Zhao Yin Guo Ji

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做难的事,做对的事
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-15 16:00
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 161.42 RMB [1][126]. Core Insights - The company, United Imaging Healthcare, has established itself as a leading player in China's medical equipment sector, with a comprehensive product line covering CT, MR, MI, RT, XR, and life science instruments. The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.9% in revenue from 2019 to 2023 [1][20]. - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of the Chinese medical equipment market and the trend of domestic substitution, while also continuing to explore overseas markets [1][20]. - United Imaging has maintained high R&D investment, with a research expense ratio of 18.4% in the first nine months of 2023, and has made significant technological breakthroughs, positioning itself among the top international players in high-end medical equipment [1][20][28]. Summary by Sections Comprehensive Product Line - United Imaging has launched over 100 types of large medical equipment, including MR, CT, XR, MI, RT, and life science instruments, with 43 products certified by the FDA and CE [1][8]. - The company has broken the monopoly of international brands in the high-end medical equipment market, achieving significant market share growth in CT and MR products [1][10][11]. Market Expansion - The domestic market for large medical equipment is expected to grow significantly, with the per capita ownership of CT and MR equipment in China still low compared to developed countries [1][15]. - The relaxation of large medical equipment configuration management in China is anticipated to stimulate demand for mid-to-high-end equipment, benefiting leading domestic companies like United Imaging [1][15][17]. International Growth - The company has seen a CAGR of 121.8% in overseas revenue from 2019 to 2022, with overseas revenue accounting for 13.8% of total revenue in the first nine months of 2023 [1][13][14]. - United Imaging has established a presence in over 60 countries, including the US, Japan, and Australia, and is building a robust global service and operational system [1][14][110]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 114.1 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, with a projected revenue CAGR of 25.7% from 2023 to 2026 [1][18][117]. - The net profit for 2023 is expected to reach 19.7 billion RMB, with a CAGR of 24.4% anticipated from 2023 to 2026 [1][18][117]. R&D and Innovation - United Imaging's R&D investment reached 14.3 billion RMB in the first nine months of 2023, representing 19.2% of revenue, with a focus on maintaining technological leadership in high-end medical equipment [1][28][29]. - The company has developed a range of innovative products, including the first domestic 3.0T MR and 320-slice CT, and continues to push the boundaries of medical imaging technology [1][20][28]. Valuation - The target price of 161.42 RMB corresponds to a P/E ratio of 55 times the expected earnings for 2024, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 9.3% and a perpetual growth rate of 4.0% [1][126][128].
Recent sell-off looks overdone; AirPods production in Vietnam on track in 1H24E
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-14 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for FIT Hon Teng with a target price (TP) of HK$ 2.42, indicating a potential upside of 12.6% from the current price of HK$ 2.15 [5][13]. Core Insights - Recent stock price corrections are viewed as overdone, primarily driven by investor concerns regarding Apple's TWS order allocation. Management has confirmed that the first production line of AirPods in Vietnam began shipments in February 2024, expected to contribute 5-7% of sales in FY24E. By 2025, additional production lines will be added in India, positioning FIT and Luxshare as the two largest AirPods suppliers with a projected market share of 30% and 70% respectively [2][3]. - The management has reiterated a solid outlook for 2024, projecting high-teens revenue growth, over 15% gross profit (GP) and operating profit (OP) growth year-on-year, driven by AirPods, AI server connectors, and the auto business [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from US$ 4,196 million in FY23A to US$ 4,715 million in FY24E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.4%. Net profit is expected to increase significantly from US$ 129.6 million in FY23A to US$ 201.2 million in FY24E, representing a growth of 55.3% [4][11]. - The earnings summary indicates a consistent improvement in profitability metrics, with gross profit margins expected to rise from 19% in FY23A to 20% in FY24E, and operating profit margins increasing from 6.3% to 7.5% over the same period [11][18]. Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers identified include the AirPods production ramp-up, AI server product launches, and consolidation in the auto business, with expected contributions of 5-7% from AirPods, 7-9% from AI server products, and 8% from the auto business in FY24E [3][4]. - The report highlights that the recent share price correction presents a buying opportunity, with the stock trading at attractive valuation multiples of 9.7x and 7.6x for FY24E and FY25E P/E respectively, compared to a historical average of 15x [3][13].
Expect solid earnings growth and enhancing shareholder return in FY24
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-14 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Tencent with a target price of HK$445.0, reflecting a potential upside of 43.7% from the current price of HK$309.60 [10][11]. Core Insights - Tencent is expected to achieve solid earnings growth and enhance shareholder returns in FY24, with a forecasted total revenue increase of 6% YoY to RMB158.6 billion in 1Q24E and a non-IFRS net income growth of 31% YoY to RMB43.1 billion [10][11]. - The company is navigating short-term headwinds in its games business but anticipates recovery in revenue growth in 2Q24E due to new game launches [10][11]. - Advertising revenue is projected to grow by 16% YoY in 1Q24E, driven by strong demand for Video Account ads and improved ad technology [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue (RMB million) for FY22A was 554,552, FY23A was 609,015, and is expected to reach 655,548 in FY24E, reflecting a YoY growth of 7.6% [2]. - Adjusted net profit (RMB million) is forecasted to grow from 157,688 in FY23A to 185,358 in FY24E, representing a YoY growth of 17.5% [2]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 48.1% in FY23A to 49.9% in FY24E [2]. Business Segment Valuation - The valuation for the online games business is set at HK$160.3 based on a 17x 2024E PE, aligning with the average PE of global gaming peers [5]. - The fintech business is valued at HK$85.4 based on a 4.0x 2024E PS, reflecting Tencent's strong position in China's digital payment market [6]. - The advertising business is valued at HK$79.4 based on a 19x 2024E PE, consistent with industry averages [14]. Strategic Investments - Tencent's strategic investments are valued at HK$62.0, applying a 30% holding company discount to the fair value of its equity investments [15]. - The report highlights Tencent's significant stakes in various companies, contributing to its overall valuation [19].
Driving long-term growth while enhancing shareholder return
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-10 16:00
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of US$131.9 per ADS [1][7] Core Views - Alibaba is expected to deliver in-line-with-consensus revenue growth for 4QFY24, with estimated revenue of RMB221.4bn, up 6% YoY [1] - The company is focusing on long-term growth through investments in international business, cloud, and Taobao and Tmall (T&T) Group, despite short-term margin pressure [1] - Alibaba is committed to improving shareholder return through loss reduction in non-core businesses, enhanced share buyback, and dividend payout [1] - The strategic move to drive an integrated group strategy is expected to enhance long-term value [1] Financial Performance - For 4QFY24, group-level adjusted EBITA is forecasted to decline 5% YoY to RMB24.0bn, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 10.8% [1] - T&T Group's adjusted EBITA is expected to decline 1.5% YoY to RMB38.5bn, implying a margin of 42.1% [1] - Customer management revenue growth is forecasted at 3% YoY in 4QFY24, driven by 7% YoY GMV growth from T&T GMV [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue for FY24E is estimated at RMB940.7bn, with FY25E and FY26E revenues projected at RMB1,027.6bn and RMB1,117.5bn, respectively [2][4] - Adjusted net profit for FY24E is forecasted at RMB155.5bn, with FY25E and FY26E projections at RMB158.2bn and RMB175.2bn, respectively [4] - Gross margin for FY24E is estimated at 37.8%, with FY25E and FY26E margins projected at 38.0% [4] Valuation and Shareholder Return - The SOTP-based target price is US$131.9 per ADS, translating into 15.7x FY24E P/E [7] - Alibaba is enhancing shareholder return through an integrated group strategy, including investments in international business and cloud infrastructure [1] - The next key event for shareholder return will likely be the announcement of annual fiscal year dividends in May [1] Segment Valuation - Taobao and Tmall Group is valued at US$59.1 per ADS, based on 7.0x FY24E EV/adjusted EBITA [8] - Cloud Intelligence Group is valued at US$24.4 per ADS, based on a 4.2x EV/S multiple on FY24E revenue [8] - Cainiao is valued at US$2.6 per ADS, based on the latest valuation given by Alibaba to repurchase Cainiao shares from minority shareholders [8] Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at RMB940.7bn, with gross profit of RMB356.0bn [4] - Operating profit for FY24E is forecasted at RMB113.7bn, with net profit of RMB89.9bn [13] - Adjusted net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB155.5bn, with an adjusted net profit margin of 16.5% [4]
Renewed agreement with Blizzard; expect games revenue growth to reaccelerate in 2H24E
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-10 16:00
11 Apr 2024 Renewed agreement with Blizzard; expect games revenue growth to reaccelerate in 2H24E NetEase on 10 Apr announced the renewal of publishing agreement with Blizzard Entertainment to bring Blizzard game titles back to China. Popular titles such as World of Warcraft, Hearthstone, and Diablo will return to the Chinese market sequentially starting in summer 2024. NetEase also reached an agreement with Microsoft to bring NetEase titles to Xbox and other platforms. We expect the return of Blizzard game ...
1Q24 shipment rebound on track; Auto & IoT as next growth drivers
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-10 16:00
11 Apr 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Q-Tech (1478 HK) 1Q24 shipment rebound on track; Auto & IoT as next growth drivers We recently spoke to Q-Tech's mgmt. and we maintain our positive view on high-end Android recovery to drive ASP/shipment upside in FY24E. Q-tech also expected GPM improvement in 1H24E thanks to better product mix and easing competition. For 1Q24, Q-Tech posted impressive growth of 23%/179% YoY in mobile/non-mobile CCM shipment, th ...
Improving fundamentals with BaaS initiatives
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-10 16:00
M N 11 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update GigaCloud (GCT US) Improving fundamentals with BaaS initiatives Target Price US$46.00 After short-term stock price volatility on insider filings, we suggest investors to (Previous TP US$43.00) refocus on GigaCloud (GCT)’s strong organic growth and fundamentals Up/Downside 45.6% improvement. We expect GCT to deliver another eye-catching 1Q24E, with topline accelerating to +96% YoY (5% above high-end of guidance) and bottom Cu ...
Expect mild ads revenue growth in 1Q24
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-10 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Baidu with a target price of US$183.20, slightly adjusted from the previous target of US$186.20, indicating a potential upside of 77.8% from the current price of US$103.05 [2][3]. Core Insights - Baidu Core is expected to achieve mild ads revenue growth in 1Q24, primarily driven by strong performance in travel and e-commerce sectors, although this is partially offset by weaker offline verticals due to macroeconomic conditions [2]. - The company is focusing on investing in generative AI opportunities to enhance long-term revenue and earnings growth while improving operational efficiency in non-core businesses [2]. - The pace of monetization for generative AI-related ads and cloud revenue is identified as a key catalyst for future growth [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 1Q24, Baidu Core is estimated to generate revenue of RMB23.5 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase, but 3% below Bloomberg consensus estimates [2]. - The forecast for Baidu Core ads revenue is RMB16.9 billion, also up 2% year-over-year, driven by travel and e-commerce, but impacted by weaker offline performance post-Chinese New Year [2]. - Non-GAAP operating profit for 1Q24 is projected at RMB5.1 billion, down 5% year-over-year, resulting in a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 21.8% [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Baidu are as follows: RMB141.6 billion for FY24E, RMB150.9 billion for FY25E, and RMB159.4 billion for FY26E, with slight downward revisions compared to previous estimates [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be RMB27.0 billion for FY24E, with a decrease in growth rate due to increased investments in AI [6]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24E is forecasted at RMB27.0 billion, reflecting a 6% decrease from the previous year [3][6]. Valuation Breakdown - The SOTP-based valuation of US$183.2 per ADS includes: - US$68.1 for Baidu Core ads based on a 7.0x 2024E non-GAAP PE - US$1.8 for Apollo ASD based on a 2.0x 2030E revenue - US$35.2 for Baidu Cloud based on a 4.3x 2024E PS - US$65.0 in net cash - US$13.2 for iQIYI and other investments, applying a 30% holding discount [7][9].
美国经济:CPI连续超预期降低6月降息概率
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-10 16:00
2024 年 4 月 11 日 美国经济 由于能源和核心服务价格持续反弹,3 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 环比增速连续三个月高 于市场预期,CPI 同比增速延续回升。房价和房贷利率回升令部分购房者转向租 房市场,独栋住宅房租增速仍然过快,制约房租通胀回落。但近期利率回升将逐 渐抑制房价涨幅,且新房待售数已升至新高,预计独栋住宅租金涨幅将温和回 落。通胀数据公布后,2 年国债收益率最高上升近 30BP 至 4.96%,10 年国债收 益率上升近 15BP 至 4.5%,收益率曲线倒挂程度扩大;美元指数走强,美股走 弱。货币市场预期 6 月美联储降息概率从超 55%下降至 18%,全年下降 40BP。 近期火热的通胀数据可能使美联储重新思考利率限制性不足的风险,6 月降息概 率和年内降息幅度将大幅下降。预计首次降息时间可能推迟至 9 月,全年降息幅 度 50 个基点左右。由于通胀持续超预期,我们将年末 10 年国债收益率的预测从 3.8%上调至 4%。新公布会议纪要显示多数票委认为将很快开始缩减 QT 规模至 目前的一半,预计联储将在 6 月开始将每月国债 QT 上限减半至 300 亿美金,同 时维持 MBS 每 ...
Continued outperformance during Qingming
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-09 16:00
M N 10 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Continued outperformance during Qingming Target Price HK$26.10 The three-day Qingming Festival holiday embraced booming demand, with (Previous TP HK$26.10) domestic tourist trips +11.5% and tourism revenue +12.7% (both vs. the Up/Downside 23.7% 2019 level), according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Tongcheng Current Price HK$21.10 Travel (TC) kept its strong momentum during the Qingming Fest ...