外部风险继续上行但幅度可控 ——海外札记 20251020 宏观经济 | 专题报告 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 21 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 美国：科技驱动下的"无就业增长"经济 | 2025-10-20 | | --- | --- | | 初探 | | | TACO2.0 交易展望： — — 海外札记 | 2025-10-13 | | 20251013 | | | 美国政府关门：数据真空延长，宏观交易 | 2025-10-0 ...

关注存单利率变化 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 21 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 在短端防御之外适当增配高弹性品种： | 2025-10-14 | | --- | --- | | ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 与其为过去防守，不如向未来布局 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 42 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 21 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | --- | --- | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | ⚫ 部分投资者的观点：为保护今年盈利，仓位配置与板块选择偏向保守。上周（2025 年 10 月 13 日-17 日）由于中美关系短期持续紧张，以及今年是过去四年权益投资 收益较为显著的一年，部分投资者为保护全年投资收益，计划在今年剩余的时间内 仓位配置与板 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry in China [5] Core Viewpoints - The military trade market in China is continuously expanding, with significant developments such as Indonesia's procurement of the J-10 fighter jet, indicating a rapid growth in the military trade market scale [11] - The "Qianfan Constellation" satellite network has resumed operations after a 7-month hiatus, with the recent launch of 18 satellites, suggesting an acceleration in low-orbit satellite deployment [12] - The current market conditions show stabilization in military sector stock prices, with a focus on domestic demand and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" which is expected to clarify new equipment construction plans [16][17] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report highlights several investment targets within the military electronics sector, including: - Aerospace Electric (002025, Buy) - Zhonghang Optics (002179, Buy) - Aerospace Electronics (600879, Not Rated) - In the new quality and domain sector, notable mentions include: - Haige Communication (002465, Buy) - New Light Optoelectronics (688011, Increase Holding) - For the engine chain, key targets include: - West Superconducting (688122, Buy) - Huqin Technology (688281, Increase Holding) - In military trade and main equipment, companies like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760, Not Rated) are highlighted [17]

金铜价格或迎上行周期，资源放量奠定业 绩增长基础 ——紫金矿业 25 年三季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们调整了金、铜等相关产品的成本和销量等，预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 1.84、2.57、3.01 元（2025-2027 年原预测值 1.87、2.35、2.79 元），根据可比公 司 26 年 17X 的 PE 估值，对应目标价 43.69 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 公司矿产铜、矿产金产品的量、价、利润率不及预期；海外并购当地政局不稳定风险； 投资收益波动风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 293,403 | 303,640 | 396,103 | 468,920 | 504,583 | | 同比增长 (%) | 8.5% | 3.5% | 30.5% | 18.4% | 7.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 31,937 | 48,827 | 73,287 | 103,328 | 122 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The convertible bond market had a poor profit - making effect last week. Although the underlying stocks fell sharply, there was no panic selling in convertible bonds. The valuation declined, and it is likely to remain at the current level or slightly compress. [7][10] - In an environment where pure bonds are weak and the demand for convertible bonds exceeds the supply, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets. The short - term structural opportunities are greater than the trend opportunities, and the instrumental attribute of convertible bonds has become stronger. The cashing pressure continues, and the key to the subsequent trend lies in the equity market. One should seize structural opportunities and buy on dips to bet on rebounds. [7][10] - This week, the market was significantly pressured by events such as Sino - US tariffs. The main stock indices closed down, and the capital style switched in the short term. The A - share market is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend, and the slow - bull pattern remains unchanged. [7][10] - This week, convertible bonds followed the decline of the equity market. The average daily trading volume decreased significantly to 68.844 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.35%, the parity center decreased by 3.0% to 109.3 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased by 1.7% to 21.2%. AAA - rated convertible bonds performed well this week, while high - price and low - rated convertible bonds performed weakly. [7][18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bond Views: Cashing Pressure Remains, but the Correction is Still Controllable - The convertible bond market's current information is neutral. The subsequent trend depends on the equity market. One should grasp structural opportunities and buy on dips to bet on rebounds. The cashing pressure continues, but the correction is controllable. [7][10] 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bonds Followed the Equity Market Downward, and the Valuation Retracement was Limited 3.2.1 Market Overall Performance: Affected by Both Domestic and Foreign Factors, All Indices Closed Down - From October 13th to 17th, affected by both domestic and foreign factors, the main indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.99%, the CSI 300 fell 2.22%, the CSI 1000 fell 4.62%, the ChiNext Index fell 5.71%, the STAR 50 fell 6.16%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 4.91%. [15] - In terms of industries, banking, coal, and food and beverage led the gains, while electronics, media, and automobiles led the losses. The average daily trading volume decreased by 407.953 billion yuan to 2.19 trillion yuan. [15] - The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week were Tongguang, Liugong, Yanpai, etc. In terms of trading volume, Guanchong, Yuguang, Huicheng, etc. were relatively active. [15] 3.2.2 Trading Volume Shrunk Significantly, and High - Rated Convertible Bonds Performed Well - This week, convertible bonds followed the equity market down. The average daily trading volume decreased significantly to 68.844 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.35%, the parity center decreased by 3.0% to 109.3 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased by 1.7% to 21.2%. [18] - In terms of style, AAA - rated convertible bonds performed well this week, while high - price and low - rated convertible bonds performed weakly. [18]

研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 2~3Y 中等资质主体攻守兼备 信用债市场周观察 | 在短端防御之外适当增配高弹性品种： | 2025-10-14 | | --- | --- | | 2025 年 10 月小品种策略 ...

宏观经济 | 专题报告 美国：科技驱动下的"无就业增长"经济 初探 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面走向的不确定性。降息落地进度不及预期的风险。 地缘政治形势走向的不确定性，影响风险偏好和商品价格。 假设条件发生变化影响测算结果的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 20 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | TACO2.0 交易展望： — — 海外札记 | 2025-10-13 | | --- | --- | | 20251013 | | | 美国政府关门：数据 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 调整空间有限，保持信心 策略周报 20251019 研究结论 ⚫ 指数调整空间有限，保持信心 我们认为指数调整空间有限，保持横盘震荡、继续走强的判断。本周市场整体回 调，主要原因可能是短期资金年内止盈动力较强和面对短期中美的不确定性时选择 观望。我们认为资金止盈的因素是短期的，权益市场的吸引力和投资者的长期信心 没有变化。中美方面，我们预期后续局势会收敛，整体可控，对市场不利影响有 限。 ⚫ 主题方面，继续保持对科技的最高关注 我们认为主题投资机会主要集中在科技成长，短期关注低位的自主可控（软件 等）、十五五规划相关科技（量子科技、深海经济和脑机）和创新药，上周我们提 示规避的装备类和前期涨幅较大的科技公司，本周回调较多，我们认为持续的回调 会提升相关板块中核心公司的吸引力，逐渐吸引资金开始重新配置。 ⚫ 非科技方向，看好战略金属，黄金>稀土等小金属>铜 我们看好顺序依次为黄金、稀土等小金属和铜。黄金方面，法币信用恶化与避险双 重利好会持续驱动，短期虽然金价有回调风险，看好中期价格继续维持上行趋势。 稀土方面，物项和技术出口管制升级，板块战略价值有望持续提升。铜方面，在全 球电网升级、 ...

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 IMO 会议投票难产，但不改绿色低碳产业 发展趋势 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 我们看好在绿色聚酯产业中已领先布局关键节点的万凯新材(301216，买入)。短期 受贸易争端影响较小的农药制剂环节，如润丰股份(301035，买入)、国光股份 (002749，买入)、海利尔(603639，买入)等。同时也看好"反内卷"政策预期驱动 下，石化与化工行业有望出现景气复苏，主要相关标的包括中国石化(600028，买 入)、恒力石化(600346，买入)、荣盛石化(002493，买入)、万华化学(600309，买 入)、华谊集团(600623，买入)；。 风险提示 ⚫ 需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 19 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 万里扬 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090003 | | | wanl ...