Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Resources Beer (00291) has exceeded expectations in its first half performance, driven by sales growth in mid-to-high-end beer segments, which has led to an increase in average selling prices [1] - The company plans to continue focusing on Heineken as its core brand while also strengthening its mid-to-high-end market as another growth driver during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The brokerage expects that the adjustment phase of the liquor business in the second half of the year will not worsen further, but any potential impairment will depend on business operations [1] Group 2 - The brokerage maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted from HKD 35 to HKD 33.8 to reflect the weakness in the liquor business [1]

中国商报（记者 周子荑 文/图）8月19日，啤酒行业龙头企业华润啤酒发布半年报。从整体来看，该公司营收、利润都实现了一定增长，啤酒业务多项指标 亮眼。但受白酒行业整体承压影响，其白酒业务收入下滑。 华润啤酒管理层表示，华润啤酒的高端化战略已见成效，未来公司将继续把高端化战略放在首位。 净利润同比增长23% 财报数据显示，今年上半年，华润啤酒综合营业额为239.42亿元，同比增长0.8%；股东应占溢利为57.89亿元，同比增长23%；毛利率为48.9%，同比提高了2 个百分点。 华润啤酒旗下啤酒业务多项指标亮眼。具体而言，今年上半年，该公司啤酒业务营业额为231.61亿元，同比增长2.6%；啤酒业务股东应占溢利同比增长 17.3%；啤酒产品销量为648.7万千升，同比增长2.2%。 值得一提的是，持续的高端化发展带动公司平均销售价格同比上升0.4%，还有原材料采购成本的节约，推动今年上半年公司啤酒业务毛利率同比上升2.5个 百分点至48.3%。 据了解，今年上半年，华润啤酒开发了德式小麦啤酒、茶啤如黄山毛峰和信阳毛尖、果啤、青稞啤酒、海南啤酒等特色产品，满足个性化和差异化的消费需 求。也推出了高端产品"垦十四" ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that China Resources Beer achieved a revenue of 23.94 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.79 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of the year was 23.94 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.79 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the beer business will continue to see growth in both premium and mass-market products in the second half of the year, leading to a trend of simultaneous volume and price increases [1] - Focus on price recovery in the liquor segment and promoting the reuse of beer channels for light bottle liquor is expected to improve operations [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of the "Three Precision" strategy (cost/expense/investment simplification, refinement, and lean management) and cost advantages, which may lead to sustained profit release [1] Group 3: Investment Forecast - The company is adjusting its profit forecast upwards, expecting earnings per share of 1.85 yuan, 1.82 yuan, and 1.93 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The target price for the company's stock has been raised from 37.41 HKD to 38.59 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

报告期内，华润啤酒实现啤酒销量约648.7万千升，同比上升2.2%，高端啤酒产品持续发力，次高及以 上啤酒销量同比中至高单位数增长，普高档及以上啤酒销量同比增长超过10%。 其中，"喜力"在去年高基数的情况下销量仍突破两成增长，"老雪"销量同比增长超过70%，"红爵"销量 比去年同期实现翻倍增长。 销量高增传导至业绩端。截至6月末，华润啤酒的啤酒业务营业额同比增长2.6%，对应231.61亿元。同 时，高端化战略带动平均销售价格同比上升0.4%，以及原材料采购成本的节约推动啤酒业务毛利率同 比上升2.5个百分点至48.3%。 财报沟通会上，华润啤酒执行董事及总裁赵春武称，啤酒行业的高端化空间依旧巨大，将继续坚持高端 化作为首要战略。 近期，在白酒消费疲软的大环境下，五粮液、珍酒等白酒企业纷纷推出啤酒产品。对此赵春武表示，越 来越多的新"玩家"进入啤酒赛道说明这个行业仍然具有吸引力，竞争中各个企业能发挥所长。 带动业绩向上的依旧是啤酒业务。 禁酒令也是会上被提及的重点问题。 魏强称，当前公司在重塑摘要的价格体系，其中非常关键的一点就是终端零售价要随着市场行情波动， 保证终端出货和经销商的获利，这一点公司还在不断 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that China Resources Beer achieved a revenue of 23.94 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.79 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of the year was 23.94 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.79 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in its beer business, particularly in premium and mass-market products, which is expected to sustain a trend of simultaneous volume and price increases [1] - Focus on price recovery in the liquor segment and promoting the reuse of beer channels for light bottle liquor is expected to improve operations [1] - The company aims for high-quality development in the second half of the year, leveraging new consumption trends, ongoing cost benefits, and the implementation of a "three precision" strategy (cost/expense/investment simplification, refinement, and lean management) [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast and Target Price - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast, expecting earnings per share of 1.85 yuan, 1.82 yuan, and 1.93 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The target price has been raised from 37.41 HKD to 38.59 HKD, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [2][17]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit increasing by 0.8% and 23.0% year-on-year, reaching RMB 239.4 billion and RMB 57.9 billion respectively [6][15]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to the upgrade of the beer business structure, the release of raw material cost benefits, and effective cost control under the "Three Precision" strategy [6]. - The target price for the company has been raised to HKD 35.90, reflecting a potential upside of 26.9% from the current price of HKD 28.28 [1][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 38,932 million in 2023, RMB 38,635 million in 2024, and estimated growth to RMB 39,239 million in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.6% [5][15]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,153 million in 2023 to RMB 5,807 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.5% [5][9]. - The beer business showed a revenue increase of 2.6% to RMB 231.6 billion, driven by sales volume growth of 2.2% and a slight price increase of 0.4% [6][8]. Business Segment Analysis - The beer segment's gross margin improved by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3%, while the adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 3.4 percentage points to 35.1% [6][8]. - The white liquor segment faced challenges, with a significant revenue decline of 33.7% to RMB 7.8 billion, attributed to ongoing difficulties in the business banquet scene [6][8]. - The company plans to focus on developing mass-market and light bottle liquor products to reshape its pricing structure and expand coverage in the mid-to-low-end liquor market [6]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted, with revenue estimates reduced by 1-5%, while EBITDA and net profit margins are expected to improve by 0.9-1.8 and 0-1.5 percentage points respectively [6][9].

Summary of China Resources Beer (0291.HK) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Beer (0291.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$91.7 billion / $11.7 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$90.3 billion / $11.6 billion - **Current Price**: HK$28.28 - **Target Price**: HK$37.00 - **Upside Potential**: 30.8% [1][3] Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Results**: Better-than-expected core EBIT driven by cost tailwinds and operational efficiency - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025E: Rmb39,222.3 million - 2026E: Rmb40,255.4 million - 2027E: Rmb40,940.2 million [3][12] - **EBITDA Growth**: - 2025E: Rmb10,309.9 million - 2026E: Rmb10,599.3 million - 2027E: Rmb11,128.0 million [3][12] - **EPS Growth**: - 2025E: Rmb1.70 - 2026E: Rmb1.90 - 2027E: Rmb2.05 [3][12] Strategic Insights - **Market Conditions**: The macro situation remains fluid with deflation risks, but the company is optimistic about its execution in premiumization and market share gains - **Beer Segment**: Expected mild acceleration in 2H25 with normalizing policy impacts; management emphasizes Heineken as a key driver for premiumization [1][14] - **Spirits Segment**: Potential overhang into 2H25; management plans to expand mid-range products and enhance channel profitability [1][14] Management Strategies 1. **Policy Normalization**: Signs of normalizing anti-extravagance policy observed in August, with improved run-rates for both beer and spirits [1][14] 2. **Premiumization Focus**: Continued prioritization of Heineken and enhancement of brand equity to drive high-quality growth [1][14] 3. **New Channels Growth**: Rapid growth in new channels (instant delivery, Sam's Club) expected to drive volume and mix with minimal margin challenges [1][14] 4. **Cost Control**: Focus on margin improvement and efficiency gains, including streamlining factories and reducing headcount [1][14] Financial Projections and Changes - **Recurring EPS Forecast**: Revised up by 5-6% for 2025-2027E due to improved beer sales estimates and better gross profit margin outlook [1][15] - **Sales Growth**: Expected 3.2% sales growth and 11.9% recurring EBIT growth in 2025E [1][15] - **Free Cash Flow**: Projected at Rmb5.7 billion in 1H25, with a net cash position of Rmb7 billion [1][14] Valuation Metrics - **P/E Ratios**: - 2025E: 15.2x - 2026E: 13.6x - 2027E: 12.6x [3][8] - **Dividend Yield**: Expected to increase from 2.8% in 2024 to 5.1% in 2027 [3][8] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HK$37.00, reflecting strong execution in premiumization and operational efficiency despite macroeconomic challenges [1][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (291.HK) with a target price of HKD 34.3, indicating a potential upside of 21.3% from the current price of HKD 28.3 [1][3]. Core Insights - China Resources Beer reported a 23% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 1H25, reaching RMB 5.79 billion. The core operating profit, adjusted for one-time items, grew by 11.3% to RMB 7.1 billion, surpassing market expectations due to a significant reduction in unit costs and improved gross margins [1][5]. - The company is one of the few in the beer industry that achieved positive growth in average selling prices during a weak consumption environment, with a 0.4% increase in 1H25 [1][5]. - The new management's clear business development plans and positive outlook are expected to enhance market confidence in the company's future performance, potentially leading to better stock performance compared to peers [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Sales Volume and Pricing**: In 1H25, beer sales volume increased by 2.2%, outperforming major competitors like Budweiser APAC, which saw an 8.2% decline. The average selling price rose by 0.4% due to a shift towards higher-end products, with premium and above products seeing over 10% growth [5][10]. - **Cost Management**: The unit cost decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 2.5 percentage point expansion in gross margin. The company's "Three Precision" strategy led to an 11% reduction in overall sales expenses [5][10]. - **White Spirit Business**: Despite a 34% drop in revenue from the white spirit segment due to regulatory challenges, the impact on overall performance is limited as this segment contributes a small portion to total revenue [5][10]. Financial Projections - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 39.13 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 6.09 billion, reflecting a 28.5% increase [7][10]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 14.0 for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 19.1% [7][10]. Market Positioning - The company is positioned to capture market share from competitors in the high-end segment, with significant growth opportunities in regions where its premium products are currently underrepresented [5][10].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Resources Beer (控股) Limited reported revenue of 23.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - The gross profit margin rose by 2 percentage points to 48.9% due to the high-end beer strategy and cost savings in raw material procurement [1] - Shareholder profit attributable to the company was 5.789 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23% [1] Group 2: Beer Business - The beer segment achieved an unaudited revenue of 23.161 billion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year, with sales volume reaching approximately 6.487 million kiloliters, an increase of 2.2% [1] - High-end beer products saw significant growth, with sales of premium and above beer increasing by over 10% year-on-year; "Heineken" sales grew by over 20%, while "Snow" beer sales surged by over 70% [1] Group 3: White Spirit Business - The white spirit segment reported an unaudited revenue of 0.781 billion yuan, down from 1.178 billion yuan in the same period last year, with the major product "Abstract" contributing nearly 80% of the revenue [2] - The white spirit industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, and future improvements depend on the performance during the peak seasons of Mid-Autumn and Spring Festival [2] Group 4: Management and Strategy - Following the departure of former chairman Hou Xiaohai, the current management led by Zhao Chunwu aims to continue the existing strategic direction without major changes [3] - The company is focusing on developing online business channels, which have seen significant growth, with overall GMV increasing by nearly 40% and instant retail business by nearly 50% year-on-year [3] - The company is exploring new business models, including customization and contract manufacturing, and sees instant retail as a crucial channel for future growth and consumer engagement [3] Group 5: Market Trends - Competitors like Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer are diversifying into beverage products to meet consumer demands across various consumption scenarios [4]

摩根士丹利发布研报称，因应华润啤酒(00291)于上半年向合资企业出售土地录得一次性收益，将2025 年净利润预测上调10%，2025至2027年经常性盈利预测上调1%至2%，维持润啤的"增持"评级，目标价 从34港元上调至35港元。 虽然行业环境较为艰难，但华润啤酒业务EBIT上半年仍录得14%增长，表现跑赢同业，相信通过高端 化策略及加强非即饮渠道渗透，结合持续利润率改善，盈利增长预料持续。大摩对今年下半年及全年展 望保持不变，管理层表明将持续推进高端化策略，通过喜力、雪花等核心品牌及其他高端、次高端品牌 持续提升市场份额。 ...