6 李宁（2331） 更新报告 买入 2024年03月26日 2023年全年业绩符合预期；库存周转和 零售折扣在改善 王柏俊  2023 年全年业绩概况：公司录得收入 276 亿元人民币（下同），同比 增 长 7% 。 自 营 零 售 / 批 发 / 电 商 / 海 外 业 务 分 别 增 长 852-25321915 29.6%/0.6%/0.9%/16.6%。品类来看：跑步增长最好+40% (三大核心IP patrick.wong@firstshanghai.com.hk 累计销量破 900 万双), 健身增长 25%, 篮球及运动生活都是持平。毛 主要数据 利率维持稳定在48.4%；线下直营店铺的折扣是有所改善，但电商渠道 毛利率随线上竞争环境的加剧被拉低。经营开支比率增加 4.9pct 到 行业 服装纺织 37.5%(主要受租金，直接销售人员工资奖金，广告宣传及赞助和研发 股价 20.20港元 开支增加，在高级市场布局和部分亏损店铺计提资产减值的影响)。经 营利润和股东应占净利润分别减少 27.2%和 21.6%%到 35.6 及 31.9 亿 目标价 25.28港元 元。经营利润率和股东应占净利润 ...

康方生物-B（9926） 更新报告 买入 20 24 年3月25日 研发管线高效推进，逐渐进入商业化收获期 但玉翠  23 年不考虑 BD 公司净亏损收窄 45%至 7.9 亿元：2023 年公司产品销售总收入 852-25321956 16.3 亿元，其中卡度尼利（PD-1/CTLA-4）销售收入 13.6 亿元，同比增加 149%； tracy.dan@firstshanghai.com.hk 派安普利单抗（PD-1）销售收入同比下降51%至2.7亿元。由于23年1月公司以总 价50亿美元授权summit公司AK112(PD-1/VEGF)海外发达国家的独家权益，目前5 高小迪 亿美元首付款已经到账，23 年计入 29.2 亿元产品及许可费销售额。扣除派安普利 分销成本后，公司23年录得收入同比增长440%至45.3亿元。公司23年毛利43.9 852 2532 1960 亿元，其中产品毛利 15.0 亿元，产品毛利率高达 91.8%。23 年公司研发开支下降 xiaodi.gao@firstshanghai.com.hk 5%至12.6亿元，销售费用增长61%至8.9亿元，产品销售费用率从去年的75% ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Mobile [3] Core Views - China Mobile's revenue has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, achieving a record high in profit, with a revenue of 1,009.3 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [3] - The company aims to increase its dividend payout ratio to over 75% within the next three years, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 71% for 2023 [3] - The report highlights the continuous optimization of revenue structure and strong growth in various segments, including personal market revenue and enterprise market revenue [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 937,259 million yuan, with a projected increase to 1,068,640 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.9% [7] - Net profit for 2022 was 125,459 million yuan, expected to rise to 141,007 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.0% [7] - The report forecasts an increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 6.35 yuan in 2022 to 7.14 yuan in 2024 [7] - The company’s EBITDA for 2023 is projected at 341.5 billion yuan, with an EBITDA margin of 39.5% [3][11] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditure for 2023 is reported at 180.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [3] - Free cash flow is expected to improve, with a focus on returning value to shareholders through increased dividends [3] Market Position and Growth - China Mobile has a strong market presence with 990 million mobile users, including 180 million 5G subscribers [3] - The company is expanding its cloud services and digital content offerings, with significant growth in enterprise market revenue [3][11] Valuation - The report sets a target price of 80 Hong Kong dollars for China Mobile, maintaining a buy rating based on the company's strong governance and growth potential [3]

貝殼（2423.HK/BEKE.US） 更新報告 買入 2024年3月25日 23Q4 業績穩健，二賽道業務規模效率雙提升，積極回饋股東 羅凡環  2023Q4 經調整淨利潤同比增長 10.8%，全年經調整淨利潤 98 億元： 2023年第四季度公司總交易額為7356億元，同比增加13.7%。期內公司錄 852-25321962 得淨收入 202 億元，同比及環比分別增長 13.5%及 20.6%。期內毛利率為 25.5%，同比提升1.1個百分點，主要由於存量房業務的淨收入增加及鏈家 simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 經紀人的固定薪酬成本減少，使得存量房業務的貢獻利潤率提高，以及門 店成本占淨收入的比例相比 2022 年同期有所降低。期內經營虧損為 1.73 主要資料 億元，主要由於 1）新房開發商壞賬計提；2）額外的業績激勵；3）經營 行業 居住服務 利潤率較低的家裝家居業務及租房業務收入占比增加。期內經調整淨利潤 為 17.1 億元，同比增長 10.8%。2023 年全年淨收入 778 億元，同比增加 股價 36.1港元/14.03美元 28.2%，調整後淨利潤98億元，同比 ...

6 特步国际（1368） 更新报告 买入 2024年03月25日 2023年全年业绩符合预期, 库存恢复到正常水平 王柏俊  2023 年全年业绩概况：公司收入同比增长 10.9%至 143.5 亿元(人民币,同下)，受益于所 有业务的增长， 尤其是内地业务。鞋类增长 5.3%, 服装类增长 20.6%。毛利率增加 852-25321915 1 .3pct到42.2%; 主要受益于功能产品的需求增长（其利润率较高）及时尚运动业务毛利 patrick.wong@firstshanghai.com.hk 率的明显提升。SG&A 费用率增加了 2.2 pct 至 34.2%,因为广告及推广费用和研发费用分 别 增加27.5%及33.1% (其比率分别提升1.8pct和0.5pct到13.7%和2.8%) 。经营利润 和归母净利润同比增长 7.9%及 11.8%至到 15.8 及 10.3 亿元, 归母净利润率为 7.2%；业 主要数据 绩符合预期。集团宣布派发末期股息每股 8 港仙，派息率为 50%。经营现金流同比增长 行业 服装纺织 119.5%到12.6亿元。库存金额减少21.6%到17.9亿元，恢复到正常水 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tong Ren Tang Guo Yao (3613) with a target price of HKD 12.99, indicating a potential upside of 38.0% from the current price [1][3]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue from mainland China in 2023, with a total revenue of HKD 1.3 billion, down 70.2% year-on-year, primarily due to high inventory levels from previous stockpiling by distributors [1]. - Despite the challenges in mainland sales, the company is expected to recover in 2024 as inventory levels normalize and marketing efforts are intensified [1]. - The company is expanding its product offerings and sales channels, including the introduction of new specifications and categories for its Lingzhi spore powder products, and enhancing cooperation with marketing firms in Hong Kong and overseas [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of HKD 1.3 billion from mainland China, a decrease of 70.2% year-on-year, while Hong Kong sales increased by 10.8% to HKD 9.2 billion, and overseas sales reached HKD 4.8 billion, up 1.8% [1]. - The overall gross margin improved by 2.3 percentage points to 68.7%, while net profit decreased by 4.6% to HKD 590 million, resulting in a net profit margin of 35.4% [1]. Product and Market Expansion - The company is focusing on the recovery of its Lingzhi spore powder sales as inventory is depleted and competition issues are resolved [1]. - New product registrations in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia are expected to enhance market presence and drive sales growth [1]. - The company is also developing flagship stores and marketing initiatives in Macau and Hong Kong to promote its products [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 370 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 52.97% from the current price of 242.4 HKD [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with total revenue and other income reaching 20.516 billion HKD, an increase of 11.16% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.862 billion HKD, up 17.70% year-on-year, marking the second-highest profit in history. The increase in performance was primarily driven by a significant rise in investment income from margin and clearing house funds [1]. - Despite the overall revenue growth, the average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market decreased by 16% year-on-year, leading to a decline in the company's main business revenue by 8.79% to 15.445 billion HKD [1]. - Investment income saw a substantial increase, with net investment income rising by 265.71% to 4.959 billion HKD, benefiting from higher interest rates on HKD and USD deposits [1]. - The Hong Kong stock market is showing signs of recovery, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 6% in February 2024, suggesting potential valuation recovery and enhanced liquidity in the market [1]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of 20.516 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%. The net profit for the same period was 11.862 billion HKD, reflecting a 17.7% increase [4]. - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 21.587 billion HKD, 22.664 billion HKD, and 25.079 billion HKD, respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same years are 12.410 billion HKD, 13.057 billion HKD, and 14.160 billion HKD [2][4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 9.4 HKD, with projections of 9.8 HKD for 2024 and 10.3 HKD for 2025 [4][8].

宏观经济评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Unicom with a target price of HKD 7.6, reflecting a focus on improving income quality and operational efficiency [2][4]. Core Insights - China Unicom is entering a phase of "quality improvement, efficiency enhancement, and shareholder return," with an emphasis on profit release rather than just revenue growth [2]. - The company has achieved a historical high in dividend payout ratio, reaching 55% [1]. - The report indicates that 2023 marks a turning point for 5G capital expenditures, with expectations of continued decline in capital spending and improvement in free cash flow [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the year 2023, China Unicom reported total revenue of RMB 372.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with service revenue also at RMB 335.2 billion, reflecting the same growth rate [1]. - EBITDA reached RMB 99.8 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 18.7 billion, up 11.8% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) improved to 5.4%, marking a recent high [1]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditures for 2023 totaled RMB 73.9 billion, lower than the previous target of RMB 76.9 billion, with a planned reduction of 12% for 2024 [1]. - Free cash flow for the year was RMB 28.5 billion, representing an 8.3% increase year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - Traditional core business revenue was RMB 244.6 billion, growing by 3.1% year-on-year, accounting for three-quarters of the main business [1]. - The mobile user base reached 333 million, with a net addition of 10.6 million users, and a 5G package penetration rate of 78% [1]. - The digital business segment, particularly the industrial internet, generated RMB 75.3 billion in revenue, a 12.9% increase year-on-year, contributing significantly to new service revenue [1]. Dividend Policy - The total dividend for the year was RMB 0.3366 per share, a 22.8% increase year-on-year, significantly higher than the net profit growth rate [1]. - The report anticipates that the dividend payout ratio will gradually increase to 70% in the future [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 21, indicating a potential upside of 52% from the current price of HKD 13.8 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit growth of 22.2% in 2023, with sales revenue reaching RMB 34.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. The annual sales volume of electric two-wheelers was 16.52 million units, marking an 18% growth and increasing market share to 30.2% [1][3]. - The company has significantly enhanced its core technology capabilities, investing RMB 1.19 billion in R&D in 2023. It continues to lead the market with its graphene lead-acid batteries and has introduced its first-generation sodium-ion battery [1]. - The company is implementing a channel upgrade strategy called "4728," which aims to improve the quality of channel operations through various measures, including retail pricing and product structure optimization [1]. - The overseas market is experiencing rapid growth, with plans to increase production capacity in Vietnam to 2 million units by 2025 and to establish 8-10 bases in South America over the next five years [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the company is projected to achieve sales revenues of RMB 38.58 billion, RMB 42.01 billion, and RMB 45.73 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 8.9%, and 8.9% respectively. Net profits for the same period are expected to be RMB 3.23 billion, RMB 3.75 billion, and RMB 4.29 billion, with growth rates of 22.2%, 16.3%, and 14.1% respectively [1][3][4]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 18 times for 2024, with a corresponding target price of HKD 21, indicating significant growth potential [1][2].