛"为 *** %。在10强基金经理 中，准百亿私募（规模50-100亿）的基金经理有6位，百亿私募基金经理有4位。从投资模式来看，混合型（"主观+量化"）私募、主观私募基金 经理较多，各有4位；量化私募基金经理有3位。（ 点此查看收益 ） [应监管要求，私募产品不能公开展示业绩，文 ...