[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|计算机 2024 年 7 月 31 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 计算机行业 微软财报显示，ROI 加速下探将加剧供应链预期波动 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | 分析师： [Tabl | 刘雪峰 | 分析师： | 周源 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260514030002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523040001 | SFC CE.no: BNX004 021-38003675 0755-23948351 gfliuxuefeng@gf.com.cn shzhouyuan@gf.com.cn 请注意，周源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 微软发布 FY24Q4 财报，业绩基本符合预期。根据财报，FY24 全年（截止至 2024 年 6 月 ...

[Table_Title] 【 广 发 商 社 & 海 外 】 上 美 股 份 （02145.HK） 供应链+强运营难以复制，二三品牌起势 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 事件：公司发布盈利预告，24H1 预计收入 34-36 亿元，同比增长 114- 127%，预计 24H1 净利润 3.9-4.1 亿元，同比增长 286-306%。 ⚫ 点评：上半年业绩如期兑现，收入及利润增加主要由于公司主力品牌韩 束产生的收入多渠道快速增长及公司第二品牌梯队newpage一页的销 售业绩同比大幅增长。 ⚫ 业绩拆分：预计韩束翻倍以上增长，一页表现亮眼。24H1 预计韩束收 入翻倍以上增长，一页 2 倍以上增长，红色小象和一叶子仍下滑。根 据蝉妈妈数据，24H1 韩束抖音 GMV 同比+279%、一叶子抖音 GMV 同比+18%、红色小象抖音 GMV 同比+222%、一页抖音 GMV 同比 +209%。韩束抖音短剧独家运营模式，强供应链下套组高性价比，难 以被复制。董事长吕总给激励充分，公司新品牌多采取与创始人分享股 权的方式，以 new page 为例，30%的股权为章子怡持有。 ⚫ 盈利预测和投资建议 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 31.74 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 25.38 CNY [3][11]. Core Insights - The company achieved significant growth in H1 2024, with revenue reaching 1.84 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million CNY, up 104.5% year-on-year [1][9]. - The growth is driven by the expansion of the charging pile business and the recovery of traditional business segments, with expectations for continued robust performance in 2024 [1][10]. - The company has officially launched its factory in the United States, which is expected to enhance its charging pile business and meet local regulatory requirements [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.84 billion CNY, a 27.2% increase from the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million CNY, reflecting a 104.5% increase [1][9]. - **Segment Performance**: The charging pile business continues to grow rapidly, while traditional business segments are expected to maintain steady growth. For instance, the software upgrade service generated 211 million CNY in revenue, a 26.3% increase year-on-year [1][9]. - **Future Projections**: The company forecasts net profits of 574 million CNY, 649 million CNY, and 783 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.27 CNY, 1.44 CNY, and 1.73 CNY [11][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report suggests a reasonable valuation multiple of 25x PE for 2024, leading to a target price of 31.74 CNY per share [11][12]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 15.1% in 2024, increasing to 15.0% by 2026 [2][11].

[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|保险Ⅱ [Table_Title] 【 广 发 非 银 & 海 外 】 中 国 财 险 （02328.HK） 海外财险公司的估值及中国财险 ROE 拆解 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： （除特别注明外，报告货币为人民币） 从全球龙头财险公司的经验看，（1）PB 估值水平和 ROE 之间具备显 著的正相关性，如前进保险的 ROE 从 2015 年的 17.8%提升至 2018 年的 26.5%，PB 从 2.1X 提升至 3X，好事达 ROE 从 2015 年的 10.6% 提升至 2019 年的 21.7%，PB 估值从 1.07X 提升至 1.35X，且短期的 ROE 下降不会影响估值中枢水平；（2）海外龙头财险公司近年来大部 分 ROE 在两位数以上，且对应 PB 在 1X 以上；（3）ROE 的变化受保 费收入增速、承保利润和投资的影响。（报告汇率 HKD/CNY=0.925） 展望中国财险 24-26 年 ROE 为 11.3%-12%。(1)保费预期：车险方面， 机动车保有量稳定增长，而人保有望凭借品牌和服务优势实现承保数 量的提升，另外短期看报行 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [3]. Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations with its advanced repair orders, doubling the total compared to last year, with a total of 460 billion yuan in contracts signed for June-July 2024, including 137 billion yuan for high-speed trains [1]. - A new wave of major maintenance cycles for rail transit is underway, with the company’s repair income expected to enter a definitive upward phase as high-speed trains enter the fifth-level repair cycle [1]. - Higher profit margins and shorter delivery cycles in the maintenance business are expected to enhance the company's earnings flexibility, with significant growth in high-level repair and major repair orders anticipated [1]. - Profit forecasts indicate that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 13.8 billion yuan, 15.6 billion yuan, and 17.1 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively, with a target PE valuation of 18x for A-shares, corresponding to a fair value of 8.67 yuan per share [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 222.94 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 234.26 billion yuan in 2023 and further growth to 262.17 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 11.9% [2]. - The company's net profit for 2022 was 11.65 billion yuan, with an expected increase to 13.82 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18% growth rate [2]. - The report indicates an EBITDA of 20.47 billion yuan for 2022, projected to grow to 24.17 billion yuan in 2024 [2].

请注意，耿鹏智,尉凯旋并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员 会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Page] 公司深度研究|专业工程 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 中钢国际（000928.SZ） 国际化提速叠加手握低碳冶金核心技术，论中钢国际进阶之路 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 冶金工程空间测算：2023 年全球冶金工程市场规模超 6000 亿元。按 照下游钢铁厂资本开支估算冶金工程市场规模，2023 年国内钢铁企业 资本开支总和 1827 亿元，单吨钢铁产量对应资本开支 179 元；海外 钢铁企业资本开支约合人民币 4723 亿元，单吨钢铁产量对应资本开支 541 元。全球钢铁企业资本开支共计 6549 亿元，市场空间广阔。 ⚫ 冶金工程市场格局：头部集中度高，国际化业务占主流。2023 年全球 7 家头部公司冶金工程总收入约合人民币 2725 亿元，占全球市场份额 41.6%，中钢国际市场份额 3.8%；收入增速方面，头部企业普遍放缓， 中钢国际逆势上涨 42.9%；国际化业务方面，海外龙头企业以境外收 入为主，部分企业境外收入近 8 成，中钢国际境外收入占比 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 28.68 CNY per share based on a 30x PE for 2024 [3]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the sensitive toothpaste segment, with revenue growth from 944 million CNY in 2019 to 1.376 billion CNY in 2023, and net profit increasing from 63 million CNY to 141 million CNY during the same period [1][13]. - The oral care market in China is expected to undergo transformation, driven by demand upgrades and the rise of new product categories such as mouthwash and electric toothbrushes [1][23]. - The company is expanding its product matrix and optimizing its pricing strategy to capture market share, particularly in lower-tier markets and through online channels [1][17]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Chongqing Dengkang Oral Care Products Co., Ltd. was established in 2001 and has become a significant player in the oral care industry, focusing on sensitive toothpaste and maintaining a comprehensive product matrix [10][12]. Market Analysis - The Chinese oral care market was valued at 52.173 billion CNY in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 4.56%. The market is expected to continue expanding due to increased consumer awareness of oral health [23][24]. - The share of basic oral care products is declining, while specialized and electric products are gaining traction, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [24][26]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of 9.88% from 2019 to 2023. The first quarter of 2024 reported revenue of 361 million CNY and net profit of 37 million CNY [13][14]. - The revenue breakdown indicates that adult oral care products account for 89.36% of total sales, with significant growth in electric toothbrushes and oral medical products [13][21]. Channel Strategy - The company has a diversified channel strategy, with 72.32% of revenue coming from distribution channels, 3.94% from direct supply, and 22.98% from e-commerce, reflecting a shift towards online sales [17][18]. - The gross margin has improved, with a reported 48.43% in Q1 2024, driven by an increase in the sales of mid-to-high-end products [17][21].

[Table_Page] 公告点评|基础建设 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 中国交建(601800.SH)/中国交通建 设(01800.HK) | --- | --- | |-------------------------|--------------------| | 公司评级 [Table_Invest] | 买入-A/买入-H | | 当前价格 | 8.65 元/4.61 港元 | | 合理价值 | 10.27 元/5.48 港元 | | 前次评级 | 买入/买入 | | 报告日期 | 2024-08-02 | 24Q2 海外新签高增，筹划提高分红频率 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ Q2 新签稳增，境外新签保持高景气。根据公司经营合同公告，24H1， 新签合同额 9609 亿元，同比+8%，其中境内/境外新签分别 7648/1961 亿元，同比+3%/39%；24Q2，新签合同额 4536 亿元，同比+6%，其 中境内/境外分别 3487/1048 亿元，同比-6%/+82%，包括澳大利亚墨 尔本雅拉有轨电车第五期运维项目（120 亿元）等重大项目。 ⚫ 聚焦国企改革，筹 ...

[Table_Title] 【 广 发 商 社 & 海 外 】 名 创 优 品 (MNSO/09896.HK) 引领新零售，品牌出海进行时 [Table_Summary] 核心观点：（若无特别说明，本文货币单位均采用人民币单位） ⚫ 玩转 IP 联名，高频上新叠加吸睛设计能力，打造差异化新零售品牌。 当前消费环境下，生活家居等刚需性较强的标品的"低价"对刺激消 费作用有限，零售商需加码产品的情绪价值和颜值价值来夯实产品力。 基于品牌升级的战略，公司的产品结构从 100%性价比产品，升级为 "30%品牌升级+70%性价比"。公司目标是成为全球第一的 IP 设计零 售集团，并提出将在 2028 年实现 50%的 IP 产品销售和 50%的高性价 比产品销售结构。公司持续优化品类结构，IP 收入占比提升能持续拉 动集团整体毛利率。公司的 IP 运营时间长，自有品牌对国内、国际大 IP 授权的可得性、议价能力较强；同时 IP 运营经验丰富，有强大供应 链能力支撑，保障上新频率和新品质量。 ⚫ 公司前瞻布局海外市场，沉淀选品、选址经验，已取得初步成效，未 来五年仍为主力扩张驱动，集团目标未来 5 年海外业务翻四番。公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 10.41 per share based on a 15x PE valuation for FY25 [4][18]. Core Views - The company reported a 20% year-on-year decline in retail value for FY25Q1, with a 18.6% decline in mainland China and a 28.8% decline in Hong Kong and Macau. Same-store sales in mainland China fell by 26.4%, while same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau dropped by 30.8% [2][3]. - The decline in sales is attributed to high gold prices, which have suppressed consumer demand for discretionary spending. The average selling price of embedded products in mainland China increased by HKD 800 to HKD 8,600, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it decreased by HKD 300 to HKD 16,400 [2][3]. - The company is focused on optimizing its retail network by replacing underperforming stores with high-revenue, high-profit locations to mitigate short-term losses and maintain market share [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of HKD 69 billion, HKD 79 billion, and HKD 91 billion for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively. The projected revenue for FY25 is HKD 109.37 billion, with a growth rate of 0.6% [3][4]. - The EBITDA for FY25 is forecasted at HKD 12.36 billion, with a net profit margin of 6.4% [3][4]. Retail Performance - The retail value in mainland China saw a decline of 18.6%, while Hong Kong and Macau experienced a 28.8% drop. The same-store sales in mainland China decreased by 26.4%, and in Hong Kong and Macau, it fell by 30.8% [2][3]. - The company continues to enhance its retail network, with a total of 7,429 retail points as of June 30, 2024, having closed 91 stores in mainland China during the quarter [2][3]. Product Segmentation - The sales of gold products in mainland China decreased by 27.9%, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it fell by 33.0%. The average selling price of gold products in mainland China increased by HKD 800 to HKD 6,200, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it rose by HKD 500 to HKD 8,900 [2][3].