证券研究报告|行业专题 海外 2024年11月15日 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 证券分析师 姓名：郑嘉伟 资格编号： S1350523120001 邮箱： zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com | 证券分析师 姓名：于炳麟 资格编号： S1350524060002 邮箱： yubinglin@huayuanstock.com | 联系人 姓名：郑冰倩 资格编号： S1350124050014 邮箱： zhengbingqian@huayuan ...

证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 服装家纺 港股|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2024 年 11 月 13 日 证券分析师 羽绒服饰头部国牌，聚焦核心主业持续快速发展。公司成立于 1976 年，前期以代工 业务为主；自 1995 年起不断蕴育出波司登、雪中飞、冰洁等羽绒品牌，进入快速增 长阶段；2018 年，公司提出"聚焦主航道，收缩多元化"战略，将发展重心移向主 品牌。公司高管团队均具备丰富经验，带领公司在近年中实现营收及利润稳增长， 并不断在国际舞台展示创新产品，巩固公司品牌形象。 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-----------| | | | | 基本数据 收盘价（港元） | 4.28 | | 一年内最高/最低（港 元） | 5.14/3.05 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 47,487.74 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | 47,487.74 | | 资产负债率（%） 资料来源：聚源数据 | 46.38 | 波司登(0399 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the total renewable energy consumption responsibility weight has been steadily increasing, with the recent introduction of the Energy Law clarifying the roles of carbon dual control and green certificates in energy transformation. The expansion of green certificate trading and the maturation of market mechanisms are expected to lead to more reasonable pricing of green electricity environmental value, providing stronger support for the returns on green electricity assets [1][16] - The 2023 national renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight completion rate was 32.0%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the non-hydropower renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight completion rate was 18.1%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Consumption Responsibility Weight Completion - In 2023, all provinces completed their non-hydropower renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight, with 15 provinces exceeding 20% of their total electricity consumption from renewable sources [9][10] - Yunnan province improved its non-hydropower responsibility weight completion from 12.1% in 2022 to 17.8% in 2023, surpassing the assessment target by 0.8 percentage points [10][11] Section 2: Future Expectations - The 2024 consumption responsibility weight targets have been set, with all provinces expected to see an increase compared to 2023. The provinces with the fastest increases include Heilongjiang, Ningxia, Hubei, Jilin, and Henan [12][14] - The introduction of a green electricity consumption ratio target for the electrolytic aluminum industry in 2024 is anticipated to provide strong support for green certificate trading volumes and prices [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction and decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The construction sector is expected to benefit from the implementation of debt relief policies, with over 10 trillion yuan allocated to alleviate local government debt pressure, which is anticipated to restore investment willingness from local governments [4][11] - Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in infrastructure are highlighted as key investment opportunities, particularly companies like China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction [1][4] - The low-altitude economy is emerging as a new growth area, with design firms positioned to benefit from government policies promoting low-altitude economic development [2][10] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Infrastructure central SOEs have reported Q3 results slightly below expectations, attributed to cautious investment in the first three quarters. However, a rebound in infrastructure investment is anticipated in Q4 due to improved policies and regional projects [1][9] - The design sector is expected to see early benefits from low-altitude policies, with cities like Wuxi implementing supportive measures for low-altitude economic development [2][10] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.51%, while the construction and decoration index increased by 6.54% during the week [2] - Notable stock performances included Baijia Technology (+47.13%) and Daqian Ecology (+46.42%) [2] Funding Tracking - The issuance of special bonds reached 55.95 billion yuan this week, with a cumulative issuance of 55,024.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.32% [15] - Local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) saw a net financing amount of -4018.54 billion yuan, indicating a significant decline in financing activity [15] Industry News Summary - The approval of a resolution to increase local government debt limits by 60 billion yuan aims to replace hidden debts, enhancing local fiscal sustainability [16] - The construction industry is expected to benefit significantly from these debt relief measures, improving cash flow and receivables for construction companies [4][11]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In October 2024, new loans amounted to 500 billion RMB, a decrease from 738.4 billion RMB in the same month last year, indicating weak financing demand[1] - Total social financing (社融) in October was 1.4 trillion RMB, down from 1.84 trillion RMB in October 2023, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline[3] - M2 money supply reached 309.7 trillion RMB at the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, while M1 showed a decline of 6.1%[1][2] Group 2: Loan and Financing Trends - Individual loans increased by 160 billion RMB, slightly improving due to easing in the real estate sector and lower mortgage rates[1] - Corporate loans saw an increase of only 130 billion RMB, indicating continued weak financing demand from businesses[1] - The decline in social financing growth to 7.8% in October is attributed mainly to reduced government bond net financing and credit[3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to perform well, with anticipated government bond issuance reducing uncertainty in the fiscal landscape[4] - The forecast for the 10-year government bond yield is around 2.05%, while the 30-year yield is expected to reach 2.2%[4] - The expectation for new loans in 2024 is approximately 18 trillion RMB, which is a decrease of about 4 trillion RMB compared to the previous year[3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the media and internet industry as "Positive" for investment, marking it as the first rating of its kind [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of new game product cycles, particularly highlighting the upcoming releases from major companies like Tencent and Perfect World, which are expected to enhance the industry's overall performance [2][3]. - In the film sector, the report notes the anticipation surrounding key films scheduled for release during the 2025 Spring Festival, suggesting that quality content will drive demand and box office recovery [2][3]. - The AI application sector is highlighted as a growing area, with significant developments in AI companion products and short drama platforms, indicating a trend towards innovative content and business models [3][5]. Summary by Sections Game Industry - The report mentions several upcoming game releases, including Tencent's "Pokémon Unite" and Perfect World's "Zhu Xian World," which are expected to boost the gaming industry's market sentiment [2]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich new game reserves, such as Tencent, NetEase, and others, as they are likely to benefit from the new product cycles [2][3]. Film Industry - The report highlights the film "Feng Shen Part 2: War of the West Qi," set to release on January 29, 2025, and its predecessor's success, indicating a positive outlook for upcoming films [2]. - As of November 10, 2024, the total box office for the year reached 39.138 billion yuan, with expectations for recovery in box office performance driven by quality film releases during the upcoming festive seasons [2][3]. AI Applications - The report discusses the launch of a 3D AI companion product by Natural Selection (Shenzhen) Intelligent Co., which has gained significant attention on platforms like Bilibili [3]. - The AI short drama platform SkyReels is set to launch in the U.S. on December 10, 2024, showcasing the integration of various AI technologies, indicating a trend towards innovative content creation [3][5]. Market Performance - The report notes that from November 4 to November 8, 2024, the media sector saw a 7.25% increase, ranking it ninth among all industries [9][10]. - The report identifies top-performing stocks in the media sector, including Jia Yun Technology and Hua Wen Group, which saw significant gains during the same period [13][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The aviation and logistics sectors show significant relative returns, with expectations for cyclical improvements in the transportation industry [2] - Beijing's two airports have surpassed a cumulative passenger throughput of 100 million this year, marking a 29% increase compared to the same period in 2023 and a recovery of 118% compared to 2019 [1][6] - The BAI index has risen, indicating positive trends in air cargo, with the BAI100 at 2343.00, up 4.1% week-on-week and 10.9% year-on-year [1][6] - The shipping sector is expected to see sustained growth due to limited new orders for oil tankers and an aging fleet, alongside increasing demand driven by non-OPEC production [8] - The express delivery sector remains resilient, with demand holding strong and prices at historical lows, suggesting limited downside [8] Summary by Sections Shipping Vessels - Limited new orders for oil tankers combined with an aging fleet create supply tightness, while increasing non-OPEC production benefits oil transportation demand [8] - The dry bulk shipping market is experiencing weak supply and demand, but environmental regulations are pushing out older vessels, aiding market recovery [8] - The shipbuilding cycle is beginning a green upgrade phase, with tight shipbuilding capacity expected to drive up ship prices [8] Express Delivery - Current express delivery demand is robust, with terminal prices at historical lows and limited downward space [8] - The industry is entering a peak season, with expectations for price increases and improved sentiment [8] - Long-term focus on leading companies is recommended due to their competitive advantages in capacity, scale, pricing, and cost reduction [8] Supply Chain Logistics - The express logistics landscape is improving, with competition slowing down and cyclical elasticity expected [8] - Chemical logistics present significant market opportunities, with tightening entry barriers and potential for consolidation [8] Aviation - Current focus on holiday travel data suggests further improvement in aviation demand, supported by a favorable competitive landscape and supply-demand dynamics [9] - The industry is expected to see low supply growth with high certainty, and international routes are showing signs of recovery [9]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Positive** investment rating for the utilities sector [1] Core Views - Trump's re-election is expected to accelerate traditional energy development, potentially leading to a decline in international energy prices and benefiting traditional energy sectors like thermal power [2][14] - The US may withdraw from the Paris Agreement, creating opportunities for strengthened China-EU cooperation in carbon neutrality [2][15] - The newly enacted **Energy Law** in China emphasizes the dual control of carbon emissions and the role of green certificates in energy transition, which is expected to benefit green power operators in the long term [3][19][21] Trump's Impact on Energy Sector - Trump's policies are expected to focus on traditional energy, including oil, natural gas, and coal, while opposing ESG investments and reducing subsidies for renewable energy [2][7][8] - The US is likely to increase fossil fuel exports, which could impact global energy prices and benefit China's traditional energy sectors [14] - Trump's administration may withdraw from the Paris Agreement, potentially weakening international climate cooperation but strengthening China-EU collaboration [15][16] Energy Law Highlights - The **Energy Law** introduces a dual control system for carbon emissions, transitioning from energy consumption control to carbon emission control [19][20] - Green certificates are recognized as a core mechanism for promoting green energy consumption, which could enhance the environmental value of green power [21] - The law expands its scope to include new energy sources, biomass, energy storage, hydrogen, and grid infrastructure, providing a comprehensive framework for China's energy transition [22][24] Investment Recommendations - Focus on traditional energy sectors benefiting from falling coal prices, such as thermal power, with recommendations for companies like **Shanghai Electric Power** [4][14] - Continue to recommend undervalued green power operators in Hong Kong, such as **Longyuan Power** and **Datang Renewable Energy**, and A-share companies like **Three Gorges Energy** and **Guangxi Energy** [4][18] - Pay attention to power equipment exporters, including **Huaming Equipment** and **Sifang Electric**, as the US plans to modernize its grid infrastructure [4][18] Key Company Valuations - The report provides detailed valuations for key companies in the utilities sector, including traditional power, renewable energy, and power equipment companies [25][26][27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the sector [3][4][6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a regional leader in lead and zinc mining, with a robust employee stock ownership plan that supports high-quality development. The company has shown steady growth in revenue and gross profit as production capacity increases [3][11]. - The integration of the Jianglu mining area is expected to significantly enhance both production capacity and performance, with an anticipated increase of 150,000 tons per year in lead and zinc output post-integration [4][6]. - The report highlights a favorable market environment due to a reduction in supply from lead and zinc mines, leading to rising prices and expanding profitability for mining companies [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company operates primarily in lead and zinc mining, with a total lead and zinc reserve of 2.41 million metal tons as of June 2024, and an annual mining capacity of 1.78 million tons [3][23]. - The company has increased its mining and processing capacity significantly since its IPO, with mining capacity up by 280,000 tons per year and processing capacity up by 330,000 tons per year [3][23]. 2. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.28 billion RMB in 2023, with a projected increase to 1.45 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 13.02% [5][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 498 million RMB in 2024, with a corresponding PE ratio of 24X [4][6]. 3. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant contraction in the supply of lead and zinc, with refined lead and zinc prices on the rise, contributing to a favorable profit outlook for the company [4][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in processing costs, which could further enhance profitability [4][6]. 4. Future Projections - The company anticipates a net profit of 4.98 billion RMB in 2024, increasing to 9.34 billion RMB by 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 24X, 17X, and 13X respectively [4][6]. - The integration of the Jianglu mining area is projected to add significant production capacity and profitability, with potential net profits estimated at 6.74 billion RMB under favorable market conditions [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant surge, with core asset prices reaching historical highs due to the election of Trump and a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4][3]. - The total market capitalization of the global cryptocurrency market has increased to $2.5 trillion as of November 8, 2024, up from $2.33 trillion the previous week [17][4]. - The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is currently in the "Greed" zone, with a Fear and Greed Index reading of 72 [17][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI - The U.S. election results have led to a rise in tech stocks, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 4.1% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 5.8% for the week [8][9]. - Key companies that saw significant stock price increases include Tesla (+29%), Xpeng Motors (+26%), and GlobalFoundries (+20%) [8][9]. 2. Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market has shown substantial growth, with a total trading volume of $132.06 billion on November 8, 2024, representing 5.28% of the total market capitalization [17]. - The top five companies in the cryptocurrency sector that experienced the highest stock price increases this week include Coinbase Global (+48%), Cipher Mining (+36%), and Riot Blockchain (+36%) [21]. - The report highlights the potential of Small Modular Reactors (SMR) as a more attractive power supply solution for data centers, with major companies like Amazon investing significantly in SMR technology [12][13].