Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the continuous decline of SCFIS, some liner companies are still pushing up freight rates in mid - early April. The market atmosphere is bullish under the multi - empty game, and the market is oscillating at a relatively high level. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][3]. - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US may have repeated tariff policies towards Canada, Mexico, Europe, etc., which will add a major disturbing factor to the future shipping trend [3]. - It is necessary to focus on the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under radical tariff policies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On March 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1506.17 points, down 3.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1260.05 points, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On March 21, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 870.75 points, up 0.51% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 871.91 points, up 0.62% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1017.39 points, down 1.01% from the previous period [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price on March 21 was 1292.75 points, down 26.59 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1306 USD/TEU, down 6.5% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1152.74 USD/FEU, down 8.5% from the previous period [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index on March 21 was 1147.76 points, down 3.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1586.66 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 859.97 points, down 6.9% from the previous period [2]. - On March 24, the main contract 2506 closed at 2072.0, with a 0.31% increase, a trading volume of 45,600 lots, and an open interest of 43,100 lots, a decrease of 954 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's February manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 47.3, the previous value was 46.6; the eurozone's February services PMI preliminary value was 50.7, a 3 - month low; the eurozone's February composite PMI preliminary value was 50.2, the same as the previous value. The eurozone's February Sentix investor confidence index was - 12.7, with an expected value of - 16.3 [2]. - China's January manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month. China's January Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.1, the previous value was 50.5, remaining above the boom - bust line for the fourth consecutive month [3]. - The US February S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.6, an 8 - month high; the US February S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 49.7, a 25 - month low; the US February S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 50.4, a 17 - month low [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long on the 2508 contract in the 1900 - 2000 range for a rebound of the peak - season contract, and set a stop - loss [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the repeated geopolitical conflicts and the basically determined tariff policies, the arbitrage structure is currently chaotic, with a short window period and large fluctuations. All positions have been advised to take profits [3]. - Long - term strategy: The far - month contracts are currently at a large discount. All positions have been advised to take profits. It is recommended to wait until the price war situation in March becomes clear and the far - month contracts are adjusted to an appropriate price before making a layout [3]. Other Information - Houthi rebels attacked Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport and the US "Harry Truman" aircraft carrier on March 23, causing the airport to suspend flights for half an hour [3]. - US President Trump has frequently introduced trade - protectionist measures, which has raised concerns about the global economic outlook and may disrupt the global economic and trade order and damage Europe [3].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 3 月 25 日星期二 · 516519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-3-25） | | | | 铁矿：八一钢铁、昆仑钢铁、闽新钢铁、昆玉钢铁等钢厂发布消息称， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 为推动新疆钢铁行业减量发展，自 3 月 24 日起，粗钢日产量减少 10%， | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 受此消息影响，黑色板块集体反弹。钢厂盈利率持平，检修高炉陆续复 | | | | | 产，日均铁水产量继续环比小幅回升，铁矿受到去库支撑，但上升空间 | | | | | 较为有限。铁矿走势在宏观预期和现实间来回揉搓，基于远月有粗钢限 | | | | | 产及铁矿投产预期压制，稳健的投资者仍可关注铁矿石 05-09 正套操作。 | | | | | 煤焦：焦炭供应过剩的格局未改，市场传闻山西煤矿下调任务量，供应 | | | | | 收缩预期，焦企开工率稳定，部分焦企因亏损减产，但整体供应量依然 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 较高。尽管铁水产量有所增加，但对焦炭需求的拉动作用有限。钢厂利 | | ...