美银证券发布研报称，根据盈利预告，金蝶国际(00268)2025财年营运现金流预计达11亿元人民币，同 比增长18%。该行维持对金蝶的"买入"评级，目标价20.2港元。理由包括(1)在订阅收入增长与AI变现能 力提升支持下，营收增长具韧性; (2)2025财年实现盈亏平衡目标后，盈利能力持续改善。 金蝶国际上日(21日)收市后发盈喜，以预期范围中位数计算，2025财年营收预计同比增长12%至70亿元 人民币(下同)(范围：69.5亿至70.5亿元)，调整后净利润预计2.15亿元(范围：1.9亿至2.4亿元); 两项数据 均符合市场共识及美银预期。调整后净利润已排除股权激励费用、商誉减值、投资公允价值变动等项 目。 该行认为金蝶2025财年营收增长稳固，主要受大型企业业务强劲扩张驱动，而2025年下半年营收增速加 快(同比升12.5%，对比上半年同比升11%)，可能反映下游需求逐步改善，部分原因在于2025年第四季 来自中小企业新订单增速提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has issued a report indicating that Kingdee International (00268) is expected to achieve an operating cash flow of 1.1 billion RMB in the fiscal year 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year growth. The firm maintains a "Buy" rating on Kingdee with a target price of 20.2 HKD [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Kingdee International anticipates revenue growth of 12% to 7 billion RMB, with a range of 6.95 billion to 7.05 billion RMB [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 215 million RMB, with a range of 190 million to 240 million RMB, aligning with market consensus and Bank of America's expectations [1] - The adjusted net profit excludes items such as equity incentive expenses, goodwill impairment, and changes in the fair value of investments [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The revenue growth for fiscal year 2025 is primarily driven by strong expansion in large enterprise business [1] - Revenue growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, compared to an 11% increase in the first half [1] - The improvement in downstream demand is partly attributed to an increase in new orders from small and medium-sized enterprises in the fourth quarter of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kingdee International (00268) has seen a nearly 4% increase in stock price, currently trading at HKD 14.62, with a transaction volume of HKD 185 million. The company announced preliminary revenue estimates for the year ending December 31, 2025, projecting total revenue between RMB 6.95 billion and RMB 7.05 billion, representing a growth of approximately 11.1% to 12.7% compared to the same period in 2024, driven by the execution of its "Subscription First, AI First" strategy and rapid growth in cloud subscription revenue [1][2]. Group 1 - The expected total revenue for the reporting period is projected to be between RMB 6.95 billion and RMB 7.05 billion, an increase from RMB 6.256 billion in 2024 [1]. - The anticipated profit attributable to equity holders of the company is estimated to be between RMB 60 million and RMB 100 million, a significant recovery from a loss of RMB 142 million in 2024 [1]. - Adjusted profit, excluding certain expenses, is expected to be between RMB 190 million and RMB 240 million, compared to a loss of RMB 10 million in 2024 [1]. Group 2 - The net cash inflow from operating activities is projected to be between RMB 1.09 billion and RMB 1.11 billion, reflecting a growth of approximately 16.8% to 18.9% compared to RMB 934 million in 2024 [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 14.16 and a fair value of HKD 19.75 [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 69.5-70.5 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 11.1%-12.7%, and is projected to turn profitable with a net profit of RMB 0.6-1 billion [9][10]. - The operating cash flow (OCF) and adjusted net profit are expected to exceed market expectations, indicating improved operational quality [10]. - The company's pricing power is expected to increase, supported by the ongoing implementation of AI applications, which is anticipated to enhance profitability [10][11]. - The company is projected to maintain a revenue growth rate of 11.4% in 2025, 12.9% in 2026, and 13.9% in 2027 [11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023: RMB 5,679 million - 2024: RMB 6,256 million - 2025: RMB 6,970 million (growth rate: 11.4%) - 2026: RMB 7,868 million (growth rate: 12.9%) - 2027: RMB 8,960 million (growth rate: 13.9%) [8][11]. - EBITDA Forecast: - 2023: RMB 136 million - 2024: RMB 331 million - 2025: RMB 913 million - 2026: RMB 1,286 million - 2027: RMB 1,771 million [8]. - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023: RMB -210 million - 2024: RMB -142 million - 2025: RMB 81 million - 2026: RMB 325 million - 2027: RMB 640 million [8][11]. Business Segment Analysis - Cloud Services Revenue: - Expected growth rates for 金蝶云星空 are 12% in 2025, 13% in 2026, and 14% in 2027 [12]. - Expected growth rates for 金蝶云苍穹 are 30% in 2025, 28% in 2026, and 25% in 2027 [12]. - Management Software Revenue: - Expected decline in revenue with growth rates of -3% in 2025, -3% in 2026, and -2% in 2027 [12][13].

格隆汇1月22日｜野村发表报告指，金蝶国际发盈喜，预计去年收入介乎69.5亿至70.5亿元，中位数70亿 元，符合市场预期。全年净利润料介乎6000万至1亿元，意味公司五年来首度盈利，符合管理层预期。 该行认为公司在订阅即服务(SaaS)转型的密集投资阶段已完结，将令未来收入增长可持续，人工智能将 成为公司不可缺少的业务，推动未来增长加速及更佳盈利能力。该行维持对金蝶"买入"评级及目标价 18.49港元，为预测市销率8.7倍。 ...

该行予金蝶目标价20.2港元，维持"买入"评级，理由包括在订阅收入增长与AI变现能力提升支持下，营 收增长具韧性；2025财年实现盈亏平衡目标后，盈利能力持续改善。 美银证券发表报告指，金蝶国际发盈喜，以预期范围中位数计算，2025财年营收预计按年增长12%至70 亿元，调整后净利润预计2.15亿元，两项数据均符合市场共识及美银预期。该行认为金蝶2025财年营收 增长稳固，主要受大型企业业务强劲扩张驱动，而下半年营收增速加快(按年升12.5%，对比上半年按年 升11%)，可能反映下游需求逐步改善，部分原因在于2025年第四季来自中小企业新订单增速提升。 ...

转自：证券时报 人民财讯1月22日电，金蝶国际公告，预计2025年度实现营收69.5亿元（人民币，下同）至70.5亿元，同 比2024年度增长11.1%至12.6%，主要得益于深化执行"订阅优先、AI优先"战略，云订阅业务收入持续 快速增长，企业管理AI加速场景化落地，公司市场份额进一步提升；预计实现净利润6000万至1亿元， 主要得益于云订阅业务规模化效应及AI带来的效率提升；预计实现扣非净利润1.9亿元至2.4亿元。2024 年度，金蝶国际亏损1.42亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kingdee International (00268) has seen a nearly 4% increase in stock price, attributed to its positive revenue and profit forecasts for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, driven by its "subscription-first, AI-first" strategy [1] Group 1: Revenue Forecast - The company expects total revenue for the reporting period to be approximately RMB 69.5 billion to RMB 70.5 billion, representing a growth of about 11.1% to 12.7% compared to the same period in 2024, where revenue was approximately RMB 62.56 billion [1] - The growth is primarily due to the rapid increase in cloud subscription business revenue and the accelerated implementation of enterprise management AI, leading to an enhanced market share [1] Group 2: Profit Forecast - Kingdee anticipates a profit attributable to equity holders of the company in the range of approximately RMB 60 million to RMB 100 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of approximately RMB 142 million in 2024 [1] - The expected profit increase is mainly driven by the scaling effects of the cloud subscription business and efficiency improvements brought by AI [1] Group 3: Adjusted Profit - After excluding stock-based compensation, goodwill impairment, changes in fair value of investments, amortization of acquired intangible assets, and related income taxes, the adjusted profit attributable to equity holders is projected to be between RMB 190 million and RMB 240 million, compared to a loss of approximately RMB 10 million in 2024 [1] Group 4: Cash Flow - The net cash inflow from operating activities is expected to be approximately RMB 10.9 billion to RMB 11.1 billion, reflecting a growth of about 16.8% to 18.9% compared to the net inflow of approximately RMB 9.34 billion in 2024 [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on January 22, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.62% to 26,750.51 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.85% to 5,795 points, and the National Enterprises Index up by 0.55% to 9,173.54 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Alibaba up 1.72%, Tencent Holdings up 0.33%, JD Group up 0.98%, and Xiaomi Group up 0.9% [1] - Chip stocks opened high, with Zhaoyi Innovation rising over 7% [1] - The innovative drug concept was active, with WuXi Biologics rising over 1% [1] - Gold stocks generally fell, with Shandong Gold down over 2% [1] - Longqi Technology's IPO on the Hong Kong stock market saw a nearly 13% increase on its first day [1] Company News - Shanghai Electric (02727.HK) expects a net profit of RMB 1.1 billion to RMB 1.32 billion for 2025, an increase of approximately 47% to 76% year-on-year [2] - Kingdee International (00268.HK) anticipates total revenue of approximately RMB 6.95 billion to RMB 7.05 billion for 2025, a year-on-year growth of about 11.1% to 12.7% [2] - Beijing Machinery Electric (00187.HK) expects a net loss of RMB 46 million to RMB 55.2 million for 2025, primarily due to intensified international trade frictions affecting its gas storage and transportation export business [2] - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) reported a retail value growth of 17.8% for the three months ending December 31, 2025, with mainland China retail value increasing by 16.9% [2] - Zai Lab (09911.HK) anticipates a cumulative download of approximately 970 million for its social business by 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 5.9% [2] Strategic Developments - Ruiri Medical Technology (01696.HK) signed a letter of intent for cooperation with Stryker Medical to establish localized production in China [3] - Cathay Pacific (00293.HK) and Hong Kong Express expect to carry over 36 million passengers in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27% [4] - Shenyang Public Development (00747.HK) has initiated edge computing infrastructure and service business [5] - Flat Glass Group (06865.HK) plans to absorb and merge with Zhongda Quartz Development [6] Share Buybacks - Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) repurchased 7 million shares for HKD 248 million at prices between HKD 35.22 and HKD 35.48 [7] - Pop Mart (09992.HK) repurchased 500,000 shares for HKD 96.49 million at prices between HKD 191.1 and HKD 194.9 [8] - Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) repurchased 970,000 shares for HKD 61.39 million at prices between HKD 62.30 and HKD 63.95 [9] - Geely Automobile (00175.HK) repurchased 2.376 million shares for HKD 39.62 million at prices between HKD 16.62 and HKD 16.81 [10] Financial Instruments - Huaneng International Power (00902.HK) completed the issuance of RMB 2 billion medium-term notes [11] - CICC (03908.HK) plans to issue up to RMB 5 billion in bonds for technology innovation companies [12] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Securities noted that despite a general reduction in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations in overseas markets, domestic investors remain optimistic [13] - Orient Securities highlighted that recent U.S. measures against Venezuela and Greenland have increased geopolitical risks, supporting gold prices [14] - Zheshang Securities suggested that the humanoid robot sector has formed an ecological closed loop, recommending attention to component suppliers and undervalued transformation targets [14] - CITIC Securities indicated that new policies from the National Medical Insurance Administration will accelerate the promotion of surgical robots in China [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Kingdee Software (China) Co., Ltd.'s recent patent application for a data processing method aimed at improving data query efficiency [1] - The patent, published under CN121350104A, was applied for on October 2025 and involves a method that determines the information gain of a user's historical query fields to filter and create a pre-stored data table for efficient querying [1] - Kingdee Software, established in 1993 and based in Shenzhen, has a registered capital of 1.4 billion RMB and has invested in 66 companies while participating in 3,712 bidding projects [2] Group 2 - The company holds 810 trademark records and 1,921 patent records, along with 97 administrative licenses, indicating a strong intellectual property portfolio [2]