证券分析师 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 2024 年 11 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|----------------------------------|-------| | | | | | 基础化工 | 叶酸价格大幅上涨，本轮行情有望超 | | | | | | | 优于大市（维持） | 预期 | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件：据百川盈孚，11 月 15 日，叶酸主流接单价上涨 5-15 元/公斤至 205-215 元 /公斤，部分高位报价上调至 220-230 元/公斤。本轮涨价之前市场主流接单价在 172-176 元/公斤左右，前期市场库存量较低，叶酸经销商市场报价大幅提升。 点评： 叶酸用途相对刚性，下游需求稳定增长。叶酸（又称维生素 B9）是生物健康所必 须的水溶性维生素，对包括细胞生长和发育、DNA 合成和红细胞生成等多种功能 至关重要，需求具备相对刚性。从需求结构来看，饲料行业是叶酸最大的下游应用 领域，占比约 43%，2019-2023 年，我国饲料产量从 2.17 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the intensifying competition in the technology sector between the US and China, particularly in high-tech areas such as semiconductors and AI, with potential implications for investment strategies [29]. - It notes that China's commercial space industry is catching up, with significant advancements in satellite launches and reduced costs expected in the near future [30]. - The report emphasizes the continuous breakthroughs in domestic supply chains and the establishment of overseas operations by major Chinese tech companies [31]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report discusses the potential impact of Trump's re-election on US-China relations, particularly regarding technology sanctions and the focus on high-tech sectors like commercial space and AI [29]. - It mentions that SpaceX has launched 6,700 satellites, with over 4,700 currently operational, highlighting the US's lead in low Earth orbit satellite deployment [30]. - The report indicates that China's satellite internet construction is entering a phase of regular launches, with significant improvements in launch capabilities and cost reductions anticipated [30][31]. Industry News - The Long March 8 rocket has completed its transition exercises and is set for its first launch at the Hainan commercial launch site, which will enhance China's launch capabilities [33]. - China Satcom has introduced a satellite internet product aimed at the consumer market, significantly lowering the barrier for satellite communication access [34]. - The deployment of drone stations on communication towers in Anhui province has shown promising results, supporting the development of low-altitude economy infrastructure [35]. - The Zhuhai Airshow showcased various products supporting commercial space and low-altitude economy, indicating strong industry growth [38]. Weekly Review and Recommended Portfolio - The communication sector experienced a decline of 2.37% this week, with a focus on investment opportunities in domestic computing power, satellite internet, and low-altitude economy sectors [39]. - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in domestic computing power, satellite internet, and low-altitude economy for potential investment opportunities [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of overall market value enhancement opportunities and the improvement of fundamentals in the photovoltaic sector [2] - The photovoltaic industry has experienced a significant increase in new installations, with a total of 160.88 GW added in the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.77% [3][15] - The report highlights the decline in prices across the photovoltaic supply chain, indicating a phase of bottoming out [6][8] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic and International Demand Review and Outlook - In the first nine months of 2024, domestic photovoltaic installations maintained growth, with 20.89 GW added in September alone, marking a 32.38% year-on-year increase [3][15] - The total new power generation capacity added in China during the same period was 242.58 GW, with photovoltaic installations accounting for 66.32% of this total [3][15] 2. Supply Side: Capacity Growth and Profit Decline - The report notes that the capacity across various segments of the photovoltaic supply chain continues to grow, with polysilicon production increasing by approximately 60.6% year-on-year [6] - Prices across the supply chain have been declining, with significant drops in polysilicon and solar cell prices, indicating a potential bottoming phase [6][7] 3. Valuation: PB at Bottom, High Margin of Safety - The report states that the photovoltaic sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at 2.28, which is at the lower end of the historical range, suggesting a high margin of safety for investors [9] 4. Policy: Supply and Demand Efforts to Stabilize Fundamentals - The report discusses recent policy initiatives aimed at preventing "involution" and promoting healthy competition within the photovoltaic industry, which are expected to support the sector's recovery [9][10] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with relatively high earnings certainty, such as Sungrow Power Supply, Longi Green Energy, and Trina Solar, as well as companies in the inverter segment [10]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In October, M2 growth rebounded to 7.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[19] - M1 decreased by 6.1%, but the decline narrowed by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[19] - New social financing in October was 1.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 448.3 billion yuan[15] Group 2: Loan and Financing Trends - New RMB loans in October amounted to 500 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 238.4 billion yuan[11] - Corporate short-term loans decreased by 190 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans increased by 170 billion yuan, reflecting weak corporate financing demand[13] - Residential loans increased, with short-term loans up by 490 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans up by 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating improved housing market sentiment[12] Group 3: Debt Management and Economic Impact - The government debt net financing in October was 1.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 514.2 billion yuan, indicating limited growth in government financing[15] - Debt management policies are expected to support government investment expansion and improve corporate cash flow through debt replacement[17] - The upcoming 2 trillion yuan local government debt limit is anticipated to enhance local debt issuance and support M1 growth[21]

Group 1: Social Financing and Government Debt - In October, the new social financing scale was 1,395.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 448.3 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 7.80%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Government bond financing decreased year-on-year due to the high base effect from last year's special refinancing bond issuance, with an increase of 1,049.6 billion CNY in October, down 514.2 billion CNY year-on-year[9] - The expected issuance of 2 trillion CNY for hidden debt replacement may begin at the end of the year, providing support for social financing[9] Group 2: Consumer and Corporate Lending - The credit balance growth rate for October fell by 0.1 percentage points to 8.00%, with a total increase of 500 billion CNY in new loans, down 238.4 billion CNY year-on-year[20] - Consumer lending showed signs of recovery, with short-term loans increasing by 49 billion CNY and medium to long-term loans increasing by 110 billion CNY, while corporate lending remained weak[20] - Corporate short-term and medium to long-term loans both underperformed seasonally, reflecting weak financing demand from enterprises[20] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Market Trends - M1 growth rate reversed its downward trend, rising to -6.10%, while M2 growth rate increased to 7.50%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[30] - The M2-M1 growth rate difference narrowed for the first time since April, indicating a potential shift in monetary dynamics[30] - The increase in non-bank deposits and fiscal deposits contributed to the rise in M2 growth, reflecting a shift in asset allocation preferences towards capital markets[31] Group 4: Market Outlook and Risks - Despite positive changes in the monetary environment, social financing growth has not stabilized, indicating a lag in policy transmission to financial stability[35] - The central bank may further lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25-0.5 percentage points, depending on market liquidity conditions[35] - Risks include potential tightening of monetary policy beyond expectations and significant market volatility due to large-scale redemption of wealth management products[36]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 医药生物 2024 年 11 月 11 日 医药生物 优于大市 (维持) 证券分析师 周新明 资格编号: S0120524060001 邮箱： zhouxm@tebon.com.cn 吴明年 资格编号: S0120524050002 邮箱: wumh3@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 医药生物 沪深300 26% 17% 9% 0% -9% -17% -26%28-11 -34% 数据来源： 聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《奕瑞科技(688301.SH): 业绩承 压，长期发展向好》, 2024.11.10 2.《普门科技(688389.SH): 海外 及 IVD 业务表现亮眼，净利率环比 改善》, 2024.11.6 3.《澳华内镜 24 年三季报点评:短 期业绩承压，看好后续招投标回暖 后业绩恢复高增长》, 2024.11.4 4.《医药行业周报： 2024 三季报总 结，化学制剂、原料药、血制品表 现较好》, 2024.11.3 5.《派林生物（000403.SZ）: 三季 皮业绩稳健增长,盈利能力持续提 升》, 2024.11.2 医药行业周报:并购重组的投资机 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electrical equipment industry [1]. Core Insights - The price of silicon materials remains stable while supply continues to decrease. The average transaction prices for N-type rod silicon, P-type monocrystalline dense silicon, and N-type granular silicon are 41,700 CNY/ton, 34,500 CNY/ton, and 37,300 CNY/ton respectively. The overall average price remains stable due to various factors including seasonal production cost increases and upcoming futures listings [2][15]. - The domestic photovoltaic (PV) installation maintained growth in the first nine months of 2024, with a total of 160.88 GW added, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.77%. The cumulative solar power generation capacity reached approximately 770 million kW, a 48.3% increase year-on-year [3][20]. Summary by Sections Silicon Material Prices - Silicon material prices have remained stable, with limited transactions due to reduced downstream operating rates and a shift in purchasing preferences towards more economical products. The current inventory level of silicon materials is around 350,000 tons, which puts pressure on prices [2][15]. Photovoltaic Installation Growth - In the first nine months of 2024, the newly added photovoltaic capacity was 160.88 GW, with September alone contributing 20.89 GW, marking a year-on-year growth of 32.38%. The total solar power generation capacity reached approximately 770 million kW by the end of September [3][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key areas for investment: 1. Integrated component companies with advantages in new battery technologies such as JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, and Trina Solar. 2. Companies in the battery segment with emerging technologies like Tongwei Co., Aiko Solar, and Yueda Co. 3. Silicon wafer companies with efficiency or volume growth potential such as TCL Zhonghuan and Shuangliang Eco-Energy. 4. Leading inverter companies benefiting from overall growth like Sungrow Power Supply and Deye Technology. 5. Energy storage battery suppliers including CATL and EVE Energy [4][5][29]. Industry Data Tracking - The report includes various industry data points, such as the average utilization hours for power generation equipment and investment trends in power generation and grid projects, indicating a robust investment environment in the energy sector [3][20]. Market Performance - The electrical equipment and new energy sectors saw a weekly increase of 5.80%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.30 percentage points. Specific segments like wind power and nuclear power showed significant growth, with respective increases of 7.24% and 10.46% [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Viewpoints - Current market concerns for cross-border e-commerce (retail) companies focus on tightening small package exemption policies and potential increases in destination country tariffs. The report suggests that small sellers relying on direct mail models will face higher compliance costs and complex customs processes, which may compress their profit margins [3][4]. - The report highlights that the importance of overseas warehousing will increase as tax advantages of direct mail diminish, particularly benefiting larger cross-border sellers with established overseas supply chains [3]. - The report recommends focusing on brands with lower dependency on the North American market and those with established overseas warehousing, such as Miniso, Zhiou Technology, Anker Innovations, and Saiwei Times [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes that the U.S. election results have heightened tariff concerns, particularly with the re-election of Trump, who has indicated potential tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports and up to 60% on goods from China [2]. Trade Policy Developments - The report outlines the historical context of the small package exemption policy in the U.S., which has evolved from a $200 limit to $800 in 2015, significantly benefiting platforms like Temu and Shein. Recent moves by the Biden administration indicate a tightening of these exemptions [4][11]. Company Announcements - Key company announcements include: - Jiajiashuo plans to distribute cash dividends of 1.10 yuan per 10 shares [6]. - Kid King completed the repurchase and cancellation of restricted stock involving 1.8274 million shares [6]. - Dazhi shares successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at an issue price of 15.6 HKD per share [6]. Industry News - Recent industry developments include the opening of new supermarket locations and the participation of brands like Pop Mart in major trade expos, indicating ongoing consumer engagement and market activity [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a more optimistic outlook for the consumer sector, emphasizing four key areas: 1. Beauty: Domestic brands are expected to perform well during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with companies like Juzhibio, Aimeirong, and Polaia recommended for investment [9]. 2. Overseas Expansion: The report anticipates a boost in overseas sales due to favorable conditions, recommending companies like Pop Mart and Miniso [9]. 3. Dining: The dining sector is expected to recover gradually, with a focus on leading companies like Haidilao and Yum China [15]. 4. Travel: The report notes a significant increase in travel during the National Day holiday, suggesting a recovery in the travel sector with companies like Trip.com and Jinjiang Hotels highlighted [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The implementation of a 10 trillion yuan debt resolution policy is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the chemical industry, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities [26]. - The recent policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and boosting demand for chemical products are anticipated to alleviate previous market concerns and enhance economic confidence [26]. - The report suggests that the chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by supply-side reforms and improved domestic supply conditions [26]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The debt resolution policy signifies a shift from emergency measures to proactive management of hidden debts, with a goal to reduce the total hidden debt to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028 [4][36]. - The policy is expected to save approximately 600 billion yuan in interest payments over five years, allowing local governments to focus on infrastructure and economic growth [4][36]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Longbai Group, and Yuxing Energy, as well as in the civil explosives sector [4][36]. 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 5.6% during the week of November 4-8, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.1% but underperforming the ChiNext Index by 3.8% [2][31]. - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 1.7%, lagging behind both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [2][31]. 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 426 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 399 stocks rose, with the top gainers including Lanfeng Biochemical (+39.4%) and Runpu Food (+39.1%) [33][34]. - The report notes significant declines in stocks such as Hengtian Hailong (-13.7%) and Chuanfa Longmang (-10.3%) [33][34]. 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report discusses the approval of a resolution to increase local government debt limits for replacing hidden debts, which is expected to support economic stability [3][35]. - The debt resolution policy is seen as a critical step in addressing fiscal challenges and enhancing the quality of financial assets, which will benefit the real economy [4][36]. 5. Product Price and Price Spread Analysis - The report provides insights into the price changes of various chemical products, highlighting significant increases in prices for liquid gas (+230.0%) and liquid hydrogen (+25.0%) [5]. - Conversely, products like R143a and zinc nitrate experienced notable price declines [5]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on core assets that have entered a long-term value zone, suggesting that chemical blue-chip stocks may see a recovery in valuation and profitability [6]. - It also highlights sectors with supply constraints that are likely to experience price elasticity, such as vitamins and refrigerants [6][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [6]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from improving domestic demand, particularly in the liquor segment, which has seen a 6.85% increase this week. The sector is currently at a fundamental bottom, with third-quarter revenue declines aiding inventory digestion. Future price increases are anticipated as policy effects take time to materialize [6][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The liquor sector is highlighted for its recovery potential due to improving domestic demand expectations. The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, among others [6][13]. 2. Market Review - The food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.78 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 9.35% from November 4 to November 8. All sub-sectors within food and beverage showed positive growth, with health products leading at +11.69% [21][22]. 3. Key Data Tracking - **Liquor Prices**: As of November 8, the price of Feitian Moutai (original box) was 2500 CNY, down 1.19% from November 1. The overall liquor production in September 2024 decreased by 9.90% year-on-year [30]. - **Beer Production**: In September 2024, beer production from large enterprises increased by 1.4% year-on-year to 2.904 million kiloliters [34]. - **Dairy Products**: The average price of fresh milk was 3.13 CNY/kg as of October 31, remaining stable compared to the previous week [36]. 4. Company Recommendations - **Liquor**: Recommended companies include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. - **Beer**: Focus on Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer, with a recommendation to pay attention to China Resources Beer. - **Soft Drinks**: Key companies include Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring. - **Condiments**: Highlight companies with improvement potential such as Haitian Flavoring and Zhongju Gaoxin. - **Dairy**: Recommendations include Yili and Mengniu. - **Restaurant Supply Chain**: Emphasis on resilient leading companies and those with potential for performance recovery, such as Anjuke Food and Qianwei Central Kitchen [19][8].