事件：当地时间 12 月 2 日，美国芯片大厂 Marvell 宣布同亚马逊 AWS 达成一 份为 5 年的协议，Marvell 将向 AWS 提供的系列芯片包括定制 AI 产品、有缘 电缆（AEC）、PCIe 重定时器（Retimer）等。 事件分析： 高速铜缆分为无源铜缆和有源铜缆两类。无源铜缆 DAC，即直连线缆或直连， 铜缆是无源线缆。无源 DAC 有着低成本、低功耗、高可靠性等优点，常用于 数据中心同机柜或相邻机柜之间的数据传输，是目前高速线缆市场主流产 品。有源铜缆，是无源铜缆的演进，随着传输速率的提升，无源铜缆损耗过大无法 满足互联长度，有源铜缆应需而出，即在 DAC 基础上加入信号调节芯片后，即形 成有源电缆，分为 ACC 和 AEC。其中 ACC 使用 ReDriver 技术，适合短距离应用。 AEC 采用 Retimer 技术，支持更长距离和更高稳定性。目前，无源铜缆由于传输 距离较短所以一般用于机柜内设备间的互连；有源电缆的传输距离相对长些，可用 于机柜间设备的互连。 2025 年 01 月 05 日 行业研究●证券研究报告 "无源+有源"铜缆并行，构筑数据中心底层连 投资要点 无源铜缆 ...

2025 年 01 月 05 日 策略类●证券研究报告 连续剧烈博弈之后风险偏好选择向下，休整期或已经事实性开启 新股专题 投资要点 新股周观点：在连续两个交易周两级极限拉扯之后，伴随外部驱动力有所减弱，上 周新股次新板块出现剧烈休整，风险偏好选择向下，或宣告休整周期已经事实性开 启；回顾来看，12 月中上旬新股情绪指标已经开始明显弱势，截至当前，休整期 可能已经持续月余，伴随上周情绪指标有触及冰点迹象，可能也无须过度悲观，新 的投资机会或也将逐渐孕育。短期建议适度谨慎，耐心观察，重视估值性价比。 （1）上周，整体新股次新板块呈现剧烈调整，弱势加剧；假设以 2024 年以来上 市的新股次新板块比较来看，上周平均周涨幅约-11.2%，实现正收益占比约 5.1%。 （2）在连续二个交易周两级极限拉扯之后，方向选择或是应有之义；而随着此前 被反复拉抬的局部高人气产业链新股次新标的稍有弱势，整体本就较为低迷的新股 板块交投情绪加剧下行，短端新股二级情绪指标甚至有触及冰点迹象。 （3）可能本次方向选择切实宣告新股次新板块已经步入休整周期，结合新股二级 情绪指标走弱时间，可能自 2024 年 12 月中上旬休整周期已经事 ...

春季行情还有吗？ 定期报告 投资要点 2025 年 01 月 04 日 策略类●证券研究报告 | 分析师 | 邓利军 | | --- | --- | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 | | | denglijun@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 张欣诺 | | | zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 张诗瀑 | | | zhangshipu@huajinsc.cn | 相关报告 新股二级交投持续呈现显著的分歧，当前或 正处于关键方向选择窗口-华金证券新股周 报 2024.12.30 一月可能继续震荡偏强，中小盘成长占优 2024.12.28 1 月金股推荐 2024.12.25 短期调整不改中小盘成长占优 2024.12.23 外力依旧是板块结构性活跃的重要驱动力， 或需警惕两级分化加剧-华金证券新股周报 2024.12.22 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 16 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 历史上春季行情节奏不一，政策或流动性偏紧、外部风险事件等可能导致震荡出现。 （1）历史上春季行情节奏各有不同。 ...

2025 年 01 月 03 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 消费内需带动制造业 PMI 平稳收官——PMI 点评（2024.12） 2024.12.31 利润跌幅收窄，主因降息降费——工业企业 利润点评（2024.11）暨双循环周报（第 88 期） 2024.12.27 日英央行按兵不动，无力扭转汇率跳水趋势 ——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 87 期） 长期国债收益率连续快速下行，美元指数却开年飙升人民币贬破 7.3。汇率约束下 如何实施好"适度宽松"的货币政策？这成为央行当前必须解决的、又会对春节前 后债市股市造成直接影响的一个关键问题。2024 年 12 月初我国 10 年国债收益率 降至2%以下低位运行，中下旬下行斜率迅速趋陡，至2025年1月2日报于1.6077% 的历史低位，较 2024 年 11 月末低达 41BP。与此同时，美国债券市场则开始定价 美联储年内最后一次会议降息同时给出的鹰派展望、以及导致美联储转鹰的特朗普 激进 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but it is implied that the company is being covered for potential investment opportunities [33]. Core Insights - The company, 超研股份 (Chao Yan Co., Ltd.), specializes in the research, production, and sales of medical imaging equipment and industrial non-destructive testing equipment. It has a significant market presence in the ultrasound diagnostic equipment sector in China [7][21]. - The company reported revenues of 284.1 million CNY in 2021, 336.2 million CNY in 2022, and 326.5 million CNY in 2023, with year-over-year changes of -11.73%, 18.34%, and -2.87% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 76.8 million CNY in 2021, 127.1 million CNY in 2022, and 115.4 million CNY in 2023, with year-over-year changes of -4.10%, 65.48%, and -9.16% respectively [8][5]. - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 261 million CNY, a year-over-year increase of 10.75%, and a net profit of 92 million CNY, a year-over-year increase of 10.05% [8][21]. - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of 14.54% and a net profit growth of 9.74% in 2024 compared to 2023, according to management's preliminary forecasts [8][28]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company has shown fluctuations in revenue and profit over the past three years, with a notable increase in 2022 followed by a slight decline in 2023. The revenue breakdown for 2023 indicates that medical ultrasound equipment accounted for 50.16% of total revenue [8][5]. Industry Situation - The global ultrasound medical imaging equipment market is projected to grow from 197,683 units in 2019 to 305,989 units by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.13%. China is expected to capture 60% of this growth, highlighting its potential as a key market [15][16]. Company Highlights - 超研股份 is recognized as a leading supplier of ultrasound diagnostic instruments in China, with a strong historical background dating back to 1983 when it developed the first domestically produced ultrasound device. The company has established partnerships with over 15,000 hospitals nationwide [21][23]. - The company is actively expanding its product lines into portable DR equipment, medical auxiliary diagnosis systems, and industrial non-destructive testing equipment, with several new products launched between 2023 and 2024 [24][21]. Fundraising Project Investment - The company plans to invest in four key projects through its IPO, including the development of medical imaging products, industrial non-destructive testing systems, portable DR systems, and the establishment of an innovation base [25][27]. Comparison with Industry Peers - In comparison to similar companies, 超研股份 has a lower revenue scale but maintains a competitive gross margin. The average revenue for comparable companies in 2023 was 6.099 billion CNY, with an average PE-TTM of 36.14X and an average gross margin of 54.96% [28][29].

2025 年 01 月 03 日 行业研究●证券研究报告 "跨端+IP"注入动能，关注 PC 游戏复苏趋势 传媒：上海发布人工智能新方案，AI 算力供需 双 端 或 迎 催 化 - 华 金 证 券 - 传 媒 - 行 业 快 报 2024.12.28 传媒："启元重症大模型"发布，"AI+"落地应 用 再 提 速 - 华 金 证 券 - 传 媒 - 行 业 快 报 2024.12.27 传媒：DeepSeek-V3 正式发布，国内 AI 模型 多领域提质增效-华金证券-传媒-行业快报 2024.12.27 投资要点 传媒 行业快报 投资评级 领先大市(维持) 首选股票 评级 一年行业表现 资料来源：聚源 | 升幅% | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -6.94 | 10.13 | -9.85 | | 绝对收益 | -10.17 | 5.21 | 2.96 | | 分析师 | | | 倪爽 | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910523020003 | | | | | nishuang@huajinsc.cn | | | | 报告联系人 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company or industry Core Insights - Timing remains a key factor in enhancing investment returns and success rates in the secondary market, with new stocks listed during upward cycles performing significantly better than those listed at other times [3] - The average secondary market investment return for new stocks reached 22.47%, an increase of 8.27 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decline in average investment success rates to 27.63%, down 7.26 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The analysis indicates that the month of listing has the most significant impact on secondary market investment returns, with September, May, and August showing superior performance [3] Summary by Sections 1. New Stock Supply and Fundraising - In 2024, a total of 76 new stocks were listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, a decrease of 160 from 2023, primarily due to regulatory changes [35] - The total fundraising amount for new stocks in 2024 was 591.74 billion, down 82.69% from 2023, reflecting a significant reduction in the number of new listings and a more restrained financing environment [36][111] - The average fundraising amount for new stocks was 7.79 million, a decrease of 46.24% year-on-year [111] 2. New Stock Performance - The average opening return for new stocks in 2024 was 233.30%, approximately 3.58 times that of 2023, with only one stock experiencing a decline in price [31][122] - The average closing return for new stocks was 262.70%, also about 3.52 times that of 2023 [122] - The new stock performance was highest in the ChiNext board, with an average opening return of 279.48% and a closing return of 307.04% [127] 3. Industry Analysis - The industries with the highest average secondary market investment returns included computer, national defense, and biomedicine, with the ChiNext board stocks leading in both investment success rates and returns [60][90] - The average secondary market investment return for ChiNext stocks was 32.79%, significantly higher than the main board's 5.29% [60] - The highest average opening returns for new stocks were observed in the months of October and November, attributed to increased market activity following significant policy changes [53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the relevant market index over the next 6-12 months [4][15]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated a clear advantage with its "geese formation" strategy, continuously expanding its downstream market [10]. - The flagship chip, RK3588, is positioned as a leading product with strong performance and high versatility, driving the company's platform in various AIoT fields [10]. - The company has maintained high R&D investment over the past three years, launching multiple new products, and is capable of providing a diverse range of AIoT chips with performance levels from 0.2TOPs to 6TOPs [10]. - The report anticipates revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 3.052 billion yuan, 4.014 billion yuan, and 5.198 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [11]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 520 million yuan, 782 million yuan, and 1.148 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 53.6, 35.6, and 24.2 [11][13]. - The total assets are projected to grow from 4.266 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.178 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a strong financial position [13]. - The report highlights a significant increase in gross margin and net profit margin, with expectations of 36.0% and 17.0% respectively for 2024 [11][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [20][24]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that starting from January 2025, TSMC will increase the foundry prices for its 3nm, 5nm, and CoWoS processes by 5% to 20% [20]. - There is a significant increase in demand for CoWoS and similar packaging capacities, projected to grow by 113% globally by 2025, driven by the strong demand for cloud AI accelerators [20]. - TSMC's monthly capacity is expected to rise to 65,000 wafers by the end of Q4 2025, with major clients like NVIDIA benefiting from this increase [20]. - The transition from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L is becoming evident, with NVIDIA's demand for CoWoS-L expected to surge from 32,000 wafers in 2024 to 380,000 wafers in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1018% [20]. - The report anticipates that by Q4 2025, CoWoS-L will account for 54.6% of TSMC's total CoWoS capacity, while CoWoS-S will represent 38.5% [20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the increasing prices of TSMC's 3nm and 5nm processes, which are expected to rise by 5% to 10%, and CoWoS technology prices are projected to increase by 15% to 20% due to high demand in the AI sector [20]. Market Demand - The demand for CoWoS packaging is driven by NVIDIA's products, which will utilize CoWoS-L technology in their B300 and GB300 series starting in 2025 [20]. - Other companies such as AMD and major tech firms like Broadcom, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google also show a certain level of demand for CoWoS technology [20]. Key Players - Major suppliers in the CoWoS market include TSMC, SPIL, and ASE, which are expanding their capacities to meet the growing demand [20].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - December manufacturing PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 to 50.1, remaining above the neutral level for the third consecutive month, indicating stable economic conditions[1] - New orders index rose by 0.2 to 51.0, reaching an 8-month high, reflecting improved overall demand in manufacturing[1] - Consumer goods PMI surged by 0.6 to 51.4, the second-highest level in 16 months, driven by the positive effects of consumption subsidies[1] Structural Challenges - Traditional investment-related indices and strategic emerging industry export orders showed structural weakness, with the export orders index dropping significantly by 3.3 to 44.2, the lowest since September[1] - The inventory index for finished goods rose slightly by 0.5 to 47.9, indicating ongoing challenges in the replenishment process due to declining infrastructure investment growth[1] Economic Outlook - The construction PMI increased sharply by 3.5 to 53.2, primarily influenced by the early Lunar New Year, rather than a trend improvement[1] - Service sector PMI rose by 1.9 to 52.0, reflecting strong consumer demand as the year-end approaches[1] - The report emphasizes that the stability of manufacturing PMI in 2025 will largely depend on the effectiveness of fiscal expansion policies aimed at boosting consumption[1]