华鲁恒升 600426.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 | 盈利基本盘扎实，新材料项目贡献增长 | | --- | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 目前公司主要产品景气仍在持续磨底，我们根据产品价格及价差情况对公司营收和 利润进行调整，我们预测公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 2.01、2.16、2.41 元（原 25 年预测为 2.60 元），根据可比公司 25 年 11 倍市盈率，给以公司目标价 22.11 元 并维持买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 产品和原材料价格波动风险；项目建设不及预期风险。 | 公司主要财务信息 | | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 27,260 | 34,226 | 35,960 | 40,608 | 41,734 | | 同比增长 (%) | -9.9% | 25.6% | 5.1% | 12.9% | 2.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4,428 | 5,008 | 5,942 | 6,35 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 117.25 CNY based on a projected average PE of 67 for comparable companies in 2025 [2][5][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in earnings per share (EPS), with projections of 1.75 CNY, 2.52 CNY, and 3.29 CNY for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively, reflecting adjustments in main business revenue [2][11]. - The company has experienced a substantial increase in revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue reaching 3.64 billion CNY (up 59% year-on-year) and net profit at 1.41 billion CNY (up 213% year-on-year) [10]. - The company is a leader in the DDR5 memory interface chip market, with its DDR5 chip shipments surpassing those of DDR4, indicating a strong competitive position [10]. Financial Information Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 2.29 billion CNY in 2023 to 9.65 billion CNY by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -38%, 59%, 50%, 37%, and 30% respectively [4]. - **Profitability**: Operating profit is expected to increase from 472 million CNY in 2023 to 4.24 billion CNY in 2027, with significant growth rates of -67%, 199%, 52%, 47%, and 34% [4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 451 million CNY in 2023 to 3.77 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of -65%, 213%, 42%, 44%, and 31% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share**: EPS is projected to increase from 0.39 CNY in 2023 to 3.29 CNY in 2027 [4]. - **Margins**: The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 61.5% by 2027, while the net margin is projected to be approximately 39.1% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.078 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.98% to 177 million yuan [9] - New orders continued to grow rapidly, with a total of 1.786 billion yuan in new orders signed in 2024, an increase of 18.74% year-on-year, and a backlog of 3.273 billion yuan, up 27.57% year-on-year, providing a solid foundation for future growth [9] - The company emphasizes innovation in drug research and development, with R&D expenses increasing by 39% to 172 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 15.9% of revenue [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) has been adjusted downwards to 1.98 yuan for 2025 and 2.36 yuan for 2026, with a new estimate of 2.95 yuan for 2027 [2] - The reasonable valuation level for the company is set at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 29 times for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 57.42 yuan [2] Financial Information Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1.078 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.753 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 15.7%, 22.0%, 15.6%, and 15.3% [4] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 50.5% to 50.8% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to improve from 16.8% in 2025 to 18.9% in 2027 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 18.4% in 2025 to 19.6% in 2027 [4]

家用产品表现亮眼，海外稳健增长 ——普门科技 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 24 年报，我们下调收入预测，上调毛利率预测，预测公司 25-27 年 EPS 分 别为 0.91/1.06 /1.18 元（前值为 2025 年 1.19 元，2026 年 1.51 元）。基于可比公 司估值，给予 25 年 19 倍 PE，目标价为 17.29 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 研发进展不及预期的风险，产品销售不及预期的风险，行业竞争加剧的风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,146 | 1,148 | 1,294 | 1,465 | 1,650 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.5% | 0.2% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 12.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 345 | 378 | 413 | 492 | 547 | | 同比增长 (%) | 34.6% | 9.5% | 9.3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [7][51]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in Q2 is experiencing a downturn, with a focus on whether unexpected policies will be introduced to stabilize the market [2]. - In 2025, under the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing," it is expected that the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will increase, and urban village renovations will accelerate [3][51]. - The report highlights that the sales volume of new homes in 44 major cities is approximately 20,000 units, showing a 23% increase month-on-month (excluding the Spring Festival effect), which is higher than the 13% increase in 2024 but lower than the 24% increase in 2023 [51]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 15th week, the real estate sector index outperformed both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of 1.2% compared to the CSI 300 index [11]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 3750.52 with a weekly decline of 2.9%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2190.21 with a weekly decline of 1.7% [11][15]. Sales Data - In the 15th week, new home sales in 44 major cities were 14,000 units, a decrease of 28.8% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities increased by 15.3% to 21,000 units [16]. - Inventory in 18 major cities increased to 842,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 23.7 months, indicating a slight increase in inventory pressure [23]. Policy Developments - Local policies include Guangzhou's "land acquisition and immediate construction" model, Fuzhou's new housing provident fund regulations, and Hainan's increase in maximum loan limits for new self-occupied housing [13][21]. - Nanjing has introduced a government subsidy program to promote housing consumption through "old-for-new" exchanges [21]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of Poly Developments (600048) and China Merchants Shekou (001979), while suggesting to pay attention to China Resources Land (01109), Yuexiu Property (00123), and others [3][51]. - Additionally, it recommends investing in real estate intermediary platforms like Beike-W (02423) that will benefit from policy support and increased market activity [3][51].

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 15 日 | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 外部环境与内部政策共同影响通胀—— | 2025-04-11 | | --- | --- | | 2025 年 3 月通胀数据点评 | | | 首次明确平准基金定位，关注稳定资本市 | 2025-04-11 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 14.04 CNY [1][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 17.17 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 840 million CNY, up 14.2% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 800 million CNY, reflecting a 21.1% increase [5][9]. - The company has shown strong performance in property management, with a revenue of 16.49 billion CNY, an increase of 11.7%. The gross profit margin for basic property management improved by nearly 2 percentage points to 10.7%, contributing to an overall gross margin increase [9]. - The company achieved a new annual contract amount of 4.03 billion CNY, with third-party contracts accounting for 92% of the total, indicating a solid market expansion strategy [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 15.63 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 19.05 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.9% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 736 million CNY in 2023 to 1.15 billion CNY in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 36.3% [7]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 11.6% in 2023 to 12.7% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to rise from 4.7% to 6.0% over the same period [7][11]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.4 for 2024, with an expected P/E of 11.3 for 2025 [10]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decrease from 1.2 in 2024 to 1.1 in 2025, indicating a favorable valuation trend [11]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.79 CNY in 2024 to 1.08 CNY in 2025, reflecting strong earnings growth potential [7][10].

Q2 房地产市场回落，观察未来是否有超预 期政策出台 房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 25 年全年，在"止跌回稳"目标下，一线城市限购放松力度有望进一步加大、城中 村改造有望提速；调规、换地等方式或能在更多城市推广，提高新房竞争力、盘活 旧土地库存，为新房成交量提供一定的支撑。在高能级城市深耕、土储质量优、产 品力突出的房企具备α属性。 推荐：保利发展(600048，买入)、招商蛇口 (001979，买入)；建议关注：华润置地(01109，未评级)、越秀地产(00123，未评 级)、中国海外发展(00688，未评级)、新城控股(601155，未评级)、滨江集团 (002244，未评级)。此外，推荐受益于政策利好落地、一二手市场活跃度提升的房 产中介平台，贝壳-W(02423，买入)。 国家/地区 中国 行业 房地产行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 15 日 | 赵旭翔 | zhaoxuxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 | | 李雪君 | 021-63325888*60 ...

招商积余 001914.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月14日） | 12.26 元 | | 目标价格 | 14.04 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 13.33/8.16 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 106,035/106,034 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 13,000 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 房地产 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 15 日 | 1 周 1 月 3 月 12 月 绝对表现% 8.88 13.1 24.21 29.93 相对表现% 4.15 19.28 25.82 21.78 沪深 300% 4.73 -6.18 -1.61 8.15 赵旭翔 zhaoxuxiang@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 | sunyixuan@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | | 孙怡萱 | 业绩稳健，非住业态优势显著 2024-03-21 营收业绩双增，基础物管毛利率改善 核心观点 事件：公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.59 CNY [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing pressure on profitability, but its overseas business is growing rapidly. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.378 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [2][9]. - The company has narrowed its losses significantly, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -0.18 billion CNY in 2024, a reduction of 74.5% compared to the previous year [9]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, achieving a 121.85% increase in overseas revenue, amounting to 1.01 billion CNY [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 1.286 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 1.802 billion CNY in 2025, representing a growth rate of 30.8% [5][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 69.9% in 2024 to 76.4% in 2025 [5][11]. - The net profit margin is projected to turn positive by 2025, reaching 8.6% [5][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to recover from -0.05 CNY in 2024 to 0.39 CNY in 2025 [5][11].