Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to increase allocation to high-elasticity varieties while maintaining a short-duration defensive strategy in the bond market [6][11] - The credit bond market has experienced a new round of declines, with short-term bonds showing stronger stability compared to longer-term bonds, which are under pressure due to regulatory changes and market sentiment [12][11] - The report suggests focusing on medium to short-duration investments, particularly in high-grade credit bonds, as the market seeks certainty and low volatility [12][11] Group 2 - In the corporate perpetual bond sector, the report notes an increase in configuration value but advises caution against potential declines, especially in long-duration products [12][18] - The issuance of corporate perpetual bonds in September was 135 bonds totaling 141.4 billion, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous month, while the repayment scale also decreased [18][19] - The report highlights that the financing costs for AAA and AA+ rated bonds have increased, with rates at 2.34% and 2.57% respectively, indicating a tightening market [18][19] Group 3 - The ABS market is experiencing a slow adjustment in valuation, leading to a convergence in premiums compared to municipal investment bonds, with limited liquidity improvement expected [14][15] - The report recommends prioritizing ABS with a higher safety margin, such as those related to public housing and fee income rights, while cautioning against further exploration in the current environment [14][15] - The issuance of ABS in September reached 267.7 billion, with personal consumption loans and small loans leading the issuance volume [9][40] Group 4 - The report indicates that the secondary market for corporate perpetual bonds has seen a significant increase in yields, particularly in the medium to long-term segments, with credit spreads widening [30][31] - The report notes that the yield on AA-rated 5Y corporate perpetual bonds increased by up to 21 basis points, reflecting a broader trend of rising yields across various sectors [30][31] - The report highlights that the credit spreads for municipal perpetual bonds remained relatively stable, while industrial bonds exhibited greater volatility [32][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector in China [5] Core Views - The utility sector is expected to see a recovery in style as it approaches a bottoming out phase [2] - The report highlights that the demand for electricity is likely to remain high due to seasonal inventory replenishment and government policies aimed at stabilizing coal and electricity prices [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term investment in utility assets, particularly in the context of low interest rates and policy encouragement for long-term capital [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests a focus on utility stocks, particularly in the context of a favorable long-term investment environment for dividend assets [7] - Specific recommendations include: - Thermal Power: Expected profit growth in Q3 2025, with improved commercial models [7] - Hydropower: Suggests investing in high-quality large hydropower projects due to low cost per kilowatt hour [7] - Nuclear Power: Strong long-term growth potential with risks from market pricing already released [7] - Wind and Solar: Anticipated growth in electricity generation under carbon neutrality expectations [7] Industry Dynamics - The report notes a slight increase in coal prices at ports, with inventory levels rising [10][21] - The Three Gorges Reservoir has seen significant increases in both inflow and outflow, indicating improved hydropower generation conditions [29] - The utility sector index outperformed major indices, indicating strong market performance [35][37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The holiday data continues to validate the resilience of cultural and tourism consumption, with both short-term catalysts and mid-term growth logic present [3] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, indicating stable tourism activity and resilient travel demand [8] - The integration of cultural and tourism consumption is highlighted, with key retail and catering enterprises seeing a sales increase of 2.7% year-on-year during the holiday period [8] Summary by Sections Holiday Data Performance - The holiday period saw 888 million domestic trips, averaging 111 million trips per day, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [8] - Total domestic travel expenditure was 809 billion yuan, averaging 101.1 billion yuan per day, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [8] - Cross-regional personnel flow reached 2.432 billion trips, averaging 304 million trips per day, a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [8] Scenic Area Performance - Scenic areas generally experienced increased visitor numbers, with Emei Mountain receiving 371,000 visitors, a 41.3% increase [8] - The overall performance of Xinyuan Cultural Tourism's scenic areas reached a historical high, with 1.655 million visitors and revenue of 98.4 million yuan, marking a 20% increase [8] Duty-Free and Outbound Tourism - Hainan's duty-free shopping amounted to 944 million yuan, a 13.6% increase, with 122,900 shopping trips, indicating a recovery in outbound tourism [8] - Nationally, outbound travel reached 16.34 million trips, an 11.5% increase, with significant growth in foreign visitors [8] Consumer Behavior Trends - The holiday period exhibited three main characteristics: parallel long-distance and nearby travel, expansion of nighttime and experiential consumption, and more efficient transportation operations [8] - The integration of cultural and tourism sectors continues to drive growth, with a focus on enhancing travel experiences and innovative sales strategies [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The commercial cooking robot is in a phase of accelerated commercialization, significantly enhancing labor efficiency and standardization in kitchens, providing dual benefits of cost reduction and experience enhancement [3][8] - The adoption of cooking robots in the restaurant industry is driven by the need to reduce costs and meet the demand for freshly cooked meals, as the supply of chefs continues to shrink [8] - The future direction of cooking robots includes transitioning from single-machine automation to full-process collaboration, integrating with ERP systems, and achieving intelligent cooking capabilities through AI [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The restaurant industry is actively embracing cooking robots, with notable examples including Haidilao, Xiaocaiyuan, and Laoxiangji, which have integrated these technologies into their operations [8] Market Dynamics - The supply of chefs is decreasing, with training participants dropping from 77,000 in 2019 to 63,000 in 2024, a decline of 18% [8] - The post-pandemic restaurant industry faces cost pressures, prompting owners to reform kitchen processes to enhance efficiency [8] Technological Advancements - Current mainstream commercial cooking robots are priced around 50,000 yuan per unit, with expectations of price reductions as production scales and technology matures [8] - Future developments will focus on achieving full-process collaboration, autonomous cooking adjustments, and integration with supply chain management systems [8]

Trade Relations - Recent escalation in China-U.S. trade tensions, with the U.S. imposing 232 tariffs on wooden products and additional fees on Chinese vessels[6] - China has responded with countermeasures, including export controls on critical industries and technologies, particularly rare earth materials[6] - The U.S. plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and export controls on key software starting November 1, indicating a strategy to negotiate with China[6] Market Impact - Despite trade tensions, China's export share remains historically high, with WTO data showing resilience even during peak trade friction[6] - China's rare earth exports to countries like Japan and South Korea have resumed, excluding the U.S., complicating the situation for American industries reliant on these materials[6] Agricultural Dynamics - China, as the largest importer of U.S. soybeans (60% of global imports), has not booked any U.S. soybean shipments for Q4, raising concerns for U.S. agricultural states[6] - The U.S. soybean harvest season typically begins in September, and the lack of Chinese orders has led to fluctuating support rates for Trump in key agricultural states[6] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the current trade tensions are a short-term issue, with expectations for continued negotiations by the end of October[6] - The potential for U.S. soybean exports to China remains, as China's remaining import needs are comparable to last year's U.S. exports[6] - The report anticipates that global trade policy uncertainty will stabilize, allowing capital goods related to global industry migration to remain strong in exports[6]

Research Conclusion - The adjustment of the bond market in the third quarter was mainly due to two reasons: the repair of deflation expectations and regulatory policy changes. The negative impact of these two factors on the bond market will weaken in the fourth quarter [3][8]. - The bond market will "turn the corner" in the fourth quarter, but it won't happen overnight. The repair speed and rhythm in the fourth quarter are difficult to replicate those in April. The repair amplitude won't be large, and it's a relatively slow interest - rate peak - building process. The catalysts for the accelerated decline of interest rates are the relaxation of regulatory policies and the intensification of monetary policies [5][8][13]. - In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to try to slightly go long on bonds in the short term but in a cautious way. Currently, bond market investment opportunities are still in the form of bands, not trend - based long opportunities. The short - end is more stable than the long - end, and credit is more stable than interest rates. The short - duration and high - liquidity strategy of credit bonds has higher certainty [5][17]. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market Attention to September Data - China will release September's social financing, export, and inflation data, and the US will release September's PPI [18]. Seasonal Increase in Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds will increase seasonally but remains at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, with an expected total issuance of 443.3 billion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance of national bonds is around 261 billion yuan, local bonds is 32.3 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds is about 150 billion yuan [19][22][23]. Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds Net Withdrawal in Open - Market Operations at the Beginning of the Quarter - At the beginning of the quarter, a large number of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a significant net withdrawal in open - market operations. After the cross - quarter period, the central bank maintained a high - level reverse - repurchase injection, with a net injection of 114 billion yuan. However, due to a large number of maturities, the final net withdrawal was 153 billion yuan. The inter - bank funds rate seasonally declined at the beginning of the quarter. The trading volume of repurchase rose to over 750 billion yuan, and the overnight proportion fluctuated around 73% on average. In terms of price, the inter - bank funds rate significantly declined compared to the end of the previous quarter. The issuance volume of certificates of deposit increased, and most prices declined [24][26][31]. Recovery of Bond - Market Sentiment at the Beginning of the Quarter - At the end of the previous quarter, the market's expectation of the central bank's injection was unstable, and the liability - side stability of asset - management products was weak, leading to a strong willingness to realize profits, and ultimately a large increase in interest rates. After the holiday, the market sentiment marginally recovered, the funds rate declined, and the expectation of the central bank's loose monetary policy resurfaced, causing bond - market interest rates to return to a downward trend. On the 11th, Trump's tariff policy caused fluctuations again, driving interest rates down rapidly. Finally, the yields of the 10 - year treasury bond and the active state - development bond decreased by 4bp and 3.65bp respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.74% and 1.93%. The yields of interest - rate bonds with various maturities mainly declined [45]. High - Frequency Data Production - Side - The operating rates were divided. The blast - furnace operating rate remained flat at 84.3%, the semi - steel tire operating rate seasonally declined from 73.6% to 55.3%, and the PTA operating rate changed from 77.5% to 77.8%. The year - on - year growth rate of the average daily crude - steel output in early September turned negative, reaching - 8.6% [54]. Demand - Side - The year - on - year growth rates of the wholesale and retail sales of passenger - car manufacturers significantly improved. In the week of September 30th, the year - on - year growth rates of the wholesale and retail sales of passenger - car manufacturers were 57% and 43% respectively. The year - on - year growth rate of the commercial - housing transaction area turned positive. In the week of October 5th, the land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased, the land transaction area decreased, and the year - on - year growth rate turned positive. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities seasonally declined, but the year - on - year growth rate rapidly rose to a high of 58%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indexes changed by 4.1% and - 6.7% respectively [54]. Price - Side - Considering the price changes on October 11th compared to the end of the quarter (September 30th), the crude - oil price declined, the copper and aluminum prices increased, and the settlement price of the active coking - coal futures contract increased. In the mid - stream, the comprehensive building - materials price index slightly declined, and both the cement and glass indexes decreased. The output of rebar decreased, and inventory started to accumulate again. The futures price increased by 0.6% after the holiday. In the downstream consumer sector, the prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by - 1.2%, 2.3%, and - 2.8% respectively [55].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive and parts industry is maintained as Neutral [5] Core Insights - The report anticipates that competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology will continue to expand their market share by 2025 [3][15] - The report suggests ongoing attention to humanoid robotics, Huawei's supply chain, Xiaomi's supply chain, T-chain, and intelligent driving industry companies [3][15] - The expected impact of tariff fluctuations on certain export chains in the automotive parts sector is considered minimal [2][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Figure AI has officially launched the Figure 03 humanoid robot, which is expected to have strong mass production certainty, with a target annual production capacity of 12,000 units in its first phase [12] - The collaboration between Sairus and ByteDance's Volcano Engine aims to accelerate the development of the domestic robotics industry [13] - Tesla's Cybercab prototype has entered the collision testing phase, indicating readiness for mass production by 2026 [14] Sales Tracking - In September, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 2.77 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11%, while retail sales were 2.24 million units, up 6% year-on-year [19][22] Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 1.5% [26][28] - The passenger vehicle and automotive parts sectors showed weaker performance, with the automotive parts sector experiencing a significant drop of 2.45% [26][30] Key Company Announcements - Sairus announced a cooperation framework with ByteDance to enhance the application of AI in the automotive industry [39] - BYD reported a sales figure of 396,300 units in September, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [43] - SAIC Motor's sales in September reached 439,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 40.4% [45]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 保持短久期、高流动性策略 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 13 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 估值小幅修复，底仓品种价值显现：可转 | 2025-09-29 | | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry in China [6] Core Views - China's military trade market is expected to achieve new breakthroughs, with the successful establishment of a reusable rocket factory accelerating the low-orbit satellite network [2][11] - The procurement of 20 J-10CE fighter jets by Bangladesh for $2.2 billion signifies the growing recognition of Chinese military products and the potential for market expansion [10][15] - The completion of the first reusable rocket factory in Wenchang, Hainan, marks a significant advancement in commercial aerospace infrastructure, paving the way for scalable and reusable rocket development [10][17] Summary by Sections Military Trade Developments - Bangladesh plans to invest $2.2 billion to purchase 20 J-10CE fighter jets, with the total procurement cost including training and logistics expected to reach $2.2 billion [10][15] - The international competitiveness of Chinese military equipment is increasing due to enhanced technology performance and cost-effectiveness, transitioning from a focus on individual product advantages to comprehensive solution capabilities [16] Commercial Aerospace Advancements - The first reusable rocket assembly and testing factory in Wenchang, Hainan, has been completed, which will significantly enhance the production capacity and testing capabilities for reusable rockets [10][17] - The factory is expected to lower launch costs and accelerate the progress of commercial low-orbit satellite networks [17] Current Market Outlook - The military industry has stabilized recently, with a focus on domestic demand and military trade developments as key growth drivers [20] - The report highlights the importance of upstream components and key materials in supporting the lifecycle of various military equipment, indicating potential benefits from demand amplification effects [20] - The report suggests continued optimism for the military sector, with specific investment recommendations for various companies within the industry [10][20]

Group 1 - The overall situation between China and the US is expected to converge, with limited adverse effects on the market [3][15]. - China has taken proactive measures indicating a shift in power dynamics, enhancing national governance capabilities and boosting investor confidence in A-shares [4][16]. - The A-share market is predicted to experience short-term weakness but long-term strength, maintaining a sideways trend with limited downside in the short term [5][17]. Group 2 - Investment opportunities remain concentrated in the technology sector, particularly in computer/media and electronics/communication, with a focus on industrial software, foundational software, and AI applications [6][18]. - Strategic metals are favored, with gold expected to outperform rare earths and copper, driven by factors such as currency credit deterioration and demand from global infrastructure upgrades [7][19]. - The impact of tariff conflicts is deemed limited, as companies have already prepared for such risks [8][20].