宏观经济 | 专题报告 缩量与前置：关税反复后的出口预判 研究结论 | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK ...

- The report introduces a dividend forecast model to predict the impact of dividends on index futures contracts, specifically for the July contracts of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [6][10][19] - The model's construction involves estimating component stocks' net profits, calculating pre-tax dividend totals, assessing the impact of dividends on indices, and predicting the influence on futures contracts based on historical dividend timelines and weights [19][20][22] - The formula for estimating stock weights in the index is provided as: $$\mathrm{w_{it}={\frac{w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\(\1+R\)}}{\sum_{1}^{n}w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\(\1+R\)}}}}$$ where \(w_{i0}\) is the initial weight, and \(R\) is the price change ratio over the period [20] - The theoretical pricing model for futures under discrete dividend distribution is: $$F_t = (S_t - D)(1 + r)$$ where \(F_t\) is the futures price, \(S_t\) is the spot price, \(D\) is the present value of dividends, and \(r\) is the risk-free rate [25] - For continuous dividend distribution, the pricing model is: $$F_t = S_t e^{(r-d)(T-t)}$$ where \(d\) is the annualized dividend yield, and other variables are as defined above [26] - The model predicts dividend points for July contracts as follows: SSE 50 (28.77), CSI 300 (27.38), CSI 500 (13.98), and CSI 1000 (12.41) [6][10][13] - The annualized hedging costs (excluding dividends) for July contracts are: SSE 50 (-3.60%), CSI 300 (1.05%), CSI 500 (6.74%), and CSI 1000 (9.50%) [6][10][13] - The remaining impact of dividends on July contracts is estimated as: SSE 50 (1.06%), CSI 300 (0.70%), CSI 500 (0.24%), and CSI 1000 (0.20%) [13] - The report evaluates the model as a useful tool for identifying arbitrage opportunities and managing hedging costs, particularly in the context of dividend season [6][7][10]

投资策略 | 定期报告 攻势未歇，蓄力再攀 策略周报 20250629 研究结论 ⚫ 利率未变，心弦已动 美联储主席表态维持"按兵不动"：美联储主席鲍威尔出席国会参众两院的半年度 货币政策听证会，重申在经济数据未明朗前不会贸然降息，暗示政策调整窗口或在 9 月，而 7 月按兵不动旨在争取时间评估风险。 市场降息预期边际升温：虽然鲍威尔表态只是暗示了政策调整的窗口期，但市场已 经开始预计 9 月降息，有交易员预计美联储将于 9 月开始降息，增加了美联储将在 2025 年降息 3 次的押注。另一方面，本周多位美联储官员也释放了鸽派信号，比如 监管副主席鲍曼和美联储理事沃勒。 全球市场对降息升温反应积极：本周全球主要市场普遍上涨，日经上涨 4.55%，纳 斯达克指数上涨 4.25%，恒生指数上涨 3.2%，我们认为全球市场本周上涨是因为风 险偏好受降息预期升温的影响，正在提升。 ⚫ 下周是加仓点：市场短暂整理后有望继续进攻 A 股市场风险偏好回升，但仍有犹豫：本周市场风险偏好明显回升，上证指数涨 1.91%，并突破前期压制许久的 3400 点位，但和海外市场相比，仍然有明显的犹 豫，周四周五回踩明显。我们认为本周一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][3]. Core Views - The company held a comprehensive ecosystem launch event on June 26, 2025, introducing products such as the Xiaomi YU7 SUV, Xiaomi AI glasses, and the Xiaomi MIX Flip 2 smartphone [2][11]. - The Xiaomi YU7 has shown strong sales momentum, with over 289,000 pre-orders within the first hour of its launch, significantly surpassing the previous model's performance [12][10]. - The Xiaomi AI glasses are positioned as a personal AI device, featuring advanced hardware and capabilities for smart interaction and enhanced battery life compared to competitors [23][10]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 1.35, 1.82, and 2.27 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 75.95 HKD based on a 38x PE ratio for 2026 [3][26]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a growth trajectory from 270,970 million CNY in 2023 to 690,216 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][28]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly, from 20,009 million CNY in 2023 to 65,077 million CNY in 2027, indicating strong operational efficiency [5][28]. Product and Ecosystem Development - The Xiaomi YU7 SUV features high performance with a range of 835 km and advanced driving assistance technologies, positioning it competitively in the electric vehicle market [10][18]. - The launch of multiple new products across smartphones, tablets, wearables, and home appliances strengthens the company's ecosystem, enhancing its market presence and growth potential [24][10].

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 28 日 杨怡玲 yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 研究结论 风格表现监控 本周市场正收益风格集中在 Beta 风格上，负收益风格表现在 Value 风格上。一年动 量是中证全指成分股中，本周表现最好的因子。 因子表现监控 公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 投资建议 风险提示 量化模型失效风险、 市场极端环境冲击。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 | 捕捉趋势的力量：基金动量刻画新范式： | 2025-06-12 | | --- | --- | | ——FOF 研究系列 | | | Neural ODE：时序动力系统重构下深度学 | 2025-05-27 | | 习因子挖掘模型：——因子选股系列之一 | | | 一六 | | | 广发中证全指电力公用事业 ETF 投资价值 | 2025-05-20 | | 分析：——FOF 系列研究之七十五 | | | DFQ-diversify ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 28 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 戴思崴 | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | | 伊以冲突地缘风险交易的前景：——海外 | 2025-06-20 | | --- | --- | | 札记 20250617 | | | 东方战略周观察：伊以地缘冲突升级凸显 | 2025-06-16 | | 美国中东和 ...

——机器人产业跟踪 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 当前人形机器人板块催化明确，Optimus Gen3 即将发布及量产提速有望成为行业景气上 行的核心驱动力，新品发布与量产加速的共振有望重构板块估值体系，同时考虑到半年 报窗口期临近，建议关注三条投资线索：二季报业绩超预期标的；已进入头部厂商供应 链、量产确定标的；丝杠、灵巧手、电机、传感器、减速器等技术创新企业。 建议关注：（1）整机和总成：优必选、越疆、埃斯顿、拓斯达、埃夫特-U、中坚科技、 亿嘉和、永创智能、杰克股份、领益智造、拓普集团、三花智控、信质集团、均普智 能；（2）零部件：五洲新春、震裕科技、金沃股份、日盈电子、中欣氟材、赛摩智能、 康平科技、浙江荣泰、嵘泰股份、绿的谐波、斯菱股份、捷昌驱动、兆威机电、祥鑫科 技、步科股份、唯科科技、南山智尚、汉威科技、凌云光、华依科技；（3）场景和应 用：中邮科技、德马科技、音飞储存、安徽合力、杭叉集团、诺力股份、首程控股。 风险提示 产品降价风险、场景需求落地不明确导致低于预期、国家政策变化导致行业发展放缓、 海外龙头厂商生产不及预期、行业融资不及预期、模型发展和数据采集慢于预期。 机械设备行业 行业研究 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Neutral" [7] Core Insights - The launch of Xiaomi YU7 has seen a rapid surge in orders, indicating strong consumer recognition of Xiaomi's product capabilities and brand strength. This is expected to benefit companies within the Xiaomi automotive supply chain [2][7] - Xiaomi YU7's first-day order performance significantly exceeded that of its predecessor, SU7, marking a milestone for Xiaomi in the high-end automotive market. The vehicle's pricing and specifications position it competitively against major rivals like Model Y [7] - Xiaomi's unique ecosystem integration, including smart home connectivity and voice interaction capabilities, is anticipated to enhance the YU7's market appeal and drive sales growth [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the automotive and components industry, particularly highlighting the impact of Xiaomi's new model YU7 on the market [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks to watch include: - Yinlun Machinery (002126, Buy) - Huayang Group (002906, Buy) - Huayu Automotive (600741, Buy) - Jingwei Hirain Technologies (688326, Buy) - Fuyao Glass (600660, Not Rated) - Top Group (601689, Buy) - Desay SV (002920, Buy) - Precision Forging Technology (300258, Buy) [2]

Group 1: Market Trends - The recent rebound of the US dollar does not indicate a trend reversal, but rather a short-term reaction to geopolitical tensions and market conditions[6] - The dollar's rebound began on June 13, following Israeli attacks, but has limited sustainability due to unchanged oil supply levels from Iran, which increased exports by 44% to an average of 2.33 million barrels per day[17] - The market is currently experiencing crowded trades against the dollar, but this does not guarantee a reversal; the crowded short positions may face pressure if unexpected events occur[28] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with market expectations fully pricing in two rate cuts for 2025[39] - Economic growth forecasts have been revised down, with 2025 and 2026 GDP growth expected at 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, while unemployment rates are projected to rise to 4.5%[45] - Inflation expectations have been adjusted upwards, with the PCE inflation forecast for 2025 set at 3%[45] Group 3: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index saw a slight decline of 0.15% during the week of June 14-21, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.21%[31] - Oil prices rose by 2.09% during the same week, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[31] - The risk premium for US stocks remains low, indicating potential vulnerability to rising interest rates and declining economic fundamentals[20]

Group 1: Market Trends - The recent rebound of the US dollar does not indicate a trend reversal but rather a short-term reaction to geopolitical tensions and market conditions[6] - The dollar's rebound began on June 13, following the Israeli attacks, but has limited sustainability due to unchanged oil supply levels[12] - The market is currently experiencing crowded trades against the dollar, which may lead to short-term pressure on previously leading currencies and markets like Europe and Japan[21] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US economy shows resilience, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 adjusted to 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, while unemployment rates are projected to rise to 4.5%[31] - Inflation expectations have been revised upwards, with PCE inflation projected at 3.0% for 2025, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[31] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the June meeting, with market expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year[28] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, have contributed to market volatility and risk premiums in oil prices, with a $10 premium observed in crude oil prices[12] - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, impacting risk appetite and commodity prices, necessitating close monitoring of developments[39]