长安研究——钢矿周报 钢矿周报 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 15 日 旺季及长假特征或更趋明显叠加稳增长政策或加码发力，钢矿期价 观点： 钢材：尽管统计局最新公布数据显示我国 8 月钢材终端 需求仍然承压，钢联口径螺纹表需上周也延续回落。但一方面， 进入 9 月中下旬"金九银十"旺季特征或更趋明显，尤其是临 近十一长假终端和贸易商补库需求也或逐步释放，钢材尤其是 建材需求有望迎来边际改善。另一方面，宏观经济指标承压我 国经济稳增长压力加大下，以货币政策、财政政策以及产业政 策为代表的我国宏观逆周期调节政策逐步加码也或为钢材需 求端提供支撑。一是美联储本周大概率重启降息或为我国央行 降准、降息打开空间；二是财政部有关负责人此前表示未来财 政政策发力空间依然充足，如在今年专门发行 5000 亿元特别 国债，预计可撬动信贷投放约 6 万亿元的基础上，提前下达部 分 2026 年新增地方政府债务限额，靠前使用化债额度；三是 此前《中共中央国务院关于推动城市高质量发展的意见》对外 公布，以城市更新为代表的存量需求的挖掘以及以新型城镇化 为代表的增量需求的开拓，以及雅江水电站和国补等"两重两 新"政策效果或进一步加力 ...

长安研究——尿素月报 尿素研究报告 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 15 日 供强需弱改善有限，尿素价格承压 观点： 近期尿素价格持续下跌，一方面是农需空窗期，国内 需求疲软，同时尿素价格不断下跌抑制了下游采购积极性， 另一方面，国内出口虽有所放开，但对于印标的参与度与 此次印标价格均不及此前预期，投机情绪走弱。供需层面 看，近期尿素日产量有所回落，供给压力稍有缓解但处同 期高位，且 9 月中下旬前期检修装置陆续重启，日产或重 回高位。需求端，农需推进缓慢，下游采购积极性一般， 后市主要增长点在小麦秋季底肥带来的阶段性采购需求释 放以及储备企业淡季储备；复合肥装置产能利用率或继续 回升，但若下游采购积极性不足导致复合肥厂库存无法有 效去库，则将继续抑制厂家开工积极性及对原料的采买意 愿；三聚氰胺恢复装置较多，但终端需求依旧疲软；出口 低于预期，后市随着出口窗口的关闭，出口端扰动也将走 弱。整体看，尿素供需表现相对较宽松，价格依旧承压， 但当前价位偏低，且后市有秋季小麦底肥及淡储需求支撑， 继续下行空间或有限。仅供参考。 研发&投资咨询 张 晨 从业资格号：F3085352 投资咨询号：Z0019526 :18 ...

长安期货有限公司 原油周评 2025年9月15日 范磊（F03101876，Z0021225） 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 CONTENTS 投资咨询业务资格（陕证监许可字[2012]101号） 超级央行周来临，地缘加剧油价波动 目录 操作思路 行情回顾 基本面分析 观点小结 1 2 3 4 01 操作思路 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 操作思路 参考。 操作思路： 上周油价前半程在地缘因素影响下 持续上移，周四受到美国通胀数据 左右出现回调，但在周末再度回暖； 预计本周时间油价将在各大经济体 利率决议以及地缘波动影响下持续 扩大波动，并存一定的上行空间， 建议关注价格区间【460-510】元 /桶，短线内可谨慎偏多布局，但 中长期依然以偏空思路对待。仅供 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 (SC主力合约K线走势图) 资料来源：文华财经，长安期货 02 行情回顾 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 行情回顾 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 资料来源：文华财经，长安期货 03 基本面分析 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 （1.1）宏观——美联储降息来临，市场预期悲观 • 本周四美联储即将举行政策会议，市场目前预 计美联储将降息25个基点，甚至还有7%的概 率 ...

长安期货有限公司 投资咨询业务资格（陕证监许可字[2012]101号） 增产再临，油价依然承压 原油周评 2025年9月8日 范磊（F03101876，Z0021225） 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 CONTENTS 目录 操作思路 行情回顾 基本面分析 观点小结 1 2 3 4 01 操作思路 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 操作思路 资料来源：文华财经，长安期货 上周油价后半程时间受到OPEC+ 对待。仅供参考。 操作思路： 增产消息的影响再度出现大幅回落； 就目前来看，虽然降息预期相对较 高，但宏观经济前景预期并不乐观， 叠加供给侧的宽松趋势，预计本周 时间将持续受之影响处在弱势运行 的状态之中，建议关注价格区间 【460-495】元/桶，区间内可高 抛低吸，短线布局以逢高偏空思路 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 (SC主力合约K线走势图) 02 行情回顾 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 行情回顾 价格有所冲高，但随后在OPEC+ 行情回顾： 上周油价前半程时间在美联储降息 预期高涨的影响下略有回暖，整体 增产消息的影响下，市场对后续供 给侧趋宽的担忧情绪再度占据上风， 进而导致油价出现了连续的下探， 价格也突破至一个月以来的新低 ...

长安研究——甲醇周报 甲醇研究报告 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 8 日 伊朗限气暂未证伪&反内卷政策再次发酵，甲醇止跌反弹 观点： 近期在产业面伊朗气田轮检传闻与宏观面反内卷预期 二次发酵共同作用下，甲醇止跌后震荡偏强运行。基本面 来看，短期内检修装置增多，供应或小幅下滑，但与往年 同期相比，国内供应依旧相对充裕。需求方面，MTO 利润 修复，华东地区外采甲醇装置开工积极性有所提升，浙江 兴兴计划重启，同时旺季来临，下游需求边际改善，但海 外货源大幅增加导致港口加速累库，华东地区基差维持低 位，甲醇依旧处供强需弱状态，近期伊朗气田检修消息提 振市场做多情绪，同时反内卷相关消息再度带动大宗商品 价格上涨，短线震荡偏多思路对待，但持续性需海外供应 减量消息确认及需求端发力，注意止盈。仅供参考。 研发&投资咨询 张 晨 从业资格号：F3085352 投资咨询号：Z0019526 :18966681792 ：zhangchen@cafut.cn 二、供给端：国内产量短暂回落，海外供应保持高位 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明部分！ 放心的选择 贴心的服务 1 长安研究——甲醇周报 一、行情走势回顾 图 1：甲醇加权合约 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In August, the overall price of oil dropped significantly, with supply - side pressure outweighing the market's expectation of long - term macro - economic recovery. In the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum, with limited upside potential, while in the medium - to - long term, they remain under pressure [81]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Operation Strategy - Since August, the first - half decline has suppressed oil prices, resulting in a monthly decline. This month, oil prices are likely to remain under supply - side pressure and are unlikely to rebound significantly. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 450 - 520 yuan/barrel and adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. A bearish approach is advisable due to limited positive factors [13]. 2. Market Review - In August, supply - side pressure prevented a significant oil price rebound, and prices fluctuated at relatively low levels. Although some losses were recovered in the second half of the month, the recovery was limited despite high expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical instability [20]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Macroeconomic Factors - **Inflation and Core Prices**: Inflation persists, core prices are rising, and the quality of non - farm employment is deteriorating, which may not improve easily [24][27][30]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: The expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has decreased, the Israel - Hamas conflict in the Middle East may continue, and the negotiation between Iran and European countries has stalled, which may lead to continued problems in Iran's oil exports and support oil prices [34]. 3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production**: In July, OPEC+ increased production. Saudi Arabia and Russia both raised output, and production may continue to rise in August. Attention should be paid to compensatory production cuts in Iran and Iraq, and Venezuela's exports may be restricted. The US oil production has slightly recovered [37][41][49]. 3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Consumption Season**: The peak consumption season is ending. Gasoline production may gradually decrease, while diesel production is picking up. Manufacturing in China and the US remains sluggish, while that in Europe shows a slight recovery. The production of refined oil is shifting from gasoline to diesel [52][55][58]. 3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil**: The US crude oil inventory decreased in the week ending August 22 and 23, and the decline was in line with market expectations. The inventory may continue to fall in the short term [70]. - **Refined Oil**: The US gasoline inventory decreased, and the refined oil inventory had a large decline in the week ending August 23. Seasonal consumption led to inventory reduction, which may ease in mid - September [73]. 3.5 Spread Factors - In August, the cracking spread of North American gasoline and diesel was relatively stable. Diesel cracking slightly declined in the second half of the month, and gasoline was relatively strong. In the domestic market, as the travel season ends, refineries may shift to diesel production, which may support the cracking performance of fuel oil [77]. 4. Viewpoint Summary - In August, the center of oil prices moved down significantly. In the short term, the downward space of oil prices is limited due to the North American consumption season, but in the medium - to - long term, supply - side pressure will continue. Geopolitical factors will increase price volatility [81].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly due to the mitigation of off - season adverse factors, supply pressure, and limited inventory pressure [1][53][55]. - For steel, despite the pressure on macro - economic indicators in July, the end - demand may improve marginally, and supply may be under pressure, so steel futures prices may fluctuate strongly. For iron ore, although demand may be under marginal pressure, it still has resilience, and supply is marginally tight, so iron ore futures prices may also fluctuate strongly [2][3][53][55]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Supply - demand marginally loose and "anti - involution" policy with expected difference, steel and iron ore futures prices fluctuate downwards - Last week, the futures prices of steel and iron ore main contracts fluctuated downwards. The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore main contracts fell by 2.16%, 2.27%, and 0.77% respectively. The macro - economic data in July showed pressure on the economy, and the supply of steel and iron ore increased significantly, with off - season factors still affecting, resulting in a marginally loose supply - demand situation. Also, the "anti - involution" policy implementation is market - based, and the short - term implementation may fall through, suppressing the bullish sentiment [6]. II. Steel supply - demand marginally tight, iron ore supply under pressure and demand with resilience, the pressure of inventory accumulation for steel and iron ore may be limited (1) Steel: Supply under pressure and demand warming up, futures prices may fluctuate strongly - **Terminal demand may show resilience**: Although macro - economic indicators in July were under pressure, the end of the "severe flood season" may relieve adverse weather factors, and the implementation of policies and project starts may improve the terminal demand for steel, especially for building materials [8][10][53]. - **Supply may be under marginal pressure**: Although steel mills' profits are okay, the approaching 9.3 parade may lead to significant production - restriction pressure on steel mills in North China, and the new round of supply - side reform in the steel industry may also limit the supply [26][53]. - **Limited pressure of inventory accumulation**: Although the expectation of "one - size - fits - all" forced production reduction is reduced and the real demand is still under pressure, the demand - side policies and the resilience of terminal demand may limit the pressure of inventory accumulation for rebar and hot - rolled coil [38]. (2) Iron ore: Demand under marginal pressure but with resilience and limited inventory pressure, futures prices may fluctuate strongly - **Demand with marginal pressure but resilience**: The upcoming 9.3 parade and the new round of supply - side reform in the steel industry may put marginal pressure on iron ore demand. However, steel mills' profits are okay, and the expectation of "one - size - fits - all" forced production reduction is reduced, so the demand may still have resilience [43][44][55]. - **Limited pressure of supply tightness**: Although the arrival of foreign ore decreased last week, the foreign ore shipment may return to normal, and the new production capacity of foreign mines and overseas equity mines may increase, so the pressure of supply tightness may be limited [46][47]. - **Limited inventory accumulation**: Due to the potential production - restriction of steel mills, iron ore demand may be under marginal pressure. But considering the resilience of demand, the accumulation of port inventory may be limited [49][52][55]. III. Mitigation of off - season adverse factors, supply under pressure, and limited inventory pressure, steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly - **Steel**: The end - demand may improve marginally, and supply may be under pressure, so steel futures prices may fluctuate strongly. Steel producers and high - inventory traders are advised to speed up sales, while low - inventory traders and end - users can buy on dips or establish long hedging positions on the futures market. Investors can take short - term long positions on dips, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with stop - loss and take - profit [2][53]. - **Iron ore**: Although demand may be under marginal pressure, it still has resilience, and supply is marginally tight, so iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly. Steel mills and low - inventory traders can buy on dips or establish long hedging positions on the futures market, while high - inventory traders can speed up sales. Investors can trade within a range, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with stop - loss and take - profit [3][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The oil price fluctuated last week and rebounded slightly in the second half. Although it recorded its first increase in three weeks, the overall increase was relatively limited. In the current market situation, the long - term loosening trend on the supply side in the commodity attribute remains the core factor suppressing the oil price rebound. Although the recent consumption in the US shows resilience and inventory has decreased continuously, its support for the oil price is relatively limited. In terms of financial attributes, after the Jackson Hole meeting, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has almost reached its peak, which may lead to a gradual improvement in macro - economic pressure and open up the upward space for the oil price. Politically, after the US - Russia negotiations, the market's short - term expectation of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has decreased again, and overall political volatility may continue. Therefore, in the near term, the oil price may continue to fluctuate, with a possible short - term rebound but the overall amplitude may be relatively limited [67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price rebounded slightly in the second half, mainly affected by the Fed's dovish stance and the fruitless Russia - Ukraine negotiations. It is expected that the oil price will fluctuate this week, with a small upward potential. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [470 - 515] yuan/barrel. Operations should focus on short - term spreads, and short - selling at high prices can be cautiously considered. This week, attention should be paid to the speeches of Fed officials, US economic data, and geopolitical trends [13]. 3.2 Market Review - The oil price rebounded in the second half of last week, recording its first increase in three weeks. This was due to two factors: the market's interpretation of Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting as dovish, and the relatively fruitless cease - fire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Fed's Attitude and Rate - cut Expectations**: The minutes of the Fed's July monetary policy meeting showed that most officials believed the threat of persistent high inflation exceeded the risk of a weakening labor market. Although there were differences in opinions among some officials, the market's expectation of a rate cut in September remained as high as 75%. After the Jackson Hole meeting, the market interpreted Powell's speech as dovish, and the probability of a rate cut in September was close to 90% [25]. - **US Inflation**: US inflation persists, and the core inflation may rebound [28]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US - Russia - Ukraine talks last week did not lead to a cease - fire. Russia's demands were not accepted by Ukraine, and the market's expectation of a cease - fire became more pessimistic, causing the oil price to rebound slightly. In addition, the possible deterioration of US - Venezuela diplomatic relations may affect Venezuela's low - cost energy exports [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **Saudi Arabia and Russia's Production Increase**: Saudi Arabia and Russia continued to increase production. In July, OPEC +'s total production increased by 335,000 barrels per day compared to June [35]. - **Compensatory Production Cuts in Iran and Iraq**: Iran and Iraq carried out compensatory production cuts [40]. - **Stable Recovery of US Production**: US oil production remained stable and showed a recovery trend [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Slight Recovery in Consumption Expectations**: There was a slight recovery in consumption expectations [46]. - **Contraction in Manufacturing**: The manufacturing sectors in the US and China remained in a contraction state [49]. - **Change in Refined Oil Production Direction**: There was a change in the production direction of refined oil [55]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Limited Support from Crude Oil De - stocking**: US crude oil inventories decreased significantly last week, far exceeding market expectations. This was due to the high utilization rate of US refineries and a surge in exports, which weakened the impact of the growth in US shale oil production [57]. - **Gasoline Production Cut and Diesel Recovery**: US gasoline inventories continued to decline, while refined oil inventories increased. North American refineries were adjusting production policies to shift from prioritizing gasoline to increasing diesel production [61]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - The oil price may continue to fluctuate in the near term, with a possible short - term rebound but the overall amplitude may be relatively limited [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: Although adverse weather conditions such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall in many areas still occur frequently, the real - time terminal demand for steel may remain under pressure, and the inventory accumulation pressure of coils and rebar may continue. However, after the "severe flood period from late July to early August", with the start of large - scale "two major" projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Plant and the continuous implementation of "two new" policies, the terminal demand for steel may remain resilient, and steel futures prices may have downward support [1][41]. - Iron ore: Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will release a new round of steel industry stability - growth work plan, and the China Iron and Steel Association has proposed to strictly implement the deployment of crude steel production control, and there may be production restrictions for steel mills in North China near the September 3rd parade, the demand - side pressure on iron ore may gradually emerge, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation at iron ore ports. But due to the policy expectation difference in supply - side structural reform and the implementation of demand - side management policies, the replenishment demand of traders and terminal steel mills before the production restrictions in North China in late August may still be released, and the production enthusiasm of steel mills is still relatively high, so the demand for iron ore may remain resilient, and iron ore futures prices may have downward support [2][42]. Summary by Directory 1. Expected Boost but Weak Reality Dominates, Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices Rise and Then Fall - Last week, the futures prices of steel and iron ore main contracts showed a trend of rising and then falling. The main contracts of hot - rolled coils and iron ore performed slightly stronger, both rising 0.32% week - on - week, while the futures price of the rebar main contract fell 0.78% week - on - week. In the first two trading days of last week, policy expectations led to a strong - side oscillation of steel and iron ore futures prices. However, starting from Wednesday, the prices began to fall. One reason was the expected pressure on China's macro - economic data in July, and the actual data of investment, consumption, industry, and real estate were indeed under pressure. The other reason was the significant decline in the apparent demand for rebar and the continuous inventory accumulation of rebar and hot - rolled coils [4]. 2. Supply - Demand Marginally Loose but Terminal Demand Resilience May Gradually Appear, Steel and Iron Ore Inventory Accumulation Pressure May Be Limited Overall (1) Steel: The Window of Supply - Demand Mismatch in Loose Conditions Remains, but Terminal Demand Resilience May Gradually Appear, and Futures Prices May Have Downward Support - **Terminal Demand**: Last week, the consumption of rebar significantly declined to below the level of the same period last year, while the consumption of hot - rolled coils increased month - on - month and was higher than that of the same period last year. The impact of off - season adverse weather on the consumption of building materials such as rebar was more significant. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of investment, consumption, industry, and real estate indicators all declined. Although the year - on - year decline in new housing starts in the real estate sector continued to narrow slightly and the year - on - year growth rate of automobile sales increased, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment still widened, and the year - on - year growth rates of narrow - sense infrastructure and manufacturing investment also slowed significantly. This week, although the adverse weather still exists, the terminal demand for steel may remain resilient with the start of "two major" projects and the implementation of policies [9]. - **Supply**: Last week, the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased for the first time after continuous increases, and the profits of rebar blast furnaces, electric furnaces, and hot - rolled coils continued to decline. The capacity utilization rate of steel mill blast furnaces and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils remained basically stable. This week, the expected "one - size - fits - all" administrative production cuts have decreased, and steel production may still have room for release. However, with the upcoming new round of steel industry stability - growth plan and production control policies, as well as the possible production restrictions in North China near the September 3rd parade and off - season factors, the overall steel supply may be under pressure [18]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to accumulate. This week, although the terminal demand for steel shows resilience, the expected reduction of "one - size - fits - all" production cuts and the overall pressure on off - season real - time demand may lead to a continuation of the inventory accumulation pressure for coils and rebar [30]. (2) Iron Ore: Although the Expectation of Steel Mill Production Restrictions and Supply - Side Structural Reform Remains, the Demand Side May Have Resilience, and Futures Prices May Have Downward Support - **Demand**: Last week, the iron ore port clearance volume at 45 ports significantly increased to the highest level in recent years, and the port transactions were active. The daily iron ore consumption of steel mills and the average daily molten iron output increased slightly. This week, although there may be production restrictions for steel mills, the replenishment demand of traders and terminal steel mills before the production restrictions in North China in late August may still be released, and the production enthusiasm of steel mills is still high, so the demand for iron ore may remain resilient [34]. - **Supply**: Last week, the iron ore shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 242,000 tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by nearly 95,000 tons. This week, the iron ore shipment from overseas mines may transition from the off - season to normal, and new production capacity is expected to be released. The overall supply of iron ore may be relatively loose [35]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the iron ore inventory of steel mills increased significantly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation at iron ore ports, but the replenishment demand of steel mills may limit the degree of inventory accumulation [38]. 3. Supply - Demand Marginally Loose but the Implementation Effect of Demand - Side Management Policies May Gradually Appear, Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices May Have Downward Support - **Steel Operation Suggestions**: Steel producers and traders with high inventory levels can temporarily slow down the sales rhythm; traders with low inventory levels, downstream, and terminal procurement enterprises can appropriately speed up the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market. Investors are advised to adopt a range - trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying, paying attention to profit - taking and stop - loss [41]. - **Iron Ore Operation Suggestions**: Steel mills or traders with low inventory levels can appropriately speed up the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market; traders with high inventory levels can temporarily slow down the sales rhythm. Investors are advised to adopt a range - trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying, paying attention to profit - taking and stop - loss [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated widely. Despite a slight recovery during the week, the decline at the beginning and end of the week led to the lowest level in nearly three weeks, with the weekly line recording two consecutive weeks of decline. Considering the current market situation, the long - term expectation of a loose supply side in the commodity attribute will continue to pressure oil prices. Even though inventories have slightly decreased recently, it is difficult to support oil prices due to the relatively pessimistic summer demand outlook. In terms of financial attributes, Powell remains cautious about interest rate cuts, and Trump's tariff policy may turn more aggressive, maintaining overall pressure. Politically, geopolitical situations around the world have not significantly cooled down, but the possibility of escalation is also relatively small, remaining volatile. Therefore, in the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum and may continue to fluctuate weakly if there are no significant changes in various factors [63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely. Although there was a slight rebound during the week, the decline at the weekend erased most of the gains. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate widely this week. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [485 - 525] yuan/barrel, mainly engage in short - spread operations within the range, and consider short - selling on rallies. However, due to geopolitical and other factors, the volatility may increase, so it is not advisable to chase the decline excessively [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices generally showed a wide - range fluctuating trend. During the week, they were affected by long - term interest rate cut expectations, tariff negotiation changes, and geopolitical situations, showing a slight recovery. However, at the weekend, most of the gains were given back, resulting in the lowest level in nearly three weeks, and the weekly line recorded two consecutive weeks of decline [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Tariff Policy**: Trump plans to set a new "reciprocal tariff rate" system before August 1, with tariff rates ranging from 15% to 50%. Some countries will face a maximum tariff of 50%, and Japan and some EU countries have reached a 15% tariff agreement. This indicates that the Trump administration's tariff policy is becoming more aggressive, which may lead to a more pessimistic market expectation for the results on August 1 [25]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectation**: The market has a high expectation of an interest rate cut in September, which may have an impact on oil prices [28]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: In the Middle East, the US - Hamas cease - fire negotiation has not made substantial progress, and France's plan to recognize Palestine may ease the situation. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the third round of talks did not achieve substantial results, and the relationship between Russia and other countries remains uncertain. Iran and the US will participate in a new round of nuclear negotiations, leaving some room for the Iranian nuclear issue [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is expected to maintain the current production increase plan at the meeting on Monday. Eight member countries will increase their total daily production by 548,000 barrels starting from August. Also, there are concerns about restricted Russian oil exports, which may alleviate the long - term expectation of a loose supply side to some extent [36]. - **Russian and Iranian Oil Exports**: Attention should be paid to the changes in Russian and Iranian oil exports, which may affect the global oil supply [37]. - **US Oil Production**: US oil production has slightly decreased [40]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Consumption Expectation**: The consumption expectation continues to cool down [43]. - **Manufacturing Industry**: The manufacturing industry remains in a contraction state, which may reduce the demand for oil [46]. - **Refined Oil Production**: The production of refined oil has slightly slowed down [51]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil Inventory**: US crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending July 18, which provides limited support for oil prices under the long - term pressure of a loose supply side [53]. - **Gasoline Inventory**: The decline in US gasoline inventories in the week ending July 18 may support gasoline prices, which will be transmitted to the domestic refined oil market and support the performance of fuel cracking [57]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - In the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum. If there are no significant changes in various factors, they may continue to fluctuate weakly [63].