长安研究——甲醇周报 甲醇研究报告 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 27 日 港口库存高位&伊朗限气预期仍存，甲醇博弈持续 观点： 甲醇市场多空围绕成本与库存博弈，期货主力 2601 合约先抑后扬，现货价格则多数下跌，市场交投情绪不佳。 国内甲醇产量连续下滑，但近期多套装置有重启计划，供 应预计回升，进口货源受制裁、天气等因素影响，卸货速 度不及预期，一定程度缓解累库压力；但下游近期采购意 愿不佳且海上浮仓量较大，港口后市继续累库概率仍较高， 现实利多驱动仍显不足。中期来看，四季度伊朗装置因限 气降负或停产概率较高，且因前期发运量较大，伊朗工厂 库存低位，故一旦限气提前，伊朗供应或断崖式下降，对 甲醇价格形成支撑，关注海外装置运行情况。仅供参考。 研发&投资咨询 张晨 从业资格号：F3085352 投资咨询号：Z0019526 ：zhangchen@cafut.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明部分！放心的选择贴心的服务 1 长安研究——甲醇周报 一、行情走势回顾 图 1：甲醇加权合约走势-日线 单位：元/吨 图 2：华东地区基差 单位：元/吨 资料来源：文华财经，长安期货 资料来源：隆众资讯，长安期货 上周 ...

长安期货有限公司 投资咨询业务资格（陕证监许可字[2012]101号） 美俄关系恶化短期提振，油价上方空间有限 原油周评 2025年10月27日 范磊（F03101876，Z0021225） 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 CONTENTS 操作思路 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 操作思路 考。 目录 操作思路 行情回顾 基本面分析 观点小结 1 2 3 4 01 操作思路： 上周油价受到美欧国家对俄制裁消 息的影响持续上涨，价格基本抹去 10月以来的跌幅；预计本周时间 油价或持续偏强运行，但考虑到 11月OPEC+会议在即且美国即将 大规模收储，上方空间或相对有限， 建议关注价格区间【450-495】元 /桶，短线内可谨慎偏多短差布局， 但中长期依然可逢高偏空。仅供参 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 (SC主力合约K线走势图) 资料来源：文华财经，长安期货 02 行情回顾 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 行情回顾 形成了助长力量。 行情回顾： 上周美国宣布对俄罗斯两大石油公 司实施制裁，受此消息影响，市场 对于后续供给侧趋宽的预期明显降 温，并导致油价应声上涨；同时在 地缘属性方面，美俄关系的恶化或 导致俄乌冲突较难在短期内取得有 效的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices were mainly weak, and the overall unilateral downward pattern remained unchanged, with prices approaching the lows in May. The supply - side expectation of loosening in the commodity attribute, weak winter consumption, and the expected increase in inventory data will continue to drag down oil prices. In terms of the financial attribute, although the market has high expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut this year, factors such as the U.S. federal government shutdown, delayed economic data, and banking turmoil make it difficult for global financial easing to effectively boost commodity prices. Politically, with the cease - fire agreements in the Middle East and the increasing expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical factor is less likely to have a significant impact on oil prices. Overall, oil prices will remain under pressure and are unlikely to recover significantly [12][18][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Since the National Day, oil prices have been in a unilateral downward channel. Last week, they neared the price lows since May. Although there was a slight rebound over the weekend, the downward trend continued. It is expected that oil prices will remain weak this week, with a suggested price range of 415 - 440 yuan/barrel. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies. However, as U.S. oil prices have squeezed producers' costs, the downside space may be limited [12]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices broke downward. The expectation of a looser supply side and the easing of geopolitical tensions significantly suppressed oil prices. The U.S. government shutdown and delayed economic data also contributed to the continuous decline in oil prices, which broke through the lows since May [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomics - **U.S. government shutdown**: Last week, the U.S. regional banking sector slumped, with the KBW regional bank index dropping 3.6%, the largest single - day decline since May. The market value of 74 large U.S. banks evaporated by over $100 billion in a single day due to loan fraud incidents in at least two medium - sized banks, which may further hit market confidence. The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its third week, and the delay in key economic data has led to concerns about the Fed's future decisions. The market expects that the upcoming data may support an interest rate cut, and it is likely that the Fed will continue to cut rates at the end - of - October meeting [22]. - **This week's CPI trend**: The report mentions the U.S. CPI and core CPI data but does not provide specific analysis on this week's CPI trend [24][26]. - **Geopolitical situation**: In the Middle East, the visit of the U.S. president and the signing of the cease - fire agreement have reduced concerns about the geopolitical situation, but there are still uncertainties due to disputes over the implementation of the cease - fire agreement. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, after the U.S. - Russia call, there are expectations of a cease - fire, which may affect the situation, and continuous attention is needed [28]. 3.3.2 Supply - **OPEC+ production increase**: OPEC+ increased its daily production by 630,000 barrels to 43.05 million barrels in September, reflecting the implementation of approved production increase quotas [32][43]. - **Differences in production growth between Saudi Arabia and Russia**: There are differences in the production growth rates of Saudi Arabia and Russia, but specific details are not elaborated in the report [33]. - **Synchronous production increase in Iran and Iraq**: Iran and Iraq have both increased their oil production, but no specific analysis is provided in the report [36]. - **Stable recovery of U.S. production**: U.S. oil production has been increasing recently and has not been restricted by weak consumption [40]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Increasing supply - demand surplus**: OPEC's monthly report shows that although oil demand is expected to be stable, OPEC+ production increase may lead to a supply - side pressure. The IEA monthly report indicates that the global oil supply - demand surplus will be more severe than previously expected, which may lead to an increase in inventory and suppress oil prices [43]. - **Weak manufacturing in China and the U.S.**: The manufacturing PMIs in China and the U.S. have not improved, which may affect oil demand [46]. - **Slowdown in refined oil production**: The production of refined oil has slowed down, which may also reduce oil demand [52]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Continuous increase in crude oil inventory**: In the week ending October 10, U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventories both increased significantly more than expected. The increase in U.S. production and the decrease in refinery utilization rate led to the accumulation of inventory [53]. - **Difficult to boost with refined oil de - stocking**: In the week ending October 10, U.S. gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased. However, the weak situation on both the consumption and supply sides makes it difficult for refined oil prices to support oil prices [57]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Overall, oil prices will remain under pressure due to the weak performance of the three attributes (commodity, financial, and political), and it is difficult for them to recover significantly [63].

长安期货有限公司 投资咨询业务资格（陕证监许可字[2012]101号） 地缘降温供给趋宽，油价后续难有修复 原油月评 2025年10月13日 范磊（F03101876，Z0021225） 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 CONTENTS 目录 操作思路 行情回顾 基本面分析 观点小结 1 2 3 4 01 操作思路 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 资料来源：文华财经，长安期货 高偏空。仅供参考。 操作思路： 9月以来油价整体运行平稳，虽然 前半程价格一度站在500元上方， 但10月以来则在宏观氛围转变以 及增产政策的影响下出现了明显的 回落；预计本月之中油价或较难出 现明显的回暖修复，建议关注价格 区间【420-470】元/桶，区间内 可考虑高抛低吸，激进者可考虑逢 操作思路 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 (SC主力合约K线走势图) 02 行情回顾 忠诚 敬畏 创新 卓越 行情回顾 行情回顾： 9月之中虽然油价层一度有所 反弹，但整体波动相对有限， 价格运行也基本保持在区间之 内，而在10月开始则出现了明 显的回调，主要是在供给侧持 续趋宽的背景下地缘局势以及 宏观经济氛围均出现了一定程 度的降温，三者共振对油价形 成了明显的压制 ...

长安研究——甲醇周报 研发&投资咨询 张 晨 从业资格号：F3085352 投资咨询号：Z0019526 :18966681792 ：zhangchen@cafut.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明部分！ 放心的选择 贴心的服务 甲醇研究报告 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 13 日 观点： 海外供应下滑预期仍存，甲醇谨慎做空 近期甲醇期货盘面下跌更多地受到港口高库存和相对 疲软的需求影响。近期国内甲醇产量回升，10 月中旬多套 装置有检修计划，临近冬季，伊朗装置或因限气停车，供 应压力料将有所缓解，且当前期现基差收敛，下方空间或 有限。但中美贸易摩擦升级后，商品或因市场避险情绪集 中抛售普跌，同时原油价格下跌通过聚烯烃向甲醇传导， 甲醇难以幸免，周五夜盘甲醇反弹冲高回落已有所体现， 但四季度伊朗装置因限气降负或停产概率较高，且因发运 量较大，伊朗工厂库存低位，故一旦限气发生，伊朗供应 或断崖式下降，支撑甲醇价格上行。仅供参考。 图 1：甲醇加权合约走势-日线 单位：元/吨 图 2：华东地区基差 单位：元/吨 资料来源：文华财经，长安期货 资料来源：隆众资讯，长安期货 上周时值国庆假期，节前下游完成备货，甲 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices initially rose but later declined, erasing all gains. The pessimistic long - term consumption outlook and the increasing supply have pressured oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices will fluctuate, while in the long - term, they will face downward pressure. It is recommended to cautiously short at high prices in the short term [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices showed a pattern of high at the beginning and low at the end. This week, oil prices are expected to remain under pressure. It is advisable to focus on the price range of 465 - 510 yuan/barrel and cautiously short at high prices within this range. Also, keep an eye on the production of OPEC+ countries and the United States [13]. 3.2 Market Review - In the first half of last week, oil prices rose due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the Middle East geopolitical situation. However, after the interest - rate cut, concerns about future consumption and the increasing production of OPEC+ countries and the United States led to a decline in oil prices in the second half [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomics - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, with the rate falling to the range of 4.00% - 4.25%. Some officials advocated a 50 - basis - point cut, and there are expectations of two more cuts this year. But Powell emphasized that this was a risk - management cut, and the impact on commodity prices may be limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [24][27]. 3.3.2 Supply - OPEC+ continued to increase production. For example, Saudi Arabia's production increased from 9450 thousand barrels per day in July to 9709 thousand barrels per day in August, and Russia's production also increased. Iraq's production was restored, and the US production remained stable and recovered [35][37][40]. 3.3.3 Demand - US calls and EU bans on Russian oil and gas reduced the consumption of Russian oil, leading to a wider supply in other regions. The manufacturing PMIs of the US and China did not improve, and the production of refined oil slowed down, all of which indicated weak demand [46][50][54]. 3.3.4 Inventory - US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected in the week ending September 12, but the impact on oil prices was limited. Refined oil inventories increased, especially the significant accumulation of refined oil, indicating poor consumption performance [56][60]. 3.4 View Summary - Overall, the increase in supply and the weakening of consumption will drag down oil prices. Although the Fed cut interest rates, the global financial situation is weak. The geopolitical impact on oil - producing countries will gradually decrease. Therefore, oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term and face long - term pressure [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Both steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate with a bullish bias. For steel, although the terminal demand in August was under pressure, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season characteristics may become more obvious in mid - to late September, and the replenishment demand before the National Day holiday may be released. The strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustment policies may also support the demand. For iron ore, despite the long - term pressure on demand due to the upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan, the short - term demand may remain resilient due to the peak season and policy support [1][2][3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Fundamental Production, Sales, and Inventory Changes Lead to Differentiated Performance of Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices - Last week, affected by fundamental production, sales, and inventory changes, the futures prices of steel and iron ore main contracts showed differentiation. The futures price of the rebar main contract fluctuated weakly, down 0.51% for the week, while the futures prices of hot - rolled coil and iron ore main contracts fluctuated strongly, up 0.72% and 1.27% respectively for the week. The decline of rebar was due to weak consumption and inventory accumulation, while the rise of hot - rolled coil was due to increased consumption and inventory destocking. The rise of iron ore was supported by tight supply caused by a sharp drop in overseas ore shipments and increased demand from the resumption of production of steel mills in North China [4]. 2. The Pressure of Inventory Accumulation of Steel and Iron Ore May Be Limited Due to the Improvement of Supply - Demand, Peak Season Characteristics, and Policy Support (1) Steel: The Peak Season and Holiday Characteristics Become More Obvious, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Futures Prices - **Terminal demand may be supported**: Although the terminal demand for steel in August was under pressure, in mid - to late September, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season characteristics may become more obvious, and the replenishment demand before the National Day holiday may be released. The strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustment policies, such as the possible restart of Fed rate cuts, the adequacy of fiscal policy space, and the implementation of relevant policies, may support the demand for steel [10][11]. - **Steel production may be under pressure**: Although the profitability of steel mills is in doubt and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, the improvement of steel mill profits still faces challenges due to the uncertain terminal demand and supply disturbances of raw materials. The upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan may also put pressure on steel production, especially for building materials [22][23]. - **The pressure of inventory accumulation of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be limited**: Although the terminal demand in August was under pressure and the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline last week, the peak season characteristics and policy support may lead to marginal improvement in demand, and the overall inventory accumulation pressure of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be limited [37]. (2) Iron Ore: Steel Mill Profits Are Still Supported, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Futures Prices - **Iron ore demand may be resilient in the short term but under pressure in the long term**: Although the upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan may suppress iron ore demand in the long term, in the short term, the peak season characteristics, the release of replenishment demand before the National Day holiday, and policy support may keep the iron ore demand resilient. However, the uncertain terminal demand and supply disturbances of raw materials may still pose challenges to steel mill profits and iron ore demand [40][42]. - **The pressure of tight supply of iron ore may be limited**: Overseas ore shipments are entering the peak season, and the new production capacity of overseas mines and domestic "Cornerstone Plan" may increase the supply of iron ore, so the pressure of tight supply may be limited [48]. - **The short - term inventory accumulation of iron ore ports may be limited**: Although there is long - term pressure on iron ore demand and inventory accumulation, the short - term demand may remain resilient due to the peak season and policy support, so the short - term inventory accumulation amplitude of iron ore ports may be limited [53]. 3. The Peak Season and Holiday Characteristics Become More Obvious, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices - **Steel**: The futures price may fluctuate with a bullish bias. Steel producers and traders with high inventory levels are advised to speed up the sales rhythm, while traders with low inventory levels and downstream and terminal procurement enterprises can slow down the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market. Investors are advised to take short - term long positions on dips, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [55][56]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price may fluctuate with a bullish bias. Steel mills or traders with low inventory levels are advised to slow down the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market, while traders with high inventory levels can speed up the sales rhythm. Investors are advised to use a range - trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [57].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, urea prices have been continuously falling due to weak domestic demand during the agricultural off - season and lower - than - expected participation in Indian tenders and tender prices, which has weakened speculative sentiment. - Supply pressure has slightly eased as daily urea production has declined, but it remains at a high level compared to the same period. In mid - to - late September, the restart of previously overhauled plants may push daily production back to a high level. - On the demand side, agricultural demand is progressing slowly, and the main growth points in the future are the phased procurement demand for autumn wheat base fertilizer and off - season reserves by storage enterprises. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants may continue to rise, but insufficient downstream procurement may limit their production enthusiasm. The melamine industry has many restarted plants, but terminal demand is still weak. Export performance is below expectations, and export disruptions will weaken after the export window closes. - Overall, the urea supply - demand situation is relatively loose, and prices remain under pressure. However, the current price is low, and with the support of autumn wheat base fertilizer and off - season reserve demand, the room for further decline may be limited [2][24][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - Urea futures broke through the previous oscillation range last week, with the urea 2601 contract closing at 1,663 yuan/ton on September 12, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton or 3.67% from the end of August. The main reasons are weak demand during the agricultural off - season in mid - to - early September, lower - than - expected Indian tenders, and production restrictions of compound fertilizer plants around the military parade. - The spot market is also weak. On September 12, the mainstream prices of small - particle urea in various regions decreased compared to the end of August, with downstream procurement being cautious, poor new order transactions, and slower shipment speeds. - International urea prices have also fallen. For example, the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Middle East decreased by 55 US dollars/ton from the end of August, and the decrease in the lowest bid in the Indian NFL tender on September 2 has put downward pressure on international prices [6][9]. 3.2 Supply Side - Recently, the number of overhauled urea plants in China has increased, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. Although the daily output has dropped to 18 - 190,000 tons/day, it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. On September 12, the national urea plant capacity utilization rate was 79.34%, a decrease of 3.05 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 185,600 tons, a decrease of 714,200 tons from the end of August. - By process, the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea plants was 81.47%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 146,100 tons, a decrease of 651,300 tons from the end of August. The capacity utilization rate of natural - gas - based urea plants was 72.34%, a decrease of 1.15 percentage points from the end of August, and the daily output was 39,500 tons, a decrease of 62,900 tons from the end of August. - Most of the changed plants during the statistical period were coal - based plants. Some plants in Henan and Shanxi started overhauls in early September, and some have since resumed. After mid - September, previously overhauled plants such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Jinfeng will also resume, and it is expected that the daily output will rise above 190,000 tons, with overall supply remaining relatively abundant [10][11]. 3.3 Demand Side - Agricultural demand is progressing slowly. In mid - to - early September, it is in the agricultural off - season, and downstream dealers are cautious in procurement, with only small - scale low - price stockpiling. The next stage of agricultural demand is the autumn sowing base fertilizer for wheat from late September to mid - October, but the start is slow. - In terms of industrial demand, after the military parade, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has rebounded but is still at a low level compared to the same period. On September 12, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants was 37.82%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the end of August, and the inventory of compound fertilizer manufacturers was 826,200 tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the end of August. - The capacity utilization rate of melamine plants is 55.38%, a decrease of 3.12 percentage points from the end of August, and the output is 27,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the end of August. Terminal demand is weak, and the support for the urea market is limited. - On September 2, the Indian NFL urea import tender had a planned tender volume of 2 million tons, with a final winning bid volume of about 2.03 million tons and a winning bid price of about 460 US dollars/ton CFR, a significant drop of about 70 US dollars/ton from the August tender. After September, the domestic autumn fertilizer use and off - season reserves will start, and the export window may gradually close [13][14][16][18]. 3.4 Inventory - As of the week of September 12, the in - plant inventory of urea production enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, an increase of 46,900 tons from the end of August and an increase of 382,800 tons year - on - year, with continuous inventory accumulation for five weeks. The port inventory was 549,400 tons, a decrease of 50,600 tons from the end of August but an increase of 336,400 tons year - on - year. Although daily production has declined and some manufacturers have export orders, the weak terminal demand makes it difficult to change the situation of inventory accumulation, and price cuts to attract orders have limited effects [19]. 3.5 Cost Side - As urea prices fall, the profits of different production methods have shrunk or losses have widened. The production profit of the coal - water slurry gasification method is 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; the production profit of the fixed - bed method is - 217 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; and the production profit of the natural - gas method is - 185 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. - Last week, domestic coal prices stopped falling, and some coal prices rebounded. The port market atmosphere improved, but the actual transaction volume was limited. The coal supply has increased as previously restricted mines have resumed production, and the power plant's coal consumption has decreased seasonally after the "peak summer" period. With sufficient inventory, the coal price lacks the impetus for continuous rise [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely. Although they were initially driven up by geopolitical factors, they dropped significantly after the release of US inflation data. Currently, the supply side in the commodity attribute remains loose due to OPEC+ production increases, and the consumption side has poor expectations due to weak US economic data. This combination makes it difficult to boost oil prices. Financially, the expected 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut this week may not significantly lift commodity prices. Politically, geopolitical conflicts centered around Israel are intense, which may further amplify short - term oil price fluctuations. Overall, oil prices may remain high in the short term with some upward potential, but will face pressure in the long term [70]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices first rose due to geopolitical factors, then回调 on Thursday due to US inflation data, and recovered over the weekend. This week, oil prices are expected to be more volatile under the influence of major economies' interest rate decisions and geopolitical factors, with some upward potential. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 460 - 510 yuan/barrel. Short - term investors can take a cautiously bullish approach, while a bearish view is advisable for the long term [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices rose in the first half due to Middle East geopolitical tensions. On Thursday, they dropped sharply due to the impact of higher - than - expected US CPI data and market pessimism about future consumption. Over the weekend, they rebounded due to geopolitical factors and news of Western sanctions on Russia [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Factors - **Fed Rate Cut**: The market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this Thursday, with a 7% chance of a 50 - basis - point cut. There is a higher probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year. However, institutions are pessimistic about the Fed's rate - cut motives and the post - cut economic situation, so the rate cut may have limited impact on commodity prices [25]. - **Super Central Bank Week**: This week is a super central bank week. The Bank of England is expected to keep the interest rate at 4.0%, with the focus on signals about future rate cuts. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Wednesday due to a weak job market, concerns about US trade tariffs, and controllable inflation. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain the previous rate decision [28]. - **Geopolitical Fluctuations**: Last week, Israel's attacks on multiple countries in the Middle East and NATO's actions in Poland, along with Ukraine's call for new sanctions on Russia, have increased market concerns about geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and affected confidence in Russian oil exports [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ increased production in August. OPEC's production rose from 27.47 million barrels in July to 27.948 million barrels in August, an increase of 478,000 barrels. The total OPEC+ production increased by 509,000 barrels from 41.891 million barrels to 42.4 million barrels [36]. - **Saudi Price Cut**: Saudi Arabia cut the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil to Asian markets by $1/barrel in October, which is seen as an attempt to grab market share and may lead to more determined OPEC+ production increases [38]. - **Continuous Production Increase by Saudi and Russia**: Saudi Arabia and Russia have been increasing production, which contributes to the supply - side expansion [41]. - **Iraq's Production Recovery**: Iraq's oil production has been recovering [44]. - **Stable US Production Recovery**: US oil production has been steadily recovering [47]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Slight Improvement in Consumption Expectations**: OPEC maintains its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 105.14 million barrels per day. The IEA raises its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and the demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. However, the market still faces a high supply - surplus situation [50]. - **Weak Manufacturing in China and the US**: The manufacturing PMIs in China and the US have not shown significant improvement, which may limit oil demand [53]. - **Shift to Diesel Production**: The market is shifting towards diesel production, with gasoline consumption declining and diesel consumption expected to increase [58]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Continuous Crude Oil Inventory Build - up**: US API and EIA crude oil inventories increased in the week ending September 5, exceeding market expectations of inventory reduction. This is due to higher - than - expected US production and lower - than - expected exports, and the situation may not improve with OPEC+ production increases and Saudi price cuts [60]. - **Weak Gasoline Production**: US gasoline inventory increased in the week ending September 5, while refined oil inventory also rose. The market is in a seasonal phase of reducing gasoline production and increasing diesel production, which may support fuel oil prices [64]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Short - term oil prices may remain high with some upward potential, but long - term prices are under pressure due to supply - side expansion, weak consumption expectations, limited impact of the Fed rate cut, and intense geopolitical conflicts [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices showed some resilience in the first half but dropped significantly in the second half due to OPEC+ production increase news. In the current market, the supply-side pressure in the commodity attribute has increased, and the possibility of medium - to long - term supply contraction has decreased, which is the core factor suppressing oil prices. In terms of financial attributes, even if interest rate cuts occur as expected, they may not boost oil prices. Politically, the geopolitical situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may cool down, reducing the potential impact on oil - producing countries. Overall, oil prices will lack upward momentum and show a weakening trend [66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices dropped significantly in the second half due to OPEC+ production increase news. Considering the high expectation of interest rate cuts but the pessimistic macro - economic outlook and the loose supply trend, oil prices are expected to remain weak this week. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [460 - 495] yuan/barrel, conduct high - selling and low - buying within the range, and adopt a short - term bearish strategy on rallies [13]. 3.2 Market Review - In the first half of last week, oil prices rebounded slightly due to the high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, in the second half, under the influence of OPEC+ production increase news, concerns about supply - side loosening led to a continuous decline in oil prices, reaching a one - month low [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Poor Non - farm Performance and Difficult Interest Rate Cut to Boost**: The US non - farm payrolls in August increased by only 22,000, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The June non - farm payrolls were revised down to - 13,000, the first negative growth since December 2020. Although the market increased bets on the Fed's rapid and continuous interest rate cuts, the traditional "interest rate cut - price increase" logic may not apply, and even if the Fed cuts interest rates as expected, it may be difficult to boost the commodity market [25]. - **Labor Market Suppresses Market Confidence**: The poor non - farm data has raised concerns about the US labor market, which in turn suppresses market confidence [25]. - **Political Attribute Cooling**: Russian President Putin's statement about the possibility of ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiation has alleviated market concerns about geopolitical fluctuations to some extent [29]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Maintains Production Increase**: OPEC+ countries' production increased in July compared to June, with a total increase of 335,000 barrels per day [33]. - **October Production Increase Implementation**: OPEC+ is expected to approve a production increase of about 137,000 barrels per day in October, starting to gradually cancel the 1.66 million barrels per day production cut, which will further suppress oil prices [34]. - **Saudi Arabia and Russia Maintain Production Increase**: The production of Saudi Arabia and Russia has been increasing [33]. - **Iran and Iraq Compensatory Production Cuts**: Specific production data of Iran and Iraq are provided, showing their production trends [33]. - **US Production Stabilizes and Recovers**: The US oil production has shown a stable recovery trend [45]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Consumption Expectation Cooling**: The consumption expectation in the oil market is gradually cooling down [47]. - **Weak Manufacturing in China and the US**: The manufacturing PMIs in the US and China are not improving, indicating weak demand for oil in the manufacturing sector [50]. - **Diesel Production as the Focus**: Diesel production has become the focus in the oil market [54]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil Inventory Build - up**: The US API and EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased in the week ending August 29, which may reduce the market's expectation of inventory depletion and increase the pressure on oil prices [56]. - **Gasoline Production Cut and Diesel Recovery**: US gasoline inventory decreased while refined oil inventory increased in the week ending August 29. Refineries' strategy of reducing gasoline production and increasing diesel production remains unchanged, and the demand for diesel is expected to increase with the decrease in summer travel consumption [60]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Overall, oil prices will lack upward momentum and show a weakening trend in the near term due to supply - side pressure, the limited impact of potential interest rate cuts, and the possible cooling of geopolitical risks [66].