Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Recently, under the combined effect of rumors of gas field inspections in Iran in the industrial aspect and the second fermentation of the anti - involution expectation in the macro aspect, methanol stopped falling and fluctuated strongly. Fundamentally, in the short term, the number of maintenance devices has increased, and supply may decline slightly, but compared with the same period in previous years, domestic supply is still relatively abundant. In terms of demand, MTO profits have recovered, the enthusiasm of external methanol - purchasing devices in the East China region to start work has increased, and Zhejiang Xingxing plans to restart. At the same time, with the arrival of the peak season, downstream demand has improved marginally. However, a significant increase in overseas supplies has led to accelerated inventory accumulation at ports, and the basis in the East China region has remained low. Methanol is still in a state of strong supply and weak demand. Recently, news of gas field inspections in Iran has boosted the market's bullish sentiment, and news related to anti - involution has once again driven up commodity prices. A short - term bullish and fluctuating approach should be taken, but the sustainability requires confirmation of news of reduced overseas supply and the strength of the demand side. Attention should be paid to taking profits [1][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Trend Review - Last week, methanol continued its weak trend. On Monday, boosted by news such as gas restrictions in Iran, the futures market rebounded from the bottom and then fluctuated. On Friday, affected by the second fermentation of anti - involution news, most industrial products rose, and the main methanol contract returned to the 2400 yuan/ton level. Although the spot market price increased, it was relatively weak compared with the futures market. The increase in imports led to continuous increases in port inventories, and the regional basis continued to weaken. The market price increase in the Northwest region was small, and manufacturers sold goods at discounted prices. On September 5, the import price in Taicang was 2275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the market price in Guangdong was 2270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton; the market price in southern Shandong was 2300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the mainstream market price in Sichuan and Chongqing was 2247.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 42.5 yuan/ton; the mainstream market price in Shaanxi was 2125 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton; and the mainstream market price in Inner Mongolia was 2067.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.5 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Supply Side - **Domestic Supply**: From January to August, the cumulative domestic methanol production was 67.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.76 million tons, or 13.05%. Recently, Xinjiang Tianye expanded its capacity to 600,000 tons/year, further increasing domestic production capacity. In the statistical period, multiple devices such as Xinxiang Zhongxin, Shanxi Linxin, and Shanxi Coking restarted, and there were few new maintenance and shutdown devices, so supply increased month - on - month. However, from the perspective of device maintenance plans, this week, some devices will stop production, and domestic supply may decline slightly. On September 5, the domestic methanol device capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.47 percentage points; the weekly output was 1.9628 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 190,500 tons [6]. - **Overseas Supply**: Overseas device operating rates and production continued to increase. Except for the MHTL2 and 3 devices in South America and the Brunei BMC device, which stopped for several days and the restart time is to be determined, the rest of the devices were mostly operating normally. From January to July, the cumulative domestic methanol imports were 6.4799 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.66%. The main reason was the gas restrictions in Iran in the first quarter, which led to a decrease in overseas supply. Since May, imports have increased significantly. In July, imports declined. In July and August, international methanol production was 4.62 million tons, the second - highest in the year. International demand was weak, and US sanctions on Indian chemical companies accelerated the flow of international supplies to China, resulting in a significant increase in domestic methanol imports. It is expected that imports in September will remain above 1.5 million tons. There are rumors that Iranian gas fields plan to conduct rotational inspections in October, and it is not clear whether gas restrictions will be advanced. If gas restrictions are advanced this year, the pressure brought by the increase in overseas supply will be significantly alleviated. On September 5, the overseas methanol device capacity utilization rate was 74.73%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21 percentage points, and the weekly output was 1.0901 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3000 tons [10]. 3. Demand Side - **MTO Devices**: The capacity utilization rate of MTO devices decreased slightly. The third - phase MTO device of Ningxia Baofeng stopped production, and the upstream methanol device was still operating and was also planned to be shut down for maintenance. Currently, methanol is mainly stored in the warehouse, having limited impact on the market. In the East China region, the load of Nanjing Chengzhi was slightly increased, and Zhejiang Xingxing may restart soon. The profit of MTO devices in the East China region has recovered, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work has increased, so the demand for methanol in the region is expected to increase. On September 5, the capacity utilization rate of MTO devices was 84.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.34 percentage points [12]. - **Traditional Downstream Devices**: The capacity utilization rates of most traditional downstream devices decreased. Currently, downstream demand has not improved significantly, and although device profits have recovered, most are still in the red. Downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. With the decrease in temperature, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has begun, and downstream demand is expected to improve marginally. However, according to statistics, the inventory of sample downstream manufacturers is at a relatively high level compared with the same period, which may limit the amount of downstream inventory replenishment [15]. 4. Inventory - Last week, the arrival volume of methanol at ports was 467,200 tons, higher than expected. Although downstream demand was acceptable, it was less than the increase in supply, and port inventories increased by 128,400 tons. Due to the price advantage of imported resources, some port supplies were diverted to surrounding provinces, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The planned arrival volume this week may still be over 400,000 tons, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The inventory of inland manufacturers also increased. Some maintenance projects in production areas have gradually resumed work, supply has increased, the sales of some manufacturers in the Northwest are average, and transportation is restricted to some extent, so inventory continues to accumulate. With the arrival of the peak season and the resumption of transportation, manufacturers may start to reduce inventory. On September 5, the total social inventory of methanol was 1.4277 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 128,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 253,300 tons. Among them, port inventory was 1.7687 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 190,800 tons; manufacturer inventory was 341,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 62,500 tons; downstream enterprise inventory was 158,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 18,700 tons [17][18]. 5. Cost Side - Recently, the profits of methanol devices have shown mixed trends. The theoretical profit of coal - based production in production areas has slightly narrowed, while the profit of coal - based projects in consumption areas has slightly expanded. The theoretical profits of coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based production have improved. Recently, coal prices have continued to decline. The port market is inactive, traders are more willing to sell, and downstream price - pressing is common. Power plants' own inventories are relatively safe, and they have no intention to replenish large - scale inventories. The activity in the pit - mouth market has decreased, and the middle and lower reaches are more wait - and - see, with low enthusiasm for hauling, and market prices are under pressure. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of 462 sample mines was 89.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage point, and the daily output was 537,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 500 tons. Coal mines that stopped production at the beginning of the month have gradually resumed, and coal mines that previously reduced or restricted production have gradually resumed work. On the demand side, the average national temperature has decreased, the daily consumption of power plants has declined, and most power plants' inventories are above the safety line, with low enthusiasm for procurement. In the future, the daily consumption of power plants will further decrease, and it is expected that there will be no large - scale centralized inventory replenishment. In terms of non - power use, the profits of coal - chemical products are considerable, and enterprises' operations are mostly maintained at a high level, with relatively active procurement. In terms of imports, domestic coal prices have declined, and with the decline in power plant consumption, end - users are more wait - and - see, and the procurement rhythm of imported coal has also slowed down. In summary, coal mines that previously reduced or restricted production have gradually resumed, the "peak - summer power consumption" period is basically over, the daily consumption of power plants is gradually declining, and current inventories are still above the safety line. The possibility of large - scale centralized procurement in the future is low, coal prices are unlikely to rise in the short term, and the cost support for methanol has weakened [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In August, the overall price of oil dropped significantly, with supply - side pressure outweighing the market's expectation of long - term macro - economic recovery. In the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum, with limited upside potential, while in the medium - to - long term, they remain under pressure [81]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Operation Strategy - Since August, the first - half decline has suppressed oil prices, resulting in a monthly decline. This month, oil prices are likely to remain under supply - side pressure and are unlikely to rebound significantly. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 450 - 520 yuan/barrel and adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. A bearish approach is advisable due to limited positive factors [13]. 2. Market Review - In August, supply - side pressure prevented a significant oil price rebound, and prices fluctuated at relatively low levels. Although some losses were recovered in the second half of the month, the recovery was limited despite high expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical instability [20]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Macroeconomic Factors - **Inflation and Core Prices**: Inflation persists, core prices are rising, and the quality of non - farm employment is deteriorating, which may not improve easily [24][27][30]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: The expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has decreased, the Israel - Hamas conflict in the Middle East may continue, and the negotiation between Iran and European countries has stalled, which may lead to continued problems in Iran's oil exports and support oil prices [34]. 3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production**: In July, OPEC+ increased production. Saudi Arabia and Russia both raised output, and production may continue to rise in August. Attention should be paid to compensatory production cuts in Iran and Iraq, and Venezuela's exports may be restricted. The US oil production has slightly recovered [37][41][49]. 3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Consumption Season**: The peak consumption season is ending. Gasoline production may gradually decrease, while diesel production is picking up. Manufacturing in China and the US remains sluggish, while that in Europe shows a slight recovery. The production of refined oil is shifting from gasoline to diesel [52][55][58]. 3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil**: The US crude oil inventory decreased in the week ending August 22 and 23, and the decline was in line with market expectations. The inventory may continue to fall in the short term [70]. - **Refined Oil**: The US gasoline inventory decreased, and the refined oil inventory had a large decline in the week ending August 23. Seasonal consumption led to inventory reduction, which may ease in mid - September [73]. 3.5 Spread Factors - In August, the cracking spread of North American gasoline and diesel was relatively stable. Diesel cracking slightly declined in the second half of the month, and gasoline was relatively strong. In the domestic market, as the travel season ends, refineries may shift to diesel production, which may support the cracking performance of fuel oil [77]. 4. Viewpoint Summary - In August, the center of oil prices moved down significantly. In the short term, the downward space of oil prices is limited due to the North American consumption season, but in the medium - to - long term, supply - side pressure will continue. Geopolitical factors will increase price volatility [81].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly due to the mitigation of off - season adverse factors, supply pressure, and limited inventory pressure [1][53][55]. - For steel, despite the pressure on macro - economic indicators in July, the end - demand may improve marginally, and supply may be under pressure, so steel futures prices may fluctuate strongly. For iron ore, although demand may be under marginal pressure, it still has resilience, and supply is marginally tight, so iron ore futures prices may also fluctuate strongly [2][3][53][55]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Supply - demand marginally loose and "anti - involution" policy with expected difference, steel and iron ore futures prices fluctuate downwards - Last week, the futures prices of steel and iron ore main contracts fluctuated downwards. The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore main contracts fell by 2.16%, 2.27%, and 0.77% respectively. The macro - economic data in July showed pressure on the economy, and the supply of steel and iron ore increased significantly, with off - season factors still affecting, resulting in a marginally loose supply - demand situation. Also, the "anti - involution" policy implementation is market - based, and the short - term implementation may fall through, suppressing the bullish sentiment [6]. II. Steel supply - demand marginally tight, iron ore supply under pressure and demand with resilience, the pressure of inventory accumulation for steel and iron ore may be limited (1) Steel: Supply under pressure and demand warming up, futures prices may fluctuate strongly - **Terminal demand may show resilience**: Although macro - economic indicators in July were under pressure, the end of the "severe flood season" may relieve adverse weather factors, and the implementation of policies and project starts may improve the terminal demand for steel, especially for building materials [8][10][53]. - **Supply may be under marginal pressure**: Although steel mills' profits are okay, the approaching 9.3 parade may lead to significant production - restriction pressure on steel mills in North China, and the new round of supply - side reform in the steel industry may also limit the supply [26][53]. - **Limited pressure of inventory accumulation**: Although the expectation of "one - size - fits - all" forced production reduction is reduced and the real demand is still under pressure, the demand - side policies and the resilience of terminal demand may limit the pressure of inventory accumulation for rebar and hot - rolled coil [38]. (2) Iron ore: Demand under marginal pressure but with resilience and limited inventory pressure, futures prices may fluctuate strongly - **Demand with marginal pressure but resilience**: The upcoming 9.3 parade and the new round of supply - side reform in the steel industry may put marginal pressure on iron ore demand. However, steel mills' profits are okay, and the expectation of "one - size - fits - all" forced production reduction is reduced, so the demand may still have resilience [43][44][55]. - **Limited pressure of supply tightness**: Although the arrival of foreign ore decreased last week, the foreign ore shipment may return to normal, and the new production capacity of foreign mines and overseas equity mines may increase, so the pressure of supply tightness may be limited [46][47]. - **Limited inventory accumulation**: Due to the potential production - restriction of steel mills, iron ore demand may be under marginal pressure. But considering the resilience of demand, the accumulation of port inventory may be limited [49][52][55]. III. Mitigation of off - season adverse factors, supply under pressure, and limited inventory pressure, steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly - **Steel**: The end - demand may improve marginally, and supply may be under pressure, so steel futures prices may fluctuate strongly. Steel producers and high - inventory traders are advised to speed up sales, while low - inventory traders and end - users can buy on dips or establish long hedging positions on the futures market. Investors can take short - term long positions on dips, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with stop - loss and take - profit [2][53]. - **Iron ore**: Although demand may be under marginal pressure, it still has resilience, and supply is marginally tight, so iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly. Steel mills and low - inventory traders can buy on dips or establish long hedging positions on the futures market, while high - inventory traders can speed up sales. Investors can trade within a range, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with stop - loss and take - profit [3][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The oil price fluctuated last week and rebounded slightly in the second half. Although it recorded its first increase in three weeks, the overall increase was relatively limited. In the current market situation, the long - term loosening trend on the supply side in the commodity attribute remains the core factor suppressing the oil price rebound. Although the recent consumption in the US shows resilience and inventory has decreased continuously, its support for the oil price is relatively limited. In terms of financial attributes, after the Jackson Hole meeting, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has almost reached its peak, which may lead to a gradual improvement in macro - economic pressure and open up the upward space for the oil price. Politically, after the US - Russia negotiations, the market's short - term expectation of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has decreased again, and overall political volatility may continue. Therefore, in the near term, the oil price may continue to fluctuate, with a possible short - term rebound but the overall amplitude may be relatively limited [67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price rebounded slightly in the second half, mainly affected by the Fed's dovish stance and the fruitless Russia - Ukraine negotiations. It is expected that the oil price will fluctuate this week, with a small upward potential. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [470 - 515] yuan/barrel. Operations should focus on short - term spreads, and short - selling at high prices can be cautiously considered. This week, attention should be paid to the speeches of Fed officials, US economic data, and geopolitical trends [13]. 3.2 Market Review - The oil price rebounded in the second half of last week, recording its first increase in three weeks. This was due to two factors: the market's interpretation of Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting as dovish, and the relatively fruitless cease - fire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Fed's Attitude and Rate - cut Expectations**: The minutes of the Fed's July monetary policy meeting showed that most officials believed the threat of persistent high inflation exceeded the risk of a weakening labor market. Although there were differences in opinions among some officials, the market's expectation of a rate cut in September remained as high as 75%. After the Jackson Hole meeting, the market interpreted Powell's speech as dovish, and the probability of a rate cut in September was close to 90% [25]. - **US Inflation**: US inflation persists, and the core inflation may rebound [28]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US - Russia - Ukraine talks last week did not lead to a cease - fire. Russia's demands were not accepted by Ukraine, and the market's expectation of a cease - fire became more pessimistic, causing the oil price to rebound slightly. In addition, the possible deterioration of US - Venezuela diplomatic relations may affect Venezuela's low - cost energy exports [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **Saudi Arabia and Russia's Production Increase**: Saudi Arabia and Russia continued to increase production. In July, OPEC +'s total production increased by 335,000 barrels per day compared to June [35]. - **Compensatory Production Cuts in Iran and Iraq**: Iran and Iraq carried out compensatory production cuts [40]. - **Stable Recovery of US Production**: US oil production remained stable and showed a recovery trend [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Slight Recovery in Consumption Expectations**: There was a slight recovery in consumption expectations [46]. - **Contraction in Manufacturing**: The manufacturing sectors in the US and China remained in a contraction state [49]. - **Change in Refined Oil Production Direction**: There was a change in the production direction of refined oil [55]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Limited Support from Crude Oil De - stocking**: US crude oil inventories decreased significantly last week, far exceeding market expectations. This was due to the high utilization rate of US refineries and a surge in exports, which weakened the impact of the growth in US shale oil production [57]. - **Gasoline Production Cut and Diesel Recovery**: US gasoline inventories continued to decline, while refined oil inventories increased. North American refineries were adjusting production policies to shift from prioritizing gasoline to increasing diesel production [61]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - The oil price may continue to fluctuate in the near term, with a possible short - term rebound but the overall amplitude may be relatively limited [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: Although adverse weather conditions such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall in many areas still occur frequently, the real - time terminal demand for steel may remain under pressure, and the inventory accumulation pressure of coils and rebar may continue. However, after the "severe flood period from late July to early August", with the start of large - scale "two major" projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Plant and the continuous implementation of "two new" policies, the terminal demand for steel may remain resilient, and steel futures prices may have downward support [1][41]. - Iron ore: Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will release a new round of steel industry stability - growth work plan, and the China Iron and Steel Association has proposed to strictly implement the deployment of crude steel production control, and there may be production restrictions for steel mills in North China near the September 3rd parade, the demand - side pressure on iron ore may gradually emerge, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation at iron ore ports. But due to the policy expectation difference in supply - side structural reform and the implementation of demand - side management policies, the replenishment demand of traders and terminal steel mills before the production restrictions in North China in late August may still be released, and the production enthusiasm of steel mills is still relatively high, so the demand for iron ore may remain resilient, and iron ore futures prices may have downward support [2][42]. Summary by Directory 1. Expected Boost but Weak Reality Dominates, Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices Rise and Then Fall - Last week, the futures prices of steel and iron ore main contracts showed a trend of rising and then falling. The main contracts of hot - rolled coils and iron ore performed slightly stronger, both rising 0.32% week - on - week, while the futures price of the rebar main contract fell 0.78% week - on - week. In the first two trading days of last week, policy expectations led to a strong - side oscillation of steel and iron ore futures prices. However, starting from Wednesday, the prices began to fall. One reason was the expected pressure on China's macro - economic data in July, and the actual data of investment, consumption, industry, and real estate were indeed under pressure. The other reason was the significant decline in the apparent demand for rebar and the continuous inventory accumulation of rebar and hot - rolled coils [4]. 2. Supply - Demand Marginally Loose but Terminal Demand Resilience May Gradually Appear, Steel and Iron Ore Inventory Accumulation Pressure May Be Limited Overall (1) Steel: The Window of Supply - Demand Mismatch in Loose Conditions Remains, but Terminal Demand Resilience May Gradually Appear, and Futures Prices May Have Downward Support - **Terminal Demand**: Last week, the consumption of rebar significantly declined to below the level of the same period last year, while the consumption of hot - rolled coils increased month - on - month and was higher than that of the same period last year. The impact of off - season adverse weather on the consumption of building materials such as rebar was more significant. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of investment, consumption, industry, and real estate indicators all declined. Although the year - on - year decline in new housing starts in the real estate sector continued to narrow slightly and the year - on - year growth rate of automobile sales increased, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment still widened, and the year - on - year growth rates of narrow - sense infrastructure and manufacturing investment also slowed significantly. This week, although the adverse weather still exists, the terminal demand for steel may remain resilient with the start of "two major" projects and the implementation of policies [9]. - **Supply**: Last week, the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased for the first time after continuous increases, and the profits of rebar blast furnaces, electric furnaces, and hot - rolled coils continued to decline. The capacity utilization rate of steel mill blast furnaces and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils remained basically stable. This week, the expected "one - size - fits - all" administrative production cuts have decreased, and steel production may still have room for release. However, with the upcoming new round of steel industry stability - growth plan and production control policies, as well as the possible production restrictions in North China near the September 3rd parade and off - season factors, the overall steel supply may be under pressure [18]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to accumulate. This week, although the terminal demand for steel shows resilience, the expected reduction of "one - size - fits - all" production cuts and the overall pressure on off - season real - time demand may lead to a continuation of the inventory accumulation pressure for coils and rebar [30]. (2) Iron Ore: Although the Expectation of Steel Mill Production Restrictions and Supply - Side Structural Reform Remains, the Demand Side May Have Resilience, and Futures Prices May Have Downward Support - **Demand**: Last week, the iron ore port clearance volume at 45 ports significantly increased to the highest level in recent years, and the port transactions were active. The daily iron ore consumption of steel mills and the average daily molten iron output increased slightly. This week, although there may be production restrictions for steel mills, the replenishment demand of traders and terminal steel mills before the production restrictions in North China in late August may still be released, and the production enthusiasm of steel mills is still high, so the demand for iron ore may remain resilient [34]. - **Supply**: Last week, the iron ore shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 242,000 tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by nearly 95,000 tons. This week, the iron ore shipment from overseas mines may transition from the off - season to normal, and new production capacity is expected to be released. The overall supply of iron ore may be relatively loose [35]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the iron ore inventory of steel mills increased significantly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation at iron ore ports, but the replenishment demand of steel mills may limit the degree of inventory accumulation [38]. 3. Supply - Demand Marginally Loose but the Implementation Effect of Demand - Side Management Policies May Gradually Appear, Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices May Have Downward Support - **Steel Operation Suggestions**: Steel producers and traders with high inventory levels can temporarily slow down the sales rhythm; traders with low inventory levels, downstream, and terminal procurement enterprises can appropriately speed up the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market. Investors are advised to adopt a range - trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying, paying attention to profit - taking and stop - loss [41]. - **Iron Ore Operation Suggestions**: Steel mills or traders with low inventory levels can appropriately speed up the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market; traders with high inventory levels can temporarily slow down the sales rhythm. Investors are advised to adopt a range - trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying, paying attention to profit - taking and stop - loss [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated widely. Despite a slight recovery during the week, the decline at the beginning and end of the week led to the lowest level in nearly three weeks, with the weekly line recording two consecutive weeks of decline. Considering the current market situation, the long - term expectation of a loose supply side in the commodity attribute will continue to pressure oil prices. Even though inventories have slightly decreased recently, it is difficult to support oil prices due to the relatively pessimistic summer demand outlook. In terms of financial attributes, Powell remains cautious about interest rate cuts, and Trump's tariff policy may turn more aggressive, maintaining overall pressure. Politically, geopolitical situations around the world have not significantly cooled down, but the possibility of escalation is also relatively small, remaining volatile. Therefore, in the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum and may continue to fluctuate weakly if there are no significant changes in various factors [63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely. Although there was a slight rebound during the week, the decline at the weekend erased most of the gains. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate widely this week. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [485 - 525] yuan/barrel, mainly engage in short - spread operations within the range, and consider short - selling on rallies. However, due to geopolitical and other factors, the volatility may increase, so it is not advisable to chase the decline excessively [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices generally showed a wide - range fluctuating trend. During the week, they were affected by long - term interest rate cut expectations, tariff negotiation changes, and geopolitical situations, showing a slight recovery. However, at the weekend, most of the gains were given back, resulting in the lowest level in nearly three weeks, and the weekly line recorded two consecutive weeks of decline [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Tariff Policy**: Trump plans to set a new "reciprocal tariff rate" system before August 1, with tariff rates ranging from 15% to 50%. Some countries will face a maximum tariff of 50%, and Japan and some EU countries have reached a 15% tariff agreement. This indicates that the Trump administration's tariff policy is becoming more aggressive, which may lead to a more pessimistic market expectation for the results on August 1 [25]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectation**: The market has a high expectation of an interest rate cut in September, which may have an impact on oil prices [28]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: In the Middle East, the US - Hamas cease - fire negotiation has not made substantial progress, and France's plan to recognize Palestine may ease the situation. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the third round of talks did not achieve substantial results, and the relationship between Russia and other countries remains uncertain. Iran and the US will participate in a new round of nuclear negotiations, leaving some room for the Iranian nuclear issue [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is expected to maintain the current production increase plan at the meeting on Monday. Eight member countries will increase their total daily production by 548,000 barrels starting from August. Also, there are concerns about restricted Russian oil exports, which may alleviate the long - term expectation of a loose supply side to some extent [36]. - **Russian and Iranian Oil Exports**: Attention should be paid to the changes in Russian and Iranian oil exports, which may affect the global oil supply [37]. - **US Oil Production**: US oil production has slightly decreased [40]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Consumption Expectation**: The consumption expectation continues to cool down [43]. - **Manufacturing Industry**: The manufacturing industry remains in a contraction state, which may reduce the demand for oil [46]. - **Refined Oil Production**: The production of refined oil has slightly slowed down [51]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil Inventory**: US crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending July 18, which provides limited support for oil prices under the long - term pressure of a loose supply side [53]. - **Gasoline Inventory**: The decline in US gasoline inventories in the week ending July 18 may support gasoline prices, which will be transmitted to the domestic refined oil market and support the performance of fuel cracking [57]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - In the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum. If there are no significant changes in various factors, they may continue to fluctuate weakly [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price was relatively weak last week, recording its first weekly decline in nearly two weeks, as the market's trading logic returned to the judgment of the commodity attributes of crude oil. In the long - term, the expectation of a loose supply side in the commodity attributes remains unchanged, which is the core factor weighing on oil prices. However, the improvement in summer demand on the consumption side may boost oil prices in the third quarter and support refined oil products. In terms of financial attributes, the market still has a relatively high expectation of an interest rate cut in September, and the short - term macro - economic atmosphere is difficult to improve. Politically, although there are no obvious signs of an escalation of conflicts, it is unlikely to cool down completely in the short term, and fluctuations will continue. Overall, the oil price may continue to fluctuate widely in the near future, and the center may decline under the influence of the loose supply expectation [66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price mainly fluctuated. Although there were fluctuations in the second half of the week, the market adjusted quickly, and the weekly line recorded its first decline since July. It is expected that the oil price will maintain a fluctuating trend this week with some room for correction. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [495 - 535] yuan/barrel. In operation, short - spread layout can be considered, and short positions can be cautiously taken at high prices, but beware of oil price fluctuations exceeding expectations due to geopolitical uncertainties [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the oil price fluctuated widely. The core driving factors were the long - term loose supply and the less - than - expected consumption recovery. Although the oil price rebounded on Friday due to the EU's new sanctions on Russian oil, the market digested it quickly over the weekend and returned to the previous trend [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomy - **Inflation increase meets expectations**: The latest US inflation data showed that the overall CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, and the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, meeting market expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, but the monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. The interest rate market still mainly anticipates an interest rate cut in September [25]. - **Increasing expectation of tariff cooling**: Trump said that the US may impose tariffs on imported drugs and semiconductors before August 1, and may reach "two or three" trade agreements by then, with the agreement with India being the most likely. For small economies without customized tax rates, a "slightly higher than 10%" standard tariff may be imposed, which may make the market more optimistic about the negotiations at the beginning of next month and stabilize market sentiment [28]. - **Geopolitical fluctuations remain subdued**: Trump expressed disappointment at Russia's refusal to cease fire and threatened to impose a 100% "secondary tariff" on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict does not end in 50 days. Russia did not show weakness. In the US - Iran negotiations, the US and E3 countries agreed to set the end of August as the de - facto deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. If an agreement cannot be reached, the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism will be activated. The continuous attacks between Israel and Syria may keep the geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - **OPEC+ production increase maintains pressure**: In June, OPEC+ daily oil production was 41.56 million barrels, an increase of 349,000 barrels compared with May, slightly lower than the required increase of 411,000 barrels per day due to some countries' compensatory production cuts. Kazakhstan's production still exceeded its quota. Market rumors that Saudi Arabia asked statistical agencies to lower the June report results may lead to a looser production expectation and suppress oil prices [36]. - **EU sanctions on Russia and uncertain Russian oil exports**: The EU's new sanctions on Russian oil may change Russian oil exports [40]. - **Slight decline in US production**: The US oil production has slightly decreased [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Cooling consumption expectation**: OPEC believes that the consumption growth in the second half of this year may be better than expected, while IEA believes that the supply - side growth will continue to pressure the market in the second half of the year, making it difficult for the summer consumption to effectively support oil prices [46]. - **Manufacturing in contraction**: The manufacturing industry in the US and China is in a contraction state, which may affect oil demand [50]. - **Slight slowdown in refined oil production**: The production of refined oil has slightly slowed down [54]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Crude oil destocking may support prices**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 11 was 839,000 barrels, against an expected - 1.637 million barrels and a previous value of 7.128 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory was - 3.859 million barrels, against an expected - 552,000 barrels and a previous value of 7.07 million barrels. The decline in US oil production and the increase in refinery production, along with the end of the 18 - week accumulation of the US strategic oil reserve, may support the WTI price [56]. - **Potential for refined oil inventory accumulation**: The US gasoline inventory for the week ending July 11 was 3.399 million barrels, against an expected - 952,000 barrels and a previous value of - 2.658 million barrels. The refined oil inventory was 4.173 million barrels, against an expected 199,000 barrels and a previous value of - 825,000 barrels. The increase in refinery production and the incomplete recovery of summer travel consumption led to the inventory accumulation. As consumption recovers, it may boost refined oil prices and there may be opportunities for long positions in refined oil cracking [60]. 3.4 View Summary - Recently, the oil price may fluctuate widely, and the center may decline under the influence of the loose supply expectation. The improvement in summer demand on the consumption side may support oil prices in the third quarter and refined oil products. The market still expects an interest rate cut in September, and geopolitical fluctuations will continue [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Last week, crude oil prices were generally strong, with a slight correction on Thursday but still posting good weekly gains, mainly influenced by the escalation of the Red Sea situation and the possibility of Russia's production increase falling short of expectations. Considering the current market situation, changes in the supply side will continue to be the main factor affecting oil prices. Although OPEC+ may end production increases in October, the 2.2 million barrels per day increase this year has basically been achieved, which will lead to a continuous supply - side surplus and put pressure on oil prices. The uncertainty of Russia's export level also adds to the pressure on the commodity attribute. In terms of financial attributes, market attention to US tariff policies has decreased, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September remains high, which may gradually ease the downward pressure on the macro - economy. Politically, there are new variables in the Red Sea situation and uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Overall, oil prices are likely to maintain a wide - range volatile trend before the supply - side uncertainties are resolved. If the geopolitical situation stabilizes or cools down, there is still room for a correction in oil prices [68]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Operation Ideas Last week, oil prices showed a generally strong and volatile trend, mainly affected by the Red Sea situation and Russia's export disruptions. It is expected that oil prices will maintain a wide - range volatile trend this week. The recommended price range is [510 - 535] yuan/barrel. There may be some room for correction if geopolitical factors cool down and there are no additional supply - side variables. It is recommended to focus on short - spread trading, consider shorting at high prices cautiously, or go long on the crack spread of downstream products [13]. 2. Market Review Last week, oil prices showed a generally strong and volatile trend. At the beginning of the week, due to the escalation of the Red Sea situation, market sentiment shifted rapidly, leading to a continuous increase in oil prices. In the second half of the week, the market's expectation of long - term consumption decreased, and inventory data accumulated excessively, causing a significant correction in oil prices on Thursday. However, over the weekend, concerns about possible disruptions to Russia's summer exports resurfaced, leading to another increase. Finally, the weekly lines of the three major crude oil futures all recorded two consecutive weeks of gains [20]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Tariff Impact Decreasing**: Trump extended the tariff negotiation deadline and the effective date of reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1 and unilaterally set tariffs ranging from 20% - 50% for over 20 countries. This further postponed the US tariff negotiation deadline, reducing market attention to this factor and the impact on macro - economic fluctuations [24]. - **Divergence in Rate - cut Expectations**: The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that some officials believed a rate cut in July was reasonable due to the labor market, while others thought tariffs would cause long - term inflation problems. Trump criticized Powell for inaction on rate cuts, and the market generally expects a rate cut in September [27]. - **Geopolitical Tensions Rising Again**: At the beginning of last week, two merchant ships were attacked by the Houthi armed forces in the Red Sea within 48 hours, raising concerns about an expansion of the attack targets. In addition, the US's stance on providing weapons to Ukraine has changed, adding uncertainties to the Russia - Ukraine conflict [30]. 3.2 Supply - side Factors - **Attention to OPEC Monthly Report Data**: OPEC+ production data shows that the total production of OPEC+ increased by 180,000 barrels per day from April to May [33]. - **Possible Suspension of OPEC+ Production Restoration**: OPEC+ is discussing suspending further production increases from October after achieving about 2.2 million barrels per day of supply restoration in September. This may lead to a long - term supply surplus and put pressure on oil prices [34]. - **Uncertainty in Russia's Exports**: IEA said Russia's exports may face obstacles, as its June data shows that the export volumes of crude oil and refined oil are at abnormally low levels in the past five years, which may affect the market [38]. - **Iraq's Compensatory Production Cuts**: No specific analysis of the impact is provided in the text. - **Stable US Production**: The US crude oil production has remained stable. 3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Slight Cooling of Consumption Expectations**: The market's expectation of long - term consumption has decreased. - **Manufacturing in Contraction**: The manufacturing PMIs in the US and China show that the manufacturing industry is in a contraction state. - **Slight Slowdown in Refined Oil Production**: The production of refined oil has slowed down to some extent. 3.4 Inventory - related Factors - **Crude Oil Inventory Build - up Pressuring Oil Prices**: US API and EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 4 both increased significantly more than expected, mainly due to a sharp decrease in crude oil processing volume and a surge in imports from Latin America. However, summer consumption may boost oil consumption and reduce the long - term impact of this inventory build - up [58]. - **Refined Oil Inventory Drawdown Supporting Crack Spreads**: US gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased more than expected in the week ending July 4, mainly due to increased consumption during the Independence Day holiday and increased exports with reduced refinery processing. This may lead to a further decrease in refined oil inventories and support crack spreads [62]. 4. Viewpoint Summary Overall, before the supply - side uncertainties are resolved, oil prices are likely to maintain a wide - range volatile trend. If the geopolitical situation stabilizes or cools down, there is still room for a correction in oil prices [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price is expected to continue a wide - range volatile trend and may struggle to rebound significantly with the expectation of a looser supply side. It is recommended to keep an eye on the latest minutes of the Fed's monetary policy meeting and the monthly reports of major institutions [65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price showed a wide - range volatile trend and returned to a weaker state in the second half. This week, it may still operate with a weak and volatile trend, lacking clear directional momentum. The recommended price range to watch is 480 - 510 yuan/barrel. Short - spread operations are advisable, and short positions can be cautiously established on price increases. Attention should also be paid to the monthly reports released by major institutions over the weekend [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the oil price had a wide - range volatile movement. It briefly rose on Wednesday due to the unexpected decline in ADP data and the increased market expectation of interest rate cuts. However, after the release of non - farm payroll data, it quickly gave back the gains. In the second half of the week, the market focused on OPEC+ production increases, leading to a continuous weakening of the oil price [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomics - **Non - farm payrolls suppress interest rate cut expectations**: The US June ADP employment number was - 33,000, far lower than the expected 95,000, which led to a surge in market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. But the non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, better than expected. The market abandoned the expectation of a July rate cut, and the expectation of a September rate cut dropped to 80% [24]. - **Uncertainty in US tariffs**: President Trump announced on Friday that he would send letters to trading partners to set unilateral tariff rates, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%, higher than the previous proposed 50%. Negotiations with major trading partners have reached a deadlock, which may make the global economic situation more severe [26]. - **Geopolitical tensions ease**: The US announced a partial suspension of weapon supplies to Ukraine, easing the intensity of the Russia - Ukraine conflict to some extent. However, the Trump - Putin call was ineffective, and there is still uncertainty in the Russia - Ukraine situation. The US plans to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran, which may reduce the market's perception of Middle - East geopolitical volatility [30]. 3.3.2 Supply - **OPEC achieved production increase in May**: The total production of OPEC+ increased by 180,000 barrels per day from April to May. Saudi Arabia, Libya, and the UAE had notable production increases, while Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela had production decreases [33]. - **OPEC+ confirms continued production increase**: There are market rumors that OPEC+ is discussing an additional production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in August. If implemented, it will further increase supply - side pressure. However, the market has become accustomed to OPEC+ production increases, and the production changes in the OPEC monthly report in mid - month are crucial [34]. - **Saudi Arabia's production increases**: Saudi Arabia's oil production has shown an upward trend [38]. - **Iraq's compensatory production cuts**: Iraq has carried out compensatory production cuts [40]. - **US production remains stable**: The US oil production has maintained a relatively stable level [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Slight improvement in summer demand expectations**: There are signs of a slight improvement in the expected oil demand in summer [45]. - **Manufacturing remains in contraction**: The manufacturing PMIs in the US and China indicate that the manufacturing sector is still in a contraction state [48]. - **Slight slowdown in refined oil production**: The production of refined oil has shown a slight slowdown [53]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Crude oil inventory build - up suppresses oil price performance**: The US API and EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased in the week ending June 28, mainly due to a significant increase in net imports. This eases the previous expectation of low inventory and may increase supply - side pressure [55]. - **Differentiated consumption of refined oil remains weak**: In the week ending June 28, US gasoline inventory increased, mainly due to increased refinery production and weak summer consumption. Refined oil inventory decreased due to increased industrial and transportation demand and increased diesel net exports [59]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - The supply - side changes in the commodity attribute of crude oil are the core factor affecting future oil prices. If OPEC+ production increases and summer consumption does not improve significantly, the oil price may not improve. The non - farm payroll data has suppressed the short - term interest rate cut expectation, increasing macro - economic pressure. Geopolitical conflicts have eased, reducing the impact on oil prices. Overall, the oil price may continue to be volatile and difficult to rebound significantly [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices dropped significantly, with international oil prices falling 12% weekly, fully reversing the previous geopolitical risk premium. The market's focus may shift back to OPEC+ led production increases, which could lead to long - term expectations of a supply - side surplus and put pressure on oil prices. The increasing expectation of a fourth - quarter interest rate cut will relieve some macro - economic downward pressure but may not boost oil prices effectively in the short term. The cease - fire in the Israel - Iran conflict has eliminated the risk premium, and it's difficult for it to boost oil prices again. Overall, oil prices are likely to return to pre - conflict levels and remain volatile with limited chances of a significant rebound [18][65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices rapidly reversed the previous risk premium due to the cooling of geopolitical factors, resulting in a significant decline. This week, the market may calm down and return to trading the logic of a supply - side surplus. Prices are unlikely to rebound significantly. It is recommended to focus on the range of 470 - 495 yuan/barrel, mainly engage in short - spread trading, and cautiously short at high prices. Also, pay attention to the changes in the US labor market data in June, manufacturing performance, and subsequent OPEC+ production increase news [12]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices dropped significantly at the beginning of the week due to the end of the Israel - Iran conflict. The market quickly reversed a large amount of the previous risk premium, causing oil prices to plunge. Then, the trading logic returned to the judgment of crude oil fundamentals and macro - financial attributes. With the expectation of a looser supply - side in the long term, oil prices gradually declined. International oil prices fell 12% last week, returning to the level before the Middle East geopolitical conflict [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - aspects - **Powell maintains a hawkish view**: Fed Chairman Powell attended the semi - annual monetary policy hearings in the Senate and the House of Representatives last week, reiterating that he won't cut interest rates rashly before the economic data is clear. He emphasized that the current policy still "depends on data" and hasn't decided whether to cut rates in July. The data from June to August is crucial, and the impact of tariff increases on inflation needs to be observed. The uncertainty of US tariff policies may cause fluctuations in the market's expectation of a July rate cut [23]. - **US economic data fluctuates**: The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in May slightly exceeded expectations, reaching 2.7%, the highest since February 2025. However, personal spending decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, the largest decline since the beginning of the year. These two data indicate the pressure of tariff policies on economic growth. Although the economic data doesn't fully support the market's pricing of a rate cut, some Fed officials have publicly supported it, which may influence the market's expectations [26]. - **Geopolitical situation cools down**: Iran and Israel ended a 12 - day conflict and reached a cease - fire agreement last week. Although there were still attacks after the cease - fire news, the fighting has basically stopped. Trump said the cease - fire is progressing smoothly but didn't rule out the possibility of a resurgence of the conflict. He also hinted at adjusting sanctions on Iran. The geopolitical factor's impact on oil prices has basically cooled down [30]. 3.3.2 Supply - aspects - **OPEC achieved production increase in May**: OPEC's total production in May was 27,022 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 183 thousand barrels per day compared to April. OPEC+ total production was 41,230 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 180 thousand barrels per day compared to April [33]. - **OPEC+ may increase production again**: OPEC+ has three sets of production - cut measures. Two of them have been extended to the end of 2026, and the goal of this round of production increase is to withdraw the additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2026. So far, nearly 60% of the 2.2 million barrels per day production restoration target has been completed, which may lead to long - term concerns about a global oil supply surplus and put pressure on oil prices [34]. - **Saudi Arabia's production increased**: No specific increase data was provided, but it is mentioned that Saudi Arabia's production has increased [37]. - **Iraq compensates for production cuts**: No specific compensation data was provided [40]. - **US production remains stable**: No specific production data was provided, but it is mentioned that US production remains stable [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - aspects - **Summer demand shows slight improvement**: No specific improvement data was provided [45]. - **Pay attention to this week's manufacturing performance**: No specific performance data was provided [48]. - **Refined oil production slows down slightly**: No specific slow - down data was provided [53]. 3.3.4 Inventory - aspects - **Crude oil inventory decreases and consumption recovers**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 20 was - 4.277 million barrels, compared with an expected - 0.183 million barrels and a previous value of - 10.133 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory for the same week was - 5.836 million barrels, compared with an expected - 0.797 million barrels and a previous value of - 11.473 million barrels. This is the fifth consecutive week of decline, mainly due to the low net import of US crude oil and the increase in the refining level of downstream factories, which may support oil prices in summer [55]. - **Refined oil inventory decreases and supports prices**: The US gasoline inventory for the week ending June 20 was - 2.075 million barrels, compared with an expected 0.381 million barrels and a previous value of 0.209 million barrels. The refined oil inventory was - 4.066 million barrels, compared with an expected 0.41 million barrels and a previous value of 0.514 million barrels. The significant decline in the inventory of the two major refined oils indicates the recovery of fuel consumption in North America. With the expectation of the subsequent consumption peak season, it's difficult for oil prices to decline further in summer [59]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Last week, crude oil prices dropped significantly, and international oil prices fell 12% weekly, fully reversing the previous geopolitical risk premium. The market may focus on OPEC+ production increases, leading to long - term supply - side surplus expectations and putting pressure on oil prices. The increasing expectation of a fourth - quarter interest rate cut will relieve some macro - economic downward pressure but may not boost oil prices effectively in the short term. The cease - fire in the Israel - Iran conflict has eliminated the risk premium, and it's difficult for it to boost oil prices again. Overall, oil prices are likely to return to pre - conflict levels and remain volatile with limited chances of a significant rebound [18][65].