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招商积余(001914):营收业绩双增,基础物管毛利率改善
Orient Securities· 2025-04-15 04:05
招商积余 001914.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 买入 (维持) | | --- | --- | | 股价(2025年04月14日) | 12.26 元 | | 目标价格 | 14.04 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 13.33/8.16 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(万股) | 106,035/106,034 | | A 股市值(百万元) | 13,000 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 房地产 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 15 日 | 1 周 1 月 3 月 12 月 绝对表现% 8.88 13.1 24.21 29.93 相对表现% 4.15 19.28 25.82 21.78 沪深 300% 4.73 -6.18 -1.61 8.15 赵旭翔 zhaoxuxiang@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号:S0860521070001 | sunyixuan@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | | 孙怡萱 | 业绩稳健,非住业态优势显著 2024-03-21 营收业绩双增,基础物管毛利率改善 核心观点 事件:公司 ...
诺唯赞(688105):2024年报点评:利润端承压,海外业务高增长
Orient Securities· 2025-04-14 11:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.59 CNY [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing pressure on profitability, but its overseas business is growing rapidly. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.378 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [2][9]. - The company has narrowed its losses significantly, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -0.18 billion CNY in 2024, a reduction of 74.5% compared to the previous year [9]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, achieving a 121.85% increase in overseas revenue, amounting to 1.01 billion CNY [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 1.286 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 1.802 billion CNY in 2025, representing a growth rate of 30.8% [5][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 69.9% in 2024 to 76.4% in 2025 [5][11]. - The net profit margin is projected to turn positive by 2025, reaching 8.6% [5][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to recover from -0.05 CNY in 2024 to 0.39 CNY in 2025 [5][11].
AI周度跟踪2025年第6期:阿里AI势能大会召开,加强AI agent布局
Orient Securities· 2025-04-14 10:23
传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 阿里 AI 势能大会召开,加强 AI agent 布局 ——AI 周度跟踪 2025 年第 6 期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 看好 AI 新周期带动算力-算法-应用生态三端依次持续推进,我们建议增加港股互联 网板块配置仓位,核心推荐处于产业链前端,云消费弹性明显+算法具备优势的阿 里巴巴-W(09988,买入),多模态视频生成模型技术全球领先的快手-W(01024,买 入),以及卡位最佳社交场景,具备数据+应用生态优势的腾讯控股(00700,买 入)。 风险提示 行业发展及 AI 应用落地不及预期,宏观经济风险,海外政策风险。 | | 看好(维持) | | --- | --- | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 传媒行业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 14 日 | | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号:S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照:BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325 ...
常宝股份2024年报点评:高端项目蓄势待发,业绩改善前景可期
Orient Securities· 2025-04-14 10:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.14 CNY based on a 2025 PE valuation of 11X [2][5][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in performance due to ongoing high-end project developments and a favorable outlook for downstream demand in the oil and gas sector [1][9]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, predicting earnings per share of 0.74, 0.83, and 0.92 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.99 and 1.10 CNY for 2025 and 2026 [2][10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 56.96 billion CNY, a decrease of 14.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.34 billion CNY, down 19.0% [9]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed a significant improvement, with a net profit of 2.23 billion CNY, reflecting a 161.08% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 38.04% increase year-on-year [9]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 16.76%, with a slight improvement in the fourth quarter to 17.45% [9]. - The projected financials for 2025-2027 include revenues of 61.94 billion CNY, 69.14 billion CNY, and 74.25 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.69 billion CNY, 7.51 billion CNY, and 8.32 billion CNY [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end product development, particularly in specialized oil casing pipes and high-performance boiler tubes, which are expected to see increased demand due to global energy security strategies [9]. - The company is advancing its high-end projects, with several key product lines entering trial production phases, which are anticipated to contribute positively to future earnings [9].
中国飞鹤:产品结构提升,公司重视股东回报-20250414
Orient Securities· 2025-04-14 10:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.52, based on a calculated equity value of RMB 634 billion [2][9][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a focus on enhancing product structure and shareholder returns, with a significant dividend payout of RMB 27.5 billion and a dividend payout ratio of 78% [8]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 20.75 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 3.57 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year [4][8]. - The company is experiencing a strong performance in its premium product lines, particularly the "卓睿" brand, which is expected to see sales growth exceeding 60% [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: RMB 21.61 billion (2025E), RMB 22.99 billion (2026E), and RMB 24.31 billion (2027E), with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.1%, 6.4%, and 5.7% [4]. - The forecasted earnings per share for 2025-2027 are RMB 0.44, RMB 0.47, and RMB 0.51, respectively [2][9]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 67.1% by 2025, while the net profit margin is projected to reach 18.6% [4][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes the FCFF valuation method, resulting in a calculated equity value of RMB 634 billion, translating to a target price of HKD 7.52 [2][9]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 15.4 in 2023 to 11.3 by 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [4][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with a 62.87% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [6].
AI周度跟踪2025年第6期:阿里AI势能大会召开,加强AIagent布局-20250414
Orient Securities· 2025-04-14 09:29
传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 阿里 AI 势能大会召开,加强 AI agent 布局 ——AI 周度跟踪 2025 年第 6 期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 看好 AI 新周期带动算力-算法-应用生态三端依次持续推进,我们建议增加港股互联 网板块配置仓位,核心推荐处于产业链前端,云消费弹性明显+算法具备优势的阿 里巴巴-W(09988,买入),多模态视频生成模型技术全球领先的快手-W(01024,买 入),以及卡位最佳社交场景,具备数据+应用生态优势的腾讯控股(00700,买 入)。 风险提示 行业发展及 AI 应用落地不及预期,宏观经济风险,海外政策风险。 | | 看好(维持) | | --- | --- | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 传媒行业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 14 日 | | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号:S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照:BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325 ...
中国飞鹤(06186):产品结构提升,公司重视股东回报
Orient Securities· 2025-04-14 09:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.52, based on a calculated equity value of RMB 634 billion [2][9][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 20.75 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 3.57 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year. The company has a strong focus on shareholder returns, with a dividend payout of RMB 2.75 billion and a dividend yield of 6% [8][9]. - The product structure has improved, with significant growth in high-end products, particularly the "Zhuo Rui" brand, which saw sales increase by over 60%. The company is also diversifying its product offerings to drive revenue growth [8][9]. - The gross margin improved to 66.3%, benefiting from lower raw milk prices and enhanced product structure, although the net margin slightly decreased to 17.2% due to reduced government subsidies [8][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 21.61 billion, RMB 22.99 billion, and RMB 24.31 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 4.1%, 6.4%, and 5.7% [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 0.44, RMB 0.47, and RMB 0.51 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][9]. - The company’s financial ratios indicate a gross margin of 67.1% in 2025, a net margin of 18.6%, and a return on equity (ROE) of 13.6% [4][8].
常宝股份(002478):2024年报点评:高端项目蓄势待发,业绩改善前景可期
Orient Securities· 2025-04-14 05:38
高端项目蓄势待发,业绩改善前景可期 ——常宝股份 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 2024 年报,我们做出下调公司钢管产品销量、小幅下调公司产品毛利率等 调整,预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 0.74、0.83、0.92 元(2025-2026 年原预 测值为 0.99、1.10 元)。根据可比公司 2025 年 11X 的 PE 估值,对应目标价 8.14 元,维持买入评级。 风险提示 下游油气及火电资本开支不及预期风险、汽车精密管及特材项目释放不及预期风险、原 材料价格波动风险、汇率大幅波动及出口环境变化风险、宏观经济不及预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 6,661 | 5,696 | 6,194 | 6,914 | 7,425 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.0% | -14.5% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 7.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 852 | 76 ...
固定收益市场周观察:利率方向回归下行后,幅度取决于资金
Orient Securities· 2025-04-14 05:12
固定收益 | 动态跟踪 固定收益市场周观察 利率方向回归下行后,幅度取决于资金 风险提示 政策变化超预期;货币政策变化超预期;经济基本面变化超预期;信用风险暴露超预 期;数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 14 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号:S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860523080003 | | 转债市场 25 年一季度回顾及展望 | 2025-04-08 | | --- | --- | | 4 月或是供给压力缓和期:固定收益市场 | 2025-04-08 | | 周观察 | | | 2025Q1 信用债市场回顾与展望 | 2025-04-07 | 有关分析师的申明,见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分,或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研 ...
继续关注内需及国产替代新材料机会
Orient Securities· 2025-04-14 03:18
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic demand and opportunities for domestic substitution of new materials. It highlights the recent exemption of certain tariffs in the U.S., which has led to a noticeable reduction in oil price declines. The report suggests a focus on leading companies with strong fundamentals that are less correlated with oil prices, recommending bottom-fishing strategies. Additionally, it advises attention to the agricultural chemical sector due to its rigid demand during the spring farming season [13][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the U.S. has exempted some tariffs, leading to a significant narrowing of oil price declines. It recommends focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals and less correlation to oil prices, while also suggesting bottom-fishing strategies. The report highlights the agricultural chemical sector as a key area of interest due to its rigid demand during the spring farming season [13]. 2. Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of April 11, Brent oil price decreased by 1.3% to $64.76 per barrel. The U.S. commercial oil inventory stood at 442.3 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 2.6 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.6 million barrels, while distillate inventory decreased by 3.5 million barrels. The report monitors 188 chemical products, with the top three price increases being Vitamin K3 (up 5.6%), international urea (up 5.2%), and monoammonium phosphate (up 4.3%). The top three price decreases were liquid chlorine (down 16.3%), WTI (down 16.2%), and crude oil (down 15.5%) [14][15]. 3. Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends several companies for investment: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [13]. - Huangma Technology: A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase again [13]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd.: A rare company with a global layout for formulation registration and sales channels [13]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd.: A leading domestic differentiated formulation company in the plant growth regulator industry [13]. - Hualu Hengsheng: Core product prices are recovering, coupled with falling coal prices, leading to continuous improvement in price differentials [13].