固定收益 | 专题报告 配置价值显现，但建议等待更好交易时机 2025 年 9 月小品种策略 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；ABS 发行及投资热度不及预期；数据统计可能 存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 02 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | 科创债 ETF 成分券"超涨"利差有扩大潜 力：信用债市场周观察 2025-09-01 估值调整不改慢牛行情：可转债市场周观 察 2025-09-01 "股债跷跷板"或将继续弱化：固定收益 市场周观察 2025-09-01 有关分 ...

传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 谷歌 nano-banana 模型一致性强出圈，看 好多模态场景应用提速 核心观点 核心观点：谷歌最新 gemini-2.5-flash-image-preview（nano-banana）模型，具有 SOTA 的图像理解和编辑能力。我们认为相较此前竞品，nano-banana 模型在人物和 产品的一致性上有极高水准，生产效率提升或带来电商、广告素材 AI 渗透提速，释放 更多营销预算；并且图像生成和编辑作为 AI 视频创作工作流的前置步骤，以高一致性 的出图结果作为关键帧，对解决 AI 视频的一致性痛点亦有助益，建议关注多模态行业 下游场景 AI 应用深化带来的投资机会。 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 02 日 看好（维持） | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325888-3023 | | | liy ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 "股债跷跷板"或将继续弱化 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 转债仓位偏低，看多逻辑不变：可转债市 场周观察 2025-08-26 本轮赎回压力或止于基金端：固定收益市 场周观察 2025-08-25 补跌后骑乘空间增大，继续挖掘中短端城 投：信用债市场周观察 2025-08-25 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 上周"股债跷跷板"有所弱化，我们认为"股债跷跷板"或将继续弱化。一方面， 本轮股市上涨的原因并非是对经济数据上行的预期；另一方面，即使股市上涨，资 金利率也持续维持低位，信贷等融资需求也未见明显回升。因此我们认为前期"股 涨债跌"并非互为因果关系，而是股市与债市各自的原因所致，二者在时间维度上 有所重合。 ⚫ 因此，我们判断未来股票和债券走势将相对独立。"看股做债"并非优质策略，债 市利率下行并不能寄希望于股市调整，央行采取进一步宽松政策、配置型机构开始 加 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current momentum of convertible bonds comes from the equity market. In a slow - bull equity environment, the trend of convertible bonds remains unchanged, but the upward momentum has shifted from the first stage of rapid growth driven by both the underlying stock and valuation to the second stage of slow and volatile growth. This week's significant decline in valuation is likely a short - term low point. In the long run, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, and the market outlook remains positive, with more trading opportunities. The bond - selection strategy should not be overly aggressive [5][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Viewpoint: Valuation Adjustment Does Not Alter the Slow - Bull Market - Since late June, convertible bonds have risen with equities but experienced a significant pullback this week. The sharp compression of valuation led to underperformance compared to the underlying stocks, with the 100 - yuan premium rate compressed by over 4 percentage points. The adjustment was expected, but the magnitude was large. In an environment where fixed - income investors seek returns from equities due to declining pure - bond yields, the valuation of convertible bonds has continuously broken previous highs. High valuations do not cause trend - changing disturbances in a bull market but increase volatility during corrections. During this adjustment, there were signs of redemptions in secondary bond funds, while primary bond funds remained relatively stable, and ETFs continued to see net inflows [5][8] - This week, equities continued to rise with increasing trading volume. The margin trading balance exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, and the securities ETF had the largest net inflow. Driven by the "Artificial Intelligence +" policy, semiconductors and communication equipment (AI computing power chain) led the gains, and lithium - battery stocks led the rise due to strong performance from leading companies. While the market rose, volatility increased. The corrections on Tuesday and Wednesday cooled down the rapidly rising market, which is overall beneficial and lays a foundation for the slow - bull market [5][8] 2. Convertible Bond Review: Equity Volatility and Valuation Decline During the Week 2.1 Market Overall Performance: Equity Volatility and Consolidation, Technology Sector Leading the Gains - From August 25th to August 29th, the market showed a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.36%, the CSI 300 rose 2.71%, the CSI 1000 rose 1.03%, the ChiNext Index rose 7.74%, the STAR 50 rose 7.49%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.63%. In terms of industries, communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics led the gains. The average daily trading volume increased significantly by 397.513 billion yuan to 2.98 trillion yuan [11] - The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week were Weidao, Chongda, Jing23, Jincheng, Saili, Lingyi, Hongtu, Zhenghai, Yanggu, and Zhonglu convertible bonds. In terms of trading volume, Dayuan, Outong, Saili, Lingyi, Zhongqi, Dongjie, Jing23, Zhenghai, Chongda, and Dongshi convertible bonds were relatively active [11] 2.2 Both the Underlying Stock and Valuation Are Weak, with Smaller Declines in Large - Cap and AA+ Convertible Bonds - This week, convertible bonds were significantly affected by equity market volatility and declined. The average daily trading volume continued to rise to 100.704 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.58%, the parity center decreased by 0.8% to 111.2 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased by 3.0% to 18.7%. In terms of style, large - cap and AA+ convertible bonds had smaller declines this week, while high - priced and low - rated convertible bonds had larger declines [16]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 科创债 ETF 成分券"超涨"利差有扩大潜 力 信用债市场周观察 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 01 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | 研究结论 风险提示 转债仓位偏低，看多逻辑不变：可转债市 场周观察 2025-08-26 本轮赎回压力或止于基金端：固定收益市 场周观察 2025-08-25 补跌后骑乘空间增大，继续挖掘中短端城 投：信用债市场周观察 2025-08-25 2 ...

创新药加速放量，未来剑指全球 ——信立泰 2025 年中报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 | | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年08月29日） | 50.35 元 | | 目标价格 | 51.10 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 55.48/27.3 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 111,482/111,457 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 56,131 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 医药生物 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 09 月 01 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -4.53 | -1.2 | 11.27 | 67.89 | | 相对表现% | -7.24 | -9.5 | -5.27 | 30.7 | | 沪深 300% | 2.71 | 8.3 | 16.54 | 37.19 | ⚫ 根据 2025 年中报，我们维持原预测，预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.60/0.7 ...

泰恩康 301263.SZ 公司研究 | 中报点评 | | | ——泰恩康 2025 年中报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 25 年中报，我们下调两性健康和眼科用药营业收入预测，预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.27/0.53/0.92 元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 0.33/0.61/1.01 元），根据可比公司，给予公司 2026 年 70 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 37.10 元，维 持"增持"评级。 风险提示 研发进展不及预期风险；新产品放量低预期风险；市场竞争加剧风险；毛利率提升不及 预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 761 | 721 | 782 | 999 | 1,350 | | 同比增长 (%) | -2.9% | -5.2% | 8.4% | 27.8% | 35.1% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 191 | 109 | 121 | 239 | 428 | | 同比 ...

创新药加速放量，未来剑指全球 ——信立泰 2025 年中报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 2025 年中报，我们维持原预测，预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.60/0.70/0.82 元，根据可比公司，给予公司 2026 年 73 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 51.10 元，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示 集采续约低预期风险；研发进展不及预期风险；新产品放量低预期风险；市场竞争加剧 风险；费用（研发&销售）超预期风险；减值损失超预期风险；业绩增长不及预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3,365 | 4,012 | 4,429 | 5,335 | 6,137 | | 同比增长 (%) | -3.4% | 19.2% | 10.4% | 20.5% | 15.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 656 | 646 | 741 | 858 | 1,002 | | 同比增长 (%) | -9.8% | - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 200.0 HKD per share [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on two historical strategic opportunities: cloud computing and AI, with a strong commitment to increasing investments in these areas. The revenue from cloud services reached 334.0 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 25.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1 percentage points [7][11]. - The integration of the original Taotian Group and the local life group into the China e-commerce group reflects the company's strategy to concentrate on consumer-facing e-commerce and instant retail, as well as AI and cloud services [7][11]. - The company has seen significant improvements in its two main business lines, with AI cloud revenue contributing over 20% to external revenue and experiencing triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters [7][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 10049 billion CNY, 11256 billion CNY, and 12129 billion CNY for FY2026-2028, with adjusted net profits of 1405 billion CNY, 1866 billion CNY, and 2091 billion CNY respectively [8][11]. - The company reported a CMR of 892.5 billion CNY for FY26Q1, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, driven by commission adjustments and AI-driven improvements in site penetration [7][12]. Business Segments - The cloud business is expected to continue its rapid growth, with capital expenditures reaching 387.6 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 219.8% [7][11]. - The food delivery segment has shown high operational efficiency, with monthly active users exceeding 300 million and weekly orders maintaining above 80 million, indicating a narrowing gap with competitors [7][11]. Valuation - The report estimates the company's market value at 34772 billion CNY, corresponding to a per-share value of 200.00 HKD, based on a comprehensive valuation of its various business segments [8][22].

机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 海外人形机器人即将落地，板块格局确定 性有望上升 ——机器人产业跟踪 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 我们认为随着海外特斯拉机器人的落地，人形机器人板块格局的确定性有望上升，并带 来板块投资机会。我们建议关注具备优秀制造和管理能力的零部件企业，建议关注：拓 普集团(601689，买入)、三花智控(002050，买入)、五洲新春(603667，买入)、恒立液 压(601100，未评级)、震裕科技(300953，买入)。 风险提示 产品降价风险、场景需求落地不明确导致低于预期、国家政策变化导致行业发展放缓、 海外龙头厂商生产不及预期、行业融资不及预期、模型发展和数据采集慢于预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 08 月 31 日 看好（维持） 杨震 021-63325888*6090 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 | 人形机器人有望进入万台阶段，看好高壁 | 2025-08-24 | | --- | --- | | 垒环节和企业：——机器人产业跟踪 ...