From UBS 黄金最近成为表现最好的资产类别，过去一年上涨了 50%。 现在的关键问题是何时获利了结。 与股票或债券不同，黄金缺乏确定"公允价值"的估值指 标，这一决策很有挑战。有些人会建议 使用实际利率 ，但证明难以应用(下图，已经背离），因为近期黄金价格的波动可能更多受地缘政治因素驱动，而 非投资组合优化 在本文中，我们回顾了历史上的地缘政治事件，以提供黄金走势的判断。以下是一些需要关注的"见顶信号" 黄金一旦突破，通常会在两三年内翻2-4倍……至少达到 4000 美元 当黄金价格在2024年4月突破 2100 美元时，我们在《黄金突破：追还是放弃？》中讨论过， 黄金长时间震荡后一旦突破，涨势通常迅猛且激烈， 历史 上在短时间内曾出现过 2-4 倍的飙升（是的你没看错）。以2-3年长期持有为目标的投资者可以预期价格翻倍，甚至超过4000 美元。 自1971年布雷顿森林体系结束黄金开始自由交易以来，黄金经历了四次重要的突破阶段：1972 年 2 月、1978 年 8 月、2008 年 2 月，以及最近的 2024 年 3 月（下图）。值得注意的是，黄金价格的突破在某种程度上预示了 经济衰退 和 地缘政治 ...

比如美团真的千亿利润了？太久不跟美团差点被唬住了。看了眼外卖最多算1600亿收入，大概350亿营 业利润，按照日均6000万单外卖，1500万单闪购，外卖单均利润1块4，闪购单均利润3-4毛 看完实际数据再回头理性分析，京东到底什么意图？ 零售的核心可能是周转率，而周转背后就是单量和交易频次。频次也是当年拼多多能崛起的一个重要支 撑点，也是美团即时零售能在整个零售大蛋糕中切出一块的关键。外卖就是零售里面最高频的垂类，通 过高频再去切闪购、同城电商等低频，不能说降维打击，毕竟零售是容纳"多快好省"多样化的，但对低 频一定是个威胁。 而京东，秉持高ASP高端化品牌定位和用户心智，但反面，就是零售平台中最低的交易频次。左边是电 商白热化格局，右边同城即时零售可能面对美团配送网络的威胁。主动出击可能就是东哥最终的战略选 择。 那么大家最关心的问题来了，美团的护城河到底是什么？ 所有人都在说：用户、商户、配送网络，双边+网络基座的规模效应。规模越大，平台在其中议价权越 高，压榨更多利润。 用户可以隐形提价，让商户内卷提高抽佣，配送供给越来越充裕带来的单均配送 成本下降。但配送这一点 自从反垄断和社保之后，成本逐渐刚性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 super node claims to rival Nvidia's NVL72, but there are discrepancies in the hardware descriptions and capabilities between CloudMatrix and the UB-Mesh paper, suggesting they may represent different hardware forms [1][2][8]. Group 1: CloudMatrix vs. UB-Mesh - CloudMatrix is described as a commercial 384 NPU scale-up super node, while UB-Mesh outlines a plan for an 8000 NPU scale-up super node [8]. - The UB-Mesh paper indicates a different architecture for the next generation of NPUs, potentially enhancing capabilities beyond the current 910C model [10][11]. - There are significant differences in the number of NPUs per rack, with CloudMatrix having 32 NPUs per rack compared to UB-Mesh's 64 NPUs per rack [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - CloudMatrix's total power consumption is estimated at 500KW, significantly higher than NVL72's 145KW, raising questions about its energy efficiency [2]. - The analysis of optical fiber requirements for CloudMatrix suggests that Huawei's vertical integration may mitigate costs and power consumption concerns associated with fiber optics [3][4]. - The UB-Mesh paper proposes a multi-rack structure using electrical connections within racks and optical connections between racks, which could optimize deployment and reduce complexity [9]. Group 3: Market Implications - The competitive landscape may shift if Huawei successfully develops a robust AI hardware ecosystem, potentially challenging Nvidia's dominance in the market [11]. - The ongoing development of AI infrastructure in China could lead to a new competitive environment, especially with the emergence of products like DeepSeek [11][12]. - The perception of optical modules and their cost-effectiveness may evolve, similar to the trajectory of laser radar technology in the automotive industry [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and complexities faced by companies in the current geopolitical landscape, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations and the shifting global supply chain dynamics [1]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - Companies are facing contradictory demands, such as relocating high-precision server assembly from Asia to the U.S. while simultaneously navigating legal and technical barriers to transfer GPUs from the U.S. to China [1]. - The article highlights the increasing division of the global economy into two ecosystems centered around the U.S. and China, as stated by the Prime Minister of Singapore [1]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - TSMC's CEO expressed frustration during a recent earnings call, indicating that despite investments and factory construction, there are still significant hurdles regarding IP transfer and operational expectations [1]. - The article mentions the need for local manufacturing solutions in China, particularly for GPUs, as a potential response to the current geopolitical climate, despite the challenges involved [1]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The article suggests that the U.S. has inadvertently created barriers that could allow for a reevaluation of trade relationships and the establishment of new supply chain ecosystems [1]. - The concept of "Local for local" is emphasized as a necessary strategy in the current chaotic global environment, indicating a shift towards localized manufacturing and supply chains [1].