Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is experiencing a tug - of - war between bulls and bears around cost and inventory. The futures main contract 2601 first declined and then rebounded, while most spot prices fell, and the market trading sentiment was poor. Domestic methanol production has been declining continuously, but many sets of devices have restart plans recently, so supply is expected to pick up. Imported goods are affected by sanctions, weather and other factors, and the unloading speed is lower than expected, which eases the inventory - building pressure to some extent. However, the downstream's recent purchasing willingness is poor and the floating storage at sea is large, so the probability of continued inventory - building at ports in the future is still high, and the current bullish driving force is still insufficient. In the medium term, Iranian devices are likely to reduce or stop production due to gas restrictions in the fourth quarter. Once the gas restrictions start ahead of schedule, Iranian supply may drop precipitously, which will support the methanol price. Attention should be paid to the operation of overseas devices. [1][25] Summary by Directory 1. Market Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures first declined and then rebounded. The main 2601 contract dropped to a minimum of 2,233 yuan/ton and then rebounded, with the weekly line closing flat. The trading volume decreased by about 220,000 lots to 3.48 million lots compared with the previous week, and market sentiment became more cautious. Most spot prices fell. The port market prices continued to weaken, and the market negotiation atmosphere was average. Downstream and traders mainly entered the market for low - price rigid demand. The inland market first declined and then rebounded. The external procurement of olefin plants in Inner Mongolia boosted the regional demand, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly, but the overall increase was limited. The prices in the southwest region rose due to low inventory and cost support. [5] 2. Supply Side - Domestic supply is expected to pick up. From January to September, the cumulative domestic methanol production was 75.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.05 million tons or 11.96%. In September, the monthly output was 8.0914 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 280,000 tons but a month - on - month decrease of 260,000 tons. Recently, the number of methanol maintenance devices has increased, and the capacity utilization rate and output have continued to decline. However, many sets of devices such as Ningxia Changyi, Guangju New Materials, and Zhongmei Yuanxing are planned to restart this week, involving a capacity of over 3 million tons/year. It is expected that domestic supply will pick up again. As of October 24, the domestic methanol device capacity utilization rate was 85.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 1.9435 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 74,100 tons. [6][7] - Overseas device operating rates declined slightly. In Iran, Kimiya restarted after a short - term shutdown last week, Marjan had a technical failure and temporarily stopped, and Apadana stopped. In non - Iranian regions, only the large M5 device of South American MHTL was operating. As winter approaches, Iran will gradually restrict industrial gas use to ensure domestic gas supply. Methanol production highly depends on natural gas, so it is the core target of gas restrictions. High - frequency data shows that on the week of October 24, the overseas methanol device capacity utilization rate was 73.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.78 percentage points, 2.36 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the weekly output was 1.07 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,000 tons, slightly higher than the same period last year by 1,400 tons. [9] 3. Demand Side - The peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" are coming to an end, and demand is unlikely to grow. In the East China region, the methanol price fluctuated weakly. Due to the decline in crude oil prices, polyolefin prices followed the decline, and the decline was greater than that of methanol. The losses of MTO devices expanded, and some devices reduced their operating rates, with the capacity utilization rate declining. With the rebound of crude oil prices, the device losses were repaired, and the suppression of methanol was alleviated. On the week of October 24, the MTO device capacity utilization rate was 90.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.96 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.58 percentage points. [11] - The operating rates of traditional downstream devices showed mixed trends. Most downstream enterprises were in a loss state, which limited their production enthusiasm, and the overall procurement rhythm was slow. On the week of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid devices was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 20.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether devices was 5.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde devices was 39.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.27 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Shandong MTBE devices was 67.79%, a month - on - month increase of 4.67 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.51 percentage points. [15] 4. Inventory - Last week, the arrival volume at coastal ports was 352,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. At the same time, the提货 volume in Jiangsu decreased, and the ports started to build up inventory again. There are still many foreign trade ships in transit, and the subsequent arrival volume is high, so the port inventory pressure continues, and the inventory inflection point has not appeared, which limits the upside space of methanol. The manufacturers' inventory fluctuated slightly. Some devices were under maintenance, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. It is expected that the manufacturers' inventory will decline slightly this week. On the week of October 24, the social inventory was 1.5122 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 403,500 tons. Among them, the port inventory was 1.8726 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 317,600 tons; the manufacturers' inventory was 360,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 85,900 tons; the downstream enterprises' inventory was 163,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 29,200 tons. [16] 5. Cost Side - Recently, coal prices have risen, and the profits of methanol devices have been poor. The profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based production have shrunk, while gas - based production has remained in a loss state. After the National Day, coal prices continued to rise, but the increase has narrowed since last week. At the end of the week, the market sentiment weakened. Shenhua lowered the purchase price, and port traders were more willing to sell. Many mines at the pithead lowered their selling prices. On the supply side, last week, the capacity utilization rate of 462 mines in the country was 91%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7 percentage points, and the daily output was 547,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,300 tons. Near the end of the month, some mines will stop production, and the supply of market coal will shrink slightly. In addition, the supervision of over - production is still strict, and production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, last week, the cold air moved south, the daily consumption of southern power plants decreased, and most power plant inventories were above the safety line, so the short - term replenishment willingness was average. In the north, some areas have started heating, and the procurement enthusiasm of power plants has increased, and demand has improved. In general, under policies such as safety supervision and strict inspection of over - production, the supply side is difficult to increase. On the demand side, northern regions are starting winter storage one after another, and the market purchasing sentiment has improved. However, due to the alleviation of high temperatures in the south and the rapid rise of coal prices before, the downstream's resistance mentality has become stronger, and the upward support for coal prices has weakened, and there may be a correction. [20] 6. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin and new sanctions imposed by the US and Europe on Russia activated the geopolitical risk premium, and oil prices rose rapidly, driving the petrochemical sector to stop falling. In terms of supply and demand, although there was positive support for US inventories last week, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that in the four weeks as of October 17, the average daily total demand for refined oil products in the US was 20.474 million barrels, 0.1% lower than the same period last year, and the weak demand signal restricted the rebound height. The macro - level probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October exceeded 90%, which provided support. This week, oil prices will still be under the combined effect of "geopolitical support + supply - demand suppression". Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on October 28 and the China - US talks at the APEC Summit in early November. [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices were strong, erasing all losses since October due to US sanctions on Russia. In the current market, US sanctions on Russia have reduced expectations of a broader supply, but the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting in early November may lead to increased production, and US oil storage plans may also increase supply, which could suppress oil prices. Financially, the market expects interest rate cuts after the release of US September CPI data, which may relieve macro - economic pressure. Politically, the change in US policy towards Russia may boost oil prices in the short - term, but its long - term impact is uncertain. Overall, oil prices may have limited upside in the short - term and be under pressure in the long - term [13][73]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices rose due to sanctions on Russia, erasing losses since October. This week, oil prices may remain strong, but with limited upside due to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and US oil storage plans. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 450 - 495 yuan/barrel, make short - term long positions cautiously, and take short positions on rallies in the long - term [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the US sanctioned two Russian oil companies, reducing market expectations of a broader supply and causing oil prices to rise. The deterioration of US - Russia relations may also prevent an effective cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict in the short - term, which also contributed to the rise in oil prices [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Inflation Data**: In September, US inflation data was lower than expected. The unadjusted CPI annual rate was 3%, and the core CPI also showed a downward trend, which boosted market confidence and increased expectations of interest rate cuts [24]. - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The release of inflation data increased market expectations of interest rate cuts in the remaining two FOMC meetings this year and next year [24]. - **Labor Market**: The suspension of ADP providing employment data to the Fed may increase concerns about the US labor market [32]. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The cancellation of the planned US - Russia meeting and new sanctions on Russian oil exports, as well as US military actions near Venezuela, may lead to higher oil prices due to geopolitical risks [37]. 3.3.2 Supply Factors - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ countries generally increased production in September, with Saudi Arabia having the largest increase of 248 thousand barrels per day [41]. - **US Sanctions**: US sanctions on Russia may affect oil supply. - **Other Producers**: Iran and Iraq also increased production, while the US had a small production cut [46][49]. 3.3.3 Demand Factors - **Weak Consumption**: Consumption performance remained weak, and the manufacturing PMIs of the US and China did not improve [52][56]. - **Slowing Refining**: The production of refined oil products continued to slow down [62]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil Inventory**: US crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased in the week ending October 22, which supported oil prices [63]. - **Refined Oil Inventory**: US refined oil inventories decreased, but due to low refinery utilization and the off - season of consumption, it was difficult to boost oil prices [67]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - In the short - term, oil prices may have some upside due to the deterioration of US - Russia relations, but considering the OPEC+ meeting and US oil storage needs, the upside is limited, and oil prices are under pressure in the long - term [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices were mainly weak, and the overall unilateral downward pattern remained unchanged, with prices approaching the lows in May. The supply - side expectation of loosening in the commodity attribute, weak winter consumption, and the expected increase in inventory data will continue to drag down oil prices. In terms of the financial attribute, although the market has high expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut this year, factors such as the U.S. federal government shutdown, delayed economic data, and banking turmoil make it difficult for global financial easing to effectively boost commodity prices. Politically, with the cease - fire agreements in the Middle East and the increasing expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical factor is less likely to have a significant impact on oil prices. Overall, oil prices will remain under pressure and are unlikely to recover significantly [12][18][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Since the National Day, oil prices have been in a unilateral downward channel. Last week, they neared the price lows since May. Although there was a slight rebound over the weekend, the downward trend continued. It is expected that oil prices will remain weak this week, with a suggested price range of 415 - 440 yuan/barrel. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies. However, as U.S. oil prices have squeezed producers' costs, the downside space may be limited [12]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices broke downward. The expectation of a looser supply side and the easing of geopolitical tensions significantly suppressed oil prices. The U.S. government shutdown and delayed economic data also contributed to the continuous decline in oil prices, which broke through the lows since May [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomics - **U.S. government shutdown**: Last week, the U.S. regional banking sector slumped, with the KBW regional bank index dropping 3.6%, the largest single - day decline since May. The market value of 74 large U.S. banks evaporated by over $100 billion in a single day due to loan fraud incidents in at least two medium - sized banks, which may further hit market confidence. The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its third week, and the delay in key economic data has led to concerns about the Fed's future decisions. The market expects that the upcoming data may support an interest rate cut, and it is likely that the Fed will continue to cut rates at the end - of - October meeting [22]. - **This week's CPI trend**: The report mentions the U.S. CPI and core CPI data but does not provide specific analysis on this week's CPI trend [24][26]. - **Geopolitical situation**: In the Middle East, the visit of the U.S. president and the signing of the cease - fire agreement have reduced concerns about the geopolitical situation, but there are still uncertainties due to disputes over the implementation of the cease - fire agreement. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, after the U.S. - Russia call, there are expectations of a cease - fire, which may affect the situation, and continuous attention is needed [28]. 3.3.2 Supply - **OPEC+ production increase**: OPEC+ increased its daily production by 630,000 barrels to 43.05 million barrels in September, reflecting the implementation of approved production increase quotas [32][43]. - **Differences in production growth between Saudi Arabia and Russia**: There are differences in the production growth rates of Saudi Arabia and Russia, but specific details are not elaborated in the report [33]. - **Synchronous production increase in Iran and Iraq**: Iran and Iraq have both increased their oil production, but no specific analysis is provided in the report [36]. - **Stable recovery of U.S. production**: U.S. oil production has been increasing recently and has not been restricted by weak consumption [40]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Increasing supply - demand surplus**: OPEC's monthly report shows that although oil demand is expected to be stable, OPEC+ production increase may lead to a supply - side pressure. The IEA monthly report indicates that the global oil supply - demand surplus will be more severe than previously expected, which may lead to an increase in inventory and suppress oil prices [43]. - **Weak manufacturing in China and the U.S.**: The manufacturing PMIs in China and the U.S. have not improved, which may affect oil demand [46]. - **Slowdown in refined oil production**: The production of refined oil has slowed down, which may also reduce oil demand [52]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Continuous increase in crude oil inventory**: In the week ending October 10, U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventories both increased significantly more than expected. The increase in U.S. production and the decrease in refinery utilization rate led to the accumulation of inventory [53]. - **Difficult to boost with refined oil de - stocking**: In the week ending October 10, U.S. gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased. However, the weak situation on both the consumption and supply sides makes it difficult for refined oil prices to support oil prices [57]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Overall, oil prices will remain under pressure due to the weak performance of the three attributes (commodity, financial, and political), and it is difficult for them to recover significantly [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is high on the bearish side [11] 2. Core Viewpoints - Since September, oil prices have remained stable, but since October, they have dropped significantly due to changes in the macro - atmosphere and production - increase policies. It is expected that oil prices will be difficult to recover significantly this month. The overall fundamentals, financial attributes, and political attributes are all unfavorable for oil prices, so in the short term, oil prices may continue to operate weakly [12][85] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Since September, oil prices have been stable overall. Although they once exceeded 500 yuan in the first half, they have dropped significantly since October under the influence of macro - atmosphere changes and production - increase policies. It is expected that oil prices will be difficult to recover significantly this month. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 420 - 470 yuan/barrel, and consider high - selling and low - buying within the range. Aggressive investors can consider shorting on rallies [12] 3.2 Market Review - In September, oil prices rebounded to some extent but with limited fluctuations and basically remained within the range. In October, there was an obvious correction due to the continuous widening of supply, the cooling of the geopolitical situation, and the macro - economic atmosphere, which jointly suppressed oil prices [19] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - factors - The US government shutdown has postponed CPI data, and prices are still rising. Non - farm data is postponed, and employment expectations are pessimistic. The market still bets on a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in the next meeting. The WTO has significantly lowered the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026. The cease - fire in the Middle East has led to a cooling of geopolitical factors affecting oil prices [23][32][35] 3.3.2 Supply - side - OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day again. However, many institutions believe the actual increase may be between 60,000 and 70,000 barrels per day. There are differences in the stances of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Attention should be paid to the compensatory production cuts of Iran and Iraq and the policy of the November 2nd meeting. US oil production continues to increase [39][50][52] 3.3.3 Demand - side - Consumption expectations are gradually weakening. Gasoline production is gradually decreasing, while diesel and fuel production are gradually recovering. Manufacturing performance remains sluggish, and European manufacturing is also contracting. The market is shifting from gasoline to diesel production [55][67][69] 3.3.4 Inventory - side - Crude oil inventory accumulation has exceeded market expectations, which suppresses the expectation of demand recovery and drags down oil prices. Gasoline and refined oil inventory declines are mainly due to the decline in US refinery production, and the overall situation may put more pressure on oil prices [76][79] 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - In September, oil prices fluctuated within a certain range, but after the National Day holiday, they opened lower and continued to fall. The long - term widening of supply, weak consumption, and inventory accumulation in the fundamentals will continue to drag down oil prices. The financial atmosphere is not conducive to oil price recovery, and geopolitical fluctuations have slowed down. Therefore, in the short term, oil prices are difficult to rebound significantly and will continue to operate weakly [85]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating, but it suggests a cautious approach to short - selling methanol [1][23] Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the methanol futures market is mainly due to high port inventories and weak demand. Although domestic methanol production has rebounded recently, multiple units are scheduled for maintenance in mid - October, and Iranian plants may shut down due to gas restrictions in winter, which will relieve supply pressure. The current basis convergence also limits the downside space. However, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions and the decline in crude oil prices, methanol prices may be affected. In the fourth quarter, there is a high probability that Iranian plants will reduce production or shut down due to gas restrictions, which could support a rise in methanol prices [2][23] Summary by Directory 1. Market Trend Review - During the National Day holiday, the methanol market was quiet with weak prices due to limited trading. After the holiday, the macro situation was poor, and the concentrated release of crude oil price drops during the holiday led to a decline in the energy and chemical sector. The main methanol contract fell below 2,300 yuan/ton, reaching a new low since June. Spot prices in multiple regions decreased, with ports weaker than inland areas. On October 10, the import price in Taicang was 2,225 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from before the holiday, and the basis in East China ports converged significantly [6] 2. Supply Side - Domestic: From January to September, the cumulative domestic methanol production was 75.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.05 million tons or 11.96%. In September, the production was 8.0914 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 280,000 tons but a month - on - month decrease of 260,000 tons. After the National Day, production rebounded significantly, with the capacity utilization rate reaching 89.53% on October 10. According to the maintenance plan, starting from October 10, some northwest units will undergo large - scale maintenance, which may cause domestic production to decline again [7][8] - Overseas: The overseas plant operating rate has recovered significantly compared to before the holiday. As of October 10, the overseas methanol plant capacity utilization rate was 72.1%, and the weekly output exceeded 1 million tons. There were rumors that Iran may limit production or conduct maintenance due to gas supply shortages in mid - to - late October [10] 3. Demand Side - After the holiday, the restocking demand of downstream enterprises was limited. The operating rates of methanol downstream units were mixed. The MTO capacity utilization rate increased to 93.19% on October 10. However, most traditional downstream units' operating rates declined due to losses and maintenance plans [13][15] 4. Inventory - During the holiday, factory inventories increased, but the pressure was not large. After the holiday, factory inventories may decline. Port inventories increased again due to reduced提货 volume during the holiday. In September, the arrival volume was about 1.37 million tons, lower than expected, and some shipments were postponed to October. On October 10, the total social inventory of methanol was 1.5432 million tons, with port inventories at 1.8826 million tons [17] 5. Cost Side - After the holiday, coal prices rebounded. On the supply side, coal production was basically stable, but strict supervision limited production growth, and the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway's autumn inspection affected coal transportation. On the demand side, electricity demand was relatively limited, but there was some rigid restocking demand after the holiday. It is expected that coal prices will fluctuate, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish in the short term [19] 6. Crude Oil - International crude oil prices have dropped significantly. The cease - fire agreement in Gaza led to the withdrawal of geopolitical risk premiums, and trade tensions and concerns about demand prospects also put pressure on prices. If WTI crude oil prices cannot recover above the $60/barrel mark, it will suppress the energy and chemical sector [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices initially rose but later declined, erasing all gains. The pessimistic long - term consumption outlook and the increasing supply have pressured oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices will fluctuate, while in the long - term, they will face downward pressure. It is recommended to cautiously short at high prices in the short term [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices showed a pattern of high at the beginning and low at the end. This week, oil prices are expected to remain under pressure. It is advisable to focus on the price range of 465 - 510 yuan/barrel and cautiously short at high prices within this range. Also, keep an eye on the production of OPEC+ countries and the United States [13]. 3.2 Market Review - In the first half of last week, oil prices rose due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the Middle East geopolitical situation. However, after the interest - rate cut, concerns about future consumption and the increasing production of OPEC+ countries and the United States led to a decline in oil prices in the second half [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomics - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, with the rate falling to the range of 4.00% - 4.25%. Some officials advocated a 50 - basis - point cut, and there are expectations of two more cuts this year. But Powell emphasized that this was a risk - management cut, and the impact on commodity prices may be limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [24][27]. 3.3.2 Supply - OPEC+ continued to increase production. For example, Saudi Arabia's production increased from 9450 thousand barrels per day in July to 9709 thousand barrels per day in August, and Russia's production also increased. Iraq's production was restored, and the US production remained stable and recovered [35][37][40]. 3.3.3 Demand - US calls and EU bans on Russian oil and gas reduced the consumption of Russian oil, leading to a wider supply in other regions. The manufacturing PMIs of the US and China did not improve, and the production of refined oil slowed down, all of which indicated weak demand [46][50][54]. 3.3.4 Inventory - US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected in the week ending September 12, but the impact on oil prices was limited. Refined oil inventories increased, especially the significant accumulation of refined oil, indicating poor consumption performance [56][60]. 3.4 View Summary - Overall, the increase in supply and the weakening of consumption will drag down oil prices. Although the Fed cut interest rates, the global financial situation is weak. The geopolitical impact on oil - producing countries will gradually decrease. Therefore, oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term and face long - term pressure [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Both steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate with a bullish bias. For steel, although the terminal demand in August was under pressure, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season characteristics may become more obvious in mid - to late September, and the replenishment demand before the National Day holiday may be released. The strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustment policies may also support the demand. For iron ore, despite the long - term pressure on demand due to the upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan, the short - term demand may remain resilient due to the peak season and policy support [1][2][3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Fundamental Production, Sales, and Inventory Changes Lead to Differentiated Performance of Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices - Last week, affected by fundamental production, sales, and inventory changes, the futures prices of steel and iron ore main contracts showed differentiation. The futures price of the rebar main contract fluctuated weakly, down 0.51% for the week, while the futures prices of hot - rolled coil and iron ore main contracts fluctuated strongly, up 0.72% and 1.27% respectively for the week. The decline of rebar was due to weak consumption and inventory accumulation, while the rise of hot - rolled coil was due to increased consumption and inventory destocking. The rise of iron ore was supported by tight supply caused by a sharp drop in overseas ore shipments and increased demand from the resumption of production of steel mills in North China [4]. 2. The Pressure of Inventory Accumulation of Steel and Iron Ore May Be Limited Due to the Improvement of Supply - Demand, Peak Season Characteristics, and Policy Support (1) Steel: The Peak Season and Holiday Characteristics Become More Obvious, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Futures Prices - **Terminal demand may be supported**: Although the terminal demand for steel in August was under pressure, in mid - to late September, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season characteristics may become more obvious, and the replenishment demand before the National Day holiday may be released. The strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustment policies, such as the possible restart of Fed rate cuts, the adequacy of fiscal policy space, and the implementation of relevant policies, may support the demand for steel [10][11]. - **Steel production may be under pressure**: Although the profitability of steel mills is in doubt and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, the improvement of steel mill profits still faces challenges due to the uncertain terminal demand and supply disturbances of raw materials. The upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan may also put pressure on steel production, especially for building materials [22][23]. - **The pressure of inventory accumulation of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be limited**: Although the terminal demand in August was under pressure and the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline last week, the peak season characteristics and policy support may lead to marginal improvement in demand, and the overall inventory accumulation pressure of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be limited [37]. (2) Iron Ore: Steel Mill Profits Are Still Supported, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Futures Prices - **Iron ore demand may be resilient in the short term but under pressure in the long term**: Although the upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan may suppress iron ore demand in the long term, in the short term, the peak season characteristics, the release of replenishment demand before the National Day holiday, and policy support may keep the iron ore demand resilient. However, the uncertain terminal demand and supply disturbances of raw materials may still pose challenges to steel mill profits and iron ore demand [40][42]. - **The pressure of tight supply of iron ore may be limited**: Overseas ore shipments are entering the peak season, and the new production capacity of overseas mines and domestic "Cornerstone Plan" may increase the supply of iron ore, so the pressure of tight supply may be limited [48]. - **The short - term inventory accumulation of iron ore ports may be limited**: Although there is long - term pressure on iron ore demand and inventory accumulation, the short - term demand may remain resilient due to the peak season and policy support, so the short - term inventory accumulation amplitude of iron ore ports may be limited [53]. 3. The Peak Season and Holiday Characteristics Become More Obvious, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices - **Steel**: The futures price may fluctuate with a bullish bias. Steel producers and traders with high inventory levels are advised to speed up the sales rhythm, while traders with low inventory levels and downstream and terminal procurement enterprises can slow down the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market. Investors are advised to take short - term long positions on dips, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [55][56]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price may fluctuate with a bullish bias. Steel mills or traders with low inventory levels are advised to slow down the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market, while traders with high inventory levels can speed up the sales rhythm. Investors are advised to use a range - trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [57].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, urea prices have been continuously falling due to weak domestic demand during the agricultural off - season and lower - than - expected participation in Indian tenders and tender prices, which has weakened speculative sentiment. - Supply pressure has slightly eased as daily urea production has declined, but it remains at a high level compared to the same period. In mid - to - late September, the restart of previously overhauled plants may push daily production back to a high level. - On the demand side, agricultural demand is progressing slowly, and the main growth points in the future are the phased procurement demand for autumn wheat base fertilizer and off - season reserves by storage enterprises. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants may continue to rise, but insufficient downstream procurement may limit their production enthusiasm. The melamine industry has many restarted plants, but terminal demand is still weak. Export performance is below expectations, and export disruptions will weaken after the export window closes. - Overall, the urea supply - demand situation is relatively loose, and prices remain under pressure. However, the current price is low, and with the support of autumn wheat base fertilizer and off - season reserve demand, the room for further decline may be limited [2][24][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - Urea futures broke through the previous oscillation range last week, with the urea 2601 contract closing at 1,663 yuan/ton on September 12, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton or 3.67% from the end of August. The main reasons are weak demand during the agricultural off - season in mid - to - early September, lower - than - expected Indian tenders, and production restrictions of compound fertilizer plants around the military parade. - The spot market is also weak. On September 12, the mainstream prices of small - particle urea in various regions decreased compared to the end of August, with downstream procurement being cautious, poor new order transactions, and slower shipment speeds. - International urea prices have also fallen. For example, the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Middle East decreased by 55 US dollars/ton from the end of August, and the decrease in the lowest bid in the Indian NFL tender on September 2 has put downward pressure on international prices [6][9]. 3.2 Supply Side - Recently, the number of overhauled urea plants in China has increased, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. Although the daily output has dropped to 18 - 190,000 tons/day, it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. On September 12, the national urea plant capacity utilization rate was 79.34%, a decrease of 3.05 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 185,600 tons, a decrease of 714,200 tons from the end of August. - By process, the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea plants was 81.47%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 146,100 tons, a decrease of 651,300 tons from the end of August. The capacity utilization rate of natural - gas - based urea plants was 72.34%, a decrease of 1.15 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 39,500 tons, a decrease of 62,900 tons from the end of August. - Most of the changed plants during the statistical period were coal - based plants. Some plants in Henan and Shanxi started overhauls in early September, and some have since resumed. After mid - September, previously overhauled plants such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Jinfeng will also resume, and it is expected that the daily output will rise above 190,000 tons, with overall supply remaining relatively abundant [10][11]. 3.3 Demand Side - Agricultural demand is progressing slowly. In mid - to - early September, it is in the agricultural off - season, and downstream dealers are cautious in procurement, with only small - scale low - price stockpiling. The next stage of agricultural demand is the autumn sowing base fertilizer for wheat from late September to mid - October, but the start is slow. - In terms of industrial demand, after the military parade, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has rebounded but is still at a low level compared to the same period. On September 12, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants was 37.82%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the end of August, and the inventory of compound fertilizer manufacturers was 826,200 tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the end of August. - The capacity utilization rate of melamine plants is 55.38%, a decrease of 3.12 percentage points from the end of August, and the output is 27,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the end of August. Terminal demand is weak, and the support for the urea market is limited. - On September 2, the Indian NFL urea import tender had a planned tender volume of 2 million tons, with a final winning bid volume of about 2.03 million tons and a winning bid price of about 460 US dollars/ton CFR, a significant drop of about 70 US dollars/ton from the August tender. After September, the domestic autumn fertilizer use and off - season reserves will start, and the export window may gradually close [13][14][16][18]. 3.4 Inventory - As of the week of September 12, the in - plant inventory of urea production enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, an increase of 46,900 tons from the end of August and an increase of 382,800 tons year - on - year, with continuous inventory accumulation for five weeks. The port inventory was 549,400 tons, a decrease of 50,600 tons from the end of August but an increase of 336,400 tons year - on - year. Although daily production has declined and some manufacturers have export orders, the weak terminal demand makes it difficult to change the situation of inventory accumulation, and price cuts to attract orders have limited effects [19]. 3.5 Cost Side - As urea prices fall, the profits of different production methods have shrunk or losses have widened. The production profit of the coal - water slurry gasification method is 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; the production profit of the fixed - bed method is - 217 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; and the production profit of the natural - gas method is - 185 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. - Last week, domestic coal prices stopped falling, and some coal prices rebounded. The port market atmosphere improved, but the actual transaction volume was limited. The coal supply has increased as previously restricted mines have resumed production, and the power plant's coal consumption has decreased seasonally after the "peak summer" period. With sufficient inventory, the coal price lacks the impetus for continuous rise [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely. Although they were initially driven up by geopolitical factors, they dropped significantly after the release of US inflation data. Currently, the supply side in the commodity attribute remains loose due to OPEC+ production increases, and the consumption side has poor expectations due to weak US economic data. This combination makes it difficult to boost oil prices. Financially, the expected 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut this week may not significantly lift commodity prices. Politically, geopolitical conflicts centered around Israel are intense, which may further amplify short - term oil price fluctuations. Overall, oil prices may remain high in the short term with some upward potential, but will face pressure in the long term [70]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices first rose due to geopolitical factors, then回调 on Thursday due to US inflation data, and recovered over the weekend. This week, oil prices are expected to be more volatile under the influence of major economies' interest rate decisions and geopolitical factors, with some upward potential. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 460 - 510 yuan/barrel. Short - term investors can take a cautiously bullish approach, while a bearish view is advisable for the long term [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices rose in the first half due to Middle East geopolitical tensions. On Thursday, they dropped sharply due to the impact of higher - than - expected US CPI data and market pessimism about future consumption. Over the weekend, they rebounded due to geopolitical factors and news of Western sanctions on Russia [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Factors - **Fed Rate Cut**: The market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this Thursday, with a 7% chance of a 50 - basis - point cut. There is a higher probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year. However, institutions are pessimistic about the Fed's rate - cut motives and the post - cut economic situation, so the rate cut may have limited impact on commodity prices [25]. - **Super Central Bank Week**: This week is a super central bank week. The Bank of England is expected to keep the interest rate at 4.0%, with the focus on signals about future rate cuts. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Wednesday due to a weak job market, concerns about US trade tariffs, and controllable inflation. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain the previous rate decision [28]. - **Geopolitical Fluctuations**: Last week, Israel's attacks on multiple countries in the Middle East and NATO's actions in Poland, along with Ukraine's call for new sanctions on Russia, have increased market concerns about geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and affected confidence in Russian oil exports [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ increased production in August. OPEC's production rose from 27.47 million barrels in July to 27.948 million barrels in August, an increase of 478,000 barrels. The total OPEC+ production increased by 509,000 barrels from 41.891 million barrels to 42.4 million barrels [36]. - **Saudi Price Cut**: Saudi Arabia cut the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil to Asian markets by $1/barrel in October, which is seen as an attempt to grab market share and may lead to more determined OPEC+ production increases [38]. - **Continuous Production Increase by Saudi and Russia**: Saudi Arabia and Russia have been increasing production, which contributes to the supply - side expansion [41]. - **Iraq's Production Recovery**: Iraq's oil production has been recovering [44]. - **Stable US Production Recovery**: US oil production has been steadily recovering [47]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Slight Improvement in Consumption Expectations**: OPEC maintains its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 105.14 million barrels per day. The IEA raises its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and the demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. However, the market still faces a high supply - surplus situation [50]. - **Weak Manufacturing in China and the US**: The manufacturing PMIs in China and the US have not shown significant improvement, which may limit oil demand [53]. - **Shift to Diesel Production**: The market is shifting towards diesel production, with gasoline consumption declining and diesel consumption expected to increase [58]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Continuous Crude Oil Inventory Build - up**: US API and EIA crude oil inventories increased in the week ending September 5, exceeding market expectations of inventory reduction. This is due to higher - than - expected US production and lower - than - expected exports, and the situation may not improve with OPEC+ production increases and Saudi price cuts [60]. - **Weak Gasoline Production**: US gasoline inventory increased in the week ending September 5, while refined oil inventory also rose. The market is in a seasonal phase of reducing gasoline production and increasing diesel production, which may support fuel oil prices [64]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Short - term oil prices may remain high with some upward potential, but long - term prices are under pressure due to supply - side expansion, weak consumption expectations, limited impact of the Fed rate cut, and intense geopolitical conflicts [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices showed some resilience in the first half but dropped significantly in the second half due to OPEC+ production increase news. In the current market, the supply-side pressure in the commodity attribute has increased, and the possibility of medium - to long - term supply contraction has decreased, which is the core factor suppressing oil prices. In terms of financial attributes, even if interest rate cuts occur as expected, they may not boost oil prices. Politically, the geopolitical situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may cool down, reducing the potential impact on oil - producing countries. Overall, oil prices will lack upward momentum and show a weakening trend [66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices dropped significantly in the second half due to OPEC+ production increase news. Considering the high expectation of interest rate cuts but the pessimistic macro - economic outlook and the loose supply trend, oil prices are expected to remain weak this week. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [460 - 495] yuan/barrel, conduct high - selling and low - buying within the range, and adopt a short - term bearish strategy on rallies [13]. 3.2 Market Review - In the first half of last week, oil prices rebounded slightly due to the high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, in the second half, under the influence of OPEC+ production increase news, concerns about supply - side loosening led to a continuous decline in oil prices, reaching a one - month low [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Poor Non - farm Performance and Difficult Interest Rate Cut to Boost**: The US non - farm payrolls in August increased by only 22,000, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The June non - farm payrolls were revised down to - 13,000, the first negative growth since December 2020. Although the market increased bets on the Fed's rapid and continuous interest rate cuts, the traditional "interest rate cut - price increase" logic may not apply, and even if the Fed cuts interest rates as expected, it may be difficult to boost the commodity market [25]. - **Labor Market Suppresses Market Confidence**: The poor non - farm data has raised concerns about the US labor market, which in turn suppresses market confidence [25]. - **Political Attribute Cooling**: Russian President Putin's statement about the possibility of ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiation has alleviated market concerns about geopolitical fluctuations to some extent [29]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Maintains Production Increase**: OPEC+ countries' production increased in July compared to June, with a total increase of 335,000 barrels per day [33]. - **October Production Increase Implementation**: OPEC+ is expected to approve a production increase of about 137,000 barrels per day in October, starting to gradually cancel the 1.66 million barrels per day production cut, which will further suppress oil prices [34]. - **Saudi Arabia and Russia Maintain Production Increase**: The production of Saudi Arabia and Russia has been increasing [33]. - **Iran and Iraq Compensatory Production Cuts**: Specific production data of Iran and Iraq are provided, showing their production trends [33]. - **US Production Stabilizes and Recovers**: The US oil production has shown a stable recovery trend [45]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Consumption Expectation Cooling**: The consumption expectation in the oil market is gradually cooling down [47]. - **Weak Manufacturing in China and the US**: The manufacturing PMIs in the US and China are not improving, indicating weak demand for oil in the manufacturing sector [50]. - **Diesel Production as the Focus**: Diesel production has become the focus in the oil market [54]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil Inventory Build - up**: The US API and EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased in the week ending August 29, which may reduce the market's expectation of inventory depletion and increase the pressure on oil prices [56]. - **Gasoline Production Cut and Diesel Recovery**: US gasoline inventory decreased while refined oil inventory increased in the week ending August 29. Refineries' strategy of reducing gasoline production and increasing diesel production remains unchanged, and the demand for diesel is expected to increase with the decrease in summer travel consumption [60]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Overall, oil prices will lack upward momentum and show a weakening trend in the near term due to supply - side pressure, the limited impact of potential interest rate cuts, and the possible cooling of geopolitical risks [66].