Group 1: Key Insights from the Report - The report highlights that the US employment data exceeded expectations, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 254,000, leading to a reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [4] - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market has outperformed globally, with a significant increase of 7.59% from October 1 to 4, 2024, driven by improved market sentiment and geopolitical factors [4][5] - The report indicates that the real estate policies in China have been further optimized, resulting in a notable improvement in the real estate market, with the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities showing a reduced year-on-year decline of 9% in early October, compared to a 34% decline in September [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.7 from August, while the services PMI decreased to 49.9, down by 0.3 from the previous month [6] - The report emphasizes that the overall market sentiment has improved due to clear signals of policy support since late September, which is expected to continue driving the A-share market upward post-holiday [8] - The report anticipates that the upcoming financial data releases in China, including CPI and PPI, will be crucial for assessing the economic outlook and potential policy adjustments [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The average daily pig iron output has increased to 2.28 million tons, with steel prices showing strong performance due to policy support [1][3] - The recovery of steel enterprise profits is accelerating the pace of production resumption, particularly in rebar production [1][3] - Recent macro policies related to real estate and consumption are expected to boost demand, although current pig iron output remains below levels seen in the same period in 2022 and 2023 [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Supply - The average daily pig iron output for the week (September 28 - October 4) reached 2.28 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 31,600 tons, or 1.41% [1][8] - The operating rate of blast furnaces rose to 79.57%, up 1.34 percentage points from the previous week [1][8] - Total production of the five major steel products was 8.54 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.7% [1][8] Inventory - Total steel inventory (social + factory) reached 13.39 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.7% [2][8] - Factory inventory increased by 6.3% to 4.04 million tons, while social inventory rose by 2.5% to 9.35 million tons [2][8] Consumption - Apparent consumption of steel products decreased by 11.71% week-on-week to 8.06 million tons [1][8] - Rebar apparent consumption fell by 26.6% to 1.88 million tons, while wire rod consumption decreased by 17.76% to 820,100 tons [1][8] Price and Profitability - Steel prices showed strong upward trends, with rebar prices increasing by 13.95% to 3,923.52 yuan/ton [3][8] - The profitability of steel enterprises improved significantly, with the profit margin for 247 steel companies rising by 19.05 percentage points to 37.66% [3][8] - Rebar profits turned positive, with a profit of 212.65 yuan/ton, a significant recovery from previous losses [3][8]

Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, 2024, signaled a shift in economic policy focus, emphasizing the need to "face difficulties" and implement new policies to boost market confidence[6] - A series of supporting measures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aim to enhance the capital market and facilitate the entry of long-term funds[9] - The "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Long-term Funds to Enter the Market" was jointly issued by the Central Financial Office and CSRC, indicating a strong commitment to market support[9] Group 2: Market and Financial Products - The total scale of public funds reached CNY 30.9 trillion by the end of August 2024, with equity funds accounting for approximately 21.34% of this total, highlighting room for growth in equity fund investments[10] - The establishment of a fast-track approval process for ETF index funds is expected to attract more incremental capital into the market, with the total ETF scale surpassing CNY 3 trillion, a 47.16% increase from the end of 2023[15] - The average management fee for mixed funds has decreased from 1.28% at the beginning of 2023 to 1.07% by September 2024, reflecting ongoing fee reforms aimed at reducing investor costs[22] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - The CSRC has introduced six key measures to streamline the entire M&A process, focusing on asset selection, payment methods, review efficiency, and intermediary services[9] - The new policies encourage listed companies to enhance industrial integration and improve regulatory inclusiveness, thereby increasing transaction efficiency in the M&A market[9] Group 4: Market Value Management - The new guidelines on market value management emphasize the coordinated use of tools such as share buybacks, dividends, and mergers to enhance the investment value of listed companies[9] - Companies are encouraged to adopt a comprehensive approach to market value management, with specific requirements for major index constituents and long-term underperforming stocks[9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the magnesium industry is "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - The magnesium industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, with expectations for a boost in October due to the traditional peak season [1][2] - Raw material costs are declining, and the price of magnesium ingots is stabilizing, indicating a potential for market recovery [1] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring production and operational conditions in magnesium and magnesium alloy segments, particularly those with low-carbon smelting technology and high-end magnesium alloy R&D advantages [1] Summary by Sections Raw Material Supply and Demand - In August, the operating rate of raw coal in China was 55.97%, up 19.28% month-on-month, with production costs at 1,323.64 CNY/ton, down 2.41% [1][5] - The average price of magnesium ingots in August was 19,393.18 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.47% from the previous month [5] - The production of primary magnesium in China increased to 76,355 tons in August, up 4.55% month-on-month [5] Downstream Demand - The production of passenger cars in August reached 2,221,461 units, an increase of 9.43% month-on-month, while the production of new energy vehicles rose by 10.92% to 1,091,869 units [5] - The production of mobile phones and computers also saw increases of 5.14% and 11.33%, respectively, indicating a recovery in the electronics sector [5] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the demand for magnesium will continue to recover as the traditional peak season approaches in October, with downstream demand expected to further boost the market [1][2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the vanadium industry is "Recommended" [3] Core Viewpoints - In August, the supply of vanadium pentoxide saw a slight increase, while prices for vanadium products declined due to a decrease in steel production and high iron ore supply [1][3] - The overall supply-demand situation in the vanadium industry is characterized by weakness on both sides, with structural opportunities in the energy storage sector due to strong demand for high-purity vanadium pentoxide [3] Summary by Sections 1. Monthly Data Changes in the Vanadium Industry - In August, the production of vanadium pentoxide from 23 sample enterprises was 11,460 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.25% [1][6] - The production of vanadium iron decreased by 2.44% to 3,365 tons, while vanadium nitrogen alloy and ammonium metavanadate saw larger declines of 16.72% and 18.88%, respectively [1][6] - The average daily crude steel production decreased by 12.58% to 2.54 million tons, indicating a significant drop in demand [1][6] 2. Monthly Data Trends Summary - The price of vanadium pentoxide in Sichuan decreased by 3.86% to 77,250 yuan per ton, while vanadium iron and vanadium nitrogen alloy prices also saw declines of 3.87% and 3.51%, respectively [6][7] - The supply of vanadium products is tightening, but the decline in crude steel production is more pronounced, leading to a wider supply-demand imbalance [1][3] 3. Industry News and Company Dynamics - Vanadium Yuxin Material Co., listed on the New Third Board, reported a 23.37% decrease in revenue for the first half of 2024, primarily due to a 24.13% drop in average selling prices of vanadium nitrogen alloy [11] - The Heilongjiang Provincial Industrial and Information Technology Department released a development plan for the vanadium industry, aiming for a production capacity of over 35,000 tons of vanadium pentoxide by 2026 [11] - Significant breakthroughs in mineral exploration in Xinjiang have increased the iron ore resource amount to 358 million tons, along with associated titanium dioxide and phosphorus pentoxide resources [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a short-term adjustment in the yield of wealth management products due to recent policy changes, suggesting a cautious outlook for the immediate future [1][6]. Core Insights - The central bank's recent policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are expected to ease liquidity pressures and improve market confidence, leading to a significant rise in A-shares [1][6]. - Despite the positive market response, there are concerns about potential profit-taking and the sustainability of these gains, particularly in the bond market, which may face short-term adjustments [1][6]. - The report highlights that cash management products have maintained a stable annualized yield of 1.73%, while the yield gap between cash management products and money market funds has narrowed to 15 basis points [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Impact on Wealth Management Yields - The central bank's announcement of monetary easing measures is expected to provide a favorable long-term environment for the bond market, despite short-term volatility in wealth management product net values [1][6]. 2. Cash Management Product Yields - As of September 22, 2024, cash management products reported a 7-day annualized yield of 1.73%, unchanged from the previous week, while money market funds saw a slight increase to 1.58% [7][8]. 3. Performance of Wealth Management Products - Non-cash fixed income products have shown a near 1-month annualized yield of 2.47%, an increase of 8 basis points from the previous week, while 6-12 month fixed income products have decreased to 3.63% [8][9]. - The 1-3 year fixed income products reported a 1-year annualized yield of 3.37%, reflecting a slight increase of 1 basis point [9]. 4. Maturity and Compliance of Wealth Management Products - From September 16 to September 22, 2024, the total maturity scale of wealth management products reached 254.7 billion, with an average compliance rate of 55%, a decrease of 1% from the previous week [11][12].

Policy Impact - The central bank's "combination punch" includes a 50 basis point reserve requirement cut, releasing approximately CNY 1 trillion in liquidity, with potential further cuts of 25-50 basis points by year-end[3] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate is lowered by 20 basis points to 1.5%, aiming to guide loan and deposit rates downward[3] - Existing mortgage rates are expected to decrease by about 50 basis points, reducing annual household interest expenses by approximately CNY 150 billion[3] Market Reaction - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.15%, marking the largest single-day gain since August 2020[3] - Trading volume surged to nearly CNY 1 trillion, indicating strong market participation and optimism[3] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the A-share market may have entered a phase of rebound, with potential for broad-based gains across sectors such as consumer goods, infrastructure, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications)[6] - Continued fiscal policy support is crucial for transitioning from a rebound to a sustained market uptrend, particularly focusing on household income and consumption[5] Debt Market Perspective - The bond market may experience a short-term adjustment due to profit-taking, with a potential consolidation period of 1-2 months anticipated[6] - Despite this, the long-term trend for bonds remains positive, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts from both domestic and U.S. Federal Reserve policies[6] Risk Factors - Key risks include potential underperformance of policy measures, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and external factors such as U.S. economic conditions and geopolitical tensions[2][7]

+ 2024 年 09 月 24 日 证券研究报告 | 产业月报 8 月国内钢铁供需双弱，出口同比增幅重回两位数 钢铁 8 月月报 分析师：张锦 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 8 月钢铁供给同比降幅扩大，长材库存去化明显，出口同比提速。8 月粗钢产 量 7792 万吨，同比-10.4%，前值为-9%。库存端，因钢材减量主要来自建材端， 螺纹、线材的去库趋势较为明显，板材库存变化幅度不大。截至 8 月底，螺纹 钢、线材、中厚板、热轧板卷、冷轧板卷的库存与 7 月底库存相比，变化幅度 分别为-21.6%、-21.4%、-2.2%、2.7%、-2.1%。8 月国内钢材出口 950 万吨， 同比 14.7%，前值为 7.1%。 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 邮箱：wuhan@cnhbstock.com 钢材终端消费仍处淡季之中，钢价持续震荡下行。8 月淡季影响持续深入，整 体需求偏弱。五大材周度平均表观消费量合计 831.6 万吨，同比-10%，前值为 -4%。其中长材周度平均表观消费合计 291.03 万吨，同比-22.2%，环比-11.4%; ...

2024 年 09 月 24 日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 铁水产量连续第四周回升，铁矿供应远端降、近端增 铁矿行业周度报告 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 供应：本周（9.14-9.20）进口铁矿石远端供应下滑，近端供应增长 9.31%。 本周澳洲、巴西本周发货量（14 个港口）合计 2477.4 万吨，环比下滑 197 万 吨，下滑幅度为-7.37%，高于去年同期 12.7%。澳洲、巴西发货量（14 个港口 合计）分别为 1762 万吨、715.4 万吨，环比分别为-6.21%、-10.1%。四大矿 山发货至中国的量合计 1958.8 万吨，环比-13.4%,四家矿山发货量均呈下滑态 势。力拓、必和必拓、淡水河谷、FMG 本周至中国的发货量分别为 592.8 万吨、 432 万吨、591.1 万吨、342.9 万吨，环比分别为-4.08%、-25.84%、-10.71%、 -14.17%。到港方面，中国 26 港到港量 2229.2 万吨，环比 9.31%；中国北方 港口到港量 1264.8 万吨，环比 11.85%。国内矿方面，9 月 7 日-9 月 20 ...

2024 年 09 月 23 日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 动力电池行业周报：锂矿供给出清正在进行中，现已出 现锂矿减产甚至停产消息 2024.09.14-2024.09.20 电力设备及新能源 分析师：胡鸿宇 分析师登记编码：S0890521090003 电话：021-20321074 邮箱：huhongyu@cnhbstock.com 行业数据：1）本周工业级碳酸锂市场均价 7.15 万元/吨，较上周价格持平； 电池级碳酸锂市场均价 7.45 万元/吨，较上周价格持平。2）三元材料 523 单 晶动力市场价格在 10.95 万元/吨，较上周价格持平；三元材料 622 多晶消费 市场价格在 10.9 万元/吨，较上周价格持平；高镍 811 多晶动力材料市场价格 在 14.9 万元/吨，较上周价格持平。3）负极材料市场集中度较高，本周价格持 平，市场参考价格为 3.3 万元/吨，市场供应充足。4）电解液价格持平，磷酸 铁锂电解液市场均价为 1.83 万元/吨，较上周同期价格持平；三元/常规动力电 解液市场均价为 2.5 万元/吨，较上周同期价格持平。电解液企业多为定制生 产，基本按单进行生产，与下游市场关联 ...