盈利预测：看好25Q2&Q3 低基数下公司销量端持续改善。24 年公司经历库存水平调整，整体渠道库存 良性，叠加Q2&3 销量基数较低。我们看好公司量端的恢复弹性。我们预计公司25-27 年实现营收 331.4/340.6/349.0 亿元，分别同比+3.1%/+2.8%/+2.5%，实现归母净利润47.4/50.2/52.4 亿元，分别同比 +9.0%/+6.0%/+4.4%，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 成本端红利延续，毛利率提升，盈利能力有所提升。25Q1 公司吨成本同比-2.6%，毛利率同比+1.2pcts 至41.6%。费用端，销售/管理/财务费用率分别同比-0.3pcts/-0.2pcts/+0.4pcts。在毛利率提升及费控良好 的带动下，25Q1 公司归母净利率同比+0.6pcts至16.4%，扣非归母净利率同比+0.4pcts至15.3%。 事件：公司发布2025 年第一季度报告，25Q1 实现营业收入104.5 亿元，同比+2.9%；实现归母净利润 17.1 亿元，同比+7.1%；实现扣非归母净利润16.0亿元，同比+5.9%。 25Q1 销量改善兑现，展望Q2&Q3，在低基数下销量有望持续改善 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.12%, gaining 26 points to close at 21,998 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.81% with a trading volume of HKD 97.3 billion in the morning session [1] - Ant Group plans to invest HKD 28.14 billion to acquire a controlling stake in Yau Tat Securities, leading to a surge in Alibaba-related stocks, with Yau Tat Securities rising by 20% and Alibaba Health increasing by 6% [1] - Meituan-W saw a morning increase of 3.82%, as institutions expect the competition landscape in the food delivery industry to remain stable, suggesting long-term value release for the platform [1] - Longjiang Life Science (00775) rose over 9% after showcasing various cancer vaccine data at AACR 2025 [1] - Horizon Robotics-W (09660) also increased by over 9% following a strategic partnership with Denso, with institutions indicating a positive outlook for the industry chain [1] Group 2 - Zai Lab (09911) increased by 6.48%, driven by significant growth in social business revenue in Q1, and the company is exploring overseas acquisition opportunities [2] - Lao Pu Gold (06181) rose over 6%, as institutions noted that fixed-price gold products benefit from the rising gold prices [3] - Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) surged by 8%, reaching a new historical high, with institutions optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the beauty care sector [4] - Tigermed (03347) fell over 2% post-earnings, with Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by nearly 30%, although there is still room for improvement in gross margin [4] - Qingdao Beer Co., Ltd. (00168) dropped by 3.7% post-earnings, despite a 7.08% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 [4] - Longyuan Power (00916) declined over 6% post-earnings, with Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 21.82% and wind power segment revenue down by 1.89% [4] - Rongchang Bio (09995) fell by 8.21% post-earnings, despite nearly 60% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1, with losses narrowing to CNY 254 million [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, with a target price of 90 CNY and 70 HKD [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a good start in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 10.446 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.71 billion CNY, up 7.08% year-on-year [2][6]. - The report anticipates an acceleration in sales during the peak season, supported by reduced inventory levels and a focus on sales growth strategies [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 32.138 billion CNY in 2024 to 33.639 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 4.7% [2][6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4.345 billion CNY in 2024 to 4.875 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 12.2% [2][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to rise from 3.19 CNY in 2024 to 3.57 CNY in 2025 [2][6]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 24 times in 2024 to 22 times in 2025 [2][6]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.6 times in 2024 to 3.4 times in 2025 [2][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has achieved a sales volume increase of 3.5% in Q1 2025, with a focus on premium products contributing to overall growth [6][7]. - The report highlights the importance of cost reduction and scale effects, with a decrease in unit costs by 2.6% to 2,696 CNY per ton in Q1 2025 [6][7]. - The management's strategy includes flexible product mix adjustments and increased investment in marketing to boost sales during the upcoming peak season [6][7].

投资要点： 成本红利延续，盈利能力同比优化。根据公司公告，测算2025Q1 公司吨酒成本为2696.3 元/吨，同比下 降2.6%，主因去年同期使用了部分高价麦芽，以及今年麦芽价格进一步下降。2025Q1 公司毛利率为 41.64%， 同比提升1.2pct 。费用端， 2025Q1 公司销售/管理/ 研发费用率分别为12.53%/3.2%/0.17%，分 别同比-0.29/-0.2/基本持平。费用率优化预计一方面是公司优化了费用投放方式，另一方面来自于销量 表现回暖后规模效应增强。2025Q1 公司归母净利率为16.37%，同比提升0.64pct。净利率提升幅度小于 毛利率，主因2025Q1 公允价值变动收益减少，以及利息收入减少等因素所致。 股价表现的催化剂：餐饮消费改善，产品提价。 核心假设风险：中高端竞争加剧，原材料成本超预期上涨。 事件：公司发布2025 年一季报，根据公司公告，2025Q1 公司实现营业总收入104.46 亿，同比增长 2.9%，归母净利润17.1 亿，同比增长7.08%，扣非净利润16.03 亿，同比增长5.9%，公司业绩符合预 期。 投资评级与估值：维持盈利预测，预测2025~2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Qingdao Beer has crossed the pressure point in Q1 2025, with expectations for volume and price to accelerate in the future [7] - The company reported a revenue of 10.446 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.710 billion yuan, up 7.08% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights that the sales volume in Q1 2025 increased by 3.53% to 2.261 million tons, indicating resilience and a positive outlook for the upcoming quarters [7] - The gross profit margin improved, with a net profit margin rising to 16.64%, reflecting better operational efficiency [7] - The report emphasizes that Qingdao Beer is a quality stock with both offensive and defensive characteristics, benefiting from restaurant recovery and management enhancements [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Qingdao Beer are as follows: 33.614 billion yuan in 2025, 34.783 billion yuan in 2026, and 35.909 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 4.59%, 3.48%, and 3.24% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4.845 billion yuan in 2025, 5.350 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.736 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 11.51%, 10.43%, and 7.21% respectively [1][8] - The report projects the earnings per share (EPS) to be 3.55 yuan in 2025, 3.92 yuan in 2026, and 4.20 yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 21.75 in 2025 to 18.38 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [1][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Qingdao Beer has crossed the pressure point in Q1 2025, with expectations for volume and price to accelerate in the future [8] - The company reported a revenue of 10.446 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.710 billion yuan, up 7.08% year-on-year [8] - The report highlights that the sales volume in Q1 2025 increased by 3.53% to 2.261 million tons, with expectations for marginal acceleration in sales growth in Q2 and Q3 due to low base effects [8] - The gross margin improved, and the net profit margin continued to rise, reaching 16.64% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The report emphasizes that Qingdao Beer is a quality stock with both offensive and defensive characteristics, benefiting from restaurant recovery and management strengthening [8] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is updated to 4.845 billion, 5.350 billion, and 5.736 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 20, and 18 times [8] - The report provides detailed financial projections, including total revenue and net profit growth rates, with expected revenue of 33.614 billion yuan in 2025, a 4.59% year-on-year increase [9]

青岛啤酒Q1盈利能力稳步提升。营收同比增长2.91%，净利润同比增长7.08%。主品牌青岛啤酒销量稳增4.1%，线上销量创历史新高。 28日，青岛啤酒公布第一季度业绩： | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 本报告期比上年同 期增减变动幅度(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 10. 445, 537, 525 | 10, 150, 014, 997 | 2.91 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | 1.710. 355. 183 | 1,597, 244, 544 | 7.08 | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣除非 经常性损益的净利润 | 1,602,915,160 | 1,512,925,129 | 5.95 | | 经营活动产生的现金流量净额 | 1,789,631,626 | 2,853, 166, 067 | -37.28 | | 基本每股收益(元/股) | 1. 254 | 1. 175 | 6.72 | | 稀释每股收益(元/股) | 1. 254 | 1. 172 | 7.00 | | 加权平均净资产收益率(%) | 5.72 | 5. 65 ...

Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of RMB 10.45 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.91%[6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 1.71 billion, up 7.08% compared to the same period last year[6] - Basic earnings per share rose to RMB 1.254, reflecting a growth of 6.72%[6] Sales and Market Growth - The sales volume for the main brand Tsingtao Beer was 1.375 million kiloliters, a year-on-year growth of 4.1%[8] - The sales volume for mid-to-high-end products reached 1.011 million kiloliters, increasing by 5.3% year-on-year[8] - The company continues to enhance brand promotion and product structure upgrades, achieving record online sales[8] - The company is actively expanding its new business and new retail operations, maintaining rapid growth in instant retail[8] Cash Flow and Assets - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 37.28% to RMB 1.79 billion, primarily due to changes in advance payments[11] - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were RMB 51.29 billion, a slight decrease of 0.25% from the previous year[7] - Shareholders' equity attributable to shareholders increased by 5.89% to RMB 30.77 billion[7] Shareholder Information - Qingdao Beer Group holds a total of 443,467,655 shares, including 405,132,055 A-shares and 38,335,600 H-shares through its subsidiary[15] - Hong Kong Central Clearing (Agent) Limited holds 614,001,319 H-shares, representing multiple clients' holdings[15] - The company does not have knowledge of any relationships or concerted actions among the top ten shareholders[15] - The company has not reported any changes in the participation of major shareholders in margin financing and securities lending activities[16] Future Reporting - As of March 31, 2025, the company will provide unaudited financial statements on its website and the Shanghai Stock Exchange[17]

本报记者 朱文达 "青啤伟业，质量为基；好人好酒，薪火传承；恪守诚信，守正创新……"在青岛啤酒股份有限公司（以下简称"青岛啤酒"），质量誓词再度响彻厂区。近日，青岛啤酒举办第47届"提高质量纪念 据了解，青岛啤酒秉承"好人酿好酒"的百年世训，不断与时代特征互动，将传统匠心精神与前沿智能制造、精益生产深度融合，为消费者稳定提供高品质产品。可持续"灯塔工厂"青岛啤酒厂的 近年来，青岛啤酒精耕细作铸精品，建立从源头到餐桌的质量管理体系，形成九大系列产品矩阵，70多种产品百花齐放，各具特色、高辨识度的口味成为市场长红产品。青岛啤酒位列世界品牌5 人才是企业质量战略落地落实的重要支撑，秉持"慢、专、精"传统质量文化的青岛啤酒人，借助数字化时代的要素创新，完成从"工匠"到"智匠"的技能跃升，重塑一整套更为严苛精准的生产流 在第47届"提高质量纪念日"活动中，青岛啤酒对该公司举办的第10届职业技能大赛获奖者代表、职工质量改进与创新案例进行表彰。"生产线上的每一个细节都关乎产品品质，也让我更加坚定了 在同日举行的青岛啤酒质量日消费者品鉴会活动中，青岛啤酒酿酒师与消费者进行了沟通。海风暖阳、春意盎然，"经典""纯生""白啤"" ...

Brand Value and Market Presence - In 2024, Tsingtao Beer maintained its position as the top brand value in the Chinese beer industry, with a brand value of RMB 264.675 billion[11]. - The total brand value of Tsingtao Beer, Laoshan Beer, and Hans Brewery exceeded RMB 426.7 billion[13]. - Tsingtao Beer products have been sold in over 120 countries and regions globally, enhancing its international market presence[18]. - Tsingtao Beer was recognized as The World's Strongest Beer Brand in 2024 by Brand Finance, solidifying its market position[40][43]. Product Development and Innovation - The company has introduced a range of new products, including "Century Legend" and "Tsingtao IPA," to meet evolving consumer demands[15]. - The company launched new products including Augerta A Series, Nicasi White Beer, and Non-alcoholic Series, catering to diverse consumer demands[46][50]. - The company emphasizes technological innovation as a key driver for meeting consumer needs and enhancing brand influence[17]. Financial Performance - Operating profit for the year reached RMB 5,843,119,000, reflecting a strong performance[21]. - Total revenue for 2024 was RMB 32,137,830,000, a slight decrease from RMB 33,936,523,000 in 2023[23]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased to RMB 4,344,984,000, compared to RMB 4,267,851,000 in the previous year, marking a growth of approximately 1.8%[23]. - Net cash flow from operating activities significantly improved to RMB 5,154,661,000, up from RMB 2,777,567,000 in 2023[23]. - Basic earnings per share rose to RMB 3.191, an increase from RMB 3.139 in the prior year[23]. - Total assets increased to RMB 51,420,386,000, compared to RMB 49,256,011,000 in 2023, indicating growth in the company's asset base[23]. - Total equity attributable to shareholders of the Company reached RMB 29,060,385,000, up from RMB 27,449,478,000 in 2023[23]. - The company reported a fully diluted return on net assets of 14.95%, slightly down from 15.55% in the previous year[23]. Sales and Distribution - The company achieved a product sales volume of 7.538 million kiloliters and revenue of RMB 32.14 billion, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.34 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8%[38][41][54][57]. - Online product sales grew by 21% year-on-year, marking the 12th consecutive year of growth[39][42]. - The company expanded its fresh beer delivery service, achieving fresh delivery of Tsingtao's Original Beer and Draft products in 24 cities[39][42]. - The company has focused on improving production equipment to meet advanced international standards, ensuring high product quality and safety[14]. - Tsingtao Beer has strengthened its marketing efforts and deepened its sales network to enhance its competitive edge in both base and emerging markets[18]. Sustainability and Environmental Commitment - The company has 23 breweries recognized as "National Green Factory," supporting its commitment to sustainable development[47][51]. - The Company has amended and improved its environmental management policy and published relevant technical standards to enhance environmental performance[74]. - The Company is committed to sustainable development by establishing close relationships with employees and providing quality products to customers[76]. Shareholder and Capital Structure - The Board proposed a final dividend of RMB2.20 per share for the year ended 31 December 2024, subject to approval at the Company's 2024 Annual General Meeting[67]. - The Company implements a profit distribution policy where cash dividends shall be no less than 30% of the distributable profits realized in the current year[68]. - The total number of ordinary shares increased from 1,364,196,788 to 1,364,100,121, with a change of 4,332,529 shares issued, representing an increase of 0.32%[84]. - The proportion of unrestricted tradable shares rose from 99.68% to 99.99%, indicating a significant increase in liquidity[84]. - The total number of shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 51,948, including 51,709 A-share holders and 239 H-share holders[89]. Management and Governance - The company has implemented an annual performance appraisal and remuneration incentive program for executive directors and senior management officers[108]. - The total remuneration for the reporting period amounted to RMB 1,527.28 million[116]. - The company has established a code of conduct for securities trading by directors, supervisors, and senior management personnel[106]. - The Supervisory Board held 9 meetings during the reporting period, discussing 23 proposals, including quality improvement and efficiency enhancement plans[200]. Continuing Connected Transactions - The Company entered into four continuing connected transactions with its controlling shareholder, Qingdao Beer Group, and its subsidiaries, which are required to comply with the relevant listing rules[163]. - The independent non-executive directors confirmed that the continuing connected transactions for the year ended December 31, 2024, were conducted in the ordinary course of business and on normal commercial terms[182]. - The Group complied with the disclosure requirements of Chapter 14A of the Listing Rules regarding continuing connected transactions during the year ended December 31, 2024[186].