Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 33.66 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 17 times for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth driven by high-quality customer support and scale effects [1]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.98, 2.59, and 3.38 CNY respectively, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [2]. - The company anticipates strong performance in the second quarter, with net profit expected to grow by 47.0%-67.0% year-on-year [9]. Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 6,034 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 42.7% [3][11]. - Operating profit is expected to reach 1,013 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a 50.6% increase compared to the previous year [3][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 861 million CNY for 2025, indicating a 40.5% year-on-year growth [3][11]. - The gross margin is projected to be 27.3% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to be 14.3% [3][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 28.3% in 2025 [3][11].

家电行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 龙头业绩高成长性有望开始回归 ——清洁电器推荐观点更新 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 清洁电器行业龙头近期披露超预期经营成果，科沃斯二季度预计收入增长近 40%，超市 场预期，其中科沃斯品牌业务的超 60%增速是超预期原因所在；近期 Prime Day 大促落 下帷幕，根据战报，Prime Day 期间石头科技和追觅欧洲增速都在 100%以上，北美延续 高速增长，略超市场预期。以上信息显示当前行业需求或正处于国内外两旺状态，且我 们基于下半年国补将会延续、品类渗透率持续提升、新消费活跃的判断，对接下来清洁 电器国内增速依旧持较乐观的预期，海外表现也值得期待。另外利于行业利润率修复的 因素也有望继续显现，比如竞争环境好转、享受创新溢价、内部管理优化等。综合上述 对收入&利润率两方面的判断，清洁电器赛道龙头后续业绩有望回归高成长，值得重视。 建议关注石头科技(688169，买入)、科沃斯(603486，买入)。 风险提示 1、家电国内以旧换新政策效果不及预期；2、原材料价格及汇率大幅波动；3、对美出口 关税大幅上升；4、海外需求超预期下滑；5、行业竞争格局超预期恶化。 国家/地区 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The convertible bond index may face pressure to rise significantly, but there is no systematic risk, and there are structural opportunities. Convertible bonds are still valuable assets. Although the current premium rate is not low and the median absolute price is high, considering the decline in yields of various fixed - income assets, the demand for fixed - income + allocation is strong, supporting the price of convertible bonds. Short - term callbacks may occur, but the amplitude is controllable, and opportunities outweigh risks [4]. - The current market is dominated by bulls. The improvement of grass - roots governance capacity has increased public confidence, leading to a rise in market risk appetite. The market is oscillating horizontally and strengthening step by step, with the financial and technology sectors being the focus [4][8]. - The year - on - year increase of CPI in June provides emotional support to the market. Anti - involution sectors are still under attention, and the real estate sector is expected to improve due to favorable policies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views: Bullish on Convertible Bonds After Continuous Surges - The convertible bond market followed the equity market and rose significantly under the low - position condition, but this week it was relatively restrained with a slight valuation correction. There may be pressure for the convertible bond index to rise further, but there are still structural opportunities. Short - term callbacks are possible, but the amplitude is controllable [4]. - The current emotional source is the growth of public confidence due to the improvement of grass - roots governance capacity. The market is oscillating horizontally and strengthening step by step, and the financial and technology sectors will be the focus. The year - on - year increase of CPI in June provides emotional support to the market, and the real estate sector is expected to improve [8]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bonds Continue to Follow the Rise of Equities 2.1 Market Overall Performance: The Stock Market Continues to Rise, and Convertible Bonds Follow More Restrainedly - From July 7th to July 11th, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and other major stock indices all rose. The real estate, steel, and non - bank finance sectors led the rise, while the coal, banking, and automobile sectors declined. The leading convertible bonds performed weaker than the underlying stocks, and the momentum weakened slightly, but the upward trend of popular individual bonds continued [11]. 2.2 Trading Volume Increases, and Medium - High - Rated and Low - Priced Convertible Bonds Perform Well - This week, convertible bonds continued to rise, and the trading volume increased significantly to 6.8115 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.76%, the parity center rose 1.5% to 102.1 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center fell 2.2% to 23.1%. In terms of style, medium - high - rated and low - priced convertible bonds performed well, while large - cap and high - priced convertible bonds were relatively weak [4][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant recovery in the performance of upstream electronic components, with a positive outlook for sustained equipment orders [11][12] - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing notable recovery, with deep-sea technology expected to further drive future demand [12][14] - The current market conditions continue to favor the military industry, with military trade anticipated to become a second growth driver [15] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on the following segments: - **Military Electronics**: Recommended stocks include Zhenhua Technology (000733, Overweight), Aerospace Electronics (002025, Buy), and Torch Electronics (603678, Not Rated) [16] - **Key Materials and Parts**: Recommended stocks include Western Superconducting (688122, Buy) and Chujian New Materials (002171, Buy) [16] - **Aero Engine Chain**: Recommended stocks include Aero Engine Power (600893, Not Rated) and Western Superconducting (688122, Buy) [16] - **Military Trade**: Suggested stocks include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760, Not Rated) and Guorui Technology (600562, Not Rated) [16] Performance Insights - Torch Electronics expects a net profit of 247 million to 280 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 50.36% to 70.45% [11][31] - Major shipbuilding companies, including China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry, reported over 60% growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, with China Heavy Industry potentially doubling its profit [12][13] Market Trends - The defense and military industry index increased by 0.88%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.09% [17][18] - The report notes that the military industry is ranked 25th out of 31 in terms of performance among the primary industry indices [20] Weekly News Highlights - The report includes significant domestic and international news related to the military industry, emphasizing ongoing developments and strategic activities [25][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The current market performance of the non-ferrous steel sector is driven by political policy risk premiums rather than fundamental earnings or growth adjustments [8][14] - There is a significant concern regarding the supply chain security in the context of long-term US-China competition, particularly with strategic metals like copper [15] - The imposition of high tariffs on copper is seen as a market manifestation of political policy risk premiums, influencing inventory behaviors [16] - Non-market strategies, such as US government investments in rare earths, highlight the strategic importance of these materials beyond mere economic considerations [17] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous and Steel Industry Overview - The report discusses the political policy risk premium affecting the non-ferrous steel sector, suggesting that current valuations may exceed fundamental support [8][14] - It emphasizes the need to consider long-term supply chain and national defense requirements when evaluating market premiums [14] Steel Industry Dynamics - Steel demand and production have both decreased, with a slight week-on-week decline in rebar consumption by 1.50% and a year-on-year drop of 5.85% [18][23] - Total steel inventory is expected to decline further, with social inventory down by 0.23% and year-on-year down by 29.02% [25] - The report anticipates a rebound in steel prices due to industry restructuring and reduced competition, with the overall steel price index rising by 1.14% [38][39] New Energy Metals - In May 2025, China's lithium carbonate production surged by 31.37% year-on-year, indicating strong supply growth [43] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales of electric vehicles increasing significantly [47] - Lithium and cobalt prices are on the rise, while nickel prices have shown a downward trend [52][53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the computer industry, specifically focusing on Real World Assets (RWA) [4] Core Insights - RWA represents a transformative innovation in financial technology by converting real-world assets into digital assets on the blockchain, potentially leading to exponential growth in the sector [2][6] - The global RWA asset market reached $24.5 billion as of June 2025, with projections to exceed $16 trillion by 2030, indicating a significant opportunity for investment [6][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory frameworks being established globally to support the growth of RWA, with regions like Hong Kong and the EU leading the way [26][30] Summary by Sections RWA: Connecting Real World Assets to Blockchain - RWA involves the tokenization of tangible and intangible assets through blockchain technology, enhancing liquidity and reducing transaction costs [11][12] - The RWA market is rapidly expanding, with a diverse range of assets including real estate, bonds, and commodities being tokenized [15][16] RWA Issuance Process and Regulatory Framework - The RWA issuance process consists of five key steps: asset selection, legal and compliance framework establishment, technology implementation, token issuance, and ongoing management [21][23] - Various countries are developing regulatory frameworks for RWA, with Hong Kong adopting a sandbox approach to foster innovation while ensuring compliance [26][30] Expansion of Asset Classes and RWA Market - RWA assets can be categorized into cash flow, equity, and non-cash flow assets, with credit and bonds currently leading the market [35][36] - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the RWA sector, particularly in tokenized real estate and securities, which are becoming increasingly popular [46][53] RWA Industry Ecosystem - The RWA ecosystem is forming a collaborative industry chain involving asset providers, technology firms, platforms, compliance custodians, and investors [4][6] - Key players in the blockchain and fintech sectors are recommended for investment, including companies like 恒生电子 and 新国都 [2][6]

投资策略 | 定期报告 指数盘整蓄力，主题轮动依旧 策略周报 20250706 研究结论 上篇周报我们认为若关税延期，风险评价下降，风险偏好上升，攻势会再启，本周 美国将关税暂缓期延长至 8 月 1 日，各大指数上涨，上证指数站稳 3500 点，最高至 3555.22 点，我们认为市场已经完成对关税延期消息的边际利好交易。再看风险方 面，我们看到美国对巴西商品征收 50%关税超出此前预期，或因此导致巴西市场本 周下跌 3.59%，特朗普称下周一将发布有关俄罗斯的"重大声明"以及将对乌输送 更多武器的表态，或是俄罗斯市场本周下跌 5.7%的原因。我们认为市场目前对关税 的乐观预期占了上风，对关税不及预期的风险定价不足，风险评价或难继续下降。 指数短期预计进入盘整蓄力阶段： 市场近期风险评价下降，风险偏好上升是推动指数上涨的核心动力，本周创业板指 数、中证 1000 指数和全 a 指数上涨幅度均超过上证指数。乐观的市场情绪可能还有 一定惯性，但我们认为短期在没有新的边际利好预期下，指数可能会在尝试冲高受 阻后，进入盘整蓄力阶段。 信心牛趋势不变，蓄力后逐级再攀新高： 我们认为市场上涨的核心动力是来源于市场对国家治 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 寻找收益率曲线的"凸点" 研究结论 ⚫ 信用债周观点：7 月第二周受"股债跷跷板"行情影响债市情绪受挫，但波动幅度尚 在可控范围内，主因跨季后债券配置需求依然偏强。考虑到债市并无潜在重大利 空、资金面平稳、资管产品处于传统扩张期等因素，Q3 对于票息品种我们建议继续 保持久期、不要过短，在 3Y 以内尽量多做下沉，资质偏强的区域可拉久期至 5Y， 并以交易思维少量参与超长信用债（目前已到需要适时提前止盈的阶段）。 ⚫ 寻找收益率曲线的"凸点"： 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 信用债市场周观察 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 杜林 | | ...

新能源销量快速增长，兵装集团分立有望 提升公司经营效率 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润 80.30、94.71、113.13 亿元，维持可比公司 25 年平 均 PE 估值 21 倍，目标价 17.01 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 长安自主品牌销量低于预期、长安合资品牌销量低于预期、行业价格战影响盈利。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 151,298 | 159,733 | 180,654 | 200,457 | 219,509 | | 同比增长 (%) | 24.8% | 5.6% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 9.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 10,447 | 6,624 | 8,395 | 9,919 | 11,868 | | 同比增长 (%) | 36.9% | -36.6% | 26.7% | 18.2% | 19.6% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 1 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: MFE (Maximized Factor Exposure) Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The MFE portfolio aims to maximize the exposure to a single factor while controlling for various constraints such as industry exposure, style exposure, and stock weight limits[75][76]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The optimization model is formulated as follows: $$ \begin{array}{ll} \text{max} & f^{T}w \\ \text{s.t.} & s_{l} \leq X(w-w_{b}) \leq s_{h} \\ & h_{l} \leq H(w-w_{b}) \leq h_{h} \\ & w_{l} \leq w-w_{b} \leq w_{h} \\ & b_{l} \leq B_{b}w \leq b_{h} \\ & 0 \leq w \leq l \\ & 1^{T}w = 1 \\ & \Sigma|w-w_{0}| \leq to_{h} \end{array} $$ - **Explanation**: - \( f \): Factor values - \( w \): Stock weight vector to be solved - Constraints include style exposure, industry exposure, stock weight deviation, component stock weight limits, and turnover rate[75][76][77]. - The model is solved using linear programming to efficiently determine the optimal weights[76]. - **Model Evaluation**: The MFE portfolio is evaluated based on its historical performance relative to the benchmark index, considering constraints such as industry and style exposures[78][79]. Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Trend - **Factor Construction Idea**: The Trend factor captures the momentum of stock prices over different time horizons[12][17]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Trend_120**: $$ \text{EWMA}(\text{halflife}=20) / \text{EWMA}(\text{halflife}=120) $$ - **Trend_240**: $$ \text{EWMA}(\text{halflife}=20) / \text{EWMA}(\text{halflife}=240) $$ - **Factor Evaluation**: The Trend factor showed a positive return of 2.15% this week, indicating a strong market preference for trend-following strategies[12]. Factor Name: Single Quarter Net Profit YoY Growth - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the year-over-year growth in net profit for a single quarter[2][8]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculation: $$ \text{Single Quarter Net Profit YoY Growth} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Previous Year Same Quarter Net Profit}}{\text{Previous Year Same Quarter Net Profit}} $$ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor performed the best among the CSI All Share Index components this week[2][8]. Factor Backtesting Results Trend Factor - **Recent Week**: 2.15%[12] - **Recent Month**: 5.62%[14] - **Year-to-Date**: -1.74%[14] - **Last Year**: 26.90%[14] - **Historical Annualized**: 14.22%[14] Single Quarter Net Profit YoY Growth Factor - **Recent Week**: 1.69%[57] - **Recent Month**: 3.19%[57] - **Year-to-Date**: 8.08%[57] - **Last Year**: 3.65%[57] - **Historical Annualized**: 3.20%[57]