Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Land (1109 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 31.68, indicating a potential upside of 23.0% from the current price of HKD 25.75 [2][6][10]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing stable development across its diversified business segments while maintaining its dividend payout ratio. Despite a decline in profit margins, the company has managed to sustain its dividend rate [2][6]. - The report highlights that property delivery increases in 2024 will drive property development revenue growth by 11.8% to RMB 237.15 billion, contributing to an overall revenue increase of 11.0% to RMB 278.80 billion [6][7]. - The company’s net debt ratio is projected to remain low at 31.9% by the end of 2024, with a decrease in average financing costs to 3.11%, the lowest in the industry [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 251.14 billion, increasing to RMB 278.80 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0% [5][7]. - Core profit is expected to decline from RMB 27.77 billion in 2023 to RMB 25.42 billion in 2024, reflecting an 8.5% decrease [5][7]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to decrease by 3.6 percentage points to 21.6% in 2024, influenced by a drop in property development gross margin [6][7]. Business Performance - The company’s contract sales amount is expected to reach RMB 261.1 billion in 2024, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, but it ranks third in the industry [6][7]. - The asset management scale has increased by 8.1% to RMB 462.1 billion, with shopping center revenue showing a strong performance, growing by 19.2% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company plans to increase its operational shopping centers from 92 to 116 by the end of 2028, which is expected to drive revenue growth in the operational real estate segment by over 10% annually for the next three years [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Land (1109 HK) with a target price of HKD 31.68, indicating a potential upside of 23.0% from the current price of HKD 25.75 [1][2][10]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing stable development across its diversified business segments while maintaining its dividend payout ratio. Despite a decline in profit margins, the company has managed to sustain its dividend rate [2][6]. - The report highlights a projected revenue growth of 11.0% year-on-year for 2024, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 278.8 billion, driven by increased property deliveries [6][7]. - The company’s net profit is forecasted to decline by 18.5% to RMB 25.6 billion in 2024, primarily due to a decrease in gross profit margin [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is reported at RMB 251.1 billion, with a projected increase to RMB 278.8 billion in 2024 [5][7]. - The gross profit margin is expected to decrease from 25.2% in 2023 to 21.6% in 2024, reflecting a 3.6 percentage point decline [7][11]. - The company’s net debt ratio is projected to remain low at 31.9% by the end of 2024, with a decrease in average financing costs to 3.11%, the lowest in the industry [6][7]. Business Performance - The company’s property development revenue is expected to grow by 11.8% to RMB 237.2 billion in 2024, supported by increased property deliveries [6][7]. - Contract sales for 2024 are projected to reach RMB 261.1 billion, although this represents a 15% decline year-on-year [6][7]. - The asset management segment has shown an 8.1% increase in scale, with operational income from shopping centers, offices, and hotels totaling approximately RMB 193 billion, RMB 18.8 billion, and RMB 20.7 billion respectively [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a stable sales performance in 2025, supported by a total saleable value of approximately RMB 500.9 billion [6][7]. - The report suggests that the stable performance of the investment property portfolio will help mitigate the impact of declining industry gross margins, maintaining overall profit stability [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, China Resources Land achieved a contracted sales amount of 261.1 billion yuan, ranking third in the industry, despite a year-on-year decrease of 15% in sales amount and 13.3% in sales area [2][6]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The sales contribution from the top 10 cities reached 63%, with a year-on-year increase of 5 percentage points, while the sales proportion from first-tier cities (including Hong Kong) rose to 38%, up by 9 percentage points [2][6]. - The overall sell-through rate for 2024 was approximately 55.4%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Group 2: Land Acquisition and Investment - In 2024, the company acquired 29 new projects with a land investment equity price of 52.65 billion yuan, resulting in an equity land acquisition sales ratio of approximately 0.29, a significant decrease from 0.52 in 2023 [8][10]. - The proportion of land investment in first and second-tier cities accounted for 94% of the new investments [8]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 278.8 billion yuan in 2024, an 11% increase year-on-year, while core net profit was 25.42 billion yuan, down 8.5% [3][11]. - The comprehensive gross profit margin was 21.6%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in the development settlement gross profit margin [11][15]. Group 4: Financial Stability and Optimization - As of the end of 2024, the company held cash reserves of 133.21 billion yuan, a 16.5% increase year-on-year, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.92 [18]. - The net debt ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 31.9%, maintaining a low level within the industry [18]. Group 5: Integrated Business Model - The company adhered to the "urban investment and development operator" strategic positioning, maintaining stable growth in recurring business revenue [4][21]. - The asset management scale reached 462.1 billion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth [21][22].

Core Insights - China Resources Land has demonstrated strong resilience in a challenging real estate market, achieving a revenue of 278.8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11% [1] - The company has adopted a "3+1" integrated business model, which includes development sales, operating real estate, light asset management, and ecosystem business, positioning itself as a "city investment and development operator" [1][2] - The company's strategic focus has allowed it to maintain a top-three position in the industry for development sales and achieve significant growth in its commercial REITs [1][2] Business Model and Performance - The "3+1" business model has proven effective in enhancing the company's anti-cyclical capabilities, with development sales achieving record-high rankings and customer satisfaction exceeding industry averages by 15 percentage points [2] - The operating real estate segment generated a retail revenue of 195.3 billion yuan, with 16 new shopping centers opened in 2024 and an average opening rate exceeding 95% [2][8] - The light asset management business has gained recognition in the market, providing comprehensive services from project planning to property management, further enhancing the company's brand influence [4][9] Ecosystem and Growth - The ecosystem business has shown significant growth, with revenues from various segments including city construction, rental housing, and cultural and sports venue operations contributing to a total of 6.22 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - The rental housing segment has addressed urban housing issues by providing high-quality rental options, while the city construction business has supported government and enterprise projects [5] - The cultural and sports business has actively promoted urban cultural and sports development, hosting various large-scale events [5] Asset Management Transformation - The successful transformation in asset management has created a multiplier effect, with the commercial REITs launched in March 2024 achieving an EBITDA of 351 million yuan and a budget completion rate of 112% [6][7] - The operating efficiency of the operating real estate business has steadily improved, contributing to a stable cash flow for the company [8] - The establishment of multiple REIT platforms has allowed the company to convert long-term assets into tradable financial products, maximizing asset value [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Land reported a significant increase in revenue but a decline in net profit, indicating a "revenue growth without profit growth" scenario for the year 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for 2024 reached RMB 278.8 billion, marking an 11% year-on-year increase, the highest in nearly five years [1][2]. - Shareholders' net profit was RMB 25.6 billion, a decrease of 18.45% compared to the previous year, reaching the lowest level in five years [1][2][3]. - The overall gross profit margin fell to 21.6%, down from 30.9% in 2020, representing a decline of 9.3 percentage points over five years [3]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The cost of sales increased significantly, with sales costs amounting to RMB 218.5 billion, up from RMB 188 billion the previous year [2]. - The gross profit for 2024 was RMB 60.3 billion, down from RMB 63.2 billion in 2023 [2]. - The gross margin for the development and sales business decreased from 29.1% in 2020 to 16.8% in 2024, a drop of 12.3 percentage points [3]. Regional Performance - The company reported varying performance across regions, with the East China region contributing the highest contract amount at RMB 73.4 billion, accounting for 28.1% of total contracts [5]. - The Central and Western regions showed strong growth, with contract amounts of RMB 62.3 billion and RMB 32.2 billion, respectively, indicating a strategic focus on these areas [5]. Strategic Insights - The decline in profitability is attributed to the company's strategy of acquiring land at high premiums and adopting a "price for volume" sales approach, leading to reduced margins [5]. - The company’s recurring income business showed promising growth, with revenues of RMB 41.6 billion, a 6.6% increase, and core net profit contribution rising to RMB 103 billion, up 8.2% [6]. - The asset management business is highlighted as a key growth driver, with assets under management reaching RMB 462.1 billion, reflecting an 8.1% growth [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 32.72 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 278.8 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11%, while core net profit decreased by 8.5% to RMB 25.4 billion, aligning with market expectations. The company has successfully established a second growth curve, demonstrating resilience during industry downturns [1]. - The shopping center business showed robust expansion, with retail sales increasing by 19.2% year-on-year and same-store sales growth of 4.6%, surpassing the overall retail growth rate. The rental income from shopping centers rose by 8% to RMB 19.3 billion [2]. - The development business remains in the top tier of the industry, with contract sales declining by 15% to RMB 261.1 billion in 2024, but still outperforming the industry average. The company plans to launch new projects worth RMB 500.9 billion in 2025, indicating a potential recovery in sales [3]. - The company maintains a leading financing advantage, with asset management scale reaching RMB 462.1 billion, and a significant portion of this is from shopping centers. The financing cost decreased by 45 basis points to 3.11%, and cash reserves grew by 16.5% to RMB 133.2 billion [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 278.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11%. The core net profit was RMB 25.4 billion, down 8.5% from the previous year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 3.60 [1][7]. Business Segments - The shopping center segment reported a retail sales increase of 19.2% year-on-year, with an overall occupancy rate of 97.1%. The company opened 16 new shopping centers during the year, contributing to an 8% increase in rental income [2]. - The development segment saw a contract sales decline of 15% to RMB 261.1 billion, but the company remains optimistic about a sales rebound in 2025, with plans to launch new projects worth RMB 500.9 billion [3]. Financing and Valuation - The asset management platform has a scale of RMB 462.1 billion, with a focus on rental housing and commercial real estate REITs. The financing cost has decreased, and cash reserves have increased, indicating a strong financial position [4]. - The estimated book value per share (BPS) for 2025 is RMB 40.50, with a target price set at HKD 32.72, reflecting a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.75 times [5].

Core Insights - China Resources Land's performance in 2024 shows significant growth in revenue and profit, with total revenue reaching 278.8 billion yuan, an 11% increase year-on-year, and net profit at 33.678 billion yuan, despite a 9.7% decline in profit [1][2] - The company achieved a record core net profit of 25.42 billion yuan, with recurring business core net profit contributing 10.34 billion yuan, marking a 6.3 percentage point increase to 40.7% of total profit [1] - The company's sales performance is strong, with a total contracted sales amount of 261.1 billion yuan, accounting for 2.7% of national residential sales, ranking third in the industry [1] Revenue Structure - Development sales revenue was 237.15 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year, while operational real estate revenue reached 23.3 billion yuan, a 4.8% increase [2] - Light asset management business generated 12.13 billion yuan, growing 14%, and recurring business income totaled 41.65 billion yuan, up 6.6% [2] - The company secured 29 projects last year, with an equity investment of 52.6 billion yuan, focusing 94% of investments in first and second-tier cities [2] Financial Position - As of the end of last year, the company held cash reserves of 133.21 billion yuan, a 16.5% increase, with total borrowings amounting to 259.78 billion yuan [3] - The weighted average cost of debt financing was 3.11%, a decrease of 45 basis points, maintaining the lowest level in the industry [3] Operational Highlights - The company opened 16 shopping centers last year, with a total of 92 operational centers and an average opening rate of 95% [4] - Retail sales from shopping centers reached 195.3 billion yuan, a 9.2% increase, with an overall operating profit margin of 61%, the highest in history [5] - The asset management business reached 462.1 billion yuan, with the commercial REIT launched in March 2024 achieving an EBITDA of 351 million yuan [5] Business Strategy - The company emphasizes a "light and heavy" business model, balancing development and operational real estate, which is expected to support long-term performance [6] - The management focuses on cash flow safety and prioritizes investments in high-energy areas of first and second-tier cities, with 72% of investments in core cities [2][6] - The company has expanded its property management services to 173 cities, managing a total area of 4.5 billion square meters, with a 5.9% year-on-year increase [6]

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Land reported a revenue of 278.8 billion yuan for 2024, an 11% year-on-year increase, while core net profit decreased by 8.5% to 25.42 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The revenue from development and sales business reached 237.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, with a signed contract amount of 261.1 billion yuan, but the signed area decreased by 13.3% [3] - The gross profit margin for the development and sales business fell to 16.8%, significantly down from 29.1% in 2020 [3] - Operating income from investment properties was 23.3 billion yuan, a 4.8% increase, while light asset management business revenue grew by 14% to 12.13 billion yuan [4][5] Group 2: Land Acquisition and Investment Strategy - The company acquired 29 plots of land for a total price of 77.58 billion yuan, with a focus on first and second-tier cities, which accounted for 82% of total land reserves [2] - The total land reserve area reached approximately 51.94 million square meters by the end of 2024, with a focus on high-quality development [2] Group 3: Cash Flow and Debt Management - The company reported cash reserves of 133.21 billion yuan and total borrowings of 259.78 billion yuan, with a net interest-bearing debt ratio of 31.9% [5] - The average debt financing cost decreased by 45 basis points to 3.11% compared to the end of 2023 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Land (01109.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown stable performance in revenue recognition and has a recurring profit contribution exceeding 10 billion [5] - Due to the industry's sales decline, profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised down, with new projections for 2027 introduced, estimating net profits of 28.99 billion, 31.70 billion, and 34.91 billion for 2025-2027 respectively [5] - The company maintains a strong market share and has a robust land reserve to support future revenue recognition [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 278.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and a net profit of 25.6 billion, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year [6] - The gross margin was 21.6%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a development business gross margin of 16.8% [6] - The company had a cash and bank balance of 133.2 billion, an increase of 16.5% year-on-year, and a dividend per share of 1.319, with a payout ratio rising to 37% [6] Recurring Business Contribution - The recurring revenue for 2024 was 41.6 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, with a recurring core net profit of 10.3 billion, an increase of 8.2% [7] - The shopping center segment generated rental income of 19.3 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 76.0% [7] - The company opened 16 new shopping malls in 2024, bringing the total to 92 [7] Sales and Market Position - In 2024, the company achieved sales of 261.1 billion, ranking among the top three in the industry, with a market share of 2.7% [8] - The company acquired 29 plots of land in 2024, adding 3.93 million square meters to its land reserve, with 94% located in first and second-tier cities [8] - The total saleable resources amounted to 500.9 billion, with 89% located in first and second-tier cities [8] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 4.07, 4.45, and 4.90 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 5.9, 5.4, and 4.9 [9] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 9.4% in 2024 to 12.6% in 2027 [9]

公 司 报 告 房地产 2025 年 03 月 27 日 华润置地(1109.HK) 均衡开拓，稳中精进 推荐（维持） 股价：25.85 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 房地产 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.crland.com.hk | | 大股东/持股 | 华润（集团）有限公司/59.55% | | 实际控制人 | 国务院国资委 | | 总股本(百万股) | 7130.94 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 0 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 7130.94 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1701.15 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 0 | | 每股净资产(元) | 38.21 | | 资产负债率(%) | 64.84 | 行情走势图 | 杨侃 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514080002 | | | BQV514 | | | YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn | | 郑茜文 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060520090003 | | | ZHENGXIWEN239@pingan.com.c ...