2025 年 05 月 11 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 关税窗口期应如何博弈？ 策略周报 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《政治局会议临近，应如何布局？— 策略周报》2025-04-20 2、《关税对 A 股哪些行业影响较大？— 策略周报》2025-04-13 3、《关税迷雾叠加美股震荡，资产应如 何配置？—策略周报》2025-03-30 4、《科技主线重燃，二次上行可期 —策 略周报》2025-03-09 5、《从关税博弈到 AI+突围—策略周 报》2025-02-23 投资要点 分析师：郝一凡 【债市方面】新低后宜适度止盈。央行本周降息 10BP，降息幅度相对有 限，后续预计为应对关税影响，未来仍有降息空间。整体来看，在增量政策出 台前，利率仍有下行创新低的可能，新低或是止盈机会（十年期国债收益率止 盈区间 1.50-1.55%）。债 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of recent tariff negotiations on the A-share market, suggesting that the market sentiment has improved due to expectations of tariff easing and liquidity release from the central bank [3][10][12] - The central bank's recent actions, including a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate reduction, are expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, which is anticipated to support market stability [9][10] - The report indicates a shift in focus towards sectors such as low-volatility dividend stocks, banking, and public utilities, while also suggesting potential opportunities in technology and new consumption sectors like tourism and entertainment during market corrections [3][12] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to see further declines in yields, with a target range for ten-year government bond yields set between 1.50% and 1.55%, indicating a favorable outlook for short-term interest rate bonds [3][12] - The report notes that the A-share market's average daily trading volume has increased to 1,353.426 billion yuan, reflecting heightened market activity following the easing of tariff concerns and monetary policy adjustments [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, such as the U.S. CPI and China's M2 growth, which could influence market dynamics in the near term [21]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant market adjustment in April 2025, with equity markets experiencing a downturn due to external shocks, while the bond market saw a rapid increase in value following tariff impacts [5][12][13] - The report emphasizes a shift towards industry trend investments and thematic investments in the equity sector, particularly focusing on technology assets, domestic demand, and stable high-dividend sectors [5][20] - The report notes that the bond market is expected to maintain a loose monetary environment following interest rate cuts, with a potential for further growth policies to be introduced to support economic recovery [7][29] Group 2 - The report outlines a strategic focus on three key areas for equity investments: technology assets, domestic demand, and dividend-focused investments, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [20][21] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of various fund indices, indicating that the agricultural and pharmaceutical sectors showed resilience, while sectors like new energy and technology faced challenges [16][19] - The report discusses the construction of fund portfolios, recommending a mix of low, medium, and high volatility fixed-income funds to balance risk and return, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and managing credit risk [39][40][41]

New Stock Offerings - ST Xinchao (600777) is in the offer period from April 23, 2025, to May 22, 2025[1] - Puli Tui (300630) has 8 trading days remaining until the last trading day[1] - ST Zhongcheng (300208) is also in the offer period with announcements made on April 29, 2025[1] Trading Alerts - ST Yushun (002289) has reported severe abnormal fluctuations as of April 29, 2025[1] - ST Keli Da (603828) has an announcement dated May 9, 2025, regarding trading alerts[1] - ST Yuan Cheng (603388) has similar trading alerts as of May 9, 2025[1] Market Trends - The report indicates a significant number of stocks under abnormal trading conditions, suggesting increased market volatility[2] - Multiple stocks are approaching their last trading days, indicating potential liquidity issues for investors[1] - The overall trend shows a heightened level of scrutiny on stocks with abnormal fluctuations, which may impact investor confidence[2]

2025 年 05 月 09 日 证券研究报告 | 财富生态周报 ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报 2025/5/9 分析师：卫以诺 分析师登记编码：S0890518120001 电话：021-20321014 邮箱：weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话： 021-20515355 （2）人工智能 ETF（159819.SZ）：AI 技术迭代推动算力需求呈指数级增长， 根据 IDC 与浪潮信息联合发布的《2025 年中国人工智能计算力发展评估报告》 预测，2023 年至 2028 年，我国 AI 算力规模将以 CAGR 46.2%的速度扩张。 2025 年 3 月《政府工作报告》与 4 月中共中央政治局会议均提及"人工智能+" 行动，鼓励人工智能技术在科研、金融、医疗等场景加速落地，但仅仅相差一 个月，相关表述即从"持续推进"转变为"加快实施"，可见我国对于大力发 展人工智能与"科技兴国"的决心。在政策红利持续加码的情况下，人工智能 ETF 有望充分受益 ...

Group 1: Key Points on Investor-Centric Transformation - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" on May 7, 2025, emphasizing an investor-centric approach[3]. - The plan outlines four key focuses: strengthening the alignment of interests with investors, expanding equity funds, enhancing investor service capabilities, and increasing industry stability[9]. - The introduction of a floating management fee mechanism aims to align fund managers' compensation with investor returns, with a target for leading firms to issue at least 60% of new equity funds under this model[10]. Group 2: Focus on Equity Fund Development - The plan continues the emphasis on the growth of equity funds, which has been a consistent theme since the 2022 guidelines[13]. - Public funds will have expanded access to financial derivatives, allowing for better risk management and absolute return strategies[13]. - The registration process for equity funds will be expedited, with a commitment to complete registrations for ETFs within 5 working days and for actively managed equity funds within 10 working days[14]. Group 3: Enhancing Investor Services - Fund companies are required to improve their research and investment capabilities, moving towards a team-based investment approach to enhance performance stability[15]. - The establishment of a centralized data platform for institutional investors aims to streamline investment processes and improve service quality[16]. - The plan encourages the development of low-volatility and asset allocation products to cater to conservative investors, alongside the introduction of new fund types like "fixed income plus" products[16]. Group 4: Strengthening Industry Stability - The plan introduces measures for liquidity management and long-term investment strategies to enhance the stability of public funds[17]. - Regulatory frameworks will be established to ensure compliance and protect the reputation of fund companies, addressing issues like dual roles of fund managers and conflicts of interest[18]. - The overall goal is to shift the industry focus from scale-driven growth to prioritizing investor interests, fostering a sustainable investment environment[18].

| https://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=600370&announcementId=122321 | 600370 | 三房巷 | 1239&orgId=gssh0600370&announcementTime=2025 | -04-23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | https://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=603697&announcementId=122321 | 603697 | 有友食品 | 2766&orgId=gfbj0831377&announcementTime=2025 | -04-23 | | | https://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=605358&announcementId=122321 | 605358 | 立昂微 | 3378&orgId=9900038308&announcementTime= ...

证券研究报告——宏观策略月报 静观其变，谋而后动 ——2025年5月资产配置报告 ► 请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 HWABAO SECURITIES 2025年5月8日 分析师： 蔡梦苑（执业证书编号：S0890521120001） 分析师： 郝一凡（执业证书编号：S0890524080002） 分析师： 刘 芳（执业证书编号：S0890524100002） 宏观主线梳理 宏观主线梳理 关税缓和信号显现，但行业关税仍存变数： 内容目录 海外宏观 Ø 对等关税税率后续有望下调，行业关税仍存变数 关税对经济影响逐渐显现，既定政策加快落地 Ø 美国一季度GDP萎缩，后续走势取决于关税谈判及减税政策进展 u 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算萎缩至-0.3%，主要受到抢进口和政府投资减少的拖累。后续美国经济走势 取决于关税谈判的进展（商品消费），以及减税政策的支持（私人投资）。 u 基于财政收益最大化及后续行业关税实施空间的考量，对等关税存在下调预期。预计最终调整方向或与特朗普竞选大致匹配—— 即全球基准税率降至10%，中国维持约60%高位。 u 对华关税政策方面，特朗普表示"对中国达成 ...

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Market Style Factors - **Construction Idea**: The market style factors track the balance and volatility between different market styles, such as large-cap vs. small-cap and value vs. growth[11][13] - **Construction Process**: - **Style Balance**: Measure the relative performance of large-cap vs. small-cap stocks and value vs. growth stocks to determine the market's style preference[11] - **Style Volatility**: Calculate the fluctuations in the relative performance of these styles over time to assess the stability of the market's style preference[11] - **Evaluation**: The market style factors showed a balanced preference between large-cap and small-cap stocks, as well as between value and growth stocks. Additionally, the volatility of these styles continued to decline, indicating a more stable market environment[11][13] 2. Factor Name: Market Structure Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze the dispersion of returns, sector rotation, and trading concentration to understand the structural dynamics of the market[11][13] - **Construction Process**: - **Return Dispersion**: Measure the excess return dispersion across industry indices to evaluate the variability in sector performance[11] - **Sector Rotation**: Assess the speed of sector rotation by tracking changes in sector leadership over time[11] - **Trading Concentration**: Calculate the proportion of trading volume concentrated in the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries to gauge market concentration[11] - **Evaluation**: The market structure factors indicated a decline in return dispersion, slower sector rotation, and reduced trading concentration, suggesting a more evenly distributed market environment[11][13] 3. Factor Name: Market Activity Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors measure the overall activity and liquidity of the market through volatility and turnover rates[12][13] - **Construction Process**: - **Volatility**: Calculate the index-level volatility to assess market stability[12] - **Turnover Rate**: Measure the turnover rate of the market to evaluate trading activity[12] - **Evaluation**: The market activity factors showed a decline in both volatility and turnover rates, reflecting reduced market activity, likely influenced by the holiday period[12][13] 4. Factor Name: Commodity Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze the performance, momentum, and liquidity of various commodity sectors[27][30] - **Construction Process**: - **Trend Strength**: Measure the strength of price trends in different commodity sectors, such as energy, metals, and agriculture[27] - **Basis Momentum**: Calculate the basis momentum, particularly for the metals sector, to assess the relative strength of futures prices compared to spot prices[27][30] - **Volatility**: Track the volatility levels across commodity sectors to evaluate risk[27][30] - **Liquidity**: Measure the liquidity of commodity sectors to assess trading ease[27][30] - **Evaluation**: The commodity market factors showed mixed performance, with strong trends in energy and metals, weaker trends in agriculture, and high volatility across sectors. Liquidity remained stable overall[27][30] 5. Factor Name: Options Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze the implied volatility and skewness of options to infer market sentiment and expectations[35] - **Construction Process**: - **Implied Volatility**: Measure the implied volatility levels of options on major indices, such as the SSE 50 and CSI 1000, to gauge market uncertainty[35] - **Skewness**: Analyze the skewness of call and put options to understand market expectations for upward or downward movements[35] - **Evaluation**: The options market factors indicated a divergence in sentiment, with increased optimism for small-cap stocks (CSI 1000) and reduced optimism for large-cap stocks (SSE 50). This suggests a potential shift in market preference post-holiday[35] 6. Factor Name: Convertible Bond Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors evaluate the valuation and trading activity of the convertible bond market[38] - **Construction Process**: - **Valuation**: Measure the average conversion premium of convertible bonds to assess their relative attractiveness[38] - **Trading Activity**: Track the trading volume and turnover in the convertible bond market to evaluate market interest[38] - **Evaluation**: The convertible bond market factors showed a slight increase in valuation, with trading activity continuing to recover, indicating improving market sentiment[38] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Market Style Factors - **Style Balance**: Balanced between large-cap and small-cap, as well as value and growth[11][13] - **Style Volatility**: Continued decline in volatility, indicating stability[11][13] 2. Market Structure Factors - **Return Dispersion**: Declined, indicating less variability in sector performance[11][13] - **Sector Rotation**: Slowed down, suggesting reduced changes in sector leadership[11][13] - **Trading Concentration**: Decreased, reflecting a more evenly distributed market[11][13] 3. Market Activity Factors - **Volatility**: Declined, indicating reduced market risk[12][13] - **Turnover Rate**: Decreased, reflecting lower trading activity[12][13] 4. Commodity Market Factors - **Trend Strength**: Strong in energy and metals, weak in agriculture[27][30] - **Basis Momentum**: Highest in metals, declined in other sectors[27][30] - **Volatility**: High across all sectors[27][30] - **Liquidity**: Stable overall[27][30] 5. Options Market Factors - **Implied Volatility**: Increased for both SSE 50 and CSI 1000, indicating higher uncertainty[35] - **Skewness**: Positive for CSI 1000 (small-cap optimism), negative for SSE 50 (large-cap caution)[35] 6. Convertible Bond Market Factors - **Valuation**: Slight increase in average conversion premium[38] - **Trading Activity**: Continued recovery in trading volume[38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report presents several ETF strategy indices constructed using ETFs, and tracks the performance and holdings of these indices on a weekly basis. These indices aim to obtain excess returns relative to the market through different strategies [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. ETF Strategy Index Tracking - **Overall Performance**: The table shows the performance of various ETF strategy indices last week, including index returns, benchmark returns, and excess returns. For example, the Huabao Research Size Rotation ETF Strategy Index had a last - week index return of 0.61%, a benchmark (CSI 800) return of 0.29%, and an excess return of 0.32% [12]. 1.1. Huabao Research Size Rotation ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: Utilizes multi - dimensional technical indicator factors and a machine - learning model to predict the return difference between the Shenwan Large - Cap Index and the Shenwan Small - Cap Index. It outputs weekly signals to determine holdings and obtain excess returns [13]. - **Performance**: As of April 30, 2025, the excess return since 2024 was 16.87%, the recent one - month excess return was 1.04%, and the recent one - week excess return was 0.32%. The index's recent one - week return was 0.61%, recent one - month return was - 2.35%, and since 2024 was 25.11%, compared to the CSI 800's 0.29%, - 3.38%, and 8.24% respectively [13][14]. - **Holdings**: As of April 30, 2025, it held 50% of CSI 500ETF (159922.SZ) and 50% of CSI 1000ETF (512100.SH) [16]. 1.2. Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: Uses price - volume indicators to time self - built Barra factors, and maps timing signals to ETFs based on their exposure to 9 major Barra factors to achieve market - outperforming returns. It selects mainstream broad - based index ETFs and some style and strategy ETFs [15]. - **Performance**: As of April 30, 2025, the excess return since 2024 was 16.49%, the recent one - month excess return was 1.48%, and the recent one - week excess return was - 1.51%. The index's recent one - week return was - 1.22%, recent one - month return was - 1.91%, and since 2024 was 24.73%, compared to the CSI 800's 0.29%, - 3.38%, and 8.24% respectively [16][17]. - **Holdings**: As of April 30, 2025, it held 100% of Dividend Low - Volatility ETF (512890.SH) [23]. 1.3. Huabao Research Quantitative Fire - Wheel ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: Adopts a multi - factor approach, including long - and medium - term fundamental analysis, short - term market trend tracking, and analysis of market participants' behaviors. It uses valuation and crowding signals to indicate industry risks and multi - dimensionally digs out potential sectors to obtain excess returns [20]. - **Performance**: As of April 30, 2025, the excess return since 2024 was 0.53%, the recent one - month excess return was 0.93%, and the recent one - week excess return was - 0.03%. The index's recent one - week return was 0.26%, recent one - month return was - 2.45%, and since 2024 was 8.78%, compared to the CSI 800's 0.29%, - 3.38%, and 8.24% respectively [20][23]. - **Holdings**: As of April 30, 2025, it held 20.93% of Bank ETF (512800.SH), 20.88% of Agriculture ETF (159825.SZ), 19.59% of Military Industry ETF (512660.SH), etc. [24]. 1.4. Huabao Research Quantitative Balancing Act ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: Employs a multi - factor system covering economic fundamentals, liquidity, technical aspects, and investor behavior. It constructs a quantitative timing system to judge the equity market trend, builds a prediction model for market large - and small - cap styles to adjust equity market position distribution, and comprehensively obtains excess returns through timing and rotation [24]. - **Performance**: As of April 30, 2025, the excess return since 2024 was 2.46%, the recent one - month excess return was 2.04%, and the recent one - week excess return was 0.32%. The index's recent one - week return was 0.27%, recent one - month return was - 0.97%, and since 2024 was 12.35%, compared to the SSE 300's - 0.05%, - 3.01%, and 9.89% respectively [24][26]. - **Holdings**: As of April 30, 2025, it held 5.09% of CSI 1000ETF (512100.SH), 4.98% of 500ETF Enhanced (159610.SZ), 29.13% of 300 Enhanced ETF (561300.SH), etc. [28]. 1.5. Huabao Research Hot - Spot Tracking ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: Based on strategies such as market sentiment analysis, industry event tracking, investor sentiment and professional opinions, policy and regulatory changes, and historical deduction, it tracks and mines hot - spot index target products in a timely manner to construct an ETF portfolio that can capture market hot - spots, providing short - term market trend references for investors [28]. - **Performance**: As of April 30, 2025, the recent one - month excess return was 2.06%, and the recent one - week excess return was 0.11%. The index's recent one - week return was 1.19%, compared to the CSI All - Share's 1.08% [28][31]. - **Holdings**: As of April 30, 2025, it held 4.15% of Real Estate ETF (515060.SH), 27.03% of Hong Kong Stock Consumption ETF (513230.SH), etc. [32]. 1.6. Huabao Research Bond ETF Duration Strategy Index - **Strategy**: Uses bond market liquidity and price - volume indicators to screen effective timing factors and predicts bond yields through machine - learning methods. When the expected yield is below a certain threshold, it reduces the long - duration position in the bond investment portfolio to improve long - term returns and drawdown control ability [32]. - **Performance**: As of April 30, 2025, the recent one - month excess return was 0.20%, and the recent one - week excess return was 0.02%. The index's recent one - week return was 0.19%, recent one - month return was 1.20%, since 2024 was 9.32%, and since inception was 14.47%, compared to the ChinaBond Aggregate Index's 0.17%, 1.00%, 4.97%, and 6.91% respectively [32][33]. - **Holdings**: As of April 30, 2025, it held 50.01% of 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF (511260.SH), 25.00% of Policy Financial Bond ETF (511520.SH), etc. [36].