业绩超预期，利润与现金流拐点已现 福昕软件(688095) 证券研究报告 软件开发 / 公司点评 / 2025.08.31 1. 《国产 PDF 龙头，订阅、AI、收购三线 并发》 2025-05-20 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 611 | 711 | 1,097 | 1,383 | 1,778 | | 收入增长率(%) | 5.3 | 16.4 | 54.2 | 26.1 | 28.5 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | -91 | 27 | 31 | 136 | 287 | | 净利润增长率(%) | — | — | 15.3 | 338.3 | 110.4 | | EPS(元) | -1.03 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 1.49 | 3.14 | | PE | — | 221.8 | 265.5 | 60.6 | 28.8 | | ROE(%) | -3. ...

Core Viewpoint - Kingdee International's revenue for the first half of 2025 grew by 11.2% year-on-year to 3.19 billion yuan, while the net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed from 218 million yuan to 97.74 million yuan, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations due to cautious decision-making by enterprises amid a weak macroeconomic backdrop [1][2] Group 1: Revenue and Growth - The company's total revenue growth of 11.2% was consistent with the previous year, despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - Cloud subscription revenue increased by 22.1% year-on-year to 1.684 billion yuan, accounting for 52.8% of total revenue, up from 48.1% in the same period last year [1] - The revenue from the Cangqiong and Xinghan cloud subscriptions grew by 41.1% to 276 million yuan, representing 32.7% of product revenue [1] - New customer acquisitions included 304 for Cangqiong and Xinghan, and 518 for the national and provincial specialized enterprises [1] Group 2: Cost Management and Profitability - The gross margin improved by 2.4 percentage points to 65.6%, driven by the increasing proportion of high-margin subscription revenue [2] - The operating loss narrowed from 317 million yuan to 175 million yuan, with a corresponding loss rate reduction of 5.6 percentage points [2] - The company aims to achieve profitability and over 1 billion yuan in operating cash flow for the full year of 2025, with a long-term goal of exceeding 3 billion yuan in operating cash flow by 2030 [2] Group 3: Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were lowered by 1.5% and 2.6% to 6.99 billion yuan and 7.89 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 was reduced by 11.8% and 5.1% to 173 million yuan and 455 million yuan, respectively [2] - The target price is maintained at 17 HKD, with an upward adjustment of the 2025 P/OCF from 40 times to 43 times, indicating a 6% upside potential [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Meitu Company (1357.HK) [13] Core Insights - Meitu Company has successfully transformed from a traffic-based business model to a subscription-based model, leveraging its strong aesthetic know-how and technological foundation [3][9] - The company has experienced three technological transformations: from PC internet to mobile internet, and now to the AI era, which has enhanced its product capabilities and user engagement [9][20] - Meitu's growth strategy focuses on three main lines: globalization, expansion of productivity tools, and continuous investment in AI [11][20] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2008, Meitu has evolved through significant technological changes, initially launching the PC version of Meitu Xiuxiu, which simplified photo editing for users [20] - The company shifted its focus back to software tools and began transitioning from a traffic monetization model to a subscription model starting in 2018 [9][20] Competitive Advantages - Meitu's strong channel capabilities and accumulated user aesthetic recognition have allowed it to maintain a leading position in the competitive beauty app market [10][57] - The company has built a robust product matrix that includes both lifestyle and productivity tools, with flagship products like Meitu Xiuxiu and BeautyCam leading their respective categories [27][93] AI Integration - All of Meitu's products have integrated AI capabilities, which have driven new growth in key metrics such as monthly active users (MAU) and payment rates [9][11] - The launch of the MiracleVision AI model in 2023 has provided a foundation for enhancing the AI capabilities across Meitu's product ecosystem [66] Market Position - Meitu holds a dominant market share of approximately 55.96% in the photo editing software sector, significantly ahead of its closest competitor [67] - The company has successfully expanded its user base internationally, particularly in Southeast Asia, where its products have gained substantial traction [93][104] Financial Performance - The subscription revenue has become a major pillar of Meitu's total income, with the subscription rate doubling from the initial phase of the transition [33][39] - The gross margin has improved significantly, rising from 15% to 69% by the end of 2024, reflecting the successful shift away from low-margin hardware businesses [39][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [3][12]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong subscription metrics that support its main business growth, with a dual transformation strategy aiding in expanding its domestic market presence [3][7]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 711 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.44%, and a net profit of 26.96 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [3][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 202 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.78%, although it reported a net loss of 5.83 million yuan, which is a 45.02% reduction in losses compared to the previous year [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 711 million yuan in 2024 to 1.26 billion yuan by 2027, with annual growth rates of 16.4%, 19.7%, 21.0%, and 22.5% respectively [6][10]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly from 27 million yuan in 2024 to 162 million yuan by 2027, with a year-on-year growth of 129.6% in 2025 [6][10]. - The gross margin is projected to remain high, around 92% over the forecast period, while the net margin is expected to improve from 3.8% in 2024 to 12.9% in 2027 [10]. Subscription and Channel Transformation - The company has successfully transitioned to a subscription model, with subscription revenue reaching 1.06 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 54.89% [7]. - The Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) from subscription services was 411 million yuan in 2024, growing by 64.42% year-on-year, and is expected to reach 452 million yuan by Q1 2025 [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of "Fuxin International" and "Fuxin China," aiming to enhance its PDF editing solutions and expand into high-value sectors such as government and healthcare [8]. - The acquisition of Fuxin Kunpeng and other strategic moves are expected to deepen the company's market penetration and drive future growth [8]. Market Position - The company holds a strong position in the PDF electronic document solutions market, with proprietary technology and competitive products [8]. - The report highlights the company's efforts to explore opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which has shown significant revenue growth [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 711 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.44%, and turned a profit with a net profit of 27 million yuan, a significant increase of 129.64% compared to the previous year [7] - The company is undergoing a dual transformation strategy focusing on subscription and channel sales, with subscription revenue reaching 351 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 49.31% of total revenue, and growing by 62.33% year-on-year [7] - The company has split its operations into "Foxit International" and "Foxit China" to enhance its global presence, with notable revenue growth in emerging markets such as the Asia-Pacific region, which saw a year-on-year increase of 53.42% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 852 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.8%, and a net profit of 45 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 68.3% [6] - The company's gross margin is projected to remain high at around 94.3% for 2025, indicating strong profitability [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve significantly, reaching 1.7% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026 [6]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the strategic direction and operational performance of a company involved in the AI and document processing industry, particularly focusing on its international and Chinese business segments [1][4][21]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Strategic Split of Operations**: The company has divided its global operations into Chinese and international segments to enhance risk management and operational resilience [1]. 2. **Revenue Growth**: The company reported a significant revenue increase, with 2020 revenues reaching approximately 3.8 billion RMB, and a notable recovery in 2024, returning to pre-transformation growth levels [1][4]. 3. **Acquisition Strategy**: The acquisition of Shanghai Chengwai Information in February aims to enhance smart governance capabilities, reflecting the company's commitment to a multi-faceted growth strategy [2]. 4. **AI Investment**: The company has made substantial investments in AI, particularly in smart networking and large model technologies, achieving leading positions in performance and cost-effectiveness in overseas evaluations [3]. 5. **Channel Transformation**: The company has prioritized channel partnerships, achieving a 40% revenue contribution from channels, with a 6% year-over-year increase [7][11]. 6. **Cost Management**: The company is focused on strict cost control, aiming to maintain or reduce overall costs while increasing revenue, with a target to keep costs at last year's levels [20][37]. 7. **Customer-Centric Approach**: The company emphasizes a customer-centric culture, aiming to enhance user experience and streamline processes for clients [15][19]. 8. **Government Services**: The company is actively involved in the digital government sector, aligning with national policies to modernize governance and improve service delivery [22][27]. 9. **Product Development**: New product features, such as enhanced AI functionalities and multi-document interaction capabilities, are being developed to drive subscription growth [8][10]. 10. **Market Positioning**: The company aims to leverage its technological advancements to maintain a competitive edge in the AI-driven document processing market [14][40]. Additional Important Content - **Financial Guidance**: While specific financial guidance for 2025 is not yet available, the company aims to maintain revenue growth close to previous levels while controlling expenses [35][37]. - **Integration of Acquisitions**: The integration of acquired companies is ongoing, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs [9][26]. - **User Experience Challenges**: The company acknowledges challenges in user experience, particularly in government service interactions, and is working to simplify processes for end-users [23][31]. - **Long-term Vision**: The company is committed to long-term growth in the digital governance sector, aiming to provide high-quality services to both citizens and enterprises [32][39]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the conference call, highlighting the company's focus on growth, innovation, and customer satisfaction in the evolving AI and document processing landscape.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Kingdee International's 2024 performance slightly underperformed expectations, with a revenue growth of 10.2% year-on-year and a net loss of 142 million yuan, although the loss has narrowed [1] Group 2 - According to CICC, Kingdee's subscription transformation continues to deepen, and AI is enabling the release of business value [2] - The operating loss for 2024 is expected to narrow to 335 million yuan, with a forecast of achieving breakeven in net profit by 2025 [2] - Considering macroeconomic impacts, CICC has lowered Kingdee's 2025 revenue forecast to 7.1 billion yuan and introduced revenue, net profit, and operating cash flow forecasts for 2026 [2] - CICC maintains an "outperforming the industry" rating and raises the target price to 17 HKD [2]