Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weak [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500: Fluctuation [4] - CSI 1000: Fluctuation [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Fluctuation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Correction [4] - Silver: Correction [4] - Soybean oil: Fluctuation [6] - Palm oil: Fluctuation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean meal: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean No. 1: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Rubber: Fluctuation with a bearish bias [6] - Pulp: Weak fluctuation [8] - Logs: Weak fluctuation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Buy on dips [8] - Plastic: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [8] - PP: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [10] - PVC: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [10] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff policy has disrupted the market, causing increased volatility in commodities. The US has imposed a 104% tariff on China, leading to a short-term bearish sentiment. The export order index of China's manufacturing industry in March continued to rise but remained in the contraction range, which will restrict the export of steel products and downstream products and drag down raw material demand [2]. - The geopolitical situation and high-interest rate environment are changing the pricing mechanism of gold. The global central bank's gold purchases are the key factor, reflecting the "decentralization" and hedging demand. Although the geopolitical risk has marginally decreased, Trump's tariff policy has intensified global trade tensions, and the market's hedging demand remains strong [4]. - The soybean production in South America is expected to be a record high, but some institutions have lowered the forecast for Brazil's soybean production. The increase in soybean imports in China in April may ease the tight supply situation. The inventory of the three major oils is at a high level, and the supply is abundant. It is expected that the oils will fluctuate in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The global iron ore shipment is expected to increase, and the supply is in a loose state. The profitability of steel enterprises has improved, and the daily average pig iron output has increased slightly. However, the export demand is weak. The iron ore price is affected by the macro - expectation and the reality. Conservative investors can consider the 05 - 09 positive spread operation of iron ore, and the 09 contract can be used as a long - term short allocation [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: China has increased the tariff on imported coking coal from the US. The import of coking coal from the US is expected to decrease, and imports from Mongolia, Russia, and Australia will increase to replace it. The coke supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the coking enterprises' inventory pressure has increased. The coking coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rebar**: The mutual tariff increase is bearish for the black industry. Although there may be positive stimuli in China, it is difficult to reverse the situation. The rebar is at a neutral valuation level, and the valley - electricity cost supports the price. The production and demand of rebar are both increasing, but the demand recovery is slow. It is expected that the production will gradually increase in April [2]. - **Glass**: The production and sales in Shahe have declined significantly. The production has increased slightly from a low level, and the production profit has shrunk. The demand in the glass industry is seasonally increasing, and inventory reduction in April is expected. The short - term tariff policy is bearish for the market [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw gains in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Central Peripheral Work Conference emphasized building a peripheral community with a shared future. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff rate on US - imported goods. The external market has stabilized, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has eased. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond has decreased, and the market funds are stable. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the net回笼 was 11.1 billion yuan. It is expected that the Treasury bond price will rise [4]. - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting. Although the geopolitical risk has decreased, Trump's tariff policy has increased the market's hedging demand. The physical gold demand in China has increased significantly. The short - term trade war and inflation expectations support the gold price [4]. Oils and Fats - **Oils**: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the seasonal production - increasing cycle. The market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory to rise for the first time in six months. The soybean production in South America is expected to be a record high, but the tariff policy may affect the trade pattern. The inventory of the three major oils is at a high level, and it is expected that the oils will fluctuate in the short term [6]. - **Meals**: China's counter - tariff on US goods may lead to a decline in US soybean exports. However, the US bio - energy policy and the reduction in planting area support the demand for US soybean crushing. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans will occupy the Chinese market. It is expected that the tight supply of soybean meal will ease in the later stage [6]. Other Commodities - **Rubber**: The global natural rubber supply is entering the production - increasing period, and the import arrival has increased the inventory pressure. The downstream consumption is affected by the tariff dispute. The demand side shows signs of further weakening, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will show a weak - fluctuation trend in the short term [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has continued to decline. The external price of pulp provides cost support, but the demand side is weak. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at the port has increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The spot market price is running steadily, and it is expected that the logs will mainly fluctuate [8]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR**: The US suspension of taxation on some countries supports the short - term rebound of oil prices. The load of domestic PX has continued to decline, and the PTA load has fluctuated. The raw materials of PTA have temporarily stopped falling, and the supply and demand of PTA are not bad in the short term. The domestic MEG load has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. The polyester load has rebounded. It is expected that these products will follow the oil price fluctuations [8]. - **PF**: The oil price has rebounded, but the terminal orders are insufficient, and the market sentiment is bearish. It is expected that the polyester staple fiber market will narrow - range consolidate in the near future [8]. - **Plastic, PP, PVC**: The cost of plastic and PP is affected by the rise in oil prices. The supply of plastic is under pressure, and the downstream start - up is recovering. The price of PP is affected by the cancellation of some tariffs and the rise in oil prices. The cost of PVC is stable, the upstream and downstream start - up has increased slightly, and the short - term inventory has decreased. It is expected that these products will fluctuate with a bullish bias [8][10].

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Trade war continues to intensify, pessimism in the US line deepens, pushing the market down; current operation is difficult, risk - takers can wait for rebound opportunities [1] - The core logic this year depends on international tariff policies; in April, the US may change tariff policies, which adds uncertainties to the shipping market; shipping companies want to support prices, but price wars between alliances are inevitable [3] - Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in Q2 and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3] - After the trade - war - driven bearish sentiment and bearish funds enter the market, the container shipping index futures fluctuate at a low level; future attention should focus on tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On April 7, SCFIS (European route) was 1422.42 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1129.45 points, up 3.7% [2] - On March 28, NCFI (composite index) was 983.01 points, up 12.89% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 866.25 points, down 0.65%; NCFI (US West route) on April 3 was 1524.4 points, up 49.83% [2] - On April 3, SCFI (composite index) was 1392.78 points, up 35.90 points; SCFI (European route) was 1336 USD/TEU, up 1.4%; SCFI (US West route) was 2313 USD/FEU, up 6.2% [2] - On April 3, CCFI (composite index) was 1102.71 points, down 0.8%; CCFI (European route) was 1507.27 points, down 1.3%; CCFI (US West route) was 776.61 points, down 3.6% [2] PMI Data - Eurozone's March manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 48.2), service PMI was 50.4 (expected 51), and composite PMI was 50.4 (February: 50.2, highest since August) [2] - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points; Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in three months [3] - US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (3 - month low), service PMI was 54.3 (3 - month high), and composite PMI was 53.5 (3 - month high) [3] Futures Market - On April 8, the 2506 main contract closed at 1767.0, down 8.32%, with a trading volume of 74,200 lots and an open interest of 32,800 lots, an increase of 2717 lots from the previous day [3] Strategies - Short - term: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract drops below 1900 points and the 2510 contract drops below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage: In the context of tariff fermentation, pay attention to the reverse - spread structure, with a short window period and high volatility [4] - Long - term: Currently, the far - month contracts are at a large discount; all positions have been suggested to take profit. Wait for the price war situation to be clear in April and then make arrangements when the far - month contracts reach appropriate prices [4] Other Information - On April 7, the Houthi armed forces attacked Israeli and US military targets; the US and Israel have not responded [5] - The US threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China on April 7; China firmly opposes it and will take counter - measures if the measure is implemented [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weak [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatility [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatility [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Volatility [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatility [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Upward [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [3] - Gold: Correction [3] - Silver: Correction [3] - Soybean oil: Weakly volatile [6] - Palm oil: Weakly volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatility [6] - Rubber: Weakly volatile [6] - Pulp: Weakly volatile [7] - Log: Weakly volatile [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Wait - and - see [7] - MEG: Wait - and - see [7] - PR: Wait - and - see [7] - PF: Buy on dips [7] - Plastic: Weakly volatile [7] - PP: Weakly volatile [8] - PVC: Weakly volatile [8] Core Viewpoints - The global trade situation is tense due to Trump's tariff policies, which have a negative impact on various industries, especially the black metal and export - related industries. However, China has a series of policy tools in reserve to stabilize the economy and the capital market [2][3]. - The prices of most commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and policy. For example, the supply of iron ore is expected to increase, while the demand is restricted; the coal - coke industry is adjusting its supply sources; the real estate - related glass and building materials industries are affected by demand recovery and policy [2][3][7]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to be supported by policy, and the bond market shows different trends according to different maturities. The price of precious metals is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, interest rates, and demand [3]. - The agricultural and oil - fat markets are affected by factors such as seasonal production, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. For example, the palm oil is in the production - increasing season, and the soybean market is affected by planting area, inventory, and trade tariffs [6]. Summary by Categories Black Metal Industry - **Iron ore**: The global trade situation restricts the export of steel products and downstream products, dragging down the demand for raw materials. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, and the daily molten iron output has a limited upward space. Stable investors can consider the 05 - 09 positive spread operation of iron ore and the long - term short allocation of the 09 contract [2]. - **Coal - coke**: The increase in tariffs on imported coal from the US will lead to a decrease in imports from the US and an increase in imports from other countries. The supply of coke is still in an over - supply pattern, and the coal - coke market generally follows the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rebar**: The mutual increase in tariffs is negative for the black metal industry. Although there may be domestic stimulus policies, it is difficult to reverse the situation. The demand for rebar is in a weak recovery stage, and the price may hit a new low in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: The production and sales in Shahe have declined, and the production is expected to increase slightly. The demand is in a seasonal recovery, and the price of the 2505 contract is under pressure [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index**: The previous trading day's stock index fell, but future policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and fiscal stimulus are expected to support the capital market. The agricultural sector has capital inflows, and the stock index is expected to be stable [3]. - **Treasury bond**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has decreased, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The 2 - year Treasury bond shows a volatile trend, while the 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds are expected to rise [3]. - **Precious metals**: The price of gold is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, interest rates, and demand. Although the logic of the previous price increase has not completely reversed, the short - term price is under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The price of silver also shows a correction trend [3]. Agricultural and Oil - Fat Market - **Oil - fat**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing season, and the inventory is expected to rise. The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to increase, and the overall supply of the three major oils is abundant. The price of oils is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Oil - meal**: The US soybean faces export risks, but the domestic supply of soybeans is expected to improve. The demand for downstream products is cautious, and the price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The export of Brazilian new soybeans is accelerating, and the supply of domestic soybeans is expected to increase. The price is expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather and trade policies [6]. Other Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by the tariff dispute. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Pulp**: The cost of pulp is strongly supported, but the demand from the papermaking industry is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7]. - **Log**: The supply pressure of logs is decreasing, and the inventory is being reduced. The price is expected to be mainly volatile [7]. - **Chemical Products**: The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, and PR are affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and trade policies, and are generally in a wait - and - see state. The price of PF is expected to be weak in the short term, and the prices of plastic, PP, and PVC are expected to be weakly volatile [7][8].

欧元区3月制造业PM1初值为48.7，预期48.2; 3月服务业PM1初值为50.4，预期51。欧元区3月综合PM1初值升至50.4, 2月为50.2，为8月以来最 高。欧元区3月Sentix投资者信心指数为-2.9,预期-8.4,前值-12.7。 2月中国制造业采购经理指数（PM）为50.2%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，制造业景气水平明显回升。中国2月财新制造业PMI 50.8，近三个月最 高,用工收缩率明显放缓。 美国 3 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初值录得49.8, 为 3 个月以来新低。美国 3 月标普全球服务业 PMI 初值录得 54.3, 为 3 个月以来新高。美国 3 月 标普全球综合 PMI 初值录得 53.5, 为 3个月以来新高。 对于今年核心逻辑的预判在于国际关税政策走向,4月美国将对 加拿大、墨西哥、欧洲等国家的关税政策再出反复,临近美线长 协定价窗口,报复性关税被加入谈判手段,对未来海运走向增加 短期策略:建议风险偏好者可尝试2506合约区间交易(1950- 一个较大的扰动因素,在运价上各船司有意挺价,但绕不开联盟 2450) 上述区间内逢低试多逢高试空,设置好止损。 间的价格战。综 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a container shipping daily report dated March 31, 2025, released by the shipping research team [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The market has a bullish sentiment towards future freight rates, and the market is oscillating at a high level. Risk - takers can attempt a short - term rebound strategy with a light position [2] - The core logic for this year's shipping market lies in international tariff policies. In April, the US will re - evaluate tariff policies with Canada, Mexico, and Europe, adding significant uncertainties to the shipping market [3] - It is necessary to focus on the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3] Group 4: Freight Index Analysis SCFIS and NCFI - On March 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1506.17 points, down 3.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1260.05 points, down 16.4% from the previous period [2] - On March 28, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 983.01 points, up 12.89% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 866.25 points, down 0.65% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1524.4 points, up 49.83% from the previous period [2] SCFI and CCFI - On March 28, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1356.88 points, up 64.13 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1318 USD/TEU, up 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2177 USD/FEU, up 16.3% from the previous period [2] - On March 28, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1111.71 points, down 3.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1526.99 points, down 3.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 806.01 points, down 6.3% from the previous period [2] Group 5: PMI and Investor Confidence Index Eurozone - The Eurozone's March manufacturing PMI flash was 48.7 (expected 48.2); the March services PMI flash was 50.4 (expected 51). The March composite PMI flash rose to 50.4, the highest since August [2] - The Eurozone's March Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous - 12.7) [2] China - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing sentiment. China's February Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in three months, and the employment contraction rate slowed significantly [2] US - The US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 49.8, the lowest in three months; the March services PMI flash was 54.3, the highest in three months; the March composite PMI flash was 53.5, the highest in three months [3] Group 6: Trading Strategies Short - term Strategy - Risk - takers can try to enter the market at the 1900 - 2000 range of the 2508 contract for a short - term rebound in the peak - season contract and set stop - losses [3] Arbitrage Strategy - Due to the recurrence of geopolitical conflicts and the basic determination of tariff policies, the arbitrage structure is currently chaotic, with short windows and large fluctuations. All positions have been advised to take profits [3] Long - term Strategy - All long - term positions in far - month contracts have been advised to take profits. It is recommended to wait until the price war situation in March becomes clear and the far - month contracts adjust to appropriate prices before making new arrangements [3] Group 7: Contract Information - The daily limit for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 16% [3] - The company's margin requirement for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 26% [3] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 100 lots [3] - On March 28, the main contract 2506 closed at 2288.0, up 6.14%, with a trading volume of 64,100 lots and an open interest of 34,800 lots, an increase of 811 lots from the previous day [3] Group 8: Geopolitical and Policy Factors - The US trade protectionist policies introduced by Trump have increased global economic uncertainties, and the US - EU trade war may harm both sides [4] - The Palestine - Israel conflict continues, and the delay in the cease - fire agreement negotiation adds uncertainties to the shipping market [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Decline [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Decline [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Copper: First decline then rise [4] - Aluminum: Oscillation and consolidation [6] - Zinc: Oscillation and rebound [6] - Nickel: Oscillation and bottom - building [6] - Lithium carbonate: Bottom - building [6] - Stainless steel: Bottom - building [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a downward bias [6][8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation with a downward bias [8] - Cotton: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Cotton yarn: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Rubber: Weak [8] - Red dates: Oscillation [8] - Sugar: Stop falling and rise [8] - Pulp: Weak - biased oscillation [8] - Logs: Weak - biased oscillation [9] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [9] - PTA: Wide - range oscillation, buy on dips [9] - MEG: Look at the far - month contract [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Buy on dips, focus on processing margin [9] - Plastic: Oscillation [9] - PP: Oscillation [9] - PVC: Oscillation [11] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [11] - Apples: Stable with a downward bias [11] - Corn: Oscillation with a downward bias [11] - Eggs: Oscillation [11] 2. Core Views - The steel industry in Xinjiang reduces daily crude steel production by 10%, leading to a collective rebound in the black sector, with improved steel enterprise profitability and a slight increase in daily hot metal production [2] - The supply - surplus pattern of coke remains unchanged, and the twelfth round of price cuts has been initiated, with coal and coke following the trend of finished products [2] - The black varieties are in the process of near - month position transfer, and the market is oscillating upwards. The demand for rebar is in a weak recovery stage [2] - The glass futures have a short - term rebound, and the market is concerned about the recovery of demand and policy adjustments [2] - The large - state - owned commercial banks' capital replenishment has made substantial progress, and the economy shows a good internal - external balance [4] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the short - term upward trend is expected to continue due to various factors [4] - The copper supply is tight, and the price is expected to first decline then rise [4] - The aluminum price has strong support at the bottom, and the long - term trend is positive [6] - The medium - long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is in the bottom - building stage [6] - The supply of nickel increases, and the price is under pressure in the medium term [6] - The oil market is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and the meal market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [6] - The cotton market is oscillating with an upward bias, and the rubber market has a core upward drive despite inventory concerns [8] - The sugar price is expected to stop falling and rise, and the pulp price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [8] - The log price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation, and the chemical products have different trends [9] - The agricultural products such as live pigs, apples, and corn have different market trends, and the egg price is oscillating at a low level [11] 3. Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by the reduction of steel production in Xinjiang, the black sector rebounds. The steel mill profitability rate is 53.68%, an increase of 25% year - on - year. The daily hot metal production rises to 237.28 tons. Stable investors can focus on the 05 - 09 positive spread operation [2] - **Coal and coke**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The twelfth round of price cuts is initiated, and the market follows the trend of finished products, focusing on the recovery of downstream terminal demand [2] - **Rebar and coil**: The black varieties are in the position transfer period, and the market oscillates upwards. The rebar is at a neutral valuation level, and the demand is in a weak recovery stage [2] - **Glass**: The glass futures have a short - term rebound, and the market is concerned about the recovery of demand and policy adjustments [2] Financial and Precious Metals - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The large - state - owned commercial banks' capital replenishment has made progress, and the economy shows a good internal - external balance. The bullish sentiment declines, and the market oscillates narrowly [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the ten - year Treasury bond is flat, and the market funds are generally stable. The Treasury bonds are in short - term consolidation [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the short - term upward trend is expected to continue due to factors such as geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [4] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper supply is tight, and the price is expected to first decline then rise due to factors such as the reduction of long - term benchmark processing fees [4] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has strong support at the bottom due to supply contraction and cost increase, and the long - term trend is positive [6] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: The medium - long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is in the bottom - building stage. The supply of nickel increases, and the price is under pressure in the medium term [6] Agricultural Products and Oils - **Oils**: The oil market is expected to have wide - range oscillations due to factors such as the potential increase in palm oil export tax and the South American soybean harvest [6] - **Meals**: The meal market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias due to factors such as the South American soybean supply pressure and the expected reduction of new - season US soybean area [6] - **Cotton and Rubber**: The cotton market is oscillating with an upward bias, and the rubber market has a core upward drive despite inventory concerns [8] - **Sugar and Pulp**: The sugar price is expected to stop falling and rise, and the pulp price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [8] - **Logs**: The log price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation due to factors such as inventory changes and price declines [9] Chemical Products - **PX and PTA**: The PX price is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and the PTA price follows the raw material end and can be bought on dips [9] - **MEG and PR**: The MEG has a short - term rebound, and the PR market is in a weak - biased oscillation [9] - **PF and Plastics**: The PF price is expected to be strong - biased, and the plastic and PP markets are oscillating [9] - **PVC**: The PVC market is oscillating, with short - term inventory reduction but still large supply - demand contradictions [11] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The pig price is expected to be weak after the festival, and attention should be paid to the slaughter expectations and large - pig sales [11] - **Apples**: The apple sales are slow during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the market is stable with a downward bias [11] - **Corn**: The corn price breaks through the oscillation range, and it is expected to rise after a short - term callback [11] - **Eggs**: The egg price is oscillating at a low level due to supply and demand factors [11]

2025年3月28日 美运日报 (航运研究小组) 或因缺乏明确交易方向,观望情绪较浓,盘面震荡运行,风险偏好者可尝试轻仓超跌反弹。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 3月24日 | 3月21日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1506.17点, 较上期下跌3.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 870.75点, 较上期上涨0.51% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1260.05点, 较上期下跌16.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 871.91点, 较上期上涨0.62% | | 3月21日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1017.39点, 较上期下跌1.01% | | | 3月21日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1292.75点，较上期下跌26.59点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数) 1147.76点，较上期下跌3.7% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1306USD/TEU,较上期下跌6.5% | 中国出口集装箱运 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Decline [4] - CSI 1000: Decline [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Copper: First decline then rise [6] - Aluminum: Oscillation and consolidation [6] - Zinc: Oscillation and rebound [6] - Nickel: Oscillation and bottom - building [6] - Stainless steel: Bottom - building [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a downward bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation with a downward bias [8] - Cotton: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Cotton yarn: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Rubber: Stop - falling and rebound [8] - White sugar: Stop - falling and rebound [8] - Pulp: Weak - biased oscillation [8] - Log: Weak - biased oscillation [10] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [10] - PTA: Wide - range oscillation, buy on dips [10] - MEG: Rebound in the far - month contract [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Buy on dips, improve processing margin [10] - Plastic: Oscillation [10] - PP: Oscillation [10] - PVC: Oscillation [12] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [12] - Apples: Stable with a downward bias [12] - Corn: Oscillation with a downward bias [12] - Eggs: Oscillation with a downward bias [12] Core Views - The black sector rebounds due to steel mills' production cuts, but the upward space of iron ore is limited, and coal - coke follows the trend of finished products. Rebar and coil are in a neutral valuation, and glass has a short - term rebound with limited space. [2] - Stock index futures show different trends, and the bullish sentiment of bonds weakens with short - term consolidation. Gold is in a strong - biased oscillation due to multiple factors. [4] - Non - ferrous metals have different trends, with copper and aluminum having long - term upward potential, and lithium carbonate and nickel facing pressure. Oils and fats are expected to oscillate widely, and meals are likely to oscillate with a downward bias. [6] - Soft commodities such as cotton and rubber have different trends, and sugar is expected to stop falling and rebound. Pulp is in a weak - biased oscillation. [8] - Energy and chemical products have complex trends, with some suitable for buying on dips and some in oscillation. Agricultural products such as live pigs, apples, corn, and eggs are mostly in an oscillation with a downward bias. [10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Some steel mills in Xinjiang reduce daily crude steel output by 10% since March 24, leading to a collective rebound in the black sector. The steel mill profitability rate is 53.68%, a 25% increase year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output rises to 237.28 tons, but the upward space is limited. Conservative investors can focus on the 05 - 09 positive spread operation of iron ore. [2] - **Coal - coke**: The oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. Some coke enterprises cut production due to losses, but the overall supply is still high. The demand for coke is limited, and the twelfth round of price cuts starts. The raw material demand is under pressure, and it follows the trend of finished products, focusing on the recovery of downstream terminal demand. [2] - **Rebar and coil**: In late March and early April, the pressure of position transfer for near - month contracts of black varieties increases. Rebar is at a neutral valuation, and the valley - electricity cost supports the price. Both production and demand increase, but the demand recovery is slow. The 05 contract has limited upward elasticity, and short - term external tariff policies may affect market sentiment. [2] - **Glass**: The glass futures price rebounds slightly after stabilizing at a low level. The production line is gradually ignited, and the output rebounds slightly. The demand recovers seasonally, and the spot sales rate is high. The short - term 2505 contract rebounds, but the space is restricted by the real - estate completion area and demand improvement. [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day shows different performances of various stock indexes. Office supplies and the pharmaceutical sector have capital inflows, while power - generation equipment and energy - equipment sectors have outflows. The profit of large - scale industrial enterprises improves, but there are still difficulties. The bullish sentiment of stock indexes weakens, and long - positions can be held lightly. [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations, and the market funds are generally stable. The short - term bond market is in consolidation, and the long - term bond yield is flat. [4] - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from real - interest - rate - centered to central - bank - gold - purchase - centered. Due to multiple factors such as debt problems, geopolitical risks, and Chinese physical - gold demand, the gold price is in a strong - biased oscillation. [4] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The policy is positive, and the long - term copper supply is tight. The short - term price is affected by the external environment, showing a trend of first decline then rise. In the long run, the price bottom will rise. [6] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is restricted, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum increases limitedly. The short - term price is affected by tariffs, and the long - term price has upward potential due to energy transformation. [6] - **Lithium carbonate**: The medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is in a bottom - building state. The cost is low, and the supply exceeds demand. [6] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel iron increases, and the downstream demand is affected by infrastructure and real - estate. The medium - term price is under pressure from capacity release and the external environment. [6] Oils and Fats and Meals - **Oils and fats**: Indonesia may increase the export levy of crude palm oil and implement the B40 biodiesel plan. The production of Malaysian palm oil increases, and the export is weak. The supply of domestic soybean oil increases, and the palm - oil inventory is low. The three major oils and fats are expected to oscillate widely. [6] - **Meals**: The harvest and export of Brazilian soybeans accelerate, and the drought in Argentina eases. The supply pressure of South American soybeans and the expected reduction of the new - season US soybean area form a multi - empty situation. The domestic soybean supply is expected to ease in April, and the soybean meal is likely to oscillate with a downward bias. [6] Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: ICE cotton rebounds strongly, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates with an upward bias. The domestic cotton import decreases, and the downstream textile industry is generally stable. The market is sensitive to the planting area, and there will be no significant change before the USDA planting - intention report. [8] - **Rubber**: Shanghai rubber rebounds slightly and continues to consolidate. The import is lower than expected, and the cost supports the price. The demand is expected to increase with the recovery of the automobile market, and the price is expected to stop falling and rebound. [8] - **Sugar**: The domestic and foreign sugar prices are in a low - level weak operation. The sugar trade is temporarily tight, and the domestic supply is relatively loose. The import of syrup and premixed powder decreases, and the price is expected to stop falling and rebound after adjustment. [8] - **Pulp**: The spot price of pulp falls, and the external price is stable. The cost supports the price, but the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly. [8] Energy and Chemical Products - **PX**: The oil price fluctuates narrowly before the US tariff risk in April. The domestic PX load decreases, and the PXN spread oscillates. The PX price is expected to oscillate widely. [10] - **PTA**: The raw material oscillates and rebounds, and the PTA supply - demand is good. It follows the trend of the raw material end, and it is advisable to buy on dips. [10] - **MEG**: The domestic MEG load falls, and the port inventory decreases. The raw material end recovers, and the short - term disk rebounds and repairs. [10] - **PR**: The oil price is strong, but the downstream buying interest is weak. The polyester bottle - chip market may oscillate narrowly. [10] - **PF**: The cost support is strong, and the industry is in a de - stocking state. The short - fiber price is expected to strengthen. [10] - **Plastic**: The spot price of plastic falls, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream start - up is rising, and the 05 contract oscillates. [10] - **PP**: The spot price of PP rises slightly, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream start - up is recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate. [10] - **PVC**: The cost of PVC is stable. The upstream and downstream start - up increases slightly, and the inventory decreases. The supply - demand contradiction is still large, and the price is expected to oscillate. [12] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The supply of feed raw materials is sufficient, and the slaughter volume is supported. The terminal consumption is not significantly improved, and the pig price rebounds briefly but may continue to oscillate weakly. Focus on the pre - Tomb - Sweeping - Festival slaughter and the large - pig selling tide. [12] - **Apples**: The pre - Tomb - Sweeping - Festival stocking atmosphere is general, and the sales are slow. Some fruit farmers are reluctant to sell, and the foreign trade export procurement decreases. [12] - **Corn**: The purchase and sales rotation volume of CCDC increases, but the purchase scale is larger. The wheat - corn price difference narrows, and some traders have the intention to sell. The terminal demand is resilient, and the price may stabilize and rebound. [12] - **Eggs**: The market trading is light at the beginning of the week, and the egg price is under pressure. After the price falls, the trading improves, but the overall demand is average, and the price rise is weak. [12]

2025年3月27日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 或因缺乏明确交易方向,多空博弈持续,盘面震荡运行,风险偏好者可尝试轻仓超跌反弹。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 3月24日 | 3月21日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1506.17点, 较上期下跌3.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 870.75点, 较上期上涨0.51% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1260.05点, 较上期下跌16.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 871.91点, 较上期上涨0.62% | | 3月21日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1017.39点, 较上期下跌1.01% | | | 3月21日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1292.75点，较上期下跌26.59点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1147.76点，较上期下跌3.7% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1306USD/TEU,较上期下跌6.5% | 中国出口集装箱运价 ...