高端项目蓄势待发，业绩改善前景可期 ——常宝股份 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 2024 年报，我们做出下调公司钢管产品销量、小幅下调公司产品毛利率等 调整，预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 0.74、0.83、0.92 元（2025-2026 年原预 测值为 0.99、1.10 元）。根据可比公司 2025 年 11X 的 PE 估值，对应目标价 8.14 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 下游油气及火电资本开支不及预期风险、汽车精密管及特材项目释放不及预期风险、原 材料价格波动风险、汇率大幅波动及出口环境变化风险、宏观经济不及预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 6,661 | 5,696 | 6,194 | 6,914 | 7,425 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.0% | -14.5% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 7.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 852 | 76 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 固定收益市场周观察 利率方向回归下行后，幅度取决于资金 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 14 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 转债市场 25 年一季度回顾及展望 | 2025-04-08 | | --- | --- | | 4 月或是供给压力缓和期：固定收益市场 | 2025-04-08 | | 周观察 | | | 2025Q1 信用债市场回顾与展望 | 2025-04-07 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic demand and opportunities for domestic substitution of new materials. It highlights the recent exemption of certain tariffs in the U.S., which has led to a noticeable reduction in oil price declines. The report suggests a focus on leading companies with strong fundamentals that are less correlated with oil prices, recommending bottom-fishing strategies. Additionally, it advises attention to the agricultural chemical sector due to its rigid demand during the spring farming season [13][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the U.S. has exempted some tariffs, leading to a significant narrowing of oil price declines. It recommends focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals and less correlation to oil prices, while also suggesting bottom-fishing strategies. The report highlights the agricultural chemical sector as a key area of interest due to its rigid demand during the spring farming season [13]. 2. Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of April 11, Brent oil price decreased by 1.3% to $64.76 per barrel. The U.S. commercial oil inventory stood at 442.3 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 2.6 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.6 million barrels, while distillate inventory decreased by 3.5 million barrels. The report monitors 188 chemical products, with the top three price increases being Vitamin K3 (up 5.6%), international urea (up 5.2%), and monoammonium phosphate (up 4.3%). The top three price decreases were liquid chlorine (down 16.3%), WTI (down 16.2%), and crude oil (down 15.5%) [14][15]. 3. Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends several companies for investment: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [13]. - Huangma Technology: A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase again [13]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd.: A rare company with a global layout for formulation registration and sales channels [13]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd.: A leading domestic differentiated formulation company in the plant growth regulator industry [13]. - Hualu Hengsheng: Core product prices are recovering, coupled with falling coal prices, leading to continuous improvement in price differentials [13].

业绩高增，扩表提速 ——杭州银行 2024 年年报点评 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 结合财报数据，适度上调规模增速、不良生成等假设，预测公司 25/26/27 年归母净 利润同比增速为 16.5%/15.1%/15.7%，BVPS 为 19.87/22.75/26.09 元（25/26 年前 预测值 20.26/23.25 元）。相比可比公司维持 20%估值溢价，对应 25 年 0.83 倍 PB，目标价 16.48 元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；信贷需求不及预期；资产质量恶化。 资料来源：公司数据. 东方证券研究所预测. 每股收益使用最新股本全面摊薄计算. 杭州银行 600926.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月11日） | 14.43 元 | | 目标价格 | 16.48 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 15.06/10.61 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 631,236/580,828 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 91,087 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | ...

业绩超预期，分红创新高 ——久立特材 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于公司高端产品持续发力，无缝管、管件等产品毛利率超预期，我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 1.75、1.93 和 2.14 元（原 2025-2026 年每股收益的预测值 为 1.67、1.84 元）。以 DCF 法进行估值，目标价 32.04 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 下募投项目进度不及预期风险、产品升级不及预期风险、宏观经济增速放缓、能源价格 大幅波动风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,568 | 10,918 | 13,106 | 13,729 | 14,554 | | 同比增长 (%) | 31.1% | 27.4% | 20.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,734 | 1,813 | 2,036 | 2,239 | 2,491 | | 同比增长 (%) | 24.8% ...

核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报调整营收增速、毛利率和费用率，下调 25、26 年归母净利润为 5.84、7.69 亿元（前值为 8.44、10.41 亿元），新增 27 年归母净利润为 9.62 亿元， 参考可比公司 25 年 67 倍 PE，给予目标价 65.66 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；终端射频芯片业务开拓进度不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3,567 | 2,591 | 3,352 | 4,321 | 5,386 | | 同比增长 (%) | 3.1% | -27.4% | 29.4% | 28.9% | 24.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 654 | 514 | 621 | 817 | 1,021 | | 同比增长 (%) | 17.3% | -21.4% | 20.8% | 31.6% | 25.0% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 606 | 485 ...

业绩高增，扩表提速 ——杭州银行 2024 年年报点评 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 结合财报数据，适度上调规模增速、不良生成等假设，预测公司 25/26/27 年归母净 利润同比增速为 16.5%/15.1%/15.7%，BVPS 为 19.87/22.75/26.09 元（25/26 年前 预测值 20.26/23.25 元）。相比可比公司维持 20%估值溢价，对应 25 年 0.83 倍 PB，目标价 16.48 元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；信贷需求不及预期；资产质量恶化。 资料来源：公司数据. 东方证券研究所预测. 每股收益使用最新股本全面摊薄计算. 杭州银行 600926.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月11日） | 14.43 元 | | 目标价格 | 16.48 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 15.06/10.61 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 631,236/580,828 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 91,087 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | ...

业绩超预期，分红创新高 ——久立特材 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于公司高端产品持续发力，无缝管、管件等产品毛利率超预期，我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 1.75、1.93 和 2.14 元（原 2025-2026 年每股收益的预测值 为 1.67、1.84 元）。以 DCF 法进行估值，目标价 32.04 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 下募投项目进度不及预期风险、产品升级不及预期风险、宏观经济增速放缓、能源价格 大幅波动风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,568 | 10,918 | 13,106 | 13,729 | 14,554 | | 同比增长 (%) | 31.1% | 27.4% | 20.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,734 | 1,813 | 2,036 | 2,239 | 2,491 | | 同比增长 (%) | 24.8% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The automotive market is benefiting from policies supporting vehicle scrappage and replacement, as well as advancements in intelligent driving technology, leading to strong growth in both overall and new energy vehicle sales [12][30] - The new tariff policies announced by Trump are expected to benefit companies that establish factories in North America, particularly those in the parts sector [13] - The report suggests continued focus on humanoid robotics and competitive domestic brands in the automotive sector, with expectations for market share expansion among leading new energy vehicle companies [3][14] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on humanoid robotics and companies within the Huawei, Xiaomi, T chain, and intelligent driving sectors, anticipating profit and valuation increases [3][14] - Suggested companies for investment include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, GAC Group, Yutong Bus, and several parts manufacturers such as Newquay, Silver Wheel, and Top Group [3][15] Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance this week showed a decline of 5.4%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which fell by 2.9% [16] - The parts sector experienced a significant drop of 8.30%, while the automotive sales and service sector fell by 8.73% [16] Sales Tracking - In March, the wholesale sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.412 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% and a month-on-month increase of 36.4% [12][24] - New energy passenger vehicle sales in March were particularly strong, with wholesale sales of 1.128 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.5% [28][30] Industry News - The report highlights the launch of new models such as the BYD Han L and BYD Tang L, which are expected to enhance sales performance [33][34] - The report also notes the anticipated performance of companies like Changan Automobile and BYD in the upcoming quarters, with significant profit growth expected [39][42]

盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报调整营收增速、毛利率和费用率，下调 25、26 年归母净利润为 5.84、7.69 亿元（前值为 8.44、10.41 亿元），新增 27 年归母净利润为 9.62 亿元， 参考可比公司 25 年 67 倍 PE，给予目标价 65.66 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；终端射频芯片业务开拓进度不及预期。 业绩承压下盈利能力有所改善，持续开拓 新领域培育新增长点 核心观点 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3,567 | 2,591 | 3,352 | 4,321 | 5,386 | | 同比增长 (%) | 3.1% | -27.4% | 29.4% | 28.9% | 24.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 654 | 514 | 621 | 817 | 1,021 | | 同比增长 (%) | 17.3% | -21.4% | 20.8% | 31.6% | 25.0% ...