Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Eastern Airlines (600115) [1] Core Views - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.53 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 34% [1] - The company's capacity growth rate is leading in the industry, contributing to better-than-expected performance [1] - The report anticipates continued profitability for the airline, supported by limited supply growth in the industry and signs of recovery in business travel demand [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 106.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with a net profit of 2.1 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [8] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 39.59 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.53 billion yuan, up 34.4% year-on-year [8] - **Cost Analysis**: - Operating costs for Q3 2025 were 34.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with fuel costs decreasing by 7.4% to 11.3 billion yuan [2][8] - The cost per seat kilometer was 0.403 yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, indicating improved cost efficiency [2][8] - **Key Financial Metrics**: - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 139.38 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 781 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -0.19 yuan in 2024 to 0.04 yuan in 2025, and further to 0.27 yuan in 2026 [4] Market Position and Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a tightening of flight schedules in the new season and a positive trend in ticket prices due to recovering business travel demand [8] - The target price for the stock is set at 5.89 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price of 4.80 yuan [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic civil aviation industry in China is expected to turn profitable in 2024, with the three major state-owned airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) achieving profitability in the first three quarters of 2025 after years of losses [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance of Major Airlines - All three major state-owned airlines reported revenue growth and profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, benefiting from the summer travel peak and foreign exchange gains [2]. - Air China achieved a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan in the first three quarters, while China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines reported net profits of 2.10 billion yuan and 2.31 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The three major airlines had accumulated losses exceeding 200 billion yuan over the past five years, but signs of recovery are evident, with expectations for profitability in 2025 [3]. Group 2: International Market Growth - The international market has become a key growth area for major airlines, with significant increases in passenger turnover on international routes compared to domestic routes [4]. - For the first nine months of the year, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines reported international passenger turnover growth rates of 14.9%, 24.16%, and 19.54%, respectively, compared to domestic growth rates of 1.2%, 6.08%, and 4.10% [4]. - China Eastern Airlines has been actively expanding its international routes, including the launch of a new route from Shanghai to Buenos Aires, which will set a record for the longest single-route flight [4]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by Private Airlines - Private airlines such as Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines reported declines in net profit for the first three quarters, with Spring Airlines losing its title as the "most profitable airline" to Hainan Airlines [6]. - Despite increased flight and passenger volumes, many airlines are struggling to achieve profitability due to lower ticket prices driven by intense competition and market dynamics [7]. - The average ticket price has decreased significantly, with a drop of over 20% in February and more than 8% during the peak summer months, impacting overall profitability [7][8].

Core Points - The meeting aimed to summarize experiences in the ideological and political construction of the pilot workforce and to analyze new challenges, ensuring the integration of party building and business development for high-quality growth in the aviation sector [4][8] - The meeting gathered leaders from 16 major airlines and regulatory bodies in the Southwest region to discuss the foundational and strategic importance of pilot ideological and political construction [4][6] - The meeting emphasized the need for a stable and safe pilot workforce, aligning with the directives from the central government and the Civil Aviation Administration [4][6] Summary by Sections Meeting Objectives - The meeting was convened to discuss the ideological and political construction of the pilot workforce, reflecting on the recent 20th Central Committee's decisions and the transition from the 14th Five-Year Plan to the 15th [4][6] - It served as a concrete action to ensure safety and promote high-quality development in the Southwest aviation sector [4][8] Participant Contributions - Representatives from various airlines shared valuable experiences, practices, and insights regarding the improvement of pilot ideological and political construction [4][5] - The discussions were multi-faceted, providing a broad perspective on existing issues and generating actionable suggestions for future work [4][5] Key Takeaways - The meeting concluded with three main requirements: enhancing party leadership, improving political awareness for winter safety operations, and ensuring the completion of annual tasks [6][7] - A summary of four key opinions was provided, focusing on reviewing progress, addressing existing challenges, setting clear goals, and employing systematic thinking for pilot workforce management [7][8]

Core Insights - The three major Chinese airlines, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China, reported strong financial performance in Q3, marking a significant recovery from previous losses and achieving profitability for the first three quarters post-pandemic [1][7] Group 1: Financial Performance - China Southern Airlines reported total revenue of 137.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.23%, with a net profit of 2.31 billion yuan, up 17.40% [2][3] - China Eastern Airlines achieved total revenue of 106.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.73%, with a net profit of 2.10 billion yuan, marking a significant turnaround from losses [4][5] - Air China reported total revenue of 129.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.31%, with a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan, up 37.31% [5][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recovery in domestic travel demand and the gradual restoration of international flights contributed to the improved financial results of the airlines [1][7] - China Southern Airlines has focused on enhancing service experience and dynamic pricing strategies to strengthen its competitive edge against low-cost carriers and high-speed rail [3][6] - The overall recovery of the aviation industry is still ongoing, with international capacity not yet reaching pre-2019 levels, indicating potential for future growth [3][6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Despite the recovery of the three major state-owned airlines, private carriers like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines experienced declines in profitability during the same period [7][8] - Hainan Airlines has emerged as the most profitable airline in the first three quarters, surpassing Spring Airlines, attributed to effective capacity management and operational efficiency [7][8] - The industry is facing challenges such as intense competition and pricing pressures, which have affected profitability across various airlines [8][9]

截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國東方航空股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00670 | 說明 | | 中國東方航空股份有限公司H股 | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,176,777,777 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 5,176,777,777 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,176,777,777 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 5,176,777,777 | | 2. ...

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a notable increase of 2.36% on November 3, with China Eastern Airlines leading the gains, reflecting positive market sentiment in the industry [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3976.52, up 0.55%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, up 0.19% [1]. - Key stocks in the aviation sector showed significant gains, with China Eastern Airlines rising by 4.37% to a closing price of 5.01, and Southern Airlines increasing by 4.20% to 6.95 [1]. Group 2: Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The aviation sector saw a total trading volume of 2.11 billion yuan, with China Eastern Airlines contributing 11.12 billion yuan in transaction value [1]. - The sector experienced a net outflow of 70.22 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 81.81 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Individual Stock Analysis - China Eastern Airlines led the sector with a closing price of 5.01 and a trading volume of 2.25 million shares [1]. - Hainan Airlines Holdings and China National Aviation Corporation also performed well, with increases of 3.39% and 3.31%, respectively [1]. - Conversely, Xiamen Airport and Spring Airlines saw declines of 1.89% and 0.37%, respectively [2]. Group 4: Detailed Capital Flow - Southern Airlines had a significant net outflow of 67.54 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 51.26 million yuan [3]. - Hainan Airlines Holdings and China National Aviation Corporation also faced net outflows from institutional and speculative funds, but retail investors showed positive net inflows [3].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國東方航空股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月3日 FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00670 | 說明 | | 中國東方航空股份有限公司H股 | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,176,777,777 | | 0 | | 5,176,777,777 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,176,777,777 | | 0 | | 5,176,777,777 | ...

Group 1 - The aviation stocks have rebounded, with increases of over 4% for some companies as of the latest report [1] - China National Aviation Holdings reported a 11% year-on-year decrease in net profit for Q3, while China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines reported increases of 34% and 20% respectively [2] - Morgan Stanley maintains a constructive outlook on mainland airlines despite China National's poor Q3 performance, believing that improving business travel demand will support pricing power due to high asset utilization [2] Group 2 - Cathay Pacific Securities noted that during recent important domestic meetings, passenger load factors and domestic ticket prices have shown year-on-year increases, with an estimated 3-4% rise in oil-inclusive ticket prices for October [3] - The airline industry is expected to see a reversal in performance growth in Q3 2025, surpassing Q3 2019 results, indicating a potential upward trend in profitability [3] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to help reduce losses in Q4 and achieve profitability for the year, with a positive outlook for the airline sector driven by market-driven ticket pricing and steady demand growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong airline stocks have shown a recovery, with notable increases in share prices for major airlines as of November 3rd [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China National Aviation (00753.HK) increased by 3.33%, reaching HKD 5.9 [1] - Eastern Airlines (00670.HK) rose by 3.01%, trading at HKD 4.11 [1] - Southern Airlines (01055.HK) saw a rise of 2.78%, priced at HKD 4.81 [1] - Cathay Pacific (00293.HK) gained 1.26%, with shares at HKD 11.21 [1]

Group 1 - The aviation stocks have shown a recovery, with China National Aviation (601111) up 3.33% to HKD 5.9, Eastern Airlines (00670) up 3.01% to HKD 4.11, Southern Airlines (600029) up 2.78% to HKD 4.81, and Cathay Pacific (00293) up 1.26% to HKD 11.21 [1] - Recent quarterly reports indicate that in Q3, China National Aviation's net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 11%, while Eastern Airlines' net profit increased by 34% and Southern Airlines' net profit increased by 20% [1] - Morgan Stanley noted that despite the poor Q3 performance of China National Aviation and the parent company's suggestion for capital injection, these factors do not alter their constructive view on the upward cycle of mainland airlines [1] Group 2 - Cathay Securities pointed out that during recent important domestic meetings, passenger load factors and domestic ticket prices have shown a year-on-year increase, with estimates indicating a 3-4% rise in domestic oil-inclusive ticket prices for October [2] - The traditional seasonal impact on pre-sales is weaker than in previous years, and the industry remains optimistic about continued demand from business travelers [2] - A-share airline companies are expected to achieve counter-cyclical growth in Q3 2025, exceeding Q3 2019 levels for three consecutive years, indicating an upward trend and potential for profitability [2]