Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is focusing on high-quality development in the new Olympic cycle, despite short-term revenue slowdown [1] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced a forecast for 2027, expecting EPS of 0.92, 1.05, and 1.20 RMB respectively [2][8] - The target price is set at 20.07 HKD, based on a 20x valuation for 2025 [2][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,598 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [2] - Operating profit is expected to decline to 4,256 million RMB in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 21.4% year-on-year [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 3,187 million RMB for 2023, down 21.6% year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates a net decrease of approximately 10 direct stores and an increase of around 40 franchise stores in 2025 [7] - The gross margin is expected to be 48.4% in 2023, with a slight increase to 49.1% by 2027 [2][11] - The net profit margin is projected to decline from 11.5% in 2023 to 8.2% in 2025, before recovering to 9.5% in 2027 [2][11] Market and Competitive Landscape - The retail environment is becoming increasingly competitive, with intensified discounting pressures from international brands [7] - The company is expected to increase marketing expenditures in the second half of 2025 and throughout 2026 to support sustainable growth [7] - The major shareholder has shown confidence in the company's long-term prospects by increasing their stake by approximately 1.11% [7]

电子行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 需求端迭代滞后于原厂产能收缩，利基 DRAM 行情景气度有望持续 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 利基存储市场供需格局重塑中，同时叠加 AI 驱动和国产替代机遇，建议关注兆易创 新、北京君正、复旦微电、德明利、朗科科技、东芯股份、江波龙、佰维存储、恒 烁股份、万润科技、深科技、同有科技、普冉股份、聚辰股份等。 风险提示 ⚫ 下游需求增长不及预期；原厂退出进展不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 电子行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 17 日 看好（维持） | 薛宏伟 | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | 蒯剑 | 021-63325888*8514 | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPT856 | | 韩潇锐 | hanxiaorui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080004 | 朱茜 zhu ...

建材行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 玻纤仍需"反内卷"，落实效果或可期待 ——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 核心观点 冯孟乾 fengmengqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523070003 | 房价继续走弱，博弈价值再起：——建筑 | 2025-06-18 | | --- | --- | | 建材行业跟踪点评 | | | 行业需求仍偏弱，关注新兴材料产业：— | 2025-05-29 | | —建筑建材行业跟踪点评 | | | 关税调整，跨境电商仍有作为：——遮阳 | 2025-05-29 | | 面料行业跟踪点评 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 投资建议与投资标的 玻纤企业 2025 年上半年利润同比明显好转，得益于行业的集体复价。展望未来，在整治 "内卷式"竞争的背景下，我们认为稳量、稳价政策执行效果或更好，从而提升市场对 于玻纤企业业绩增长的韧性和预期。建议关注玻纤行业头部企业中国巨石(600176，买 入)、中材科技(002080，未评级) 。 风险提示 ...

建材行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 地产走弱冲击有限，城市更新有望接力 ——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 市场部分观点过于担忧地产下行对于建材板块估值的压制，且对城市更新带来需求释放 力度认识不够。但如前文所分析，我们认为投资者对于地产端需求下滑越来越"脱 敏"，反而更关注"止跌回稳"措施的出台，同时城市更新政治站位的提升，或蕴藏更 大的需求潜力。在目前阶段，一些所处较好赛道且自身经营已出现明显改善的企业，未 来有望迎来更多的发展机遇，建议关注涂料龙头三棵树(603737，未评级)。 风险提示 房地产需求进一步大幅下滑、行业中小企业出清不及预期，原燃材料价格上涨。 国家/地区 中国 行业 建材行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 17 日 看好（维持） 冯孟乾 fengmengqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523070003 | 房价继续走弱，博弈价值再起：——建筑 | 2025-06-18 | | --- | --- | | 建材行业跟踪点评 | | | 行业需求仍偏弱，关注新兴材料产业：— | 2025-05-29 | | —建筑建材行业跟踪 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The external environment's uncertainty is increasing, and the continuation of loose monetary policy is expected, with the overall expected return rate for society trending downward in the medium to long term. The effectiveness of low-volatility dividend strategies is likely to persist. The public fund reform is expected to assist banks in achieving excess returns as the allocation style returns to normal [3][26] - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, primarily due to alleviated pressure on other non-interest income growth [3][26] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Two main investment lines are currently being focused on: 1. Preparing for the anticipated reduction in insurance preset rates in Q3 2025 by investing in high-dividend banks, with recommendations to pay attention to China Construction Bank (601939, not rated), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, not rated), and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy) [4][27] 2. Continuing to favor small and medium-sized banks that have performed strongly since the beginning of the year, with recommendations to focus on Industrial Bank (601166, not rated), CITIC Bank (601998, not rated), Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy), Jiangsu Bank (600919, Buy), and Hangzhou Bank (600926, Buy) [4][27] Financial Data Insights - In June 2025, the social financing (社融) year-on-year growth was 8.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, and the monthly increment was 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding the consensus expectation of 494.2 billion yuan [9][10] - The increase in loans was primarily driven by corporate short-term loans, with total loans growing by 7.1% year-on-year in June 2025, and the monthly increment was 2.24 trillion yuan, also surpassing expectations [15][20] - M1 growth accelerated to 4.6% year-on-year in June 2025, with M2 growth at 8.3%, indicating a narrowing gap between M2 and M1 growth rates [20][21] Structural Changes in Financing - The increase in social financing was mainly supported by government bonds and loans, with government bonds increasing by 507.2 billion yuan year-on-year [11][10] - Corporate direct financing also saw a year-on-year increase of 36.2 billion yuan, primarily due to a rise in bond financing [11][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The sports apparel sector is expected to continue outperforming the overall apparel market in the second half of the year, with a persistent K-shaped differentiation trend [3][8] - High-end sports outdoor brands are experiencing significant growth, while value-oriented brands are showing resilience [8] - The K-shaped differentiation reflects the segmentation of domestic consumption, creating investment opportunities at both ends of the market [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on Anta Sports (02020, Buy) due to its internationalization and multi-brand operational capabilities, along with several distinctive high-end brands [3] - Other companies to watch include 361 Degrees (01361, Not Rated), Xtep International (01368, Buy), and Tabo (06110, Hold) [3] Market Performance - In June, the retail sales growth for clothing, shoes, and textiles was 1.9%, with a year-to-date growth of 3.1% [8] - Major Hong Kong sports brands reported second-quarter revenue growth rates between low single digits to 10%, with overall growth for the first half mostly in the mid-single to 10% range, outperforming the overall apparel market [8] Consumer Trends - High-end outdoor brands like DESCENTE and KOLON SPORT under Anta saw growth rates of 50%-55% and 60%-65% respectively in Q2 and the first half of the year [8] - Xtep's Saucony brand also reported over 20% growth in Q2 and over 30% in the first half [8] - The demand for high-quality, professional, and health-oriented brands is increasing, leading to a shift in consumer preferences [8]

京东集团-SW 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 国补+外卖流量推动电商持续高增，外卖大 幅投入拖累利润 ——京东集团 25Q2 前瞻点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司电商主业在国补支持下仍然维持较高增速，但外卖投入加大拖累了公司整体利 润水平，下半年国补基数拉平后公司利润增速或将进一步下滑。预测公司 2025- 2027 年收入为 12891/13699/14323 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 12832/13637/14266 亿元），经调整归母净利润为 233/434/509 亿元（原 2025- 2027 年预测为 433/489/518 亿元）。参考可比公司，给予公司 2025 年零售+新业务 10X PE 估值，加上公司对外股权投资价值计算得公司目标市值为 4548 亿元，对应 每股股价 156.59 港元（人民币兑港币汇率 1.10），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 外卖亏损不及预期，以旧换新政策效果不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年07月15日） | 125 港元 | | 目标价格 | 156.59 港元 | | 52 ...

固定收益 | 专题报告 短端做底仓+挖掘收益率曲线"凸点" | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | 风险提示 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；模型测算误差；ABS 发行及投资热度不及预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误。 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 16 日 2025Q3 城投债策略 研究结论 | | | | 连续冲刺后，转债依旧看多：可转债市场 | 2025-07-14 | | --- | --- | | 周观察 | | | 寻找收益率曲线的"凸点"：信用债市场周 | 2025-07-13 | | 观察 | | | 把握权益催化行情，金融和科技是重点： | 2025-07-08 | | 可转债市场周观察 | | ⚫ Q3 城投债策略：短端做底仓+挖掘收益率曲线"凸点"。短端确定性强适合做底 仓，但也难有收益增强空间，Q3 同时需要继续拉久期贡献收益，挖掘收益率曲线 "凸点"。回顾 Q2 信用债策略表现，前半段受制于资金面不稳等问题，短端下沉是 确定性最强的策略，5 月情绪开始转向积极，6 月 ...

GE、普惠提升陶瓷基复材使用比例，公司 前瞻性卡位有望打造第二增长极 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到产品结构和价格波动，下调收入和毛利率，调整 25、26 年归母净利润为 4.32、5.89 亿元（前值为 7.06、9.37 亿元），新增 27 年归母净利润 7.58 亿元。参 考可比公司 25年估值水平，对应 25 年 42倍 PE，目标价 66.36元，维持增持评级。 风险提示：军品定价造成盈利能力波动风险；预研在研产品批产进度不及预期等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 917 | 1,139 | 1,355 | 1,753 | 2,189 | | 同比增长 (%) | 36.4% | 24.2% | 18.9% | 29.4% | 24.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 265 | 444 | 485 | 660 | 848 | | 同比增长 (%) | -29.1% | 67.5% | 9.1% | 36.3% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Neutral" [4][7][11] Core Views - The tavern industry is experiencing intensified competition, and the recovery for the company will take time [2][10] - The company is transitioning from a direct sales model to a franchise model, facing challenges during this shift [10] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 752 million yuan, a decrease of 37.76% year-on-year, with a net loss attributed to the transition [10][11] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 0.05, 0.06, and 0.09 yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, down from a previous estimate of 0.21 yuan for 2025 due to rapid closure of direct stores and increased franchise contributions [4][11] - The reasonable valuation level for the company is estimated at a 29 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 1.51 HKD [4][11] Financial Information - The company's revenue is expected to decline from 1,209 million yuan in 2023 to 575 million yuan in 2025, with a projected growth of 8.3% in 2026 and 12.8% in 2027 [6][10] - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 70.2% in 2023 to 45.8% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to recover to 15.5% by 2027 [6][10] - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 60 million yuan in 2025, recovering from a loss of 78 million yuan in 2024 [6][10]