1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price was relatively weak last week, recording its first weekly decline in nearly two weeks, as the market's trading logic returned to the judgment of the commodity attributes of crude oil. In the long - term, the expectation of a loose supply side in the commodity attributes remains unchanged, which is the core factor weighing on oil prices. However, the improvement in summer demand on the consumption side may boost oil prices in the third quarter and support refined oil products. In terms of financial attributes, the market still has a relatively high expectation of an interest rate cut in September, and the short - term macro - economic atmosphere is difficult to improve. Politically, although there are no obvious signs of an escalation of conflicts, it is unlikely to cool down completely in the short term, and fluctuations will continue. Overall, the oil price may continue to fluctuate widely in the near future, and the center may decline under the influence of the loose supply expectation [66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price mainly fluctuated. Although there were fluctuations in the second half of the week, the market adjusted quickly, and the weekly line recorded its first decline since July. It is expected that the oil price will maintain a fluctuating trend this week with some room for correction. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [495 - 535] yuan/barrel. In operation, short - spread layout can be considered, and short positions can be cautiously taken at high prices, but beware of oil price fluctuations exceeding expectations due to geopolitical uncertainties [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the oil price fluctuated widely. The core driving factors were the long - term loose supply and the less - than - expected consumption recovery. Although the oil price rebounded on Friday due to the EU's new sanctions on Russian oil, the market digested it quickly over the weekend and returned to the previous trend [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomy - **Inflation increase meets expectations**: The latest US inflation data showed that the overall CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, and the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, meeting market expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, but the monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. The interest rate market still mainly anticipates an interest rate cut in September [25]. - **Increasing expectation of tariff cooling**: Trump said that the US may impose tariffs on imported drugs and semiconductors before August 1, and may reach "two or three" trade agreements by then, with the agreement with India being the most likely. For small economies without customized tax rates, a "slightly higher than 10%" standard tariff may be imposed, which may make the market more optimistic about the negotiations at the beginning of next month and stabilize market sentiment [28]. - **Geopolitical fluctuations remain subdued**: Trump expressed disappointment at Russia's refusal to cease fire and threatened to impose a 100% "secondary tariff" on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict does not end in 50 days. Russia did not show weakness. In the US - Iran negotiations, the US and E3 countries agreed to set the end of August as the de - facto deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. If an agreement cannot be reached, the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism will be activated. The continuous attacks between Israel and Syria may keep the geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - **OPEC+ production increase maintains pressure**: In June, OPEC+ daily oil production was 41.56 million barrels, an increase of 349,000 barrels compared with May, slightly lower than the required increase of 411,000 barrels per day due to some countries' compensatory production cuts. Kazakhstan's production still exceeded its quota. Market rumors that Saudi Arabia asked statistical agencies to lower the June report results may lead to a looser production expectation and suppress oil prices [36]. - **EU sanctions on Russia and uncertain Russian oil exports**: The EU's new sanctions on Russian oil may change Russian oil exports [40]. - **Slight decline in US production**: The US oil production has slightly decreased [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Cooling consumption expectation**: OPEC believes that the consumption growth in the second half of this year may be better than expected, while IEA believes that the supply - side growth will continue to pressure the market in the second half of the year, making it difficult for the summer consumption to effectively support oil prices [46]. - **Manufacturing in contraction**: The manufacturing industry in the US and China is in a contraction state, which may affect oil demand [50]. - **Slight slowdown in refined oil production**: The production of refined oil has slightly slowed down [54]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Crude oil destocking may support prices**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 11 was 839,000 barrels, against an expected - 1.637 million barrels and a previous value of 7.128 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory was - 3.859 million barrels, against an expected - 552,000 barrels and a previous value of 7.07 million barrels. The decline in US oil production and the increase in refinery production, along with the end of the 18 - week accumulation of the US strategic oil reserve, may support the WTI price [56]. - **Potential for refined oil inventory accumulation**: The US gasoline inventory for the week ending July 11 was 3.399 million barrels, against an expected - 952,000 barrels and a previous value of - 2.658 million barrels. The refined oil inventory was 4.173 million barrels, against an expected 199,000 barrels and a previous value of - 825,000 barrels. The increase in refinery production and the incomplete recovery of summer travel consumption led to the inventory accumulation. As consumption recovers, it may boost refined oil prices and there may be opportunities for long positions in refined oil cracking [60]. 3.4 View Summary - Recently, the oil price may fluctuate widely, and the center may decline under the influence of the loose supply expectation. The improvement in summer demand on the consumption side may support oil prices in the third quarter and refined oil products. The market still expects an interest rate cut in September, and geopolitical fluctuations will continue [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Last week, crude oil prices were generally strong, with a slight correction on Thursday but still posting good weekly gains, mainly influenced by the escalation of the Red Sea situation and the possibility of Russia's production increase falling short of expectations. Considering the current market situation, changes in the supply side will continue to be the main factor affecting oil prices. Although OPEC+ may end production increases in October, the 2.2 million barrels per day increase this year has basically been achieved, which will lead to a continuous supply - side surplus and put pressure on oil prices. The uncertainty of Russia's export level also adds to the pressure on the commodity attribute. In terms of financial attributes, market attention to US tariff policies has decreased, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September remains high, which may gradually ease the downward pressure on the macro - economy. Politically, there are new variables in the Red Sea situation and uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Overall, oil prices are likely to maintain a wide - range volatile trend before the supply - side uncertainties are resolved. If the geopolitical situation stabilizes or cools down, there is still room for a correction in oil prices [68]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Operation Ideas Last week, oil prices showed a generally strong and volatile trend, mainly affected by the Red Sea situation and Russia's export disruptions. It is expected that oil prices will maintain a wide - range volatile trend this week. The recommended price range is [510 - 535] yuan/barrel. There may be some room for correction if geopolitical factors cool down and there are no additional supply - side variables. It is recommended to focus on short - spread trading, consider shorting at high prices cautiously, or go long on the crack spread of downstream products [13]. 2. Market Review Last week, oil prices showed a generally strong and volatile trend. At the beginning of the week, due to the escalation of the Red Sea situation, market sentiment shifted rapidly, leading to a continuous increase in oil prices. In the second half of the week, the market's expectation of long - term consumption decreased, and inventory data accumulated excessively, causing a significant correction in oil prices on Thursday. However, over the weekend, concerns about possible disruptions to Russia's summer exports resurfaced, leading to another increase. Finally, the weekly lines of the three major crude oil futures all recorded two consecutive weeks of gains [20]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Tariff Impact Decreasing**: Trump extended the tariff negotiation deadline and the effective date of reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1 and unilaterally set tariffs ranging from 20% - 50% for over 20 countries. This further postponed the US tariff negotiation deadline, reducing market attention to this factor and the impact on macro - economic fluctuations [24]. - **Divergence in Rate - cut Expectations**: The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that some officials believed a rate cut in July was reasonable due to the labor market, while others thought tariffs would cause long - term inflation problems. Trump criticized Powell for inaction on rate cuts, and the market generally expects a rate cut in September [27]. - **Geopolitical Tensions Rising Again**: At the beginning of last week, two merchant ships were attacked by the Houthi armed forces in the Red Sea within 48 hours, raising concerns about an expansion of the attack targets. In addition, the US's stance on providing weapons to Ukraine has changed, adding uncertainties to the Russia - Ukraine conflict [30]. 3.2 Supply - side Factors - **Attention to OPEC Monthly Report Data**: OPEC+ production data shows that the total production of OPEC+ increased by 180,000 barrels per day from April to May [33]. - **Possible Suspension of OPEC+ Production Restoration**: OPEC+ is discussing suspending further production increases from October after achieving about 2.2 million barrels per day of supply restoration in September. This may lead to a long - term supply surplus and put pressure on oil prices [34]. - **Uncertainty in Russia's Exports**: IEA said Russia's exports may face obstacles, as its June data shows that the export volumes of crude oil and refined oil are at abnormally low levels in the past five years, which may affect the market [38]. - **Iraq's Compensatory Production Cuts**: No specific analysis of the impact is provided in the text. - **Stable US Production**: The US crude oil production has remained stable. 3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Slight Cooling of Consumption Expectations**: The market's expectation of long - term consumption has decreased. - **Manufacturing in Contraction**: The manufacturing PMIs in the US and China show that the manufacturing industry is in a contraction state. - **Slight Slowdown in Refined Oil Production**: The production of refined oil has slowed down to some extent. 3.4 Inventory - related Factors - **Crude Oil Inventory Build - up Pressuring Oil Prices**: US API and EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 4 both increased significantly more than expected, mainly due to a sharp decrease in crude oil processing volume and a surge in imports from Latin America. However, summer consumption may boost oil consumption and reduce the long - term impact of this inventory build - up [58]. - **Refined Oil Inventory Drawdown Supporting Crack Spreads**: US gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased more than expected in the week ending July 4, mainly due to increased consumption during the Independence Day holiday and increased exports with reduced refinery processing. This may lead to a further decrease in refined oil inventories and support crack spreads [62]. 4. Viewpoint Summary Overall, before the supply - side uncertainties are resolved, oil prices are likely to maintain a wide - range volatile trend. If the geopolitical situation stabilizes or cools down, there is still room for a correction in oil prices [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price is expected to continue a wide - range volatile trend and may struggle to rebound significantly with the expectation of a looser supply side. It is recommended to keep an eye on the latest minutes of the Fed's monetary policy meeting and the monthly reports of major institutions [65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price showed a wide - range volatile trend and returned to a weaker state in the second half. This week, it may still operate with a weak and volatile trend, lacking clear directional momentum. The recommended price range to watch is 480 - 510 yuan/barrel. Short - spread operations are advisable, and short positions can be cautiously established on price increases. Attention should also be paid to the monthly reports released by major institutions over the weekend [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the oil price had a wide - range volatile movement. It briefly rose on Wednesday due to the unexpected decline in ADP data and the increased market expectation of interest rate cuts. However, after the release of non - farm payroll data, it quickly gave back the gains. In the second half of the week, the market focused on OPEC+ production increases, leading to a continuous weakening of the oil price [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomics - **Non - farm payrolls suppress interest rate cut expectations**: The US June ADP employment number was - 33,000, far lower than the expected 95,000, which led to a surge in market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. But the non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, better than expected. The market abandoned the expectation of a July rate cut, and the expectation of a September rate cut dropped to 80% [24]. - **Uncertainty in US tariffs**: President Trump announced on Friday that he would send letters to trading partners to set unilateral tariff rates, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%, higher than the previous proposed 50%. Negotiations with major trading partners have reached a deadlock, which may make the global economic situation more severe [26]. - **Geopolitical tensions ease**: The US announced a partial suspension of weapon supplies to Ukraine, easing the intensity of the Russia - Ukraine conflict to some extent. However, the Trump - Putin call was ineffective, and there is still uncertainty in the Russia - Ukraine situation. The US plans to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran, which may reduce the market's perception of Middle - East geopolitical volatility [30]. 3.3.2 Supply - **OPEC achieved production increase in May**: The total production of OPEC+ increased by 180,000 barrels per day from April to May. Saudi Arabia, Libya, and the UAE had notable production increases, while Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela had production decreases [33]. - **OPEC+ confirms continued production increase**: There are market rumors that OPEC+ is discussing an additional production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in August. If implemented, it will further increase supply - side pressure. However, the market has become accustomed to OPEC+ production increases, and the production changes in the OPEC monthly report in mid - month are crucial [34]. - **Saudi Arabia's production increases**: Saudi Arabia's oil production has shown an upward trend [38]. - **Iraq's compensatory production cuts**: Iraq has carried out compensatory production cuts [40]. - **US production remains stable**: The US oil production has maintained a relatively stable level [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Slight improvement in summer demand expectations**: There are signs of a slight improvement in the expected oil demand in summer [45]. - **Manufacturing remains in contraction**: The manufacturing PMIs in the US and China indicate that the manufacturing sector is still in a contraction state [48]. - **Slight slowdown in refined oil production**: The production of refined oil has shown a slight slowdown [53]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Crude oil inventory build - up suppresses oil price performance**: The US API and EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased in the week ending June 28, mainly due to a significant increase in net imports. This eases the previous expectation of low inventory and may increase supply - side pressure [55]. - **Differentiated consumption of refined oil remains weak**: In the week ending June 28, US gasoline inventory increased, mainly due to increased refinery production and weak summer consumption. Refined oil inventory decreased due to increased industrial and transportation demand and increased diesel net exports [59]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - The supply - side changes in the commodity attribute of crude oil are the core factor affecting future oil prices. If OPEC+ production increases and summer consumption does not improve significantly, the oil price may not improve. The non - farm payroll data has suppressed the short - term interest rate cut expectation, increasing macro - economic pressure. Geopolitical conflicts have eased, reducing the impact on oil prices. Overall, the oil price may continue to be volatile and difficult to rebound significantly [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices dropped significantly, with international oil prices falling 12% weekly, fully reversing the previous geopolitical risk premium. The market's focus may shift back to OPEC+ led production increases, which could lead to long - term expectations of a supply - side surplus and put pressure on oil prices. The increasing expectation of a fourth - quarter interest rate cut will relieve some macro - economic downward pressure but may not boost oil prices effectively in the short term. The cease - fire in the Israel - Iran conflict has eliminated the risk premium, and it's difficult for it to boost oil prices again. Overall, oil prices are likely to return to pre - conflict levels and remain volatile with limited chances of a significant rebound [18][65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices rapidly reversed the previous risk premium due to the cooling of geopolitical factors, resulting in a significant decline. This week, the market may calm down and return to trading the logic of a supply - side surplus. Prices are unlikely to rebound significantly. It is recommended to focus on the range of 470 - 495 yuan/barrel, mainly engage in short - spread trading, and cautiously short at high prices. Also, pay attention to the changes in the US labor market data in June, manufacturing performance, and subsequent OPEC+ production increase news [12]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices dropped significantly at the beginning of the week due to the end of the Israel - Iran conflict. The market quickly reversed a large amount of the previous risk premium, causing oil prices to plunge. Then, the trading logic returned to the judgment of crude oil fundamentals and macro - financial attributes. With the expectation of a looser supply - side in the long term, oil prices gradually declined. International oil prices fell 12% last week, returning to the level before the Middle East geopolitical conflict [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - aspects - **Powell maintains a hawkish view**: Fed Chairman Powell attended the semi - annual monetary policy hearings in the Senate and the House of Representatives last week, reiterating that he won't cut interest rates rashly before the economic data is clear. He emphasized that the current policy still "depends on data" and hasn't decided whether to cut rates in July. The data from June to August is crucial, and the impact of tariff increases on inflation needs to be observed. The uncertainty of US tariff policies may cause fluctuations in the market's expectation of a July rate cut [23]. - **US economic data fluctuates**: The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in May slightly exceeded expectations, reaching 2.7%, the highest since February 2025. However, personal spending decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, the largest decline since the beginning of the year. These two data indicate the pressure of tariff policies on economic growth. Although the economic data doesn't fully support the market's pricing of a rate cut, some Fed officials have publicly supported it, which may influence the market's expectations [26]. - **Geopolitical situation cools down**: Iran and Israel ended a 12 - day conflict and reached a cease - fire agreement last week. Although there were still attacks after the cease - fire news, the fighting has basically stopped. Trump said the cease - fire is progressing smoothly but didn't rule out the possibility of a resurgence of the conflict. He also hinted at adjusting sanctions on Iran. The geopolitical factor's impact on oil prices has basically cooled down [30]. 3.3.2 Supply - aspects - **OPEC achieved production increase in May**: OPEC's total production in May was 27,022 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 183 thousand barrels per day compared to April. OPEC+ total production was 41,230 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 180 thousand barrels per day compared to April [33]. - **OPEC+ may increase production again**: OPEC+ has three sets of production - cut measures. Two of them have been extended to the end of 2026, and the goal of this round of production increase is to withdraw the additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2026. So far, nearly 60% of the 2.2 million barrels per day production restoration target has been completed, which may lead to long - term concerns about a global oil supply surplus and put pressure on oil prices [34]. - **Saudi Arabia's production increased**: No specific increase data was provided, but it is mentioned that Saudi Arabia's production has increased [37]. - **Iraq compensates for production cuts**: No specific compensation data was provided [40]. - **US production remains stable**: No specific production data was provided, but it is mentioned that US production remains stable [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - aspects - **Summer demand shows slight improvement**: No specific improvement data was provided [45]. - **Pay attention to this week's manufacturing performance**: No specific performance data was provided [48]. - **Refined oil production slows down slightly**: No specific slow - down data was provided [53]. 3.3.4 Inventory - aspects - **Crude oil inventory decreases and consumption recovers**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 20 was - 4.277 million barrels, compared with an expected - 0.183 million barrels and a previous value of - 10.133 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory for the same week was - 5.836 million barrels, compared with an expected - 0.797 million barrels and a previous value of - 11.473 million barrels. This is the fifth consecutive week of decline, mainly due to the low net import of US crude oil and the increase in the refining level of downstream factories, which may support oil prices in summer [55]. - **Refined oil inventory decreases and supports prices**: The US gasoline inventory for the week ending June 20 was - 2.075 million barrels, compared with an expected 0.381 million barrels and a previous value of 0.209 million barrels. The refined oil inventory was - 4.066 million barrels, compared with an expected 0.41 million barrels and a previous value of 0.514 million barrels. The significant decline in the inventory of the two major refined oils indicates the recovery of fuel consumption in North America. With the expectation of the subsequent consumption peak season, it's difficult for oil prices to decline further in summer [59]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Last week, crude oil prices dropped significantly, and international oil prices fell 12% weekly, fully reversing the previous geopolitical risk premium. The market may focus on OPEC+ production increases, leading to long - term supply - side surplus expectations and putting pressure on oil prices. The increasing expectation of a fourth - quarter interest rate cut will relieve some macro - economic downward pressure but may not boost oil prices effectively in the short term. The cease - fire in the Israel - Iran conflict has eliminated the risk premium, and it's difficult for it to boost oil prices again. Overall, oil prices are likely to return to pre - conflict levels and remain volatile with limited chances of a significant rebound [18][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent oil price may continue to show high - volatility trends under the influence of highly uncertain geopolitical factors, and it is difficult to have an obvious trend. It is recommended to take a bullish approach in operation, but beware of the risk of a rapid short - term correction due to geopolitical cooling [12][66]. Summary by Directory 1. Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price was affected by geopolitical factors and reached new highs since February. It is expected that political factors will remain the core support for the oil price this week, with some upward potential. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish approach for the domestic energy sector, but beware of short - term rapid oil price corrections due to geopolitical cooling [12]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the overall oil price was strong, mainly affected by the Iran - Israel conflict in the Middle East. Although the market briefly declined due to the "US - Iran call" news over the weekend, subsequent events such as the US joining the action against Iran and Iran's tough stance boosted the oil price again [18]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Macro - aspects - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in the June meeting, which was in line with market expectations. The semi - annual monetary policy report also reiterated "wait - and - see before cutting interest rates", suppressing the short - term interest rate cut expectations [23]. - There is uncertainty about the successor to the Fed Chairman. Trump's criticism of Powell may affect subsequent Fed decisions and market expectations [26]. - The Iran - Israel conflict continued to escalate last week. Israel aimed to "eliminate Khamenei", and Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US also launched attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, making it difficult for the conflict to cool down in the short term and keeping the oil price volatile [30]. 3.2 Supply - aspects - In May, OPEC achieved a production increase of 183,000 barrels per day, and OPEC + increased production by 180,000 barrels per day in total [33]. - Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. If the war escalates, it may cut off oil transportation through the strait, affecting about 22 million barrels of daily global oil transportation, which would impact the global supply - demand pattern [34]. - Saudi Arabia's oil production increased, while Iraq compensated for production cuts, and the US production remained stable [33][41][44]. 3.3 Demand - aspects - There is a slight improvement in summer demand expectations, but the manufacturing industries in China and the US continue to contract. However, the production of refined oil products continues to pick up [47][50][56]. 3.4 Inventory - aspects - US crude oil inventories from June 5 - 13 showed a significant decline, with API inventories dropping by 10.133 million barrels and EIA inventories dropping by 11.473 million barrels, which may support the WTI price [58]. - US refined oil inventories continued to accumulate. Gasoline and refined oil inventories increased last week, which may lead to a weakening of gasoline and diesel prices and a potential narrowing of the crack spread [61]. 4. Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the oil price was strong, though the weekly gain was limited over the weekend. The supply - side uncertainty in the commodity attribute, the Fed's interest rate decision in the financial attribute, and the high uncertainty of the Iran - Israel conflict in the political attribute all affect the oil price. Overall, the oil price may be highly volatile, and a bullish approach is recommended with caution for short - term corrections [66].

Report Overview - The report is titled "Chang'an Research - Methanol Weekly Report", dated June 23, 2025, focusing on the methanol market [1][2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core View - Due to the unresolved Middle - East geopolitical conflict, methanol prices continue to rise. Iranian methanol plants are shut down, increasing import reduction expectations and strengthening the basis in coastal areas. The rise in crude oil prices also has a positive feedback on methanol prices. Domestically, supply is increasing, while demand is stable with limited growth. The short - term market trend depends on the geopolitical situation. If tensions persist, the market will be stable and slightly strong; if the situation eases, prices will fall from high levels. The impact of Iranian production and export restrictions will be felt after July, and near - month contracts are relatively stronger. However, the potential for price increase is limited as the current prices are close to the annual high, and the risk of further price speculation is increasing [3][25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures continued to rise. Geopolitical conflict news in the Middle - East fermented, causing significant fluctuations in energy and chemical products. As Iran is the main source of China's methanol imports, the supply - side impact on methanol was more severe. The 2509 contract rose by over 5% last week. In the spot market, prices in various regions increased significantly, and the basis in Jiangsu's Taicang expanded. The price difference between regions widened, opening up arbitrage opportunities [6] 3.2 Supply Side - **Domestic Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol plants increased last week, and production continued to rise. Some previously shut - down or reduced - load plants resumed operation, and the overall recovery volume exceeded the loss. The current profit margins give little incentive for manufacturers to reduce production, and there are no planned maintenance plants in the near future. The capacity utilization rate was 88.65%, up 0.67 percentage points month - on - month and 5.12 percentage points year - on - year. Weekly production was 199.78 tons, up 1.52 tons month - on - month and 24.86 tons year - on - year [8] - **Overseas Supply**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate dropped significantly. The international methanol plant operating rate was 55.11%, down 15.8 percentage points month - on - month, and weekly production was 80.39 tons, down 23.05 tons month - on - month. Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, Iranian methanol plants have all shut down, and there is a high possibility of further conflict escalation. Non - Iranian plants in North and South America are operating stably, while some in Southeast Asia and Africa have reduced production. Import reduction in July is almost certain [10] 3.3 Demand Side - In the demand side, port prices have risen sharply, leading to traders hoarding goods and downstream resistance. In the inland market, although price increases are smaller, downstream industries' profit margins have shrunk, and most enterprises are facing increased losses. As it is the consumption off - season, there is a greater expectation of plant load reduction. The MTO plant capacity utilization rate was 89.2%, up 0.64 percentage points month - on - month and 16.53 percentage points year - on - year. However, MTO plant losses have increased, and there is a possibility of load reduction in the future. The capacity utilization rates of traditional downstream plants vary, with some increasing and some decreasing [11][15] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the methanol arrival volume at ports decreased, and ports significantly reduced inventory. This week's planned arrival volume is similar to last week's. However, due to the widened price difference between ports and inland areas, the arbitrage window has opened, and inland supply through road transportation has increased. With reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, ports may see inventory accumulation. As of June 20, coastal port methanol inventory was 95.38 tons, down 7.76 tons month - on - month and 16.31 tons year - on - year. Manufacturer inventory decreased, mainly in East, Central, and Southwest China. With the opening of the arbitrage window, manufacturers may continue to reduce inventory, supporting inland prices. As of June 20, manufacturer inventory was 36.74 tons, down 1.18 tons month - on - month and 5.99 tons year - on - year [17][18] 3.5 Cost Side - Last week, methanol prices rebounded significantly, increasing the profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol plants and narrowing the losses of southwest natural - gas - based plants. Coal prices slightly increased last week, with a decrease in inventory at northern ports. Market sentiment improved, and the number of inquiries increased. However, downstream users are still observing, and terminal users are only making necessary purchases. Although coal production is expected to increase slightly in June, the growth may be limited due to safety inspections. On the demand side, as it enters the peak electricity - coal consumption season, coal prices have stopped falling, but due to high inventory and the substitution effect of clean energy, the supply - demand situation remains weak, and coal price increases are expected to be limited [20][21] 3.6 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are strongly fluctuating. Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, international crude oil prices have risen significantly. Although the current price is in a high - level shock and has not further increased, the main support comes from the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. There are also new positive factors such as the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, there are also negative factors, such as the IEA's significant increase in supply growth expectations and the continued export of Iranian oil. The future trend depends on Iran's response and whether the conflict will expand [23][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and soared rapidly in the second half due to the Iran - Israel conflict, with weekly gains of over 12% for the three major crude oil futures. In the current market, the export issues of Iranian crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz may be re - priced. With the arrival of the summer consumption peak season, the support for oil prices will strengthen. The recent US economic data has boosted the market's interest - rate cut expectation, alleviating the macro - economic pressure. The Iran - Israel conflict has increased market risk appetite, which may further boost oil prices. Therefore, there is still room for oil prices to rise, and it is recommended to operate cautiously with a bullish bias and consider shorting the crack spread of refined oil products [13][20][64]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the latter half of the oil price was affected by the Iran - Israel conflict and soared rapidly, with the three major crude oil futures recording weekly gains of over 12%. In the absence of an obvious sign of easing in the geopolitical conflict this week, there may still be a small upward space for oil prices. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [535 - 565] yuan/barrel and consider cautious bottom - fishing for long positions. However, be aware of the rapid decline in oil prices when there is news of geopolitical easing [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and then quickly rose in the second half due to the Iran - Israel conflict, resulting in weekly gains of over 12% for the three major crude oil futures. Currently, the Iran - Israel conflict has not had a substantial impact on crude oil exports in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked or the war spreads to neighboring producing countries, oil prices will still have upward potential [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Macro - economy**: - US economic data is improving. The May CPI data was lower than expected, and the initial and continuing jobless claims increased, along with weak PPI data. This has increased the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in September to over 80%, reducing the upward pressure on oil prices [25]. - The Iran - Israel conflict has escalated rapidly. Israel launched a large - scale military operation against Iran on June 13, and Iran retaliated. The nuclear negotiation between Iran and the US was cancelled. If the conflict spreads to the Strait of Hormuz, it may disrupt crude oil exports and open up upward space for oil prices [31]. - **Supply**: - According to the May monthly report, OPEC + production decreased by 106 thousand barrels per day from March to April. If the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, nearly 80% of crude oil transportation will be affected, with only Saudi Arabia and the UAE having some alternative transportation capabilities [34][35]. - There are still contradictions between Saudi Arabia and Russia in production. The US production remains stable [39][42]. - **Demand**: - Attention should be paid to changes in institutional expectations. The manufacturing industries in China and the US are contracting, but refined oil production has shown a slight recovery [45][48][54]. - **Inventory**: - US crude oil inventories are decreasing, mainly due to the recovery of consumption. US refineries' daily crude oil processing volume has reached a peak since July 2024, indicating a recovery in North American consumption [56]. - US refined oil inventories are increasing, which may narrow the crack spread [59]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and soared after the Iran - Israel conflict. The market may re - price the export issues of Iranian crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz. With the summer consumption peak season and the boost of the interest - rate cut expectation, and the ongoing Iran - Israel conflict, there is still upward space for oil prices. It is recommended to operate cautiously with a bullish bias and consider shorting the crack spread of refined oil products [64].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, be cautious about short - selling near - month contracts. Although the demand is in a phased weakening, the agricultural demand for fertilizers is not over yet, and there is still some purchasing demand support in the future. - In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship will gradually become looser. After the agricultural demand ends, the urea demand will seasonally weaken, the industrial demand cannot support alone, and there is no sign of export liberalization, so there is significant downward pressure on urea [2][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - Last week, the domestic urea market showed a volatile trend of first decline and then rise, with the overall price center shifting down. After the Qingming Festival, affected by factors such as insufficient downstream demand, restricted logistics, and the US tariff increase policy, the market was weak at first. Then, as production enterprises cut prices to receive orders, the market replenishment demand was released, and the market improved in the second half of the week. - On April 11, the mainstream prices of small - particle urea in various regions declined. For example, the mainstream price in Henan was 1910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - International urea prices declined. For example, the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Middle East was 387 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period. The export is still under control, and the possibility of liberalization is low [6][8]. 3.2 Supply Side - The domestic urea plant capacity utilization rate remained high, with an overall high supply pressure. Last week, the domestic urea plant capacity utilization rate was 86.41%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase compared with the previous period, and 1.62 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The daily average output was 19.44 tons, a 0.6% increase compared with the previous period and a 5.88% increase compared with the same period last year. - Among different processes, the capacity utilization rate of natural gas plants increased, while that of coal - based plants decreased. There were many changes in coal - head plants during the statistical period. This week, some previously shut - down plants are planned to restart, so the supply side still has pressure [9][10]. 3.3 Demand Side - Agricultural demand is in a phased window period. Spring fertilizers are coming to an end, and the connection with summer fertilizers is poor. The demand for corn top - dressing in North China is delayed, and the fertilization progress in the South is behind schedule. The demand for compound fertilizers is also weakening. - On April 11, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants was 48.89%, a 3.5 - percentage - point decrease compared with the previous period. The inventory of sample enterprises increased. - The capacity utilization rate of melamine plants increased, and the weekly output increased significantly. However, the downstream demand for raw materials is weakening [12][13][15]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of urea manufacturers increased. Last week, the inventory was 83.37 tons, a 10.54% increase compared with the previous period and 31.44% higher than the same period last year. With the digestion of macro - negative sentiment, downstream replenishment may drive the enterprise inventory down. - The port inventory remained stable at 11.9 tons, with no change compared with the previous period and a decrease of 7.6 tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected to remain at the current level in the short term [16][19]. 3.5 Cost Side - As the urea price declined, the profits of various production methods shrank or the losses widened. The industry still has a profit margin overall. Fixed - bed process theory profit was - 114 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; water - coal - slurry process theory profit was 289 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton; natural - gas - making process theory profit was - 91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. - Last week, coal prices were basically stable. The supply - side production was stable, but the downstream demand was weak. The coal price rebounded slightly but the supply - demand situation of strong supply and weak demand remained unchanged, and the rebound range was limited [20][21].

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call pertains to the automotive industry, specifically focusing on Chang'an Automobile and its sales data for September [1]. Core Points and Arguments - The call begins with a welcome message and a disclaimer, indicating that the meeting is about the sales performance of Chang'an Automobile in September [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The meeting is structured to provide insights into the sales data, suggesting that there may be significant information regarding market trends and company performance that will be discussed [1].

Summary of Changan Automobile's July Sales Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Changan Automobile - **Date of Call**: August 6, 2024 Key Points Sales Performance - Total sales in July reached **171,000 vehicles**, showing a slight decline due to seasonal factors, but cumulative sales exceeded **1.5 million vehicles**, reflecting a **5.7% year-on-year growth** [1][2] - The **new energy vehicle (NEV)** segment saw significant growth, with sales of **45,000 vehicles**, a **15% year-on-year increase** [3] - The **Deep Blue brand** delivered **16,721 vehicles** in July, with cumulative deliveries surpassing **100,000 vehicles** in the first seven months [3][5] Product Launches and Innovations - Changan plans to launch new models, including the **Deep Blue S07** and various models in collaboration with Huawei, to drive sales growth [1] - The **Deep Blue S07**, a new mainstream mid-size SUV, was officially launched on July 25, featuring advanced technology in collaboration with Huawei [4] International Market Performance - Overseas sales of Changan's self-owned brands grew by **26% year-on-year**, with cumulative exports nearing **230,000 vehicles**, a **68% increase** [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in international markets, particularly in Latin America and Thailand, where it aims to strengthen its market position [7] Challenges and Strategic Responses - The decline in sales was primarily attributed to a **17.9% drop** in fuel vehicle sales due to intensified market competition and inventory control measures [7] - Changan is addressing supply chain challenges and enhancing market responsiveness through product innovation and channel optimization [1] Future Outlook - The company maintains an internal sales target of **2.8 million vehicles** for the year, aiming for a quarterly sales target of **700,000 vehicles** [7] - The NEV sales target for the year is set at approximately **750,000 vehicles** [8] - Upcoming product launches include the **Deep Blue SUV500** in September and the **Deep Blue SL03** in Q4, alongside new models from the Avita brand [8][10] Technological Advancements - The **Huawei ADS 3.0** technology will be integrated into Avita's models, with beta testing expected to begin in mid-August [12] - Avita plans to introduce range-extended hybrid models to meet market demand and enhance sales potential [14] Market Expansion Plans - Avita aims to expand its dealership network, targeting approximately **700-470 stores** by the end of the year, focusing on lower-tier cities [15] - The company is also planning to establish production bases in Thailand and other regions to support its global expansion strategy, with an expected annual overseas export volume of **480,000 vehicles** [16] Conclusion Changan Automobile is navigating a competitive landscape with strategic product launches, international expansion, and technological innovations while aiming to meet ambitious sales targets for the year. The focus on new energy vehicles and international markets positions the company for potential growth despite current challenges.