Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) based on the company's mid-term performance, increasing the dividend payout ratio from 50% to 60% for 2025 to 2027, resulting in a 19% increase in the predicted dividend per share [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher expected operating expenses [1] - Earnings per share forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, HKD 2.58, and HKD 2.73 to HKD 2.36, HKD 2.56, and HKD 2.72 for the respective years [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Risks - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a "market perform" rating but warns that if competitors resume dividends and the company's market share continues to weaken, some potential premium may reverse [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised Galaxy Entertainment's dividend payout ratio forecast for 2025 to 2027 to 60% and increased the per-share dividend forecast [1] - Despite slight downward adjustments to EBITDA and earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027, the target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised to HKD 44 [1] - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share, maintaining a "market perform" rating [1] Group 2 - There is a risk of valuation premium decline if competitors resume dividend payouts and Galaxy Entertainment's market share continues to weaken [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecast for Galaxy Entertainment, raising the dividend payout ratio prediction for 2025 to 2027 from 50% to 60%, with a 19% increase in the per-share dividend forecast [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher operating expense expectations [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, 2.58, and 2.73 to HKD 2.36, 2.56, and 2.72 for the respective years [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Outlook - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - Morgan Stanley has assigned a "market perform" rating, but cautions that if competitors resume dividends while Galaxy's market share remains weak, some potential premium may reverse [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年8月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 銀河娛樂集團有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年9月3日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | | 備註： | | | | 銀河娛樂集團有限公司並無法定股本，及其股本並無股份面值。 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00027 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,374,894,550 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue (GGR) reached a post-pandemic high in August, growing 12% year-on-year to MOP 22.2 billion, aligning with market expectations [1] - Compared to pre-pandemic levels, August's gaming revenue has recovered to 91% of the figures [1] - The report suggests that the performance in August reflects a turning point for the Macau gaming industry, driven by wealth effects and ample liquidity in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - The company anticipates that the strong momentum will continue for some time, projecting a year-on-year growth of 15% in gaming revenue and 21% in EBITDA for the first quarter of next year [1] - In terms of stock recommendations, the company prefers Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China, with target prices set at HKD 54 and HKD 23 respectively [1] - Sands China is the second choice with a target price of HKD 24.5, all rated as "buy," while Melco International Development is rated as "sell" with a target price of HKD 4.5 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Macau gaming sector shows strong performance with record monthly gross gaming revenue and increased tourist arrivals, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1] Group 1: Gaming Revenue - Macau's gross gaming revenue for August reached 22.16 billion MOP, marking a new monthly high for the year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.14% and a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [1] - From January to August, the total gross gaming revenue amounted to 163.05 billion MOP, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1] Group 2: Tourist Arrivals - The Macau Public Security Police reported that the number of inbound tourists during the summer of 2025 (July to August) reached 7.68 million, averaging 123,000 visitors per day, which is a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [1] Group 3: Stock Performance - Major gaming stocks in Hong Kong saw gains, with SJM Holdings up 2.40%, Galaxy Entertainment up 2.14%, and Sands China up 1.29% among others [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on September 2, with the Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) rising by 0.23% and a trading volume exceeding 15 million yuan, indicating a premium trading trend [1] - Notable stocks within the ETF include Zhongsheng Holdings and Midea Group, both rising over 4%, while Galaxy Entertainment, BYD, Pop Mart, and Miniso saw increases of over 1% [1] - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF has experienced net inflows in 8 out of the last 10 days, totaling over 110 million yuan [1] Group 2 - According to Huatai Securities, the consumption sector is witnessing structural opportunities driven by new demands, scenarios, and models, with significant growth in emotional and personalized products like trendy toys and cosmetics [2] - The integration of services and products is reshaping the "people-goods-scene" relationship, expanding consumption boundaries [2] - Domestic brands are rapidly rising due to innovative business models and channel efficiency, with a focus on categories that show potential for penetration, supply-side capabilities, and policy support [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in the stock price of Melco International Development, which rose over 14%, leading the gains in Macau gaming stocks [1] - Melco International Development reported a net revenue of HKD 19.965 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.38% [1] - The company achieved a profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 351 million, marking a turnaround from a loss in the previous year, with basic earnings per share of HKD 0.18 [1] Group 2 - The Macau hotel and tourism industry anticipates a boost in tourism due to upcoming major events such as the National Day Golden Week, the 15th National Games, and the Grand Prix, which are expected to drive visitor numbers close to 2019 levels [1] - Analysts suggest that the concentration of large events in Macau during the second half of the year will directly enhance tourist volume and stimulate gaming demand, providing fundamental support for gaming stocks [1]

Group 1 - UBS raised the forecast for Macau's 2025 second half gaming gross revenue (GGR) growth from 7% to 12%, compared to a 4% growth in the first half of this year [1] - The gaming market dynamics in Macau are shifting, with hotel room growth no longer being the main driver of market share growth; instead, table distribution and high-end products and services are becoming key factors [1] - Mid to low-end gaming operations are expected to face challenges from domestic tourism competition and the macroeconomic environment in China [1] Group 2 - UBS anticipates that high-end gaming companies like Wynn Macau (01128) and MGM China (02282) will maintain or expand their market share, with their valuation discounts compared to larger gaming companies expected to narrow [1] - For the third quarter, UBS estimates Wynn Macau's market share at 12.2% (up 0.5 percentage points from previous forecasts) and MGM China's market share at 16.4% (up 0.7 percentage points) [1] - Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) are projected to have market shares of 24.5% (down 0.2 percentage points) and 19.5% (down 0.1 percentage points) respectively for the third quarter [1] Group 3 - UBS upgraded Wynn Macau's rating from "Neutral" to "Buy," raising the target price from HKD 6.1 to HKD 8.4, reflecting a projected enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 9.5 times for next year [1] - UBS maintained a "Buy" rating for MGM China, increasing the target price from HKD 15.9 to HKD 19.8, also reflecting a projected enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 9.5 times for next year [1] - UBS maintained a "Neutral" rating for Sands China, raising the target price from HKD 17.8 to HKD 21.6, corresponding to a projected enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 11.5 times for next year [2] - UBS maintained a "Buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment, increasing the target price from HKD 43.9 to HKD 46.9, reflecting a projected enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 11.7 times for next year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in Hong Kong's gaming stocks, particularly driven by the strong performance of Golden Century Holdings, which surged 18% after its earnings report [1] - Golden Century Holdings reported a revenue of $342 million for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.76% [1] - The company achieved a profit attributable to shareholders of $149 million, marking a turnaround from a loss, with earnings per share at 3.36 cents and an interim dividend of 1.01 cents [1] Group 2 - The financial position of Golden Century Holdings showed a substantial increase in cash and bank balances, which surged by 103.5% to $245 million, with a net asset value of $2.3 billion [1] - Several institutions have released research reports expressing optimism about the gaming industry, with Morgan Stanley predicting continuous growth in Macau's gaming revenue from 2025 to 2027 due to improved operating leverage and competitive dynamics [1] - JPMorgan has raised its forecasts for the Macau gaming industry for the third time in three months since the last upgrade [1] Group 3 - Other gaming stocks also experienced gains, with Macau Legend rising 7.6%, Melco International Development up 6.9%, and Wynn Macau increasing by over 3% [1] - Additional stocks such as SJM Holdings and Galaxy Entertainment saw increases of over 1%, indicating a positive trend across the sector [1]