星展发表研究报告指，金蝶国际上半年整体业绩略低于市场预期，收入按年增长11.2%，符合预期；净 亏损收窄至9800万元。根据管理层的指引，该行有信心其可于全年录得盈利。然而，公司必须在下半年 录得盈利2.61亿元，才能达到该行之前预测的全年盈利1.63亿元，而这似乎极具挑战。 该行下调金蝶国际2025及26财年的盈测17%和3%，分别至1.35亿及2.43亿元，以反映上半年盈利能力较 低及人工智能研发开支可能上升。该行表示，随着经济持续复苏，人工智能应用的采用将促进云端业务 的增长，维持对金蝶国际"买入"评级，目标价由19.2港元上调至21.7港元。 ...

Core Insights - Kingdee International reported a revenue of RMB 3.192 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 11.2% [2] - The company aims to become a global leader in enterprise management AI by 2030, leveraging the "AI + SaaS" trend [2] - The growth in performance is attributed to the scaling effects of cloud subscription services and efficiency improvements brought by AI [2] Financial Performance - Gross profit increased by 15.4% year-on-year, with an improvement in gross margin by 2.4 percentage points [2] - Net cash flow from operating activities improved by approximately 89% year-on-year [2] - Cloud service revenue reached approximately RMB 2.673 billion, growing by about 11.9% [2] - Cloud subscription revenue was approximately RMB 1.684 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 22.1% [2] - Specific subscription revenue growth included 41.1% for Kingdee Cloud Cangqiong & Xinghan, 19% for Kingdee Cloud Xingkong, and 23.8% for micro cloud product subscriptions [2] AI Integration and Strategy - Kingdee accelerated the commercialization and scenario-based application of AI in the first half of the year, with AI contract amounts exceeding RMB 150 million during the reporting period [3] - The company is integrating AI technology deeply into all its SaaS products, services, and operational processes [3] - For 2024, Kingdee plans to prioritize AI, aiming to reconstruct enterprise management through AI integration in all aspects of its offerings [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown good growth in its cloud business and accelerated the implementation of AI applications. The revenue for the first half of the year reached 3.192 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, with a significant reduction in net loss from 218 million yuan to 98 million yuan [5][6]. - The company continues to push its "subscription-first" strategy, achieving a cloud subscription revenue of 1.684 billion yuan, which is a 22.1% increase year-on-year. The annual recurring revenue (ARR) for cloud subscriptions reached 3.73 billion yuan, up 18.5% [6][5]. - The company is also advancing its "AI-first" strategy, launching several AI products and achieving over 150 million yuan in AI contract amounts during the reporting period [6][5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company's revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 7.078 billion yuan, 8.004 billion yuan, and 9.001 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.18 billion yuan, 3.36 billion yuan, and 6.35 billion yuan [6][4]. - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 7.3, 6.4, and 5.7 respectively [6][4]. - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of 66.0% in 2025, increasing to 68.0% by 2027 [9][8]. Operational Performance - The company has improved its operational metrics, with a gross margin of 65.63% in the latest reporting period, up from 63.25% year-on-year [6][5]. - The net profit margin is projected to turn positive by 2025, with a forecast of 1.7% [9][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -1.7% in 2024 to 7.2% by 2027 [9][8].

近日，金蝶公布公司及其附属公司（「集团」）截至2025年6月30日止六个月（「报告期」）之未经审 核简明综合中期业绩。 报告期内，金蝶录得收入约人民币31.92亿元，同比增长约11.2%，其中，云服务收入约人民币26.73亿 元，同比增长约11.9%，云订阅收入约人民币16.84亿元，同比增长约22.1%；毛利率同比改善2.4个百分 点至约65.6%；公司权益持有人当期应占亏损约为人民币0.98亿元，同比缩窄约55.1%。金蝶云订阅服务 年经常性收入（ARR）约为人民币37.3亿元，同比增长约18.5%；云订阅服务相关的合同负债实现同比 增长约24.7%。 "我们相信今年一定是实现盈利的一年，今年的经营性现金流一定会在十亿以上。"金蝶集团执行董事、 首席财务官林波表示，该公司对长期的利润经营充满信心。 根据IDC最新发布的企业应用市场相关追踪报告，金蝶在中国市场的SaaS ERP、财务云、财务和会计应 用云、司库管理云、EPM、税务、PLM云等多个细分领域均位列第一，并已连续21年蝉联IDC中国成长 型企业应用软件市场占有率第一。与此同时，金蝶成为首家且唯一入选Gartner《离散制造业PLM软件 市场指南》 ...

长期来看，随着云业务及AI智能体订单的持续增长，金蝶有望凭借其专有数据优势进一步提升业绩。 根据最新分部估值(SOTP)假设，该行将其目标价由18.9港元降至18.08港元，维持"买入"评级。 中银国际发表研究报告指，金蝶国际中期业绩报告后股价下跌，主要受投资者获利了结影响。公司2025 年上半年收入按年增长11%，经常性收入(ARR)达37亿元，按年增长18.5%，但略低于市场预期。尽管 如此，该行认为，金蝶在盈利能力和经营现金流方面依然展现出良好的改善迹象。管理层指引2025年实 现盈亏平衡，并实现不少于10亿元的净经营现金流。 ...

里昂发布研报称，金蝶国际(00268)上半年收入符合市场预期，主要受云订阅收入增长所推动，订阅相 关负债增长稳健，显示其订阅模式发展稳定，毛利率亦因业务结构改善而提升。里昂将金蝶的目标价由 15.4港元上调至17.6港元，维持"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

里昂发布研报称，金蝶国际(00268)上半年收入符合市场预期，主要受云订阅收入增长所推动，订阅相 关负债增长稳健，显示其订阅模式发展稳定，毛利率亦因业务结构改善而提升。里昂将金蝶的目标价由 15.4港元上调至17.6港元，维持"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

里昂将金蝶的目标价由15.4港元上调至17.6港元，维持"跑赢大市"评级；将2025至2027年收入预测下调 1.3%、3.2%、5.2%，净利润率预测基本保持不变。 里昂发表研究报告指，金蝶国际上半年收入符合市场预期，主要受云订阅收入增长所推动，虽然云订阅 服务年经常性收入(ARR)略低于市场预期，但订阅相关负债增长稳健，显示其订阅模式发展稳定，毛利 率亦因业务结构改善而提升。 ...

苍穹AI Agent平台2.0为智能体落地提供技术支撑，支持企业通过低代码配置专属智能体。例如，企业可基于平台快速开发合同审查、库存优化等场景化智能 体，金蝶研发负责人提及，这类平台化能力显著降低了AI应用门槛，使中小企业也能低成本部署智能体。 【环球网财经 记者 陈超】如今，SaaS软件的付费模式正经历根本性变革。客户从"为功能买单"转向"为结果付费"，而AI智能体的崛起成为这一转型的核心 变量。在企业管理软件领域，AI不再局限于辅助工具，而是进化为能直接交付业务成果的"智能员工"。 金蝶国际2025年中期业绩发布会通过数据与案例，印证了这一趋势：其AI合同金额超1.5亿元，云订阅收入同比增长22.1%至16.84亿元，且不同规模客户的 净金额续费率（NDR）维持高位，大型企业108%、中型企业94%、小微企业93%。 过往SaaS企业多通过"席位授权+功能模块"收费，客户为潜在使用价值付费，但实际效果往往难以量化。例如，传统ERP系统的库存管理模块可能因数据延 迟或流程割裂，无法直接提升库存周转率，导致客户续费意愿波动。 金蝶云订阅合同负债同比增长24.7%至33.78亿元，这类预收款对应的海量企业运营数 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the top short-selling stocks in Hong Kong, indicating significant short-selling activity in companies like New World Development, Hong Kong Exchanges, and BYD, with notable short-selling ratios and amounts [1][2]. Short-Selling Ratios - New World Development (80016) has the highest short-selling ratio at 100.00% - Hong Kong Exchanges (80388) follows with a short-selling ratio of 94.27% - BYD (81211) has a short-selling ratio of 94.13% [1][2]. Short-Selling Amounts - Alibaba (09988) leads in short-selling amount with HKD 1.546 billion - Tencent (00700) has a short-selling amount of HKD 1.265 billion - Xiaomi (01810) follows with HKD 1.188 billion [1][2]. Deviation Values - Hong Kong Exchanges (80388) has the highest deviation value at 54.37% - New World Development (80016) has a deviation value of 41.90% - Alibaba (89988) shows a deviation value of 39.84% [1][2].