基金研究 | 定期报告 "资源品+军工制造"可能继续演绎，中盘 成长风格或占优 ETF 投资月报（2026 年第 1 期） 研究结论 风险提示 宏观经济风险、产业政策风险、行业周期风险、主题炒作风险、量化模型滞后性风险 等。本报告结论完全基于公开的历史数据进行计算，对基金产品和基金管理人的研究分 析结论并不预示其未来表现，也不能保证未来的可持续性，亦不构成投资收益的保证或 投资建议。本报告不涉及证券投资基金评价业务，不涉及对基金产品的推荐，亦不涉及 对任何指数样本股的推荐。 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 13 日 | 证券分析师 | | --- | 东春鸣 执业证书编号：S0860525100002 dongchunming@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 周期热度持续，关注化工主题基金：2026 年 01 月主动权益基金配置月观点 2026-01-08 中盘蓝筹风起，主动权益基金优势凸显： 市场有效性研究与主、被动基金配置建议 2026-01-06 公募量化基金定量跟踪月报（截至 2025 年 12 月底） 2026-01-05 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重 ...

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 退税政策催化，锂价再上涨 ——钴锂金属行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 1 月仍看好碳酸锂价格上涨，中期需注意动力与储能端由于需求转淡带来的价格回踩压 力，但 2026 年锂价整体中枢上移的趋势不改。钴市在 2026 年 4 月大批量原料到港前， 受限于现货结构性紧缺与成本倒挂支撑，价格重心仍有上行空间。 风险提示 新能源汽车增速不及预期，储能装机增速不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 13 日 看好（维持） | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 宁紫微 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120005 | | | ningziwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 流动性预期强化，扩散行情延续：有色及 贵金属周报 2026-01-11 对标 2010 年，稀土板块有望迎来盈利估值 双击：——两用物项对日本出口管制政 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 就业增长强度过低，失业率难以维持稳 定，降息预期仍将修复 ——2025 年 12 月就业数据点评 研究结论 就业数据持续产生预期差的风险。 美国经济陷入衰退的风险。 通胀超预期上行的风险。 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 12 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 委内瑞拉事件对美国"例外溢价"或短多 | 2026-01-06 | | --- | --- | | 长空：——海外札记 20260105 | | | 美元周期还在探底，人民币升值 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time, with a target price of 42.63 CNY based on a valuation of 21 times earnings for 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a traditional home appliance manufacturer to a more diversified entity, leveraging its core competencies in refined management and strategic acquisitions [8][9]. - The company has completed the transfer of its overseas production capacity, which is expected to lead to improved profitability in the near future [8]. - The acquisition of Shanghai Pajie has enhanced the company's profitability in the automotive parts sector, with a strong order backlog [8][67]. - The PCBA business, acquired through the purchase of Lihua Technology, has broad downstream applications and is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [8]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 1.47 CNY, 2.03 CNY, and 2.37 CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 100.2 billion CNY in 2025 to 121.3 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% [11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 8.4 billion CNY in 2025, increasing to 13.6 billion CNY by 2027 [11]. Business Overview - The company has diversified its operations into four main business segments: home appliances, automotive parts, electric motors, and PCBA manufacturing [10]. - The home appliance segment has seen a gradual decline in its revenue contribution, from 80% in 2019 to 58% in 2023, as the automotive and PCBA segments grow [29]. - The company maintains a strong focus on overseas markets, with approximately 70% of its revenue coming from exports [29]. Operational Performance - The company has demonstrated stable revenue growth, with a CAGR of 11.36% from 2019 to 2024, and net profit growth at a CAGR of 19.62% during the same period [36]. - The gross margin has remained stable, fluctuating between 20% and 30%, with recent strategic adjustments leading to an upward trend in profitability [39]. - The return on equity (ROE) is consistently high, projected to be between 25% and 30% from 2022 to 2024, indicating strong financial health compared to industry peers [42].

Report Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The core issue in the bond market lies in demand rather than supply. In early 2026, the bond market continued to adjust. Although there was a high - volume supply of government bonds and a lengthening trend in local bond issuance terms, the rapid post - New Year loosening of the capital market and the "bear - steep" adjustment of the curve indicated that supply was not the core contradiction. Also, the insurance sector's adjustment of its local bond allocation term structure offset the impact of the change in local bond issuance terms [6][13]. - The root cause is the active contraction of bond investment by institutions. Since 2025, banks have been actively reducing bond investment, similar to the situation in 2016 - 2017, but the current reason is the low interest rate, which makes the return unable to cover the cost. Fund and fixed - income asset management products have been continuously redeemed, leading to large - scale bond sales [6][23]. - To solve the demand - side problem, three aspects can be considered: reigniting the market's expectation of a significant interest rate decline, the central bank taking further steps in directly purchasing long - term bonds, and increasing the necessity of strongly stimulating the economy to promote banks' rapid re - expansion of their balance sheets and spill - over into bond investment [6]. - In the short term, the overall demand problem in the bond market is difficult to solve. It is advisable to focus on structural demand changes, especially in wealth management products. Wealth management products may gradually shift to slightly longer - duration products for returns. Attention can be paid to the riding value of 2 - 3Y urban investment bonds, 1 - 2Y industrial bonds, and appropriate credit picking of high - quality urban and rural commercial banks for sub - perpetual bonds within 3Y, and trading opportunities for 3 - 4Y sub - perpetual bonds [6][27]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - Some believe the bond market adjustment in 2026 is due to supply expansion, with the first - week government bond net issuance reaching a new high and a lengthening trend in local bond issuance terms [6][10]. - However, the core problem is on the demand side. The post - New Year capital loosening and "bear - steep" curve adjustment show that supply is not the core contradiction. Also, the insurance sector's adjustment of its local bond allocation term structure has kept the spread between local and national bonds stable [13][15]. - Institutions are actively reducing bond investment. Since 2025, banks' bond investment contraction is similar to that in 2016 - 2017, but currently due to low interest rates. Fund and fixed - income asset management products are being redeemed, leading to bond sales [23]. - To solve the demand - side problem, consider reigniting interest rate decline expectations, central bank action on long - bond purchases, and economic stimulus [23]. - In the short term, focus on wealth management products. They may shift to longer - duration products for returns, and attention can be paid to specific bond types [27]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market - **Release of December Financial Data**: This week, China will release December financial data, and the US will release December CPI and other data [30]. - **Interest - Rate Bond Issuance**: The expected issuance volume of interest - rate bonds this week is around 427.2 billion yuan, including 207 billion yuan of national bonds, 70.2 billion yuan of local bonds, and about 150 billion yuan of policy - bank financial bonds, which is at a medium level compared to the same period in previous years [30][31]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Reverse Repurchase Net Withdrawal**: Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 165.5 billion yuan. After the New Year, the reverse repurchase maturity volume was high, and the capital market had a seasonal volume increase and price increase, with the increase in price being controllable [34][35]. - **Interest - Rate Adjustment at the Beginning of the Year**: The new fund fee regulations before New Year's Day were beneficial to bond - fund liabilities, but the market quickly took profits after the interest - rate decline. Concerns about government bond supply and the strong start of the equity market suppressed bond - market sentiment. Finally, the yields of most interest - rate bonds increased, with only the 1 - year national bond yield falling by 4.9bp, and the 3 - year national bond yield rising the most, by about 7.8bp [49]. 4. High - Frequency Data - **Production Side**: There was a divergence in operating rates. The blast - furnace and PTA operating rates increased, while the semi - steel tire and asphalt operating rates decreased. In late December, the daily average crude - steel output had a wider year - on - year decline of 14.8% [52]. - **Demand Side**: The year - on - year growth of passenger - car wholesale and retail sales improved rapidly. In the week of December 31, the year - on - year growth of passenger - car wholesale and retail sales were 45% and 17% respectively. The year - on - year decline in the commercial - housing transaction area narrowed. In the week of January 4, the land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, and the land transaction area had a seasonal decline and a large year - on - year decline. The commercial - housing sales area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased to 2.75 million square meters, with a narrowed year - on - year decline of 9%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 0.5% and 4.2% respectively [52]. - **Price Side**: Crude - oil prices recovered, copper and aluminum prices increased, coal prices diverged, the mid - stream building - material composite price index increased slightly, and downstream vegetable and fruit prices decreased while pork prices increased. The rebar inventory decreased to a low level of 283 tons, and the futures price increased by 0.6% [53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of CNY 204 billion, CNY 225 billion, and CNY 259 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The valuation for 2026 is set at 18x PE, leading to a target price of HKD 103.20 per share [3][10]. - The launch of the KOL 2.6 action control feature has significantly increased the company's influence in overseas markets, with notable download spikes in countries like South Korea and India [9]. - The company anticipates a steady revenue growth of 9% in 2026, reaching CNY 154.9 billion, with advertising and other business segments expected to grow by 10% and 21%, respectively [9]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue (CNY million): 113,470 (2023), 126,898 (2024), 142,053 (2025), 154,873 (2026), 167,518 (2027) [4]. - Adjusted Net Profit (CNY million): 6,396 (2023), 15,335 (2024), 18,287 (2025), 21,457 (2026), 24,770 (2027) [4]. - Earnings per Share (CNY): 1.48 (2023), 3.56 (2024), 4.26 (2025), 5.00 (2026), 5.77 (2027) [4]. - Gross Margin (%): 50.6% (2023), 54.6% (2024), 55.1% (2025), 56.3% (2026), 56.8% (2027) [4].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a continued focus on short-term credit bonds, particularly those with maturities of 3 years or less, due to a stable funding environment and potential for interest rate arbitrage [6][9] - It suggests exploring opportunities in municipal bonds with maturities of 2-3 years and industrial bonds with maturities of 1-2 years, while advising caution on longer-term bonds due to increased uncertainty [6][9] - The report notes that the recent regulatory changes regarding bond fund fees have had limited positive impact, and thus, short-term bonds remain a more prudent investment choice [6][9] Group 2 - The credit bond market has seen a recovery in issuance levels, with a total of 269.9 billion yuan issued from January 5 to January 11, 2026, marking a significant net inflow of 131.1 billion yuan, the highest weekly net inflow since December of the previous year [14] - The average issuance costs for AAA and AA+ rated bonds have increased, with average coupon rates rising by 16 basis points and 7 basis points respectively [14][15] - Secondary market activity showed a slight increase in turnover rates, with credit spreads generally narrowing, although long-term bonds faced more pressure [14][19] Group 3 - The report indicates that credit spreads for various bond ratings have generally widened, with 5Y-1Y spreads increasing by 2-3 basis points, while AA rated bonds saw a slight narrowing of 2 basis points [20][22] - Municipal bond credit spreads have shown a slight contraction, averaging a reduction of about 3 basis points across provinces, with Tibet experiencing the largest decrease of 5 basis points [22] - Most industry credit spreads also contracted by 2-4 basis points, indicating a generally favorable trend in the credit market [22]

核心观点 ⚫ 我们不同于市场的见解： 房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 期待更优力度的政策 我们认为房地产政策的数量不重要，重要的是政策的力度。目前看来，两类政策会 有作用：一是降息、贴息类影响购房资金成本的政策；二是收储、拆迁、以及救助 负债的企业和居民主体等直接投放大量资金的政策。《求是》新年刊文，提出政策要 一次给足，这个提法与我们的观点不谋而合，有理由期待在 2026年看到更有力度的 政策组合。 ⚫ 具体事件评述： 《求是》开年刊文强调要改善和稳定房地产市场预期，建议政策要一次性给足、做 好供给管理等。我们认为这对于房地产市场止跌回稳、新旧模式转换至关重要。 开年定调"改善和稳定房地产市场预期"。文章强调房地产的金融属性、在国民经 济和居民财富中的重要地位，以及预期管理对稳定房市的关键作用。在市场已持续 较长时间量价下行的背景下，文章刊发的时间点和内容体现 2026年稳定房地产市场 预期的迫切性。 政策逻辑转型——从"渐进调控"到"精准发力、一次性到位"。文章中提出，要 积极主动作为，以更有力更精准的举措，持续改善和稳定房地产市场预期，尽可能 缩短调整时间，主要强调三点：保持政策力度、做好供给管理、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market last week saw an increase in both volume and price. Although the convertible bond valuation is already high, high - priced and over - valued convertible bonds remain strong. The 100 - yuan premium rate has broken through the previous 30% - 34% oscillation range and may experience a slow correction. In an environment with a scarcity of cost - effective convertible bonds, incremental funds can only flow to convertible bonds with strong certainty in the remaining term [5][8]. - From the current absolute price and valuation level, the future upward space for convertible bonds is limited, but incremental demand is expected to provide some support. With individual bond valuations already over - estimated across the board, it is recommended to focus on newly - issued convertible bonds and those whose redemption has been waived, as trading opportunities are greater than trend - following opportunities [5][8]. - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index achieved 16 consecutive positive days and reached 4,100 points. With the inflow of foreign capital and an increase in the proportion of equity asset allocation by domestic long - term funds, the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan. Sectors such as commercial space, AI computing power, applications, and small metals continued to be strong. There was no market pull - back as previously speculated, and the market continued to break through strongly after the New Year's Day. Historically, in the A - share market, high trading volumes do not necessarily mean a market peak, but caution should be exercised when chasing high - risk themes. The market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, and the two - end market of technology and dividends will shift towards mid - cap blue - chip stocks, including industries such as cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors, and entities such as aerospace satellites, artificial intelligence, service consumption, unmanned driving, nuclear fusion, and semiconductors [5][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Views: Increase in Both Volume and Price of Convertible Bonds, and Re - emergence of Valuation Pressure - The convertible bond market last week was driven up by the underlying stocks, with high - priced and over - valued convertible bonds remaining strong. The 100 - yuan premium rate broke through the previous range and may correct slowly. Incremental funds flow to convertible bonds with strong certainty in the remaining term [8]. - The upward space for convertible bonds is limited, but incremental demand provides support. Attention should be paid to newly - issued convertible bonds and those with waived redemption, as trading opportunities are greater [8]. - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,100 points with high trading volume. Sectors like commercial space and AI were strong. The market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, and the market style will shift to mid - cap blue - chips [8]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: Leading Rise of High - priced Bonds, and New High in Valuation 3.2.1 Market Overall Performance: Overall Rise of Equity Indexes and Increase in Trading Volume - The equity market last week saw an increase in both volume and price, with all broad - based indexes rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.40%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.89%. The defense and military, media, and non - ferrous metals sectors led the rise, while only the banking sector declined. The average daily trading volume increased significantly from 726.158 billion yuan to 2.84 trillion yuan [12]. - The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week were Seli Convertible Bond, Dingjie Convertible Bond, etc. The more actively traded convertible bonds included Seli Convertible Bond, Zai 22 Convertible Bond, etc. [12] 3.2.2 Significant Increase in Trading Volume, and Better Performance of High - priced, Small - cap, and Low - rated Convertible Bonds - Last week, convertible bonds rose significantly, with the 100 - yuan premium rate breaking through the previous high and the average daily trading volume reaching 93.701 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 4.45%, the parity center rose 4.2% to 105.1 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate remained flat at 32.3%. High - priced, small - cap, and low - rated convertible bonds led the rise, while high - rated and dual - low convertible bonds performed weakly [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - A series of policies at the end of 2025 promote the scale expansion of public REITs in multiple aspects, with the market entering the "infrastructure + commercial real estate" dual - drive stage. Public REITs remain a high - quality alternative in the context of a long - term decline in the bond market interest rate center and the continuation of the asset shortage logic [6][10]. - In December 2025, the public REITs market continued its downward trend, with a wider decline than in November. The factors leading to the callback are complex, including the differentiation of underlying assets, the strong performance of equity assets, and the concentrated unlocking of strategic placement shares. However, the adjustment in the past six months is regarded as a reasonable valuation callback and a return of market rationality [6][11]. - The trading heat in December was weak, with both the average daily turnover rate and trading volume decreasing month - on - month. The trading volume of large - scale transactions decreased and the discount narrowed, which may be a bottoming signal [6][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Policy持续细化和推进 - At the end of 2025, multiple regulations in the REITs field were issued, including expanding the scope of underlying assets, making the asset yield more flexible, and encouraging investment from insurance, social security, and annuity funds. The policies also promote the opening of the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect channel and the construction of REITs - related index funds and ETFs [6][9][10]. 2. Secondary Market Performance: Weak Trend in December - In December, the public REITs market continued to decline, with the CSI REITs (closing) index falling 3.91%. The performance of various assets was significantly differentiated, with the equity market strengthening. The factors for the decline of REITs include the poor performance of some underlying assets, the strong performance of equity assets, and the concentrated unlocking of strategic placement shares [11]. - The rental housing and energy infrastructure sectors had relatively leading increases in December, while other sectors declined. The decline of franchise - based REITs was significantly greater than that of property - based REITs [15][16]. 3. Trading Situation: Weak Trading Heat and Narrowing Discount in December - In December, the trading heat was weak, with the average daily trading volume of 470 million yuan, a 13.76% month - on - month decrease, and the average daily turnover rate of 0.41%, a 21.15% month - on - month decrease. New infrastructure, water infrastructure, and municipal infrastructure had relatively high trading activity, and property - based REITs had slightly higher trading heat than franchise - based REITs [21]. - The large - scale trading volume in December decreased, and the discount narrowed. The monthly trading volume was 1.294 billion yuan, a 39.98% month - on - month decline, and the weighted discount premium rate was - 0.62%, indicating a narrowing discount [21]. 4. REITs Valuation - For franchise - based REITs, P/FFO, cash distribution rate, and the REITs valuation yield provided by ChinaBond valuation are more appropriate valuation indicators. For property - based REITs, P/NAV, P/FFO, cash distribution rate, and the REITs valuation yield provided by ChinaBond valuation can all be used as valuation indicators [26]. - Among franchise - based REITs, transportation infrastructure and ecological and environmental protection facilities have relatively low valuations, while municipal infrastructure and water infrastructure have relatively high valuations. Among property - based REITs, affordable rental housing and industrial park infrastructure have relatively low P/NAV [26][27]. 5. Primary Market Situation - As of December 31, 2025, there were 78 listed public REITs products in China, with a total market value of 218.463 billion yuan. One new product was added compared to the end of November, and the total market value decreased by 1.422 billion yuan [30]. - Currently, there are 16 REITs funds waiting to be listed, 2 for expansion and fundraising applications, and 1 for a new acquisition project [31].