电子行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 利基 DRAM 供需格局重塑中，行情景气度 持续 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 利基存储市场供需格局重塑中，同时叠加 AI 驱动和国产替代机遇，建议关注兆易创 新、北京君正、复旦微电、德明利、朗科科技、东芯股份、江波龙、佰维存储、恒 烁股份、万润科技、深科技、同有科技、普冉股份、聚辰股份等。 风险提示 ⚫ 下游需求增长不及预期；原厂退出进展不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 电子行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 02 日 看好（维持） | 薛宏伟 | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | 蒯剑 | 021-63325888*8514 | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPT856 | | 韩潇锐 | hanxiaorui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080004 | 朱茜 zhuqian@ori ...

宏观经济 | 专题报告 风险事件预计进入频发窗口，但市场走强 趋势未必逆转 ——海外札记 20250630 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。政策不确定性。地缘政治形势走向的不确定性。 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 02 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 美元短期反弹，并不意味趋势反转：—— ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 44.25 HKD, based on a valuation of 453.5 billion RMB using the FCFF method [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The company is expanding into the Hong Kong soft drink market, with a faster-than-expected progress in local channel development, which is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [1][8]. - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.29, 1.50, and 1.68 RMB respectively, reflecting a downward revision in revenue expectations but an upward adjustment in gross margin [2][9]. - The company aims to leverage its strong product and brand positioning to gradually increase its market share in Hong Kong, which is projected to enhance its internationalization efforts [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 42,667.22 million RMB, 42,895.99 million RMB, 51,095.56 million RMB, 59,457.43 million RMB, and 66,556.46 million RMB, with growth rates of 28.36%, 0.54%, 19.11%, 16.37%, and 11.94% respectively [3][15]. - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 12,079.50 million RMB in 2023A to 18,858.36 million RMB in 2027E, with corresponding growth rates of 42.19%, 0.36%, 19.65%, 16.49%, and 11.60% [3][15]. - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 59.55% in 2023A to 60.11% in 2027E, while the net margin remains stable around 28% [3][15]. Market Position and Strategy - The company holds approximately 12% market share in the Chinese ready-to-drink soft drink market and aims to enhance this position through its entry into the Hong Kong market [8]. - The partnership with Jianhua Group, a well-established local distributor, is expected to facilitate better access to retail channels in Hong Kong, with products set to be available in over 3,500 sales points [8].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The expectation of improved national governance effectiveness is driving an increase in risk appetite among investors[4] - Despite anticipated GDP growth pressure, the market has already priced in the "high-low" trend and inflation concerns, suggesting that macro policy efficiency and international comparisons are undervalued[4] - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to enhance the sense of gain for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and workers, potentially leading to a decrease in risk assessments[5] Group 2: Policy Implications - Recent policies, such as the "Guarantee for Payment to SMEs" regulation, aim to shorten payment terms, which may improve profitability quality for SMEs[6] - The focus of policies is shifting towards more elastic service consumption, reflecting a change in consumer demand from essential goods to optional services as income rises[7] - Local governments are expanding service consumption capabilities, indicating a policy shift towards enhancing consumer protection and infrastructure development[7] Group 3: Global Context - Global geopolitical instability, including fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, is leading investors to recognize the stability of China's national governance[9] - The certainty of China's governance is becoming a driving force for foreign investment, as it contrasts with the uncertainties in Western economies[9] - The market has already factored in pressures on GDP growth and inflation, but the certainty of governance and efforts to improve economic structure remain undervalued, presenting a fundamental reason to invest in China[10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 23.75 CNY [2][5]. Core Views - The company is focusing on continuous brand development and sees overseas markets as a significant growth driver. Despite challenges such as increased tariffs on electric vehicles in the EU, the company has maintained a leading position in the European market with its MG brand [1][9]. - The company's overall sales have shown a consistent upward trend, achieving a year-on-year increase for six consecutive months. In June, the wholesale sales reached 365,300 units, a 21.6% increase year-on-year [9]. - The company is experiencing positive results from its reforms, with steady growth in its domestic brand sales and a successful partnership with Huawei, which is expected to enhance product capabilities [9]. Financial Information Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 638.11 billion CNY, 687.196 billion CNY, and 742.172 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 3.9%, 7.7%, and 8.0% [4][10]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rebound significantly from 1.666 billion CNY in 2024 to 11.003 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 560.3% [4][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be 0.95 CNY in 2025, increasing to 1.03 CNY in 2026 and 1.15 CNY in 2027 [2][4]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to improve from 9.4% in 2024 to 11.1% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to stabilize around 1.7% [4][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 16.8 in 2025, decreasing to 13.9 by 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [4][10].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 利差压缩行情或延续 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 01 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 债市"抢跑"行情或将延续：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 超长信用债行情能持续多久：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | 场周观察 | | | 临近季末关注机构行为冲击：固定收益市 | 2025-06-16 | | 场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分 ...

加拿大业务禁令影响有限，公司全球化进 程势头良好 核心观点 事件：2025 年 6 月 27 日，加拿大政府以所谓"国家安全"为由，命令海康威视加拿大 有限公司停止在加拿大运营并关闭其加拿大业务。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 1.57、1.83、2.12 元，根据可比公司 26 年 23 倍 PE 估值水平，对应目标价为 42.09 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 关税等因素导致宏观经济波动，带来下游需求不及预期；AI 技术研发及商业化落地 进度滞后；海外市场政策风险与汇率波动；行业竞争加剧导致毛利率波动。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 89,341 | 92,496 | 103,452 | 115,999 | 130,399 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7% | 4% | 12% | 12% | 12% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 16,040 | 14,312 | 17,226 | ...

家电行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 清洁&小家电龙头开启治理优化，经营改善 可期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 清洁&小家电龙头积极变化值得关注，于外竞争有望趋缓，于内治理优化正在开启，经营 改善可期，建议关注石头科技(688169，买入)、小熊电器(002959，增持)。 板块整体而言，受益政策拉动和新消费蓝海活跃，叠加今年空调旺季有望受益较高气温 和较低库存，接下来家电需求值得期待，后续国补补贴方式变化但扰动有限；出口方面 新兴市场潜力可期，对美出口扰动因为全球产能布局也无需过忧，供应链优势带来的全 球格局重塑机会则需重视。建议关注享受国内政策延续、积极出海，自身效率提升的优 质白电龙头，建议关注美的集团(000333，未评级)、海尔智家(600690，买入)、海信家 电(000921，未评级)；建议关注海外成熟市场份额重塑，且短期全球供应链优势有望放 大弹性的出海/出口优质企业，建议关注海信视像(600060，增持)、欧圣电气(301187，买 入)；建议关注地产负面扰动缓和，策略灵活调整并有望布局海外的厨电企业，建议关注 老板电器(002508，买入)、华帝股份(002035，未评级)。 风险提示 1、 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 7 月流动性或仍宽松 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 利率债市场周观察 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 债市"抢跑"行情或将延续：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 超长信用债行情能持续多久：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | 场周观察 | | | 临近季末关注机构行为冲击：固定收益市 | 2025-06-16 | | 场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告 ...

国防军工行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 新型号技术成熟叠加后市场格局改变，航 发产业有望迈入全新发展阶段 核心观点 事件：根据中国航空发动机集团官网，张玉金已任中国航发董事长、党组书记。 投资建议与投资标的 航发集团"一把手"调整，航发产业有望重回高增长轨道，我们认为发动机板块有望迈 入全新发展阶段，市场前景广阔，建议关注以下细分领域标的： 风险提示 ⚫ 航发集团"一把手"任命落地，新一届管理团队成型。张玉金曾任中国航发"两 机"重大专项工程副总指挥，中国航发商发董事长、党委书记，中国商用飞机有限 责任公司党委常委、副总经理等职，于 2024 年 4 月任中国兵器装备集团有限公司总 经理、党组副书记；2025 年 2 月重返中国航发任总经理、党组副书记。中国航发专 注航空发动机、辅助动力、燃气轮机及传动系统的研制维修，开展航空关键材料研 发，其成果作为航空装备 "心脏"，直接决定军民用飞机动力性能，全面配装各类 航空装备，同时服务航天、船舶等领域，为装备性能提升与自主可控提供核心支 撑。该职位距离上任董事长卸任空缺了大约两个月，张玉金本次任职意味着中国航 发重新有了掌舵者，航发产业有望重回高增长轨道。 ⚫ 核心 ...