Investment Rating - Target price of $823.00, with a Hold rating [8][10] Core Viewpoints - Netflix's business model benefits from a two-sided network effect, creating a virtuous cycle between high-quality content and a large user base [1] - Despite competition from tech giants like Apple, Amazon, and Disney, Netflix maintains a leading position in terms of return on investment and profitability [1] - User engagement metrics remain strong, with an average daily usage time of 2 hours per paying user [1] - The ad-supported subscription plan is highly attractive, with ad revenue expected to become a more significant income source by 2026 [1] - Revenue CAGR is projected at 15% from 2023 to 2026, with EPS CAGR at 32% [1] Financial Performance Summary 2024Q3 Performance - Revenue increased by 15% YoY to $9.825 billion, exceeding the company's guidance of 14% [1] - Net subscriber additions reached 5.07 million, bringing the total global user base to 283 million, a 14% YoY increase [1] - Operating margin rose by 7.2 percentage points to 29.6%, surpassing the guidance of 28.1% [1] - Diluted EPS was $5.40, higher than the guidance of $5.10 [1] - The company repurchased 2.6 million shares for $1.7 billion, with $3.1 billion remaining in the current buyback program [1] - Ad-supported user base grew by 35% QoQ, with over 50% of new users in ad-supported regions [1] 2024Q4 Guidance - Revenue is expected to grow by 15% YoY to $10.128 billion, with user growth exceeding 5.07 million [1] - Operating margin is projected at 21.6%, with diluted EPS of $4.23 [1] 2024 and 2025 Guidance - 2024 revenue is expected to grow by 14-15%, with an operating margin of 27% [1] - Free cash flow is projected to be between $6.0-6.5 billion [1] - 2025 revenue is expected to grow by 11-13%, with an operating margin of 28% [1] Valuation and Financial Metrics - DCF valuation assumes a WACC of 9.0% and a long-term growth rate of 3.0%, resulting in a target price of $823.00 [8][10] - Current price implies P/E multiples of 41x, 34x, and 29x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8] Regional Performance - North America: Revenue grew by 16% YoY, driven by a 10% increase in members and a 5% rise in ARPU [4] - EMEA: Revenue grew by 16% YoY, primarily driven by new user additions [4] - APAC: Revenue grew by 19% YoY [4] - LATAM: Revenue grew by 9% YoY, with negative net user additions in Q3 but recovery expected in Q4 [4] Ad-Supported Business - Ad-supported monthly active users reached 70 million globally [1] - Ad sales contracts grew by over 150% YoY [4] - Netflix's proprietary ad tech platform is set to launch in Canada in Q4 2024 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Microsoft (MSFT) with a target price of $500, reflecting an 18.2% upside potential from the current price [1][16]. Core Insights - Microsoft reported a revenue of $65.6 billion for the quarter, a 16% year-over-year increase, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of $64.5 billion [1][3]. - The company's GAAP net profit was $24.7 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, also exceeding consensus expectations [1][3]. - Azure revenue grew by 33% year-over-year to $16.8 billion, with AI contributing 12 percentage points to this growth [1][3]. - The commercial order volume for Microsoft Cloud increased by 30% year-over-year, indicating strong demand despite supply constraints [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was $65.6 billion, up 16% year-over-year, with product revenue at $15.3 billion (down 2%) and service revenue at $50.3 billion (up 23%) [1][3]. - Gross margin was 69.4%, a decrease of 180 basis points year-over-year, while operating margin was 46.6%, down 100 basis points [1][3]. - GAAP diluted earnings per share were $3.30, exceeding expectations of $3.11 [1][3]. Cloud Business - Azure revenue increased by 33% year-over-year to $16.8 billion, with AI contributing significantly to this growth [1][3]. - Microsoft Cloud revenue grew by 22% year-over-year to $38.9 billion, with commercial orders up 30% year-over-year [1][3]. M365 and Productivity - M365 commercial cloud revenue rose 15% year-over-year to $18.2 billion, driven by an 8% increase in paid commercial seats and higher ARPU [1][3]. - The daily active users of M365 Copilot doubled compared to the previous quarter, with nearly 70% of Fortune 500 companies now using it [1][3]. Future Guidance - Microsoft expects revenue for FY2025 Q2 to be between $67.8 billion and $69.1 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 9.8% to 11.4% [1][3]. - The long-term growth rate is projected at 3%, with a WACC of 8.5% used for DCF valuation [1][16]. Market Position - Microsoft continues to face competition in the cloud computing market, particularly from AWS and GCP, but its Azure business is expected to benefit from AI service demand [1][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to TAL Education Group (TAL) with a target price of **$14.9**, representing a **48.1% upside** from the current price [4] Core Views - TAL's FY25Q2 results exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in quality education and learning device businesses [2] - Revenue for FY25Q2 reached **$619 million**, up **50.4% YoY**, beating market expectations by **6.3 percentage points** [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit was **$64.52 million**, up **22.5% YoY**, with a margin of **10.4%** [2] - Non-GAAP net profit reached **$74.33 million**, up **25.4% YoY**, with a margin of **12.0%** [2] - The company ended the quarter with **$3.45 billion** in cash and short-term investments, with no bank debt [2] Business Performance Education Business - Education and training accounted for **~70%** of total revenue, growing over **45% YoY** [3] - Quality education contributed **~50%** of education revenue, growing **~70% YoY** [3] - High school education accounted for **~15%**, showing stable growth [3] - The company added **over 400 offline learning centers** in FY25Q2, with full-year capacity expansion expected to grow **50% YoY** [3] Content Solutions - Content solutions accounted for **~25%** of revenue, growing **over 50% YoY**, driven by learning device sales [3] - The company launched the **xPad Classic 2024** priced at **$450-500** and a lower-priced practice device, expanding its product line [3] - Learning device sales reached **~150,000 units** in the quarter, with a **weekly active rate of 80%** [3] Financial Outlook - For FY25Q3, revenue is expected to grow **39% YoY** to **$520 million**, with continued strong growth in non-academic training and learning devices [3] - The company's profitability is expected to improve as upfront investments in various businesses gradually taper off [4] Valuation - The target price of **$14.9** is based on a DCF valuation with a **WACC of 11%** and a **long-term growth rate of 3%** [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from a stabilizing regulatory environment and continued market demand for education services [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Coinbase Global with a target price of $350.00 per share [1][8][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a long-term diversification of revenue for Coinbase, with expectations that subscription and service revenue will exceed $2 billion this year [7][12]. - Recent performance in the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, has been strong, positively impacting Coinbase's outlook [8][10][12]. - The board has authorized a stock buyback plan of up to $1 billion, supported by significant cash resources on the balance sheet [7][12]. Summary by Sections Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, Coinbase reported revenue of $1.2 billion, a 17% decrease from the previous quarter but a 104% year-over-year increase, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.26 billion [2][4]. - Net profit increased from $36 million in Q2 to $75.5 million in Q3, with adjusted EBITDA at $449 million, below the expected $469.2 million [2][4]. - Total trading revenue was $573 million, down 27% quarter-over-quarter, with retail revenue accounting for approximately 40% of total revenue [2][4]. Revenue Breakdown - Subscription and service revenue decreased by 7% to $556 million, representing about 49% of total revenue, primarily due to a decline in average cryptocurrency prices [2][4]. - Total operating expenses were $1 billion, a 6% decrease from the previous quarter, with technology and development, general and administrative, and sales and marketing expenses totaling $870 million, up 3% [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that subscription and service revenue will be impacted by factors such as a 10% decline in Ethereum prices and decreasing interest rates [7][12]. - Projected technology and development expenses for Q4 are expected to be between $690 million and $730 million, while sales and marketing expenses are projected to be between $170 million and $220 million [7][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted to reach $5.1 billion, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years [14]. - The report indicates a projected net profit of $1.28 billion for 2024, with continued growth anticipated in the following years [14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - Tencent Holdings (700) is expected to announce its Q3 2024 financial results on November 13, 2024, with a subsequent earnings call at 20:00 Beijing time [1] - Visible Alpha consensus estimates Q3 2024 revenue at 167 billion RMB, an 8% YoY increase [1] - Value-added services are expected to contribute 82.3 billion RMB, up 8.71% YoY [1] - Advertising revenue is projected to rise 15.18% YoY to 29.6 billion RMB, driven by video accounts [1] - Cloud and fintech revenues are anticipated to reach 53.5 billion RMB, a 2.75% YoY increase [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to grow 19.55% YoY to approximately 53.7 billion RMB [1] Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services: 82.3 billion RMB, +8.71% YoY [1] - Advertising: 29.6 billion RMB, +15.18% YoY [1] - Cloud and fintech: 53.5 billion RMB, +2.75% YoY [1] Gaming Segment - Tencent's evergreen gaming strategy continues to drive growth, with AI enhancing monetization efficiency [1] - Domestic games like Peacekeeper Elite maintain 100 million users, while DNF remains stable on the game bestseller list [1] - Overseas games, including the overseas version of Honor of Kings, performed well, ranking in the top three on Sensor Tower's China mobile game overseas market download list in July [1] - New game Delta Action reached 25 million registered users within a week of its launch in late September [1] Advertising Business - Advertising revenue is expected to benefit from the rapid development and operational optimization of video accounts [1] - AI technology is enhancing the efficiency of Tencent's advertising 3.0 platform, supporting high gross margins in the advertising business [1] Cloud and Fintech - Cloud business is focusing on operational efficiency and cost reduction while pursuing high-quality growth [1] - Fintech is expected to see increased demand due to the rising market environment for large models and the commercialization progress of projects like mini-programs [1] - The interconnection between WeChat Pay and Taobao Tmall starting in September is anticipated to significantly boost Q4 2024 and 2025 technical service fees [1] Overall Outlook - The company's overall revenue is expected to improve, with continued cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1] - Sales and management expense ratios are lower than expected, with promising data from video accounts anticipated [1] - Management is expected to provide further insights during the earnings call regarding new game releases and future commercialization strategies [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 48.96, equivalent to 14 times the expected EV/EBITDA for 2025 [1]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with a net revenue increase of 10.5% year-on-year, although it decreased by 2.3% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The introduction of smart gaming tables and the launch of new products are expected to help the company regain market share, which is estimated to exceed 20% [1][2]. - The company has a strong balance sheet and management execution capabilities, contributing to confidence in its long-term development [1]. Financial Summary - Total net revenue for 2022 was HKD 11,474 million, with a significant increase to HKD 35,683.6 million in 2023, and projected revenues of HKD 43,358.2 million for 2024 [2]. - EBITDA for 2023 was HKD 9,955 million, with forecasts of HKD 12,278.2 million for 2024 and HKD 14,220.4 million for 2025, indicating a growth trend [2]. - Net profit for 2023 was HKD 6,828 million, with projections of HKD 9,166.4 million for 2024 and HKD 10,301.6 million for 2025, reflecting a positive outlook [2]. Operational Highlights - The company's EBITDA margin is expected to improve, with rates projected at 28.3% for 2024 and 29.9% for 2025 [2]. - The occupancy rates for the "Galaxy Macau™" and StarWorld Hotel were reported at 98% and 100%, respectively, indicating strong demand [1]. - The company plans to continue expanding its offerings, including the development of new hotel brands and entertainment facilities [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong investment rating to Duolingo, highlighting its robust financial performance in Q3 2024 [1]. Core Insights - Duolingo's total bookings reached $211 million in Q3 2024, with subscription bookings contributing $176 million and non-subscription bookings at $35.1 million [1]. - Total revenue for the quarter was $193 million, with subscription revenue at $158 million and advertising revenue at $129 million [1]. - The company reported a gross profit of $140 million, maintaining a healthy gross margin of 72.9% [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA was $47.5 million, reflecting a profit margin of 24.7%, indicating strong growth in profitability [1]. User Growth Performance - Daily Active Users (DAU) grew by 54% year-over-year, reaching 37.2 million, showcasing effective user acquisition and retention strategies [1]. - Monthly Active Users (MAU) also saw a significant increase of 36% to 113 million, indicating successful efforts in enhancing user experience and engagement [1]. - The proportion of family plan users increased from 18% to 21%, reflecting growing market interest in this subscription service [1]. International Market Expansion - Duolingo plans to expand into Italy and Turkey after successful operations in Japan, South Korea, and France, employing localized marketing strategies to attract diverse users [1]. Financial Guidance - For the full year, Duolingo expects bookings and revenue to grow by approximately 36% and 40%, respectively [1]. - Q4 bookings are projected to reach $247 million, a 29% year-over-year increase, with revenue expected at $205 million, a 36% increase [1]. - The company anticipates a slight decline in gross margin due to increased costs associated with the expansion of Duolingo Max and its generative AI features [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for 2024 has been raised to 25.5%, up approximately 8 percentage points from 2023, moving towards a long-term target of 30% to 35% [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $33.75 / HKD 132.16, indicating an upside potential of 31.80% / 37.60% from the current price [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2024 vehicle sales revenue of RMB 41.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.3%. Total vehicle deliveries reached 153,000 units, up 45.4% year-on-year. The vehicle gross margin improved to 20.9% [1]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 2.81 billion, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year. The new product L6 significantly boosted overall sales, achieving an average monthly sales volume of 25,000 units, increasing the market share in the domestic new energy vehicle segment priced above RMB 200,000 from 14.4% in Q2 2024 to 17.3% in Q3 2024 [1]. - The company plans to enhance L6 production capacity in Q4 2024 and has guided for Q4 deliveries of 160,000 to 170,000 units, with revenue guidance of RMB 43.2 billion to RMB 45.9 billion [1]. Financial Performance - The R&D expense ratio for Q3 2024 was 6%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year and 3.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The SG&A expense ratio was 7.8%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company has launched a new autonomous driving technology architecture and conducted large-scale testing, with 70% of users opting for the AD max version in over 300,000 delivered vehicles [1]. - The company is preparing for the launch of pure electric models, with 479 retail centers and 436 after-sales service centers across 145 cities, and has established 894 supercharging stations with 4,286 charging piles [1]. Future Projections - The report forecasts vehicle sales of 515,000 units, 718,000 units, and 944,000 units for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with revenues of RMB 147.5 billion, RMB 191.6 billion, and RMB 221.3 billion. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 7.84 billion, RMB 12.99 billion, and RMB 16.75 billion for the same years [1].

盈利摘要 股价表现 财务年度截至12月31日 2022历史 2023历史 2024预测 2025预测 2026预测 营业总收入(百万元) 127,554 150,560 173,697 191,815 211,229 变动(%) 16.9% 19.0% 15.4% 10.4% 10.1% 归母净利润(百万元) 62,717 74,734 86,441 95,924 106,059 变动(%) 19.6% 19.2% 15.7% 11.0% 10.6% 基本每股收益(元) 49.93 59.49 68.81 76.36 84.43 市盈率@1,610.0元(倍) 32.2 27.1 23.4 21.1 19.1 每股股息(元) 47.8 50.0 51.6 57.3 63.3 股息现价比（%） 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.9% 来源: 公司资料, 第一上海预测 来源：彭博 贵州茅台（600519） 更新报告 中期分红发布，静待政策催化需求改善 兑现中期分红规划：公司发布利润分配预案，拟派发中期红利每股 23.882 元（含 税），合计总金额为 300 亿元，相当于公司 2024 年中期利润的 7 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Palantir (PLTR.US) following its strong performance and inclusion in the S&P 500 [1]. Core Insights - Palantir reported Q3 2024 total revenue of approximately $726 million, a year-over-year increase of 30%, exceeding market expectations [1]. - Government customer revenue reached about $408 million, up 33% year-over-year, with a significant increase in average revenue per customer [1]. - Commercial customer revenue was approximately $317 million, a 27% year-over-year increase, although average revenue per customer saw a slight decline [1]. - The total number of customers increased to 629, reflecting a 39% year-over-year growth [1]. - The company announced a strategic partnership with Microsoft, enhancing its government business potential [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 operating profit margin was 15.59%, an increase of 8.43 percentage points year-over-year [1]. - Net profit for the quarter was $149 million, a 103% year-over-year increase [1]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter were $788 million, with adjusted free cash flow of $435 million [1]. - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue to be in the range of $767 to $771 million, with adjusted operating profit projected between $298 to $302 million [1]. Future Outlook - For the full year 2024, Palantir anticipates total revenue between $2.805 billion and $2.809 billion, with U.S. commercial revenue expected to exceed $687 million, representing at least a 50% year-over-year growth [1]. - The report highlights significant growth potential in the government sector, particularly in AI applications within defense budgets [1].