魔芋等创新产品上新提速，胖东来验证健 康标签 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025–2027 年 EPS 分别为 0.74/ 0.84/ 1.00 元（原 25/26 年预测值为 0.79/0.98 元）下调 25–26 年盈利预测，主要反映以下两点：一是 2025Q1 业绩短 期承压，毛利率略降而销售及财务费用率同比提升，显示费用投放节奏相对前置； 二是公司持续加码新品研发、品牌投入与渠道深化（如胖东来、高端会员店等）， 短期内对盈利形成阶段性扰动。考虑长期成长逻辑未改，参考可比公司估值水平， 给予公司 2025 年 20 倍 PE，对应目标价 14.8 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 居民消费力不及预期；行业竞争加剧风险；渠道拓展不及预期风险；原材料价格波动等 风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,065 | 2,412 | 2,816 | 3,248 | 3,713 | | 同比增长 (%) | 4 ...

纺织服装行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 不确定性有望逐步消除，看好全球化布局 的制造龙头 ——简评美国宣布美越贸易达成初步贸易协议 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 随着贸易摩擦带来的不确定性逐步消除，我们认为后续纺织制造板块内具备优质海 外产能、业务垂直一体化程度较高且自身盈利能力相对较好的龙头公司下半年将逐 步迎来投资机会，重点看好申洲国际(02313，买入)、华利集团(300979，买入)、 伟星股份(002003，买入)，建 议 关 注 百隆东方(601339，未评级)、 晶苑国际 (02232，未评级)和健盛集团(603558，未评级)等。 风险提示：贸易谈判的反复、终端消费需求减弱、新品拓展不及预期等 国家/地区 中国 行业 纺织服装行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 施红梅 | 021-63325888*6076 | | --- | --- | | | shihongmei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860511010001 | | 李雪君 | 021-63325888*6069 | | | lixuejun@orients ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a recovery in revenue driven by third-party channels, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 842 million, 948 million, and 1,028 million RMB respectively [2][9]. - The company is enhancing its valuation support through high dividend payouts, with a proposed dividend of 0.6775 RMB per share for 2024, reflecting a payout ratio of 94.5% [8]. - The company is expanding its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, with established production centers in Thailand and Malaysia, aiming to replicate domestic channel efficiencies [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 6,148 million, 6,540 million, 7,101 million, 7,715 million, and 8,297 million RMB, with growth rates of 0.0%, 6.4%, 8.6%, 8.7%, and 7.5% respectively [4]. - The company's operating profit is forecasted to be 1,195 million, 1,108 million, 1,201 million, 1,312 million, and 1,409 million RMB for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 6.9%, -7.2%, 8.4%, 9.2%, and 7.4% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to show fluctuations, with a notable decrease in 2024A, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company is set at 15.1 HKD for 2025, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 times [2][9]. - The company's current market capitalization is approximately 14,410 million HKD [5]. Performance Analysis - The company's stock has shown a relative performance of 1.92% over the past week and 3.58% over the past month, indicating a positive trend compared to the Hang Seng Index [6].

25 年有望穿越债务周期，运营业务继续助 力转型突围 核心观点 近期，公司召开股东大会，管理层表示 2025 年到期债务已做好偿债铺排，年底有息负债 余额降至 1400 亿元左右。公司发布 5 月运营数据，1-5 月，公司运营业务收入 110.2 亿，同比持续增长。 资料来源：公司数据. 东方证券研究所预测. 每股收益使用最新股本全面摊薄计算. 龙湖集团 00960.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年07月02日） | 9.62 港元 | | 目标价格 | 10.24 港元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 19.68/7.33 港元 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） | 698,718/698,718 | | H 股市值（百万港币） | 67,217 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 房地产 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 07 月 04 日 | 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司凭借大体量且较为优质的经营性资产融资置换信用债以优化债务结构，财务安 全性提升。行业下行期开发业务形成一定拖累，而经营业务支撑利润基本盘， ...

固定收益 | 专题报告 适当牺牲流动性挖收益 2025 年 7 月小品种策略 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；ABS 发行及投资热度不及预期；数据统计可能 存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 03 日 齐晟 qisheng@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | | | 利差压缩行情或延续：固定收益市场周观 | 2025-07-01 | | --- | --- | | 察 | | | 7 月流动性或仍宽松：利率债市场周观察 | 2025-07-01 | | 债市"抢跑"行情或将延续：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | 场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 7月小品种主线：适当牺牲流动性选择信用小品种挖收益。考虑到在平稳跨季之后市 场乐观情绪更为一致，也有流动性宽松、固收资管产品扩张等因素支持，市场环境 整体友好无大潜在利空，我们建议 7 月可以延续牺牲流动性向久期、向品种要收益 的思路，还未到止 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from policy support and the active new consumption market, with high temperatures and low inventory during the air conditioning peak season likely to boost demand [2] - The adjustment of tariffs between Vietnam and the US is seen as a positive signal, enhancing the competitiveness of home appliance production capacity in Southeast Asia [6] - The potential for emerging markets in exports is promising, and the global supply chain advantages should be emphasized [2][6] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on quality white goods leaders that benefit from domestic policy continuity and are actively expanding overseas, such as Midea Group (000333, not rated), Haier Smart Home (600690, Buy), and Hisense Home Appliances (000921, not rated) [2] - Companies like Hisense Visual (600060, Overweight) and Ousheng Electric (301187, Buy) are recommended for their potential in mature overseas markets and short-term global supply chain advantages [2] - The report highlights the positive changes in leading clean and small appliance companies, recommending Stone Technology (688169, Buy) and Bear Electric (002959, Overweight) [2] - It also suggests monitoring kitchen appliance companies like Robam Appliances (002508, Buy) and Vatti Corporation (002035, not rated) as the negative impact from real estate eases [2] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the production capacity layout in Southeast Asia is characterized by both offensive and defensive strategies, which may enhance global competitiveness in the long term [6] - The profitability of production in Southeast Asia is expected to gradually improve as local supply chains become more complete, reducing costs [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with global production capacity layouts, which will enhance their bargaining power and profitability in the context of unstable trade policies with the US [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [5] Core Viewpoints - The focus is on investment opportunities in the stable and high-dividend electro-aluminum sector [2][9] - Short-term demand concerns are alleviated, with a greater emphasis on supply-side logic for mid-term investments [8][13] - Long-term stable and low-cost electricity supply is a critical constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - The supply-demand balance is expected to ensure stable profitability and dividends, making the electro-aluminum sector a true dividend asset [14] Summary by Sections Electro-Aluminum Sector - Concerns about downstream demand affecting short-term profitability are noted, but the report argues that short-term demand is not a worry [8][13] - Inventory levels in the electro-aluminum sector are decreasing, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [8][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable, low-cost electricity supply as a hard constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - Future profitability is expected to be stable, with major companies potentially achieving a dividend yield close to 6% [14] Steel Sector - The steel industry is entering a demand lull, with a focus on monitoring production reduction policies [15] - Rebar production has increased significantly, with a slight rise in consumption [15][16] - Total steel inventory has seen a slight increase week-on-week but a significant decrease year-on-year [22] - Steel prices have shown a slight decline, with the overall price index down by 0.49% [35][36] New Energy Metals - Lithium production in May 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 31.37% [39] - The production of new energy vehicles in China has also risen sharply, with a 33.02% increase in production [43] - Prices for lithium and nickel have shown an upward trend, indicating a robust market [48][49]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of 136.08 CNY based on a 42x PE ratio for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic semiconductor cleaning and plating equipment market, with a strong focus on platformization and differentiation to drive growth [1][9]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue between 6.5 billion to 7.1 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16% to 26% [9]. - The semiconductor equipment industry is experiencing significant growth, with China's semiconductor equipment spending projected to reach 49.6 billion USD in 2024, a 35% increase year-on-year [9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to have earnings per share of 3.24 CNY, 4.04 CNY, and 4.63 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2023 to 2027 show a consistent upward trend, with total revenue expected to grow from 3.888 billion CNY in 2023 to 9.156 billion CNY in 2027 [4]. - The company’s net profit is anticipated to increase from 911 million CNY in 2023 to 2.045 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory [4]. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leader in the semiconductor equipment sector, with a comprehensive product range that includes cleaning, plating, and advanced packaging equipment [19][24]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with a significant increase in R&D expenditure from 141 million CNY in 2020 to 729 million CNY in 2024, supporting its innovation-driven strategy [33][49]. - The company has a well-defined strategic roadmap, transitioning from a single-product focus to a diversified platform strategy that includes six major product lines [23][48]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company aims to capture 55% to 60% of the domestic semiconductor cleaning equipment market, leveraging its technological differentiation and strong R&D capabilities [10]. - The company has developed proprietary technologies such as SAPS and TEBO, which enhance its competitive edge in the cleaning equipment market [46][47]. - The company has established stable relationships with major semiconductor manufacturers, enhancing its market presence and customer base [36][37]. Growth Drivers - The ongoing shift towards high-end semiconductor equipment and the increasing domestic demand for advanced packaging solutions are key growth drivers for the company [9][10]. - The company’s platformization strategy is expected to open new revenue streams and enhance its market competitiveness across various semiconductor equipment segments [11][12]. - The anticipated growth in global semiconductor production capacity and the increasing trend of localization in semiconductor manufacturing will further benefit the company [9][19].

盐津铺子 002847.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年07月01日） | 81.35 元 | | 目标价格 | 91.84 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 99.98/35.02 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 27,278/24,572 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 22,191 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 07 月 02 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 0.28 | -7.9 | 21 | 89.83 | | 相对表现% | -0.71 | -10.57 | 19.58 | 76.47 | | 沪深 300% | 0.99 | 2.67 | 1.42 | 13.36 | 谢宁铃 xieningling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520070001 ⚫ 出海布局升级，开启全球化第二增长曲线。 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 经济短期动能增强，但实体经营预期下行 ——6 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 可以交叉印证的是，采购、库存、生产经营预期等分项的走势依然显示当前新出口 订单可能短单居多，长单不足，导致当下产需回暖，但对美国关税豁免到期后的经 营预期依然偏弱。6 月原材料库存、产成品库存、采购量、进口 PMI 分别为 48%、 48.1%、50.2%、47.8%（47.4%、46.5%、47.6%、47.1%），均上升，但生产经 营活动预期为 52%（52.5%）。 | 缩量与前置：关税反复后的出口预判 | 2025-06-30 | | --- | --- | | 东方战略观察：伊以冲突走向缓和，全球 | 2025-06-28 | | 风险偏好提升 | | | 美元短期反弹，并不意味趋势反转：—— | 2025-06-26 | | 海外札记 20250623 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 6 月 PMI 数据延续回升趋势，结构特点大体与上个月相同，但上行斜率放缓，其中 暗含了新的线索。 ...