Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The overall delivery capacity of major real estate companies in China is expected to decrease in 2024 compared to 2023, with nearly 60% of companies experiencing a decline of over 30% in delivery scale, and a median decline of 38% [14] - The central government has increased loan support for "white list" projects to enhance delivery capabilities, with over 5 trillion yuan approved for loans, aiming to deliver 3.73 million housing units by the end of 2024 [13] - The focus of real estate companies is shifting from product design to quality delivery and customer experience, indicating a trend towards a more integrated delivery and service system [17][21] Summary by Sections Delivery Capacity Rankings - The report lists the top 30 real estate companies in China based on their delivery capacity for 2024, with Green City China, China Overseas Property, and China Resources Land leading the rankings [2] Delivery Scale and Performance - The delivery scale of major real estate companies is shrinking, with significant reductions in the number of units delivered compared to previous years, reflecting ongoing market challenges [14][15] - Specific companies such as Country Garden and Sunac China are highlighted for their delivery volumes, with Country Garden delivering approximately 380,000 units [15] Product and Service Integration - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating delivery with service, moving from merely delivering products to enhancing the overall living experience for residents [21][23] - Companies are increasingly focusing on creating community engagement and personalized services to improve customer satisfaction post-delivery [21] Quality of Delivery - The report identifies a trend towards enhancing the quality of both indoor and outdoor delivery, with a focus on functional upgrades and aesthetic improvements [19][20] - Projects that have previously won awards for their product quality are noted for their strong delivery performance, setting benchmarks for high-quality delivery in the industry [22][23]

Core Insights - Leading real estate companies, China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI) and China Resources Land, are facing challenges in achieving expected growth despite their market positions as top players in the industry [1][2] - Both companies are exploring growth opportunities beyond traditional development, focusing on operational business and service quality [2][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, COLI reported a contract sales amount of 310.69 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, with a sales area of 11.49 million square meters, down 14% [1] - COLI's net profit for 2024 was approximately 17.787 billion yuan, a decline of 34.24% year-on-year, with attributable net profit down 38.95% to about 15.636 billion yuan [1] - China Resources Land achieved contract sales of approximately 261.1 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, while its total revenue reached 278.799 billion yuan, an increase of 11% [1][3] - The attributable net profit for China Resources Land was 25.577 billion yuan, down 18.45% year-on-year [1][3] Profitability Trends - Both companies have seen significant fluctuations in profitability, with COLI's operating revenue dropping from 202.52 billion yuan in 2023 to 185.15 billion yuan in 2024, and a gross margin decline of 2.62 percentage points to 17.7% [3][4] - China Resources Land's gross margin also decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 21.6%, with its development sales gross margin at 16.8%, down 3.9% [3][4] Strategic Focus - Both companies are maintaining investment intensity while focusing on high-tier cities, with China Resources Land emphasizing a strategy of urban concentration and optimization of resources [4][6] - COLI plans to continue its investment strategy in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, with a focus on project certainty and cash flow [4][7] Transition to Operational Business - China Resources Land has established a strong operational business model, contributing significantly to its profits, with recurring revenue reaching 41.6 billion yuan in 2024, up 6.6% year-on-year [6][7] - COLI is in the process of developing its operational business, with commercial revenue of 7.13 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [6][7] Future Outlook - China Resources Land aims for its recurring income to contribute over 45% to core net profit by 2025, with a long-term goal of achieving a balanced contribution of around 50% from both development and operational businesses [6][7] - COLI is expected to enhance its operational income and profit levels as quality properties come into operation, while also planning to establish public REITs [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for China Resources Land (01109.HK) with a target price of HKD 34.86 per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 25.9 [1][3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the increase in the proportion of recurring business profits supports the stability of the company's performance and shareholder returns. The operational real estate business, primarily focused on shopping centers, has sustainable growth potential both internally and externally. The gross profit margin of the development and sales business may gradually stabilize, and the ongoing transformation towards asset management is viewed positively. The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of CNY 3.30, CNY 3.50, and CNY 3.89 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -8%, +6%, and +11% [1][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported total revenue of CNY 278.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18% to CNY 25.58 billion, primarily due to a decline in gross profit margins from development sales [2][12]. - The company’s core net profit for 2024 is projected to be CNY 25.4 billion, reflecting a 9% decline year-on-year. The revenue breakdown shows that the development sales business, operational real estate business, light asset management business, and ecosystem factor business generated revenues of CNY 237.15 billion, CNY 23.3 billion, CNY 12.13 billion, and CNY 6.22 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 5%, 14%, and 1% [2][10]. - The overall gross profit margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 21.6%, with the development sales business gross margin dropping by 3.9 percentage points to 16.8%. In contrast, the operational real estate business gross margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 70% [2][10]. Business Segment Insights - The shopping center segment opened 16 new centers in 2024, with retail sales and rental income continuing to grow. The company plans to maintain a stable opening pace over the next four years, which is expected to support rental income growth [8][10]. - The office rental income decreased by 9% to CNY 1.9 billion, with an occupancy rate dropping by 7 percentage points to 75% [9]. - Hotel revenue also saw a decline of 11% to CNY 2.1 billion, with a slight increase in occupancy rate to 64% [9]. Asset Management and Financial Health - The company’s asset management scale reached CNY 462.1 billion, an 8% increase year-on-year, with shopping centers contributing CNY 297.9 billion to this total [11][12]. - The debt structure has been optimized, with a weighted average financing cost of 3.11%, a decrease of 45 basis points year-on-year. The net interest-bearing debt ratio stands at 31.9% [12][12]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The core net profit distribution rate is maintained at 37%, with a proposed final dividend of CNY 1.119 per share, resulting in an estimated dividend yield of approximately 5.5% based on the report's release date closing price [12][12].

导 读 3月土地市场成交量跌价升，呈现点状火热的态势；预计重点城市土地热度将继续维持，投资持 续筑底， 央国企保持在核心城市拿地积极性。 ☉ 文／克而瑞研究中心 | | | | 2025年1-3月 ·中国房地产企业 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 企业名称 | 新增土地价值 (亿元) | 排名 | 企业名称 | 新增土地建面 (万平方米) | | 1 | 未润黑瓶 | 329 4 | 1 | 绿城中国 | 118.0 | | 2 | 中海地产 | 298.0 | 2 | 华润置地 | 104. 1 | | 3 | 绿城中国 | 287.0 | 3 | 中海地产 | 98. 4 | | 4 | 招商蛇口 | 217.7 | 4 | 招商蛇口 | 98.2 | | 5 | 中国金茂 | 199.3 | 5 | 保利发展 | 88.9 | | 6 | 滨江集团 | 195.8 | 6 | 海泰置业 | 86.9 | | 7 | 建发房产 | 193.9 | 7 | 印象置业 | 71.9 | | 8 | 保利发展 | 173.9 | 8 | 邦泰 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction area has shown a month-on-month increase, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [3] - The sales decline is continuing to narrow, with land transaction volumes decreasing, which is suppressing new construction momentum [3] - The first quarter of 2025 has seen a preliminary stabilization in sales, supported by more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [8] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three months of 2025, the top 100 real estate companies reported a total sales amount of 784.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, with a cumulative equity sales area of 57.67 million square meters, down 5.0% year-on-year [5] - The average sales price for the top 100 companies was 19,960.6 yuan per square meter [5] - The sales performance among different tiers of companies showed low differentiation, with the top 10, 50, and 100 companies experiencing year-on-year sales declines of 8.4%, 7.1%, and 7.3% respectively [6] Company Insights - Poly Development maintained the highest sales scale in the first quarter, with a total sales amount of 63 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2% [7] - China Overseas Property experienced a significant year-on-year sales decline of 22.9% [7] - Companies like Yuexiu Property and Huafa achieved impressive sales growth, with year-on-year increases of 42.0% and 44.8% respectively [7] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong fundamentals in urban areas and those capable of capturing the demand from improvement-type customers, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Jinmao [8] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery include New City Holdings and Longfor Group [8] - The second-hand housing transaction scale and penetration rate are expected to continue rising, indicating a promising outlook for the real estate after-service market [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][18]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in its performance, achieving a revenue of RMB 278.8 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11%. The core net profit was RMB 25.42 billion, with a significant contribution from recurring business [6][7]. - The overall gross margin and net profit margin for 2024 were 21.6% and 9.2%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [6][7]. - The company maintained a dividend payout ratio of 37%, with an expected annual dividend of RMB 1.319 per share [6][7]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 2,511 billion in 2023, RMB 2,788 billion in 2024, and expected growth to RMB 3,950 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.6% [4][21]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 25.6 billion, with a decline of 18.5% from the previous year, but expected to recover in subsequent years [4][21]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 21% from 2025 onwards, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to be around 8.5% by 2027 [4][21]. Market Position and Business Segments - The company achieved a contract signing amount of RMB 261.1 billion in 2024, ranking third in the industry, with a market share in 25 major cities [9][10]. - The operational performance of shopping centers reached a retail sales figure of RMB 195.3 billion, with an operating profit margin of 61%, marking a historical high [10][11]. - The asset management business grew to a scale of RMB 462.1 billion by the end of 2024, indicating a strong foothold in the market [11][12]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to have an EPS of RMB 3.46 for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10-11 times, suggesting a reasonable market capitalization range of RMB 269.5 billion to RMB 296.5 billion [18][19]. - The estimated fair value per share is projected to be between HKD 37.80 and HKD 41.58 [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Insights - The company is a rare diversified real estate developer in China, with financial, operational, and brand advantages that have helped improve its sales ranking despite market challenges. The company has ample and high-quality land reserves, ensuring stable future sales. The pressure from impairments has been relatively well-managed, and new land acquisitions are expected to be profitable, indicating solid performance and high realization rates [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 278.8 billion (up 11.0%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 25.6 billion (down 18.5%). The core net profit was 25.42 billion (down 8.5%), with a comprehensive gross margin of 21.6% (down 3.5 percentage points) and a dividend payout ratio of 36.9%, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.6% [6][9]. Sales and Market Position - The company’s total sales for 2024 were 261.1 billion (down 15.0%), with a market share increase to 2.7%, marking its entry into the top three in the industry. In 2024, the company acquired 29 projects with a total investment of 77.58 billion (down 56.1%), indicating a conservative approach in the first half of the year but a quicker investment pace as the market improved towards the end of the year [6][9]. Operational Efficiency - As a leader in commercial real estate, the company has a strong competitive edge in various aspects such as layout, leasing, operations, and luxury retail. In 2024, the retail sales from shopping centers reached 195.3 billion (up 19.2%), with rental income of 19.3 billion (up 8.4%). The company plans to open six new shopping centers annually from 2025 to 2028, increasing the total to 116 by the end of 2028 [2][6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable outlook for future performance, with projected net profits attributable to shareholders of 26.2 billion, 27.0 billion, and 28.2 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 2%, 3%, and 5%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are forecasted to be 6.4, 6.2, and 6.0 [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 278.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.0%. The development business contributed 237.15 billion yuan, growing by 11.8%, while recurring income reached 41.65 billion yuan, up by 6.6% [1]. - The company has become a leader in domestic commercial operations, with its "Wanda" shopping centers contributing significantly to stable cash flow and valuation differentiation. In 2024, rental income from shopping centers, offices, and hotels was 19.4 billion, 1.88 billion, and 2.07 billion yuan respectively, with shopping centers opening 16 new locations [1]. - The comprehensive gross profit margin for 2024 was 21.6%, with the development gross margin declining by 3.9 percentage points to 16.8% due to industry downturns, while the property business gross margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 70.0% [2]. - The company ranked third in sales with a contracted amount of 261.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% year-on-year, and a market share of 2.70% [2]. - The company has maintained a healthy leverage level with a debt-to-asset ratio of 55.6% and a net interest-bearing debt ratio of 31.9% [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.58 billion yuan, down 18.5% year-on-year, while core net profit was 25.42 billion yuan, down 8.5% [2]. - The company’s financing cost was 3.11%, which is among the lowest in the industry, benefiting from its state-owned enterprise background [3]. - The asset management scale reached 462.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.6 billion yuan, supported by the establishment of dual REITs platforms [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 274.66 billion, 279.27 billion, and 264.68 billion yuan respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 26.00 billion, 26.46 billion, and 26.57 billion yuan [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 278.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.0%. The development business contributed 237.15 billion yuan, growing by 11.8% year-on-year, while recurring income reached 41.65 billion yuan, up 6.6% year-on-year, accounting for 14.9% of total revenue [1]. - The company has become a leader in domestic commercial operations, with its "Wanda" shopping centers contributing stable cash flow and valuation differentiation. In 2024, rental income from shopping centers, offices, and hotels was 19.4 billion, 1.88 billion, and 2.07 billion yuan respectively, with shopping centers opening 16 new locations and achieving a retail sales growth of 19.2% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s comprehensive gross margin was 21.6%, with a development gross margin of 16.8%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the property management gross margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 70.0% [2]. - The company ranked third in sales with a contracted sales amount of 261.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% year-on-year, and a market share of 2.70% [2]. - The company has maintained a healthy leverage level with a debt-to-asset ratio of 55.6% and a net interest-bearing debt ratio of 31.9% as of the end of 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 25.58 billion yuan, down 18.5% year-on-year, and a core net profit of 25.42 billion yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year. The contribution of recurring income to core net profit increased to 40.7%, surpassing 10.34 billion yuan for the first time [2]. - The company’s asset management scale reached 462.1 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 34.6 billion yuan, supported by the establishment of dual REITs platforms [3]. Future Projections - The report adjusts profit forecasts for the company, estimating revenues of 274.66 billion, 279.27 billion, and 264.68 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 26.00 billion, 26.46 billion, and 26.57 billion yuan for the same years [4].

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Land is implementing a strategy of adjusting pace, structure, and layout to optimize land reserve resources and structure [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, China Resources Land reported a total revenue of 278.799 billion yuan, an 11% increase year-on-year, marking a five-year high; however, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.45% to 25.577 billion yuan, and core net profit fell by 8.5% to 25.42 billion yuan [2] - The company's profit level has dropped to a near six-year low, slightly above 2018 levels, indicating that scale growth has not translated into profit conversion [2] - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to a decrease in gross margin, which fell by 3.6 percentage points to 21.6% in 2024, with the gross margin for development and sales business at 16.8%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] Business Segmentation - The development and sales business achieved a revenue of 237.15 billion yuan, an 11.8% increase year-on-year, while recurring business revenue (including operating real estate and asset management) reached 41.65 billion yuan, up 6.6%, accounting for 14.9% of total revenue [3] - The core net profit from recurring business grew by 8.2% to 10.3 billion yuan, marking the first time it surpassed 10 billion yuan, with its contribution to core net profit rising by 6.3 percentage points to 40.7% [3] Commercial Real Estate Performance - Despite a slowing consumer market, the shopping centers under China Resources Land achieved a retail sales figure of 195.3 billion yuan, a 19% increase year-on-year, with rental income of 19.35 billion yuan and an operating profit margin of 61% [4] - The company opened 16 new shopping centers in 2024, the highest in its history, with an average opening rate exceeding 95% [4] Investment Strategy - In 2024, China Resources Land acquired 29 new projects, adding approximately 3.93 million square meters of land reserves with an investment amount of 52.6 billion yuan, maintaining a top-three position in investment intensity within the industry [4] - The company focuses on urban concentration and deep cultivation, with 94% of investments in first- and second-tier cities, and 72% in core cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou [4] Inventory Management - China Resources Land is actively increasing inventory reduction efforts and utilizing supportive central policies to enhance land revitalization, achieving significant results in resource exchange [5] - The company’s land reserves in first- and second-tier cities account for 82%, meeting development needs [5] Market Outlook - The new president of China Resources Land, Xu Rong, noted that the combination of policies to stabilize the real estate market has effectively boosted market confidence and reduced purchasing costs, leading to a rapid recovery in market activity [6][7] - Despite the recovery, high inventory pressure remains, necessitating a restructured supply-demand balance in the long term [7] - The company emphasizes the need for enhanced capabilities in precise investment, refined operations, and high-quality products as the market enters a lean development phase [7]