Market Overview - In September, the equity market experienced a rapid rebound after a period of decline, with the A-share market seeing significant increases in both confidence and trading volume due to unexpected policy measures from the government [14][17] - The major equity fund indices all recorded gains exceeding 10%, with the Wind Active Stock Fund and Wind Stock Fund Total Index achieving positive returns of 20.28% and 23.40% respectively in September 2024 [14][15] Equity Market Analysis - The equity market's risk appetite has notably increased due to policy stimuli, shifting the market style towards small-cap growth stocks, with active trading and a diverse range of market hotspots [17][18] - The proportion of rising constituent stocks has reached historical highs, indicating a strong index performance that may suppress excess returns from quantitative strategies [18][21] - For conservative investors, the volatility of hedging strategies is expected to decrease, leading to a stabilization of returns for neutral strategies, while aggressive investors may find index-enhanced products and smart beta strategies suitable for allocation [18][19] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market remains active, with varying efficiency across sectors, and a lack of established upward trends, suggesting that medium to long-term trend strategies may need to wait [17][20] - Short-term CTA strategies are expected to profit from market volatility, and the current liquidity in the commodity market supports arbitrage strategies [17][20] - In September, gold prices showed a general upward trend, supported by geopolitical tensions and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets, while the South China Commodity Index rose by 4.6% [14][16] Public Fund Performance Review - In September, the CSI 300 index enhanced products recorded a monthly increase of 20.97%, with strict constraint type products showing a monthly excess return of -1.75% [39] - The CSI 500 index enhanced products had a monthly increase of 23.80%, with strict constraint type products showing a monthly excess return of -2.38% [42] - The CSI 1000 index enhanced products also saw a monthly increase of 23.32%, with strict constraint type products showing a monthly excess return of -1.30% [45]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The banking wealth management market is experiencing a mixed performance in equity and bond markets, with a notable recovery in equity-based wealth management products [1] - The People's Bank of China has implemented significant monetary policy changes, including a comprehensive reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, which positively impacted market sentiment and stock performance [6] - The issuance of non-principal guaranteed wealth management products decreased by 7.9% year-on-year but increased by 4.3% month-on-month in September 2024 [9][11] Summary by Sections Regulatory Policies and Asset Management Market News - The central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds [6] - The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is expected to be around 0.5 percentage points, benefiting approximately 50 million households [6] Wealth Management Market Monthly Overview - In September 2024, a total of 2,378 non-principal guaranteed wealth management products were issued, with a breakdown of 2,289 fixed income products, 43 mixed products, and 10 equity products [9][11] - The average performance benchmark for various product types in September 2024 was as follows: fixed income at 2.88%, mixed at 2.75%, and equity at 4.03% [12] Product Tracking and Performance - The number of wealth management products that broke net value reached 3,421, accounting for 5.37% of the total market, indicating a significant increase from the previous month [2] - The average annualized return for equity-based wealth management products has turned positive, reaching 8.30% as of October 13, 2024 [2] Wealth Management Subsidiary Products - In September 2024, wealth management subsidiaries issued 1,475 products, predominantly fixed income (1,438), with only 3 equity products [13] - The performance benchmarks for fixed income products varied by duration, with 3-month products averaging 2.39% and those over 3 years averaging 3.36% [14]

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The iron ore industry is experiencing a significant increase in port arrivals, with a growth rate exceeding 50% [1] - Daily average pig iron production has rebounded to over 230 million tons per day, indicating a recovery in steel production [1][3] - The supply of iron ore is increasing, but the demand growth is not keeping pace, leading to high port inventories [4] Supply Summary - Import iron ore supply from Australia and Brazil has shown a combined increase of 3.07%, with total shipments reaching 22.606 million tons [1][6] - The total iron ore arrival at Chinese ports reached 28.704 million tons, a 52.23% increase compared to the previous week [1][6] - Port inventories remain high, with a total of 151.05 million tons across 45 ports, a year-on-year increase of 36.8% [5][6] Demand Summary - Daily average iron ore consumption by steel mills is 2.8815 million tons, reflecting a 1.86% increase [7] - Daily average pig iron production has increased to 2.3308 million tons, marking a 2.22% rise and the sixth consecutive week of growth [3][7] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces is at 87.51%, up by 1.9 percentage points [7] Price and Profitability Summary - The average iron ore price index (62% Fe: CFR: Qingdao Port) is $105.78 per ton, down by $2.32 or 2.15% from the previous week [7] - The profitability rate of steel companies has risen sharply to 71.43%, indicating improved operational efficiency [7]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Recommended (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The automotive market is experiencing continuous policy support, which is significantly contributing to the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle sector. In the first eight months of 2024, China's power battery cumulative installation reached 292.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 33.2% [2][50] - The market share of new energy vehicles in China reached 37.5% in the first eight months of 2024, with production and sales of 700.3 million and 703.3 million units, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.9% and 30.9% [2][48] - Chinese companies dominate the global power battery market, with six companies, including CATL and BYD, accounting for 65.1% of the total installed capacity [2][50] Summary by Sections 1. Upstream Materials - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices averaged 74,000 yuan/ton, up 2.1% from the previous week, while battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 77,000 yuan/ton, also up 2.0% [7][8] - The price of lithium hydroxide continues to decline, with battery-grade prices averaging 68,500 yuan/ton [13][16] - The market for negative electrode materials remains stable, with prices holding steady at 33,000 yuan/ton [26][29] 2. Midstream Materials - The price of ternary materials (523 single crystal) is 110,300 yuan/ton, while the price for high-nickel 811 multi-crystal materials is 145,500 yuan/ton, which has decreased slightly [20][21] - The production of ternary materials is stable, with a slight increase in supply due to higher production schedules from some battery manufacturers [21][22] 3. Downstream Cells - The average price of square power cells (ternary) is 0.46 yuan/Wh, while for lithium iron phosphate cells, it is 0.37 yuan/Wh, both remaining stable [46] - In August 2024, the total production of power and other batteries reached 101.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 36.8% [47] - Cumulative sales of power batteries reached 448.8 GWh in the first eight months of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.5% [47]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a significant recovery in demand, with steel companies' profit margins rebounding to over 70% [1][3] - The recovery in demand, coupled with favorable policies, is expected to boost the steel market, leading to continued growth in steel supply in the short term [1][3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Changes in the Steel Industry - Daily molten iron production increased by 2.22% week-on-week to 2.33 million tons, marking the sixth consecutive week of growth [1][8] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces rose to 80.79%, up by 1.22 percentage points [1][8] - Total production of the five major steel products reached 8.64 million tons, with a slight increase of 1.2% [1][8] 2. Weekly Data Trends in the Steel Industry - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products totaled 8.93 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 10.7% [1][9] - Rebar consumption surged by over 30%, indicating strong demand recovery [1][9] 3. Industry News and Company Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to expedite the issuance of approximately 290 billion yuan in local government special bonds by the end of October [20] - Steel companies are actively managing inventory levels, with total steel inventory decreasing by 2.2% week-on-week to 13.1 million tons [2][9] - The average profit margin for steel companies has risen to 71.43%, reflecting improved profitability across the sector [3][9]

2024 年 10 月 13 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 财政部传递"渐进式"加码信号， 夯实中长期慢牛基础 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 投资要点 10 月 12 日国新办新闻发布会，财政部部长蓝佛安介绍"加大财政政策逆周期调 节力度、推动经济高质量发展"有关情况。释放了五大信号：1）拟一次性增加较 大规模债务限额；2）发行特别国债支持国有大型商业银行补充核心一级资本；3） 叠加运用地方政府专项债券、专项资金、税收政策等工具，支持推动房地产市场止 跌回稳；4）加大对重点群体的支持保障力度；5）中央财政还有较大的举债空间和 赤字提升空间。 总体来看，财政部虽未公布具体财政刺激细节及具体规模，但财政发力的方向和 态度较为明确，释放了"渐进式"加码的积极信号，我们总结出以下几点特征： 1、财政发力方向明确，数万亿增量政策可期，但仍要"渐进式"加码；2、先解决 化债及地产等"包袱"，才能"轻装上阵"；3、兼顾市场情绪——提振中长期信 心，避免短期过热。 对市场影响方面，我们认为短期股债以 ...

2024 年 10 月 10 日 证券研究报告 | 产业月报 供给、消费端氢价下降趋势不减，各地涉氢政策持续推出 氢能月度报告 分析师：张锦 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 8 月广东省高纯氢价格持续回落，可再生能源制取规模与上月持平：8 月上 海/北京/广东/河南/河北高纯氢（≥4N）市场主流价格为 2.7/2.3/2/2.1/2.2 元 /Nm3，其中广东市场环比上月下跌 1.48%。目前广东地区用氢成本优势突出， 受益用氢成本下降的下游环节如炼化、合成甲醇、燃料电池等环节有望在广东 率先受益。根据中国氢能联盟，8 月中国氢价指数生产侧指数同比下跌至 28.8 元/千克。可再生能源制氢方面，8 月全国共有 78 个可再生制氢能源项目，合 计可再生能源制氢规模达 969.7MW。从地区来看已覆盖 25 个省（直辖市，自 治区），涉及 70 家企业。技术路线以碱性电解水制氢（AE）为主，项目规模达 到 841.4 兆瓦，占比 86.8%；电力来源主要为光伏，项目规模达到 712.8 兆瓦， 占比 73.5%；应用方向以交通为主，项目规模达到 331.8 兆瓦，占比 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - The hydrogen energy market is expected to see a dual increase in supply and demand across all segments due to the continuous introduction of hydrogen-related policies and active investment financing events [3][17] - The decline in hydrogen prices on both supply and consumption sides is ongoing, with significant cost advantages in regions like Guangdong benefiting downstream sectors such as refining and fuel cells [1][3] - The establishment of hydrogen refueling stations and the production of fuel cell vehicles have seen fluctuations, with a notable decrease in production and sales in August [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Hydrogen Monthly Data Changes - In August, the mainstream prices for high-purity hydrogen (≥4N) in major markets were as follows: Shanghai 2.7 CNY/Nm3, Beijing 2.3 CNY/Nm3, Guangdong 2.0 CNY/Nm3, Henan 2.1 CNY/Nm3, and Hebei 2.2 CNY/Nm3, with Guangdong experiencing a month-on-month decline of 1.48% [1][7] - The hydrogen price index for production in China fell to 28.8 CNY/kg year-on-year [1] - There are currently 78 renewable hydrogen production projects in China, with a total capacity of 969.7 MW, primarily using alkaline electrolysis [1][7] Hydrogen Policy Summary - Chengdu plans to promote 500 hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles in 2024 [9] - Dalian has released a hydrogen industry development plan for 2024-2035, focusing on public transport applications [10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has included several hydrogen-related technologies in its 2024 major equipment promotion directory [11] Hydrogen Investment and Financing Events - Guofu Hydrogen Energy plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to expand its influence in the hydrogen energy sector [17] - Mufan Power has completed a multi-hundred million Pre-B round financing to enhance its hydrogen gas turbine manufacturing capabilities [18]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Recommended (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The overall industry outlook remains positive, with a focus on the upward trend in upstream raw material prices, monthly sales, and the implementation of industry regulations [2][3] - The domestic electric vehicle market is supported by favorable policies, leading to a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales and production [54][55] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the price trends of upstream materials and the performance of leading companies in the sector [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Data Tracking 1.1 Upstream Materials - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate averaged 72,500 CNY/ton, up 1.4% from last week; battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 75,500 CNY/ton, up 1.34% [8][9] - The price of ternary material 523 single crystal power market is 110,000 CNY/ton, up 0.05 million CNY/ton; high nickel 811 multi-crystal power material price is 146,000 CNY/ton, down 0.3 million CNY/ton [21] - The negative electrode material market remains stable with a reference price of 33,000 CNY/ton [27] - Electrolyte prices are stable, with phosphate iron lithium electrolyte averaging 18,300 CNY/ton [35] 1.2 Midstream Materials - Ternary material production in August was 60,707 tons, with actual consumption of 57,728.41 tons, up 15.38% month-on-month [26] - The negative electrode material market price remains stable at 32,378 CNY/ton [27] - Electrolyte production for the week was 29,670 tons, up 6.08% from the previous week [38] 1.3 Downstream Battery Cells - The average price of square power cells (ternary) is 0.46 CNY/Wh, while phosphate iron lithium cells are 0.37 CNY/Wh, both stable from last week [49] - Cumulative battery production from January to August reached 623.1 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 36.3% [51] 2. Recent News Events - The Chinese government has initiated an anti-discrimination investigation regarding Canada's restrictions on electric vehicles [54] - Sichuan province has introduced a subsidy of up to 17,000 CNY for trading in old cars for new energy vehicles [54]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The stock market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 21.91% and the Wind All A Index rising by 26.30% during the week ending September 30, 2024, leading to concerns about potential negative feedback effects on wealth management products due to stock market capital absorption and bond market adjustments [1][8] - The wealth management product scale decreased by 962.8 billion to 28.91 trillion yuan, which is consistent with seasonal adjustments observed in the past three years [1][8] - Post-holiday, there was a noticeable redemption of wealth management products, with a redemption ratio around 2%, which is lower than the 5% observed in the previous year, indicating no immediate liquidity risks [1][8] Summary by Sections 1. Stock Market Impact on Wealth Management - The stock market's strong performance has raised concerns about potential negative feedback effects on wealth management products due to capital absorption from the stock market and adjustments in the bond market [1][8] - The wealth management scale saw a decrease of 962.8 billion yuan, aligning with historical seasonal trends [1][8] 2. Cash Management Product Yields - As of October 6, 2024, the annualized yield for cash management products was 1.71%, a decrease of 7 basis points from the previous week, while money market funds yielded 1.54%, down 10 basis points [9] 3. Performance Review of Wealth Management Products - The annualized yield for daily open fixed-income non-cash wealth management products was 2.25%, down 30 basis points from the previous week [10] - The annualized yield for closed 6-12 month fixed-income products was 3.43%, down 16 basis points, while the yield for closed 1-3 year fixed-income products increased by 57 basis points to 4.07% [10] 4. Redemption and Compliance Rates - During the week of September 23-29, 2024, the scale of maturing wealth management products was 455.1 billion yuan, with an average compliance rate of 55% [13] - Closed products showed a higher compliance rate of 79%, outperforming the overall compliance rate [13]