2月24日，A股喜气洋洋，迎来马年的开门红，但拿着消费的，脸绿得发青，不说白酒高开低走，就是原来走得像模像样，俨然有老登带头大哥之势的中 免都封死跌停，以致公司都要出来回应。 自从23年春节来，消费已经连续四年春节没见过好脸色了，也连续四年没啥行情了。许多投资人觉得科技股已经涨很久了，对26年的消费是抱有期待的， 而现实又给了老登投资人一盆冷水。 当前是消费的至暗时刻，还是漫漫长夜继续？我们可以先来看一下消费的数据面。 史上最长的春节消费数据如何？ 春节是一个消费旺季，但落到我们投资上，其实主要是白酒和社服，后者包括免税、酒店、餐饮、出行等相关数据。 春节占白酒一年消费量的很大一部分，26年春节的白酒消费继续不给力，整体动销下滑了10-15%，不过临近春节前夕有所恢复。 茅台的批价持续往上走，站上了1700，除了茅台外，表现好的有五粮液，节前一周一些区域的动销恢复正增长，批价和春节成交价为780元+和800元+， 略超预期。但这个略超预期，终究是市场预期本来就低带来的，并不是白酒表现好了。分价格带看，中间的次高端是表现最差的一档，高不成低不就。 节前收盘后官方出了一个文件，三部门联合印发了《酿酒产业提质升级指 ...

数据说明：截至2025.12.31，崔志鹏具有8.4年证券从业经历，其中6.5年证券研究经历，1.9年证券投资 经历。崔志鹏历任基金：华商消费行业股票2024.1.3至今，华商甄选回报混合2024.1.3至今。文中观点来 自基金定期报告，仅为基金经理投资理念，基金的投资策略、费率信息详见基金招募说明书等法律文 件。 风险提示：本基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、恪尽职守、谨慎勤勉的态度管理和运用基金资产，但不保证 基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资者购买基金时，请认真阅读基金合同、招募说明书等基金法律 文件。敬请投资者选择符合风险承受能力、投资目标的产品。以上观点不代表投资建议，市场有风险， 基金投资需谨慎。 (责任编辑：叶景) 华商基金崔志鹏是清华大学金融硕士，2017年毕业后加入华商基金先后担任行业研究员、基金经理助 理，同时担任公司行业研究消费组组长，2024年1月起担任基金经理至今，是华商基金专业投研体系培 养的优秀人才。 多年来，华商基金崔志鹏一直专注深耕大消费领域，研究员阶段深度覆盖轻工、建材、食品饮料、纺织 服装、零售、社服等消费行业，基金经理助理阶段在"A+H"泛消费行业积累较广，研究范围下沉度较 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华金证券 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华金证券 春节前A 股短期走势对节后行情可能有一定影响。2010 年以来的16 年中，有9次春节前5 个交易日内上 证综指走强（弱）而节后1 个交易日上证综指下跌（上涨）；有12 次节前5 个交易日内上证综指涨跌与 节后5 个交易日内涨跌同向。 春季行情未完，春节期间风险可能有限，可持股过节。（1）今年春节期间经济和盈利预期可能改善。 一是春节出行、消费数据可能偏好。二是今年春节地产销售可能有所回暖：首先，低基数效应下今年春 节期间地产销售同比增速可能有所回升；其次，各地刺激地产销售的政策预期较强，春节假期期间地产 销售可能延续回暖趋势。（2）春节期间流动性可能维持宽松。一是春节期间宏观流动性可能维持宽 松：首先，海外方面，2 月11 日美国1 月CPI 数据将公布，2 月17 日美国零售数据将披露，预计美元指 数可能继续维持低位震荡，海外对国内流动性宽松的掣肘有限；其次，国内方面，春节前流动性季节性 紧张下央行可能加大净投放力度。二是春节前 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The spring market's main rising phase may see a rebound in growth sectors, particularly those with low valuation sentiment and significant future financing inflows[1] - Historical data shows that during the main rising phases, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by approximately 4% to 22%, averaging around 19 trading days[10] - Key sectors that performed well during previous main rising phases include media, electronics, and non-ferrous metals, which experienced substantial financing inflows[1] Group 2: Sector Performance - In the current spring market, technology growth sectors such as media, computing, and pharmaceuticals are expected to rebound due to low valuations and sentiment[2] - Financing inflows since December 17, 2025, have been significant in sectors like electronics, non-ferrous metals, and defense, driven by ongoing industry trends[18] - The main rising phase typically sees theme indices outperforming primary industry indices, with notable gains in sectors like integrated circuits and digital marketing[42] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Short-term economic recovery remains weak, with CPI growth recorded at 0.8% and PPI at -1.9%, indicating a gradual improvement in industrial profitability[23] - The short-term liquidity environment is expected to loosen further, with potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and domestic central bank actions[31] - Risk appetite is likely to increase due to positive policy implementations and limited overseas risks, such as the anticipated Fed rate cut[38]

盘面上看，保险、有色、券商、石油、化工、半导体等板块强势，人脑工程概念再度爆发，存储芯片、 黄金概念等活跃。 6日早盘，沪指强势拉升，突破前期高点，再创10年来新高；科创50指数涨近2%。 开源证券表示，当前A股市场已正式进入2026年"春季躁动"的预热与布局窗口。与过往普涨行情不同， 本轮躁动在宏观经济数据尚待验证、增量资金稳步入场的背景下，呈现出鲜明的"结构先行、机会轮 动"特征。整体布局思维仍建议围绕科技+PPI为主，但交易上可关注新的边际变化，其一为扩大内需的 政策表述不断强化下商贸、社服等消费出现局部热度，但整体的消费大beta或仍依赖数据的持续改善。 其二为岁末年初跨年强主题的机会，可重视商业航天与卫星产业链。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 截至午间收盘，沪指涨1.14%报4069.38点，深证成指涨0.81%，创业板指微跌0.04%，科创50指数涨 1.95%，上证50指数涨1.75%，沪深北三市合计成交17963亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the industry style is shifting from technology growth to upstream resources, midstream manufacturing, and downstream consumption as the PPI decline narrows and turns positive [1] - In the MSCI China A-share ESG sector, three main directions are highlighted: cyclical recovery industries such as energy metals, wind power equipment, and engineering machinery; technology growth areas like AI computing power and energy storage; and consumer recovery sectors including food and beverage, social services, and personal care [1] - The anti-involution policy is improving the supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, combined with resilient overseas demand, indicating a continued trend of profit recovery in ESG-related industries [1] Group 2 - The MSCI ESG ETF (159621) tracks the MSCI China A-share Renminbi ESG General Index (MSC278), which selects listed companies with robust ESG performance and positive improvement trends from the Chinese A-share market [1] - The index employs an industry-balanced distribution strategy, leaning towards core asset allocation, aiming to reflect the overall market performance of high-quality Chinese A-share companies that adhere to ESG investment principles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to perform positively in 2025, driven by the enhancement of China's economic strength, technological capabilities, and overall national power [1] Industry and Company Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" will solidify the foundation and fully exert efforts, aiming to continue the rapid economic development and long-term social stability by 2026, which may lead to a "bull market" in the capital market [1] - In terms of sector allocation, three recommendations are provided: 1. Focus on industries with high overseas business ratios, such as electronics, home appliances, automobiles, and power equipment, as the third quarter report of 2025 indicates a strong correlation between economic prosperity and exports [1] 2. As the economic cycle recovers and inflation rises as a lagging indicator, cyclical stocks are likely to attract incremental funds in the later stages of a bull market [1] 3. Pay attention to industries with potential bottom reversals, such as food and beverage, agriculture, social services, and pharmaceuticals, which have high odds of recovery [1] Thematic Investment Opportunities - Emphasis should be placed on breakthroughs in frontier technologies and industrial transformations, including AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Centers), embodied intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, controllable nuclear fusion, and quantum computing [1] Policy Recommendations - To enhance the capital market's function of coordinating investment and financing, suggestions include improving flexibility and confidentiality, diversifying listing standards, optimizing investor structure, building a technology-finance ecosystem, and deepening integration with Hong Kong and international collaboration [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all recommended stocks in the consumer sector [11][12][13][14][16][17][21][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights nine advantageous sectors within the consumer industry, including agriculture, retail, social services, automotive, textiles, light industry, food, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, with key stock recommendations for January 2026 [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the expected growth and profitability of the recommended companies, projecting significant increases in net profits and improvements in cash flow over the next few years [11][12][13][14][16][17][21][22]. Summary by Sector Agriculture - Recommended Stock: Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 154.9 billion, 160.2 billion, and 225.5 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 17, and 12 [11][27]. Retail - Recommended Stock: Shangmei Co., Ltd. (上美股份) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 11.2 million, 14.0 million, and 17.0 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 19, and 16 [12][27]. Social Services - Recommended Stock: Jinjiang Hotels (锦江酒店) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 9.53 million, 10.57 million, and 11.63 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 28, 25, and 23 [13][27]. Automotive - Recommended Stock: Top Group (拓普集团) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 27.8 million, 34.1 million, and 43.3 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 45, 37, and 29 [14][27]. Textiles - Recommended Stock: HLA (海澜之家) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 21.6 million, 23.1 million, and 24.5 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 13, and 12 [16][17][27]. Light Industry - Recommended Stock: Craft Home (匠心家居) - Projected net profits for 2025-2026 are 9.2 million and 12.0 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22 and 17 [17][27]. Food - Recommended Stock: Wancheng Group (万辰集团) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 12.81 million, 20.46 million, and 26.81 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30, 19, and 14 [18][27]. Home Appliances - Recommended Stock: Anker Innovations (安克创新) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 26.57 million, 31.98 million, and 38.95 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.5, 18.7, and 15.4 [21][27]. Pharmaceuticals - Recommended Stock: Zhaoyan New Drug (昭衍新药) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 0.61 million, 0.85 million, and 0.97 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 31.8, 22.9, and 19.9 [22][27].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华金证券 行业配置：明年1 月建议继续均衡配置科技成长、部分周期和消费等行业。（1）当前成长中的电力设 备、传媒等PEG 较低。（2）明年1 月建议继续均衡配置：一是政策和产业趋势向上的机械设备（机器 人）、军工（商业航天）、电新（核聚变、储能）、电子（半导体、AI 硬件）、通信（AI 硬件）、计 算机（AI 应用、卫星互联网）、传媒（AI 应用、游戏）、医药（创新药）等行业；二是可能补涨和基 本面可能边际改善的券商、消费（食品、商贸零售、社服）等行业。 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用，政策超预期变化，经济修复不及预期。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：郭栩彤 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华金证券 复盘历史，春季行情提前启动时A 股1 月表现偏强，主要受政策和外部事件、流动性等因素影响。 （1）春季行情提前启动时A 股1 月表现多偏强。（2）影响1月A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事 件、流动性等。一是政策和外部事件是影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The spring market rally is likely to continue in January, with A-shares expected to show a strong upward trend, driven by technology growth and certain cyclical industries [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Influences - Historical data indicates that when the spring market rally starts early, A-shares tend to perform strongly in January, influenced by policies, external events, and liquidity [2]. - Key factors affecting A-share performance in January include positive policies and external events, which can lead to an increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, as seen in past instances like the easing of US-China trade tensions in 2019 and the optimization of pandemic policies in 2023 [2]. - Liquidity plays a crucial role in January's A-share performance; a loose liquidity environment may lead to an increase in A-shares, while tight liquidity could result in weaker performance [2]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Outlook - Positive policy expectations are anticipated to rise in January, with potential announcements of provincial "14th Five-Year" plans and consumer stimulus measures [3]. - Global central banks are expected to continue easing, and the relationship between China and the US is likely to remain stable, with limited external risks [3]. - Economic recovery is expected to continue, albeit weakly, with corporate profit growth likely to improve, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors [3]. Group 3: Sector Performance Expectations - Technology growth and certain cyclical industries are expected to outperform in January, driven by upward trends in the technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, and demand for non-ferrous metals and chemicals [4]. - Historical analysis shows that when the spring market rally begins early, technology growth sectors tend to perform relatively better in January [4]. - The upcoming themes in January, such as commercial aerospace and controllable nuclear fusion, are expected to catalyze market interest [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended for January, focusing on technology growth, cyclical sectors, and consumer industries [5]. - Specific sectors suggested for investment include machinery (robots), military (commercial aerospace), new energy (nuclear fusion, energy storage), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), and media (AI applications, gaming) [5]. - There is potential for recovery in brokerage firms and consumer sectors (food, retail, and social services) that may see marginal improvements in fundamentals [5].