[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|计算机 2024 年 8 月 8 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 计算机行业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------|----------|------------------------------------------| | | | | 从海外云科技公司最新财报看 AI 投入与产出 | | 分析师： [Tabl | 刘雪峰 | 分析师： | 周源 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260514030002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523040001 | | | SFC CE.no: BNX004 | | | | | 021-38003675 | | 0755-23948351 | | | gfliuxuefeng@gf.com.cn | | shzhouyuan@gf.com.cn | | | | | | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 海外云科技公司密集发布 24Q2 财报。2024 年 7 月底 8 月 ...

[Table_Title] 永泰能源（600157.SH） 拟收购煤矿增厚煤电根基，融资能力逐步修复 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 公司发布发行股份购买资产预案、采矿权进展、银团贷款授信、经营业 绩预测公告： ⚫ 拟收购优质焦煤矿增厚煤电主业根基。公司拟以发行股份方式收购天 悦煤业 51.0095%股权，交易对价不超过 3.5 亿元，发行价格 1.29 元/ 股，收购后公司持有天悦煤业 63.2571%股份。据公告，对标的资产进 行整合、引入公司管理模式后预计天悦煤业并表年均净利润 1.6 亿元。 ⚫ 推进获取铝土矿采矿权，有望带动潜在业绩弹性。公司公告所属森达 源煤矿等 8 座矿井预估铝土矿资源量 1.16 亿吨，正积极推进采矿权获 取等工作，按现有产能 690 万吨/年、煤下铝生产成本 300 元/吨、周边 同类型产品销售价格 450 元/吨计算，公司预计获得采矿权后每年可增 加营收逾 27 亿元、净利润约 4.6 亿元，有望带动潜在业绩弹性。 ⚫ 获 50 亿元银团贷款授信，信用融资能力逐步修复。公司公告所属陕西 亿华海则滩煤矿 50 亿元银团贷款授信获得浦发银行审批通过，公司信 用融 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 12.90 CNY and a fair value of 16.18 CNY [1][3]. Core Views - The company has a stable credit rating of AAA from China Chengxin International, with a stable outlook. The rating is valid from July 29, 2024, to July 29, 2025 [2]. - The company forecasts a Q2 net profit of 0.67-0.87 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 35.7%-50.4%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.9%-49.2% [2]. - The company expects to produce 38.98 million tons of coal in 2023 and plans to maintain production of no less than 33 million tons in 2024 [2][3]. - The company has a strong cost advantage in coal production, with net profit per ton exceeding 200 CNY for its main mines [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for the first half of 2023, with expected figures between 1.25-1.45 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 52.6%-59.1% [2]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 32.10 billion CNY, down 14.1% from 2023, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [3][12]. - The company’s EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.62, 1.76, and 1.85 CNY per share, respectively [3][8]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, achieving 63% and 64% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, with a planned increase to over 60% from 2024 to 2026 [3][8]. Market Position - The company benefits from a relatively new coal mining infrastructure and a light personnel burden, positioning it favorably within the Shanxi coal industry [3][8]. - The company’s major shareholder, Shanxi Coking Coal Group, provides significant resource advantages [3][8].

证券研究报告 [公司评级 Table_Invest] 增持 当前价格 3.16 元 合理价值 3.76 元 报告日期 2024-08-08 总股本/流通股本（百万股） 4801.86/4801.86 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 15173.87/15173.87 一年内最高/最低（元） 4.03/2.63 30 日日均成交量/成交额（百万） 61.66/206.23 近 3 个月/6 个月涨跌幅（%） -13.90/2.93 [Table_Finance] 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 6264 6197 7071 6938 6983 增长率（%） 62.2% -1.1% 14.1% -1.9% 0.6% EBITDA（百万元） 2383 2536 3417 3317 3291 归母净利润（百万元） 1434 1557 2239 2176 2144 增长率（%） 383.9% 8.6% 43.8% -2.8% -1.5% EPS（元/股） 0.30 0.32 0.47 0.45 0.45 市盈率（P/E） 13.33 8.73 6.78 6.97 7.08 R ...

[Table_Title] 基础化工行业 巴斯夫确认不可抗力，VA/VE 景气再加速 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 事件：BASF 路德维希港基地维生素等装置确认发生不可抗力。据德 国化工巨头巴斯夫官网 8 月 7 日公告，由于 7 月 29 日在德国路德维 希港工厂发生火灾，公司部分维生素 A、维生素 E 和类胡萝卜素产品 以及部分香气成分产品的交付受到不可抗力的影响。 ⚫ 24Q1 起，国内 VA、VE 等维生素市场已陆续进入上涨通道。分析其 原因：（1）超跌。截止 24.04，国内 VA/VE 价格分别处于自 2007 年 以来 16%/1%价格分位，产品超跌、工厂亏损；（2）终端低库存。前 期价格持续下跌，"买涨不买跌"下，终端库存不足；（3）终端养殖 需求修复。国内生猪养殖利润较年初已扭亏为盈。截止 24.08，国内 生猪养殖利润 494.50 元/头；（4）停产检修致有效产能去化。根据秣 宝网，24H1，巴斯夫维生素 A 曾检修两个月、浙江医药曾因原材料 短缺 VE 停报；（5）海外补库致出口旺盛。根据 Wind 数据，24H1， 国内 VA/VE 分别出口 0.29/5.50 ...

专业、专心、专为您 2023年8月9日 资讯服务类投资顾问团队 联系人：古欣怡 电话：020-66995384 财经新闻精选 上海印发《上海市交通领域大规模设施设备更新专项工作方案（2024-2027年）》 三部门明确2024年度享受增值税加计抵减政策的工业母机企业清单制定工作有关事项 《上海市教育领域推动大规模设备更新专项行动计划》印发 三部门：2025年建设100家企业和园区碳排放管理标准化试点 浙江：到2035年全面建成高水平民航强省和低空经济发展高地 市场热点聚焦 市场点评：指数弱势震荡，维生素及种业概念股走强 宏观视点：2024年7月进出口数据点评 机械设备行业：设备更新政策与降息落地，提振稳定型资产投资 新股申购提示 8月9日暂无新股申购 重点个股推荐 参见《早盘视点》完整版（定制路径：发现页-独家-投顾精华-早盘视点） 财经新闻精选 上海印发《上海市交通领域大规模设施设备更新专项工作方案（2024-2027年）》 据上海市人民政府网站消息，上海市交通委、市发展改革委、市生态环境局、民航华东 1 专业、专心、专为您 地区管理局、市邮政局联合印发《上海市交通领域大规模设施设备更新专项工作方案 （20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 8.31 CNY and a reasonable value of 10.97 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company has shown a turnaround in its performance, with a significant improvement in profitability. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16.64% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, outperforming expectations [2][3]. - Revenue for the first half of 2024 decreased by 3.27% year-on-year, but when excluding the impact of a one-time factor from the previous year, it showed a growth of 1.45%. The recovery in revenue growth is attributed to increased credit issuance, improved liability structure, and expected marginal contributions from the bond market [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, total assets and total loans grew by 3.6% and 6.8% year-on-year, respectively. The loan growth rate significantly outpaced total asset growth, contributing positively to the interest margin [2]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of H1 2024 was 1.41%, a decrease of 4 basis points from Q1 2024. The provision coverage ratio increased to 175.37%, indicating improved asset quality [2][3]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to continue its recovery, with projected net profit growth rates of 14.90% and 8.30% for 2024 and 2025, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.25 CNY and 1.37 CNY for the same years [3]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected at 6.62X for 2024 and 6.05X for 2025, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to be 0.38X and 0.36X for the same periods [3]. Risk Management - The company has been actively managing risks by focusing on reducing existing non-performing assets while controlling new risks. This strategy has led to a decrease in credit costs, contributing positively to profitability [2][3].

[Table_Title] 平煤股份（601666.SH） 控股股东增持彰显中长期发展信心，低估值高股息优势突出 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 控股股东拟增持公司股份 3-6 亿元，彰显对公司中长期发展信心。公 司发布公告，控股股东中国平煤神马集团计划自 7 月 30 日起的 6 个月 内以集中竞价的方式增持公司股份，增持金额不低于 3 亿元、不超过 6 亿元，增持比例不超过公司总股本的 2%。 2023 年以来，公司持续通过控股股东增持、管理层增持、回购股份等 方式维护公司股价。其中 23 年 8-9 月，公司董高监 13 人计划增持 28- 43 万股，实际增持 29.5 万股；控股股东管理层共 4 人计划增持 10-20 万股；23 年 8 月，控股股东中国平煤神马集团计划增持 1-2 亿元，实 际增持金额 1.1 亿元；23 年 9 月，公司计划回购股份 2-3 亿元，截至 7 月 31 日已完成回购 2.83 亿元。 公司 Q2 原煤产量已基本恢复正常，预计下半年销量环比将明显改善。 根据公司经营数据公告，公司 Q2 原煤产量 758 万吨（同比持平/环比 +14%），自产煤销量 56 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [3]. Core Views - The China Communications Construction Group has proposed to implement a mid-term dividend plan for 2024, suggesting a dividend amount not exceeding the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024 [1]. - New contracts signed in Q2 2024 show stable growth, with a total of 453.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and significant growth in overseas contracts, which rose by 82% [1]. - The company is focusing on state-owned enterprise reform to enhance value creation and realization, including stock incentives and plans for a separate listing of its design unit [1]. - The company aims to achieve a net profit of 25.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 8% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 758.7 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.1%. The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 23.8 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 23.6% [2]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 25.7 billion yuan in 2024, with an EPS of 1.58 yuan per share [2]. - The P/E ratio for 2024 is estimated at 5.47, indicating a favorable valuation [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing shareholder returns by increasing the dividend payout ratio to 20% in 2023, with expected dividend yields of 3.7% for A-shares and 7.6% for H-shares in 2024 [1]. - The focus on urban construction and overseas markets is expected to drive growth, particularly in regions like the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia [1]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a new contract growth rate of at least 13.2% and revenue growth of 8.2% in 2024 [1]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 25.7 billion yuan, 27.7 billion yuan, and 29.9 billion yuan, respectively [2].

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 公告点评|出版 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 皖新传媒（601801.SH） 控股股东提议中期分红，提质增效重回报 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 事件：公司昨日收到控股股东出具的《关于 2024 年度中期分红的提 议》，为提升上市公司的投资价值，控股股东提议 2024 年度中期向全 体股东派发现金红利 0.10 元/股（含税），上市公司将拟定 2024 年度 中期分红方案并提交董事会、股东大会审议。2023 年度公司已将年末 分红金额从 2022 年度的 0.185 元/股大幅提高至 0.305 元/股，2024 年 度再度提议增加中期分红，这彰显了公司充沛的现金流实力、对未来发 展前景的坚定信心、与投资者共享发展成果的理念。目前在 A 股的教 育出版板块中，皖新传媒的在手现金规模、回购金额、分红比例和股息 率均位居板块前列。 盈利预测与投资建议。我们预计 2024-2026 年，公司的营业收入为 111.61/113.34/115.42 亿元，归母净利润为 8.93/10.42/11.51 亿元。因 公司此前享受的免征企业 ...