Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent oil price may continue to show high - volatility trends under the influence of highly uncertain geopolitical factors, and it is difficult to have an obvious trend. It is recommended to take a bullish approach in operation, but beware of the risk of a rapid short - term correction due to geopolitical cooling [12][66]. Summary by Directory 1. Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price was affected by geopolitical factors and reached new highs since February. It is expected that political factors will remain the core support for the oil price this week, with some upward potential. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish approach for the domestic energy sector, but beware of short - term rapid oil price corrections due to geopolitical cooling [12]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the overall oil price was strong, mainly affected by the Iran - Israel conflict in the Middle East. Although the market briefly declined due to the "US - Iran call" news over the weekend, subsequent events such as the US joining the action against Iran and Iran's tough stance boosted the oil price again [18]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Macro - aspects - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in the June meeting, which was in line with market expectations. The semi - annual monetary policy report also reiterated "wait - and - see before cutting interest rates", suppressing the short - term interest rate cut expectations [23]. - There is uncertainty about the successor to the Fed Chairman. Trump's criticism of Powell may affect subsequent Fed decisions and market expectations [26]. - The Iran - Israel conflict continued to escalate last week. Israel aimed to "eliminate Khamenei", and Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US also launched attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, making it difficult for the conflict to cool down in the short term and keeping the oil price volatile [30]. 3.2 Supply - aspects - In May, OPEC achieved a production increase of 183,000 barrels per day, and OPEC + increased production by 180,000 barrels per day in total [33]. - Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. If the war escalates, it may cut off oil transportation through the strait, affecting about 22 million barrels of daily global oil transportation, which would impact the global supply - demand pattern [34]. - Saudi Arabia's oil production increased, while Iraq compensated for production cuts, and the US production remained stable [33][41][44]. 3.3 Demand - aspects - There is a slight improvement in summer demand expectations, but the manufacturing industries in China and the US continue to contract. However, the production of refined oil products continues to pick up [47][50][56]. 3.4 Inventory - aspects - US crude oil inventories from June 5 - 13 showed a significant decline, with API inventories dropping by 10.133 million barrels and EIA inventories dropping by 11.473 million barrels, which may support the WTI price [58]. - US refined oil inventories continued to accumulate. Gasoline and refined oil inventories increased last week, which may lead to a weakening of gasoline and diesel prices and a potential narrowing of the crack spread [61]. 4. Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the oil price was strong, though the weekly gain was limited over the weekend. The supply - side uncertainty in the commodity attribute, the Fed's interest rate decision in the financial attribute, and the high uncertainty of the Iran - Israel conflict in the political attribute all affect the oil price. Overall, the oil price may be highly volatile, and a bullish approach is recommended with caution for short - term corrections [66].

Report Overview - The report is titled "Chang'an Research - Methanol Weekly Report", dated June 23, 2025, focusing on the methanol market [1][2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core View - Due to the unresolved Middle - East geopolitical conflict, methanol prices continue to rise. Iranian methanol plants are shut down, increasing import reduction expectations and strengthening the basis in coastal areas. The rise in crude oil prices also has a positive feedback on methanol prices. Domestically, supply is increasing, while demand is stable with limited growth. The short - term market trend depends on the geopolitical situation. If tensions persist, the market will be stable and slightly strong; if the situation eases, prices will fall from high levels. The impact of Iranian production and export restrictions will be felt after July, and near - month contracts are relatively stronger. However, the potential for price increase is limited as the current prices are close to the annual high, and the risk of further price speculation is increasing [3][25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures continued to rise. Geopolitical conflict news in the Middle - East fermented, causing significant fluctuations in energy and chemical products. As Iran is the main source of China's methanol imports, the supply - side impact on methanol was more severe. The 2509 contract rose by over 5% last week. In the spot market, prices in various regions increased significantly, and the basis in Jiangsu's Taicang expanded. The price difference between regions widened, opening up arbitrage opportunities [6] 3.2 Supply Side - **Domestic Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol plants increased last week, and production continued to rise. Some previously shut - down or reduced - load plants resumed operation, and the overall recovery volume exceeded the loss. The current profit margins give little incentive for manufacturers to reduce production, and there are no planned maintenance plants in the near future. The capacity utilization rate was 88.65%, up 0.67 percentage points month - on - month and 5.12 percentage points year - on - year. Weekly production was 199.78 tons, up 1.52 tons month - on - month and 24.86 tons year - on - year [8] - **Overseas Supply**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate dropped significantly. The international methanol plant operating rate was 55.11%, down 15.8 percentage points month - on - month, and weekly production was 80.39 tons, down 23.05 tons month - on - month. Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, Iranian methanol plants have all shut down, and there is a high possibility of further conflict escalation. Non - Iranian plants in North and South America are operating stably, while some in Southeast Asia and Africa have reduced production. Import reduction in July is almost certain [10] 3.3 Demand Side - In the demand side, port prices have risen sharply, leading to traders hoarding goods and downstream resistance. In the inland market, although price increases are smaller, downstream industries' profit margins have shrunk, and most enterprises are facing increased losses. As it is the consumption off - season, there is a greater expectation of plant load reduction. The MTO plant capacity utilization rate was 89.2%, up 0.64 percentage points month - on - month and 16.53 percentage points year - on - year. However, MTO plant losses have increased, and there is a possibility of load reduction in the future. The capacity utilization rates of traditional downstream plants vary, with some increasing and some decreasing [11][15] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the methanol arrival volume at ports decreased, and ports significantly reduced inventory. This week's planned arrival volume is similar to last week's. However, due to the widened price difference between ports and inland areas, the arbitrage window has opened, and inland supply through road transportation has increased. With reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, ports may see inventory accumulation. As of June 20, coastal port methanol inventory was 95.38 tons, down 7.76 tons month - on - month and 16.31 tons year - on - year. Manufacturer inventory decreased, mainly in East, Central, and Southwest China. With the opening of the arbitrage window, manufacturers may continue to reduce inventory, supporting inland prices. As of June 20, manufacturer inventory was 36.74 tons, down 1.18 tons month - on - month and 5.99 tons year - on - year [17][18] 3.5 Cost Side - Last week, methanol prices rebounded significantly, increasing the profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol plants and narrowing the losses of southwest natural - gas - based plants. Coal prices slightly increased last week, with a decrease in inventory at northern ports. Market sentiment improved, and the number of inquiries increased. However, downstream users are still observing, and terminal users are only making necessary purchases. Although coal production is expected to increase slightly in June, the growth may be limited due to safety inspections. On the demand side, as it enters the peak electricity - coal consumption season, coal prices have stopped falling, but due to high inventory and the substitution effect of clean energy, the supply - demand situation remains weak, and coal price increases are expected to be limited [20][21] 3.6 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are strongly fluctuating. Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, international crude oil prices have risen significantly. Although the current price is in a high - level shock and has not further increased, the main support comes from the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. There are also new positive factors such as the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, there are also negative factors, such as the IEA's significant increase in supply growth expectations and the continued export of Iranian oil. The future trend depends on Iran's response and whether the conflict will expand [23][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and soared rapidly in the second half due to the Iran - Israel conflict, with weekly gains of over 12% for the three major crude oil futures. In the current market, the export issues of Iranian crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz may be re - priced. With the arrival of the summer consumption peak season, the support for oil prices will strengthen. The recent US economic data has boosted the market's interest - rate cut expectation, alleviating the macro - economic pressure. The Iran - Israel conflict has increased market risk appetite, which may further boost oil prices. Therefore, there is still room for oil prices to rise, and it is recommended to operate cautiously with a bullish bias and consider shorting the crack spread of refined oil products [13][20][64]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the latter half of the oil price was affected by the Iran - Israel conflict and soared rapidly, with the three major crude oil futures recording weekly gains of over 12%. In the absence of an obvious sign of easing in the geopolitical conflict this week, there may still be a small upward space for oil prices. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [535 - 565] yuan/barrel and consider cautious bottom - fishing for long positions. However, be aware of the rapid decline in oil prices when there is news of geopolitical easing [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and then quickly rose in the second half due to the Iran - Israel conflict, resulting in weekly gains of over 12% for the three major crude oil futures. Currently, the Iran - Israel conflict has not had a substantial impact on crude oil exports in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked or the war spreads to neighboring producing countries, oil prices will still have upward potential [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Macro - economy**: - US economic data is improving. The May CPI data was lower than expected, and the initial and continuing jobless claims increased, along with weak PPI data. This has increased the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in September to over 80%, reducing the upward pressure on oil prices [25]. - The Iran - Israel conflict has escalated rapidly. Israel launched a large - scale military operation against Iran on June 13, and Iran retaliated. The nuclear negotiation between Iran and the US was cancelled. If the conflict spreads to the Strait of Hormuz, it may disrupt crude oil exports and open up upward space for oil prices [31]. - **Supply**: - According to the May monthly report, OPEC + production decreased by 106 thousand barrels per day from March to April. If the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, nearly 80% of crude oil transportation will be affected, with only Saudi Arabia and the UAE having some alternative transportation capabilities [34][35]. - There are still contradictions between Saudi Arabia and Russia in production. The US production remains stable [39][42]. - **Demand**: - Attention should be paid to changes in institutional expectations. The manufacturing industries in China and the US are contracting, but refined oil production has shown a slight recovery [45][48][54]. - **Inventory**: - US crude oil inventories are decreasing, mainly due to the recovery of consumption. US refineries' daily crude oil processing volume has reached a peak since July 2024, indicating a recovery in North American consumption [56]. - US refined oil inventories are increasing, which may narrow the crack spread [59]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and soared after the Iran - Israel conflict. The market may re - price the export issues of Iranian crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz. With the summer consumption peak season and the boost of the interest - rate cut expectation, and the ongoing Iran - Israel conflict, there is still upward space for oil prices. It is recommended to operate cautiously with a bullish bias and consider shorting the crack spread of refined oil products [64].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, be cautious about short - selling near - month contracts. Although the demand is in a phased weakening, the agricultural demand for fertilizers is not over yet, and there is still some purchasing demand support in the future. - In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship will gradually become looser. After the agricultural demand ends, the urea demand will seasonally weaken, the industrial demand cannot support alone, and there is no sign of export liberalization, so there is significant downward pressure on urea [2][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - Last week, the domestic urea market showed a volatile trend of first decline and then rise, with the overall price center shifting down. After the Qingming Festival, affected by factors such as insufficient downstream demand, restricted logistics, and the US tariff increase policy, the market was weak at first. Then, as production enterprises cut prices to receive orders, the market replenishment demand was released, and the market improved in the second half of the week. - On April 11, the mainstream prices of small - particle urea in various regions declined. For example, the mainstream price in Henan was 1910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - International urea prices declined. For example, the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Middle East was 387 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period. The export is still under control, and the possibility of liberalization is low [6][8]. 3.2 Supply Side - The domestic urea plant capacity utilization rate remained high, with an overall high supply pressure. Last week, the domestic urea plant capacity utilization rate was 86.41%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase compared with the previous period, and 1.62 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The daily average output was 19.44 tons, a 0.6% increase compared with the previous period and a 5.88% increase compared with the same period last year. - Among different processes, the capacity utilization rate of natural gas plants increased, while that of coal - based plants decreased. There were many changes in coal - head plants during the statistical period. This week, some previously shut - down plants are planned to restart, so the supply side still has pressure [9][10]. 3.3 Demand Side - Agricultural demand is in a phased window period. Spring fertilizers are coming to an end, and the connection with summer fertilizers is poor. The demand for corn top - dressing in North China is delayed, and the fertilization progress in the South is behind schedule. The demand for compound fertilizers is also weakening. - On April 11, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants was 48.89%, a 3.5 - percentage - point decrease compared with the previous period. The inventory of sample enterprises increased. - The capacity utilization rate of melamine plants increased, and the weekly output increased significantly. However, the downstream demand for raw materials is weakening [12][13][15]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of urea manufacturers increased. Last week, the inventory was 83.37 tons, a 10.54% increase compared with the previous period and 31.44% higher than the same period last year. With the digestion of macro - negative sentiment, downstream replenishment may drive the enterprise inventory down. - The port inventory remained stable at 11.9 tons, with no change compared with the previous period and a decrease of 7.6 tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected to remain at the current level in the short term [16][19]. 3.5 Cost Side - As the urea price declined, the profits of various production methods shrank or the losses widened. The industry still has a profit margin overall. Fixed - bed process theory profit was - 114 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; water - coal - slurry process theory profit was 289 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton; natural - gas - making process theory profit was - 91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. - Last week, coal prices were basically stable. The supply - side production was stable, but the downstream demand was weak. The coal price rebounded slightly but the supply - demand situation of strong supply and weak demand remained unchanged, and the rebound range was limited [20][21].

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call pertains to the automotive industry, specifically focusing on Chang'an Automobile and its sales data for September [1]. Core Points and Arguments - The call begins with a welcome message and a disclaimer, indicating that the meeting is about the sales performance of Chang'an Automobile in September [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The meeting is structured to provide insights into the sales data, suggesting that there may be significant information regarding market trends and company performance that will be discussed [1].

Summary of Changan Automobile's July Sales Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Changan Automobile - **Date of Call**: August 6, 2024 Key Points Sales Performance - Total sales in July reached **171,000 vehicles**, showing a slight decline due to seasonal factors, but cumulative sales exceeded **1.5 million vehicles**, reflecting a **5.7% year-on-year growth** [1][2] - The **new energy vehicle (NEV)** segment saw significant growth, with sales of **45,000 vehicles**, a **15% year-on-year increase** [3] - The **Deep Blue brand** delivered **16,721 vehicles** in July, with cumulative deliveries surpassing **100,000 vehicles** in the first seven months [3][5] Product Launches and Innovations - Changan plans to launch new models, including the **Deep Blue S07** and various models in collaboration with Huawei, to drive sales growth [1] - The **Deep Blue S07**, a new mainstream mid-size SUV, was officially launched on July 25, featuring advanced technology in collaboration with Huawei [4] International Market Performance - Overseas sales of Changan's self-owned brands grew by **26% year-on-year**, with cumulative exports nearing **230,000 vehicles**, a **68% increase** [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in international markets, particularly in Latin America and Thailand, where it aims to strengthen its market position [7] Challenges and Strategic Responses - The decline in sales was primarily attributed to a **17.9% drop** in fuel vehicle sales due to intensified market competition and inventory control measures [7] - Changan is addressing supply chain challenges and enhancing market responsiveness through product innovation and channel optimization [1] Future Outlook - The company maintains an internal sales target of **2.8 million vehicles** for the year, aiming for a quarterly sales target of **700,000 vehicles** [7] - The NEV sales target for the year is set at approximately **750,000 vehicles** [8] - Upcoming product launches include the **Deep Blue SUV500** in September and the **Deep Blue SL03** in Q4, alongside new models from the Avita brand [8][10] Technological Advancements - The **Huawei ADS 3.0** technology will be integrated into Avita's models, with beta testing expected to begin in mid-August [12] - Avita plans to introduce range-extended hybrid models to meet market demand and enhance sales potential [14] Market Expansion Plans - Avita aims to expand its dealership network, targeting approximately **700-470 stores** by the end of the year, focusing on lower-tier cities [15] - The company is also planning to establish production bases in Thailand and other regions to support its global expansion strategy, with an expected annual overseas export volume of **480,000 vehicles** [16] Conclusion Changan Automobile is navigating a competitive landscape with strategic product launches, international expansion, and technological innovations while aiming to meet ambitious sales targets for the year. The focus on new energy vehicles and international markets positions the company for potential growth despite current challenges.

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company disclosed its semi-annual performance forecast on July 10, indicating an improvement in operational metrics for the second quarter compared to the previous quarter [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The preliminary estimates suggest that the operational performance ratio has increased quarter-over-quarter, which is attributed to specific underlying factors that were not detailed in the excerpt [1] Other Important Content - No additional significant details or overlooked content were provided in the excerpt [1]

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company disclosed its semi-annual performance forecast on July 10, indicating an improvement in operational metrics for the second quarter compared to the previous quarter [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The preliminary estimates suggest that the operational performance ratio for the second quarter has increased on a quarter-over-quarter basis [1] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The reasons behind the improvement in operational metrics were mentioned but not detailed in the provided content [1]

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company disclosed its semi-annual performance forecast on July 10, indicating an improvement in operational metrics for the second quarter compared to the previous quarter [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The preliminary estimates suggest that the operational performance ratio has increased quarter-over-quarter, which is attributed to specific underlying factors that were not detailed in the excerpt [1] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - No additional details or numerical data were provided in the excerpt to further elaborate on the performance metrics or the specific reasons for the improvement [1]

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call is related to the securities industry, specifically focusing on the insights provided by Zheshang Securities Research Institute [1] Core Points and Arguments - The content of the call is directed towards institutional investors and invited third-party guests, emphasizing that the opinions expressed are personal and do not constitute specific investment advice [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call serves as a reminder that all information shared is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as a judgment on specific securities or market performance at any given time [1]