Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 205.34 HKD [4][9] Core Insights - The report highlights Alibaba's rapid advancements in AI technology and its strong commitment to becoming a global leader in AI services, with significant investments in AI and cloud computing [8] - The company has solidified its position in AI and instant retail, with expectations for continued revenue growth in its cloud business due to its leading model capabilities and open-source strategy [9] - The forecast for Alibaba's revenue for FY2026-2028 has been adjusted upwards due to the deepening AI strategy and advancements in model technology, with projected revenues of 10084 billion, 11391 billion, and 12482 billion respectively [9][11] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Alibaba's stock price as of September 29, 2025, is 173.4 HKD, with a 52-week high of 177.8 HKD and a low of 76.07 HKD [4] - The total market capitalization of Alibaba's H shares is 3,307,194 million HKD [4] Financial Performance - The report projects a revenue growth of 8.34% for 2024, with a slight increase to 5.86% in 2025, followed by a modest growth of 1.21% in 2026 [11] - The adjusted net profit for FY2026-2028 is forecasted to be 1412 billion, 1878 billion, and 2166 billion respectively, reflecting an increase in profit margins due to accelerated AI revenue [9][11] AI and Cloud Strategy - Alibaba's AI strategy is characterized by a commitment to open-source models, with the Qwen series models achieving significant user penetration and growth in derivative models [8] - The company aims to enhance its cloud services, with expectations of a tenfold increase in energy consumption for global data centers by 2032, indicating a robust growth trajectory in cloud computing [8] Market Position - The report emphasizes Alibaba's leading position in the AI model landscape, with Qwen 3 max ranking third globally in LLM Arena scores, surpassing competitors like GPT-5 [8][12] - The open-source strategy has resulted in over 100,000 clients for the Qwen series, with a significant increase in model downloads and usage [8][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to leverage its upgraded 2.5 Turbo model, which combines performance enhancements with a 30% price reduction, to drive user growth and revenue increase [2][3]. - AI is enhancing the core business efficiency, with the commercial system being restructured to provide long-term growth momentum [2]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The adjusted net profit forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be CNY 196 billion, CNY 230 billion, and CNY 259 billion respectively [4]. - The target price is set at HKD 99.07 per share, based on a 17x PE valuation for 2026, leading to a reasonable value of CNY 3,911 billion, equivalent to HKD 4,281 billion [4][11]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from CNY 113.47 billion in 2023 to CNY 166.83 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][15]. Key Financial Metrics - Revenue growth rates are projected at 20.5% for 2023, 11.8% for 2024, and gradually declining to 7.8% by 2027 [4][15]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 56.8% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4][15]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 5.6% in 2023 to 14.5% in 2027, showcasing improved efficiency [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.2 yuan based on a 35 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit from 317 million yuan in 2025 to 767 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 98.6% and 63.7% respectively [3]. - The report highlights the rapid release of production capacity and the overall advancement of the magnesium industry chain, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 7,652 million yuan in 2023 to 13,621 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.1% [5]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 368 million yuan in 2023 to 875 million yuan in 2027, with a notable growth of 49.2% in 2027 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 306 million yuan in 2023 to 781 million yuan in 2027, with a significant recovery expected in 2025 [5]. Market and Industry Insights - The report notes that the price of magnesium is becoming more competitive, which is likely to accelerate market penetration [9]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for magnesium alloys in electric bicycles, driven by new regulations that impose stricter weight limits [9]. - Breakthroughs in die-casting technology are expected to enhance the company's magnesium alloy deep processing business, leading to increased demand for magnesium components in the automotive sector [9].

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 大类资产风险可控，短期关注交易特征 ——"2+1"思维在大类资产中的应用初探 股债跷跷板的成因、影响和策略应对 2025-09-17 基于风险因子择时的动态全天候思路 2025-08-18 全天候策略需要择时吗：——风险均衡策 略新思路 2025-07-09 风险提示 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 021-63326320 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 29 日 | 王晶 | 执业证书编号：S0860510120030 | | --- | --- | | | wangjing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63325888*6072 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | ⚫ 证券研究"2+1"思维在大类资产投资过程中同样有效。"2+1"思维也即预期思 维、交易思维与边际思维。在资产配置中，我们通常以战略配置定中期仓位中枢， 以战术配置做短期仓位调整 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous and steel industries, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these sectors [8]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a new era of non-linear changes in copper and gold prices, with expectations for sustained price increases [14]. - The Grasberg mine incident is expected to significantly disrupt copper supply, enhancing the certainty of rising copper prices in the medium term [14][15]. - The report highlights that the copper smelting capacity growth is likely to slow down, which may improve smelting fees and profitability for copper smelting companies [15]. - For gold, the report emphasizes that the core pricing logic is tied to the deterioration of dollar credit in the medium term, rather than short-term interest rate expectations [16][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report discusses the potential for copper prices to rise due to supply shortages exacerbated by the Grasberg mine incident, which could reduce copper concentrate supply by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 270,000 tons in 2026 [14]. - It notes that global demand for copper is expected to grow rapidly due to factors such as electric vehicle adoption and data center expansion [14]. - The report also mentions that the copper smelting industry is facing a "de-involution" trend, which may lead to improved smelting fees in the future [15]. 2. Steel Industry - The report indicates that steel prices are expected to find support at the bottom due to cost factors, with a potential recovery in profitability in the fourth quarter [18]. - It highlights a seasonal shift in demand, with an increase in rebar consumption by 4.96% week-on-week, although it remains down 13.71% year-on-year [24]. - The report notes that the overall steel price index has slightly decreased by 0.28%, with specific products like hot-rolled steel showing a decline of 0.65% [39]. 3. New Energy Metals - The report states that lithium production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 46.54% in August 2025, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [43]. - It also mentions that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have maintained high growth rates, with August 2025 figures showing a 26.00% increase in production [47]. - The prices of lithium, cobalt, and nickel have shown an overall upward trend, reflecting strong demand in the energy metal market [54].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price of 13.20 CNY based on a 55x adjusted average valuation for comparable companies in 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The small and medium-sized drone market has significant growth potential, driven by the demand for unmanned combat systems in the military trade market [8][17]. - The company is a leader in the military small and medium-sized drone sector, with strong electronic information capabilities, and is expected to benefit from both domestic and international demand [9][10]. - The company has developed the "Hongzhan" unmanned equipment management system, which is anticipated to lead new trends in unmanned combat [8][9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 0.17, 0.24, and 0.32 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2021-2023 are 18,727 million CNY, 14,280 million CNY, and 15,651 million CNY, with a growth rate of 7.2% in 2023 [4]. - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1,042 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 29.2% [4]. Market Trends and Opportunities - The demand for small and medium-sized drones is expected to expand significantly due to their low cost and high efficiency, particularly in modern warfare scenarios [19][21]. - The commercial space sector is in a rapid growth phase, with the company positioned to benefit from increased satellite launches and the development of low-orbit satellites [10][11]. - The traditional business segments are expected to recover as the defense market improves, with a focus on missile, satellite, and rocket components [8][11]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a comprehensive range of drone products, including the FH-901 loitering munition, which boasts superior performance and collaborative combat capabilities [27][32]. - The company’s drones are designed for various military applications, with a focus on electronic information integration and system capabilities [30][31]. - The FH-901 loitering munition is noted for its long endurance and high explosive power, making it competitive against international counterparts [32][33].

新一期股权激励方案出炉 预计中期形势好 于短期 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 | | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年09月26日） | 10.01 元 | | 目标价格 | 15.84 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 14.89/9.89 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 116,889/101,661 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 11,701 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 纺织服装 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 09 月 29 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -1.38 | -11.42 | -9.17 | -19.55 | | 相对表现% | -2.45 | -13.61 | -24.48 | -47.89 | | 沪深 300% | 1.07 | 2.19 | 15.31 | 28.34 | ⚫ 根据下游服饰行业的经营形势和我们的草根跟踪，我们调整对公司的盈利预测，预 计公司 2025-2027 年每股收益 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 估值小幅修复，底仓品种价值显现 可转债市场周观察 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 29 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 估值继续压缩，等待切入时机：可转债市 | 2025-09-24 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 关注科创债 ETF 未"超涨"成分券：信用 | 2025-09-22 | ...

风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 29 日 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 保持稳定性、流动性以对抗市场波动 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 估值继续压缩，等待切入时机：可转债市 场周观察 2025-09-24 关注科创债 ET ...

Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views - The bond market performed poorly in Q3 due to multiple factors, including policy - induced macro - narrative reversals, a decline in the bond market's profit - making effect, and regulatory - induced redemptions of bond funds. As Q4 approaches, historical experience shows that interest rates are more likely to decline in Q4. The report explores possible paths for bond market sentiment repair [6][9]. - The market has reached a consensus on a weak present but improving future for the fundamentals and continuous loosening of the capital market. Thus, poor Q4 fundamental data and loose capital cannot significantly drive down bond market interest rates [6][12]. - Central bank actions are still crucial. The deviation between the capital market and bond market interest rates is due to large government bond issuances. If the supply of interest - rate bonds increases in Q4, the central bank is expected to strengthen monetary policy. Observing changes in central bank monetary policy or a downward - guiding of inter - bank interest rates may be a path for bond market sentiment repair [6][13][16]. - Attention should be paid to the end of the withdrawal of trading funds. The bond market adjustment caused by regulatory policies on funds is more of a frictional effect. In the long run, funds are likely to return to the bond market. Monitoring regulatory rhythms, institutional responses, and the profit - taking progress of Q3 short - sellers in Q4 is advisable [6][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly View: Possible Paths for Bond Market Sentiment Repair - Q3 bond market performance was poor, affected by policies, the equity market, and regulatory factors. Institutions' behaviors changed, with insurance institutions not eager to allocate and funds having a bad experience in "bottom - fishing". Entering Q4, the report explores paths for bond market sentiment repair [9]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: September PMI Data to be Released 2.1 Domestic PMI Data Release - This week, China will release September PMI data, and the US will release September ADP employment figures and other data [18]. 2.2 This Week's Decline in Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - The issuance scale of interest - rate bonds this week has seasonally declined to a low level, with a planned total issuance of 107.2 billion. There are no plans to issue treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds this week. 33 local bonds are planned to be issued, with a scale of 107.2 billion [21][22][23]. 3. Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook: High Bond Market Volatility 3.1 14 - Day Reverse Repurchase at the End of the Quarter - Near the end of the quarter, the central bank carried out 14 - day reverse repurchases. After a 30 - billion - yuan injection on Monday and no further operations in the middle of the week, a 60 - billion - yuan injection on Friday eased capital fluctuations. The net injection of open - market operations totaled 88.06 billion. Capital prices first rose and then fell. Repurchase trading volume also rose and then fell, with an average of about 7.27 trillion per week. Overnight ratios decreased. DR001 and DR007 first rose and then fell. The issuance of negotiable certificates of deposit remained at a relatively high level, with high prices. The net financing was - 17.83 billion. The 9 - month and 1 - year maturities accounted for about 44%. Secondary selling pressure was high, and last week's CD interest rates rose to a high level [27][29][35]. 3.2 Continued High Bond Market Volatility - The bond market continued to be highly volatile. At the beginning of the week, the expectation of increased monetary easing was disappointed, and multiple negative factors led to a large - scale bond market adjustment. In the second half of the week, the central bank increased the injection of medium - and long - term liquidity and 14 - day reverse repurchases, easing capital pressure and leading to bond market repair. The yields of 10Y treasury bonds and CDB active bonds changed by 0.4bp and 2bp to 1.8% and 1.96% respectively compared to last week. The yields of interest - rate bonds of various maturities mainly rose, especially those of policy - financial bonds. The 5Y Export - Import Bank bond had the largest increase, rising 4.8bp [48]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Improvement in Automobile Sales and Commodity Housing Transaction Data - On the production side, the operating rates were divided. The daily average crude steel production in early September had a year - on - year growth rate of 1.6%, turning positive from negative. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales improved. The year - on - year growth rate of the commodity housing transaction area turned positive. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 7% and - 2.9% respectively. - On the price side, crude oil prices rose, copper and aluminum prices diverged, and the settlement price of the coking coal active contract futures changed by - 0.1%. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index changed by 0.5%, the cement index by 2.4%, and the glass index by 3%. The output of rebar was basically flat, the inventory decreased to 4.72 million tons, and the futures price changed by - 0.6%. In the downstream consumer sector, vegetable, fruit, and pork prices changed by 2%, 1.6%, and - 0.3% respectively [55][56].