2 Sep 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update SANY Heavy (600031 CH) Expect a better 2H24E but consensus remains high; Maintain HOLD During the post-results call, SANY Heavy (SANY) remained positive on the overseas outlook despite the recent weakness of excavators in Europe and the US. SANY expects the sales in the US to see potential stabilisation in 2025E, while the growth in emerging countries will continue to be strong. For 2H24E, SANY expects China's sales to stabilize ...

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of US$336.50, reflecting a 30.9% upside from the current price of US$257.01 [4][8] Core Insights - Salesforce reported a total revenue growth of 8% YoY to US$9.33 billion in 2QFY25, aligning with consensus estimates, while non-GAAP operating income increased by 16% YoY to US$3.14 billion, exceeding consensus by 6% due to effective expense management [2][3] - cRPO growth reaccelerated to +11% YoY on a constant currency basis, driven by strong multi-cloud large deals and early renewals, easing investor concerns regarding decelerating RPO growth [2][3] - Management anticipates a sustained measured buying environment, guiding total revenue for 3QFY25E to grow by 7% YoY to US$9.31-9.36 billion, while maintaining FY25E revenue guidance of US$37.7-38.0 billion (+8-9% YoY) [2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at US$37.8 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach US$9.7 billion, translating to an adjusted EPS of US$9.94 [3][10] - Non-GAAP operating margin guidance for FY25E has been raised to 32.8%, up from the previous 32.5%, reflecting efficiency gains from disciplined expense control [2][3][7] - The number of paid Data Cloud customers grew by 130% YoY, with AI-related bookings more than doubling QoQ, indicating strong demand for Salesforce's AI offerings [2][3] Segment Performance - Revenue growth by segment in 2QFY25 showed increases of 9% in sales, 10% in service, 9% in platform & other, 6% in marketing & commerce, and 13% in integration & analytics [2][3] - Multi-cloud deals accounted for approximately 80% of new business in 2QFY25, highlighting the importance of multi-cloud adoption as a growth driver [2][3] Valuation - The target price of US$336.50 is based on a 20x FY25E EV/EBITDA, which is at a discount to the sector average of 22x, reflecting Salesforce's earnings growth entering a more mature stage [4][8][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a BUY rating to Baozun with a new SOTP-based target price of US$3.20, reflecting a potential upside of 44.1% from the current price of US$2.22 [2][3]. Core Insights - Baozun's 2Q24 results exceeded expectations, with total revenue of RMB2.4 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase, driven by a 9% increase in services revenue. The non-GAAP net loss narrowed to RMB3.9 million from RMB4.4 million in 2Q23, significantly better than the consensus estimate of RMB16.6 million [2]. - The company has seen a turnaround in its E-commerce segment, with positive year-over-year growth after ten consecutive quarters of contraction, supported by strong growth in Douyin-related business and exclusive distribution services [2]. - The management anticipates continued improvement in the second half of 2024, despite challenges in offline traffic affecting the Baozun Brand Management segment [2]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, total revenue is expected to grow by 10% for Baozun Brand Management (BBM) and 4.5% for Baozun E-commerce (BEC). The non-GAAP operating loss for BBM is projected to narrow to RMB170 million, while the overall non-GAAP operating loss for Baozun is expected to reduce to RMB2.8 million [2][6]. - The report outlines a financial outlook with revenue projections of RMB9.35 billion for FY24E, reflecting a 6.1% year-over-year growth, and an adjusted net profit forecast of a loss of RMB68.3 million [6][10]. Valuation Metrics - The SOTP valuation includes RMB501 million for BEC based on a 3.0x 2024E EV/EBIT multiple and RMB139 million for BBM based on a 0.1x 2024E EV/sales multiple, along with RMB2.9 billion in net cash [2][7]. - The report applies a 60% holding discount to the group-level valuation, indicating expectations for enhanced shareholder returns to unlock net cash value [2][7].

29 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Li Auto Inc. (LI US) Proven resilience gives us confidence in BEVs Li Auto's 2Q24 operating expenses beat our forecast and such cost control could extend into 2H24. We are of the view that Li Auto has made a comeback on sales volume with resilient pricing and margins. Although some investors may wait for more details of its new BEVs, we think it could be oversold now. 2Q24 beat on tightened operating expenses. Li Auto's revenue ...

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Outperform" for the next 12 months, indicating expected performance above market benchmarks [10]. Core Insights - NVIDIA reported a quarterly revenue of $30 billion for 2QFY25, a year-on-year increase of 122.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.3%, surpassing management guidance and Bloomberg consensus [1][4]. - The data center business remains the primary growth driver, contributing $26.3 billion, which is 87.5% of total sales, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.4% [1][5]. - NVIDIA anticipates a revenue of $32.5 billion for 3QFY25, reflecting an 8.2% quarter-on-quarter growth, higher than Bloomberg's consensus [1][4]. - The company is focusing on the delayed shipment of the Blackwell series, expected to ramp up production in Q4, which is projected to contribute billions in revenue [1][5]. - NVIDIA's gross margin guidance remains stable at around 75% for the year, despite concerns regarding the impact of Blackwell's delays [1][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - NVIDIA's 2QFY25 revenue reached $30 billion, with a gross margin of 75.7%, slightly above guidance [1][4]. - The data center segment's revenue was $26.3 billion, with a significant year-on-year growth of 154% [5][6]. - The company achieved a net profit of $16.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 168.2% [4][6]. Business Segments Performance - Data center revenue accounted for 87.5% of total sales, with compute revenue contributing $22.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 162.5% [5][6]. - Gaming and professional visualization segments showed modest growth, with gaming revenue at $2.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [6][7]. - Automotive revenue reached $346 million, with a year-on-year growth of 36.8% [6][7]. Future Outlook - NVIDIA expects continued strong demand for AI computing, with major cloud providers' capital expenditures projected to grow significantly [1][5]. - The company has approved an additional $50 billion stock buyback program, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [1][5]. - The anticipated strong demand for the Blackwell series is expected to drive substantial growth in the data center business into next year [1][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 106.4, unchanged from previous assessments [2][3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in the first half of 2024, with revenue increasing by 38% year-on-year to RMB 8.3 billion, and net profit rising by 108% to RMB 0.987 billion, driven by improved gross margins and cost optimization [2][3]. - The growth was attributed to robust demand in artificial intelligence, upgrades in Eagle Stream, stable automotive orders, inventory replenishment in consumer electronics, and expanded profit margins [2][3]. - However, a slowdown in consumer electronics demand is anticipated in the second half of 2024, with revenue and net profit for the first half expected to account for 52% and 56% of the full-year forecasts, respectively [2][3]. Revenue Summary - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 16.051 billion for FY24E, with a year-on-year growth of 19% [13]. - The gross profit is projected to be RMB 4.091 billion, with a gross margin of 25.5% [13]. - Net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 1.762 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26% [13]. Segment Performance - The PCB segment, which accounts for 58% of sales, grew by 25% year-on-year, while the substrate segment saw a remarkable 94% increase [2]. - The PCBA business also performed well, with a 42% year-on-year growth, benefiting from increased PCB sales [2]. Financial Projections - The report projects a revenue of RMB 18.216 billion for FY25E and RMB 20.813 billion for FY26E, indicating continued growth [13]. - The net profit is expected to rise to RMB 2.174 billion in FY25E and RMB 2.791 billion in FY26E [13]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a forward P/E ratio of approximately 30 times for FY24, which is considered reasonable compared to the historical average of 32.5 times [2][3]. - The report highlights that the estimated gross margin for the second half of 2024 will return to around 25%, influenced by weakening demand and rising raw material costs [3].

Proya 化妆品 (603605 CH) 同行中的最佳收益 ， 强劲势头持续 普雅（Proya）在2024年第二季度的业绩超出市场预期，收入和净利润分别同比增 长41%和37%，上半年整体收入和净利润分别同比增长37.9%和40.5%，主要得益于 核心品牌的销售加速增长，达到37.7%的年同比增速。其盈利排名同行业之首。202 4年上半年的毛利率下降了0.7个百分点，稳定在69.8%，同时销售费用比率增加了3 个百分点至47%，这是由于618促销周期的延长、单个直播营销成本持续上升以及高 电子商务退货率等因素的影响。全年指引方面，公司计划维持毛利率在约70%的水 平，并保持净利润率略为上升的趋势。维持"买入"评级，目标价调整至人民币133.86 元，基于2024年预测市盈率为35倍。 英雄 SKU 的表现优于持续受益的收益。 Proya 继续 目标价格 RMB133.86 (上一个 TP RMB135.57) 上 / 下 55.8% 当前价格 RMB85 .90 中国消费必需品 张苗族 (852) 3761 8910 张庙 @ cmbi. com. hk Bella LI (852) 3757 6202 b ...

MN Proya Cosmetics (603605 CH) Best earnings among peers, strong momentum sustained Proya's 2Q24 results beat consensus with revenue/net profit +41%/37% YoY (1H24 revenue/net profit +37.9/40.5% YoY), mostly contributed by the accelerated sales growth of main brand to 37.7% YoY. The earnings ranked the top among peers. 1H24 GPM dropped by 0.7 ppt. and steadied at 69.8%, accompanied by the 3 ppt. increase in selling expense ratio to 47%, due to the prolonged 618 promotion cycle, continuous rise in unit cost o ...

CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update MN Shennan Circuit (002916 CH) Earnings Summary SCC released 1H24 results. Revenue went up by 38% YoY to RMB8.3bn, with double-digit growth across all segments (PCB/Substrate/PCBA: 25%/94%/42% YoY). NP increased by 108% YoY to RMB987mn, on higher GPM (26.2% in 1H24 vs. 22.9%/23.8% in 1H/2H23) and cost optimization. SCC delivered strong 1H24 results, driven by 1) strong AI demand, 2) Eagle Stream upgrades, 3) robust auto orders, 4) inventory ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Intron Tech with a target price of HK$2.35, down from the previous target of HK$5.53, reflecting a significant potential upside from the current price of HK$1.2 [4][13]. Core Insights - Intron Tech reported revenue of RMB 2.84 billion for the first half of fiscal year 2024, representing an 8% year-on-year increase, but net profit decreased by 37% to RMB 977 million due to increased competition and pricing pressure from automotive OEMs, leading to a gross margin decline to 15.9% [1][2]. - The management expects a recovery in net profit margins in the second half of fiscal year 2024, driven by new orders in the new energy and ADAS sectors, as well as expansion into overseas markets [2][4]. - The report has adjusted earnings per share forecasts for fiscal years 2024 and 2025 down by 43%-49% due to the weak performance in the first half of 2024 and anticipated cost pressures [2][4]. Revenue Summary - Intron Tech's revenue is projected to grow by 9% year-on-year in fiscal year 2024, while net profit is expected to decline by 29% [2][12]. - The revenue breakdown shows strong growth in the new energy (16%), automation and connectivity (13%), and cloud server segments (25%), while body control, safety, and powertrain segments experienced weaker growth [1][11]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 15.9%, down from 20.6% in the same period last year, reflecting pressures in the automotive supply chain [1][12]. Financial Projections - For fiscal year 2024, revenue is estimated at RMB 6.32 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 1.02 billion and a net profit of RMB 225 million [9][10]. - The projected earnings per share for fiscal year 2024 is RMB 0.21, with a significant decrease from previous estimates [10][12]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profit margins in fiscal year 2025, with net profit expected to rise to RMB 371 million [2][9]. Valuation Metrics - Intron Tech's current price-to-earnings ratios are 5.4x for fiscal year 2024 and 3.2x for fiscal year 2025, which are considered attractive compared to industry peers [2][13]. - The report highlights that Intron Tech is undervalued, especially given its high return on equity (ROE) levels [13].