Core Insights - The report indicates a recovery signal in the real estate market, with private enterprises strategically acquiring high-premium land parcels, reflecting a restoration of confidence in the sector [4][8][30] - The supply of residential land in first, second, and third-tier cities has shown a mixed trend, with third-tier cities experiencing an increase in both quantity and price, while first and second-tier cities face declines [5][19][30] Group 1: Land Acquisition Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the top 50 real estate companies added a total of 3,398.59 million square meters of land, marking an 11.45% year-on-year increase [8][11] - Major players like China Overseas Land & Investment, Poly Developments, and Greentown China led in land acquisition, with respective land reserves of 309.37 million square meters, 241.97 million square meters, and 206.03 million square meters [11][30] - The average land acquisition price in July was 5,471.24 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 34% month-on-month decline but an 18.02% year-on-year increase [24][27] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The total number of residential land supply in first, second, and third-tier cities was 437 plots, with a total planned construction area of 2,612.05 million square meters, showing a 4.22% month-on-month decline and a 29.61% year-on-year decline [5][16] - The starting floor price for land was 3,931 yuan per square meter, down 15.07% month-on-month [5][19] - Third-tier cities saw a 21.28% increase in the number of plots and a 22.03% increase in planned construction area, with a 15.75% rise in starting floor prices, indicating a shift towards higher-quality land [5][19][30] Group 3: Policy and Financial Support - The issuance of special bonds by local governments reached a record high in July, with 616.94 billion yuan issued, aimed at enhancing liquidity for local governments and enterprises [22][23] - Policies have been implemented to support land storage and optimize resource allocation, with 1,105 special bond storage projects announced, amounting to approximately 10,263.35 billion yuan [22][23] - The focus on urban renewal has intensified, with central enterprises encouraged to engage in city development and improvement projects, reflecting a shift towards quality enhancement in urban planning [40][41][43]

AGENDA 01. HIGHLIGHTS 04.ESG 02. FINANCIAL REVIEW 03.BUSINESS REVIEW 05. LAND BANK 06. OUTLOOK 07.APPENDIX 三亚海棠湾悦府 西安万象城 Xi'an Mixc P A R T PART ONE Results Highlights Strengthening Momentum of the Second Growth Curve for Stable Performance and Returns Revenue +19.9% YoY Recurring Income +2.5% YoY RMB 94.9bn RMB 20.6bn Weighted Average Funding Cost 2.79% -32bps from FY24 Attributable Net Profit +16.2% YoY Recurring Core Net Profit RMB 11.9 +9.6% YoY bn RMB 6.0bn Net Gearing Ratio 39.2% Core Net Profit -6.6% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the levels seen in 2008 and 2014, and is still evolving [3]. - Real estate is identified as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [3]. - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [3]. - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier cities and two-thirds of second-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during sales rebounds [3]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities expected to benefit more from these changes [3]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development - The 5-year LPR remains stable at 3.5% as of August, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% [10]. - The real estate index saw a cumulative change of 0.5%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 3.68 percentage points, ranking last among 31 sectors [13]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 1.57 million square meters, a 16.7% increase month-on-month but a 16.1% decrease year-on-year [20]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in the same 30 cities are down 2.1% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a 2.4% increase [25]. Secondary Housing - Secondary home sales in 14 sample cities reached 1.915 million square meters, reflecting a 6.4% month-on-month increase and a 9.5% year-on-year increase [30]. - Cumulative secondary home sales for the year are 6.8677 million square meters, up 16.7% year-on-year [30]. Credit Bonds - In the week of August 18-24, 18 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 15.282 billion yuan, an increase of 6.921 billion yuan from the previous week [39]. - The net financing amount was 3.378 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase [39].

Core Insights - The definition and construction path of "good houses" have become a core topic in the real estate industry, with a shift from scale expansion to quality enhancement as the industry seeks new development logic [1] - Real estate companies unanimously agree that the industry is entering a product-oriented era, focusing on quality and customer experience rather than just availability [2] Group 1: Industry Trends - The real estate sector has transitioned from high-speed growth to a focus on product quality, with customers increasingly concerned about construction quality, living experience, and after-sales service [2] - Companies are adopting strict quality control systems and emphasizing product differentiation to meet evolving consumer demands [2][4] - The concept of "good houses" is expanding beyond basic living functions to include health environments, smart homes, community relationships, and supporting services [3] Group 2: Company Strategies - New East Rising Group emphasizes a "build well before expanding" approach, achieving over 20% higher sales rates compared to competitors in key second and third-tier cities, indicating that superior products can capture market share [2] - Longfor's digital construction system aims to enhance efficiency and product consistency, making high-quality housing more accessible [3] - China Jinmao is focusing on creating a "healthy residential" product line that addresses air quality, lighting, and sound insulation, in response to post-pandemic consumer preferences [4] - China Resources Land is implementing a "regional deep cultivation" strategy, tailoring products to local market demands and cultural contexts, which may incur higher initial costs but promises better returns [5]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,129.15, up by 24.54 points or 0.10% from the previous close [1] - The index reached a high of 25,167.65 and a low of 25,039.93 during the trading session [1] - The average trading price was 25,103.79, with a trading volume of 32.99 million [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 101.987, an increase of 1.08% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 597.451, up by 0.75% from the Hong Kong close [2] ADR Performance - Tencent Holdings (ADR) increased by 0.42% to USD 593.000, with an ADR conversion price of HKD 597.451, reflecting a gain of HKD 4.451 compared to the Hong Kong stock [3] - HSBC Holdings (ADR) rose by 1.41% to USD 100.900, with an ADR conversion price of HKD 101.987, showing an increase of HKD 1.087 compared to the Hong Kong stock [3] - Alibaba (ADR) decreased by 1.53% to USD 115.700, with an ADR conversion price of HKD 115.343, down by HKD 0.357 compared to the Hong Kong stock [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to stabilize both the real estate and stock markets. The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5][49] - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the real estate market to boost social expectations and facilitate domestic demand circulation amid uncertainties in external environments, such as ongoing Sino-US trade frictions [5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.5%, the ChiNext Index grew by 8.6%, and the CSI 300 Index went up by 2.4%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) saw an increase of 3.9% [6][9] - In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers were Wantong Development (+39.4%), Quzhou Development (+33.0%), Electronic City (+32.0%), *ST Nanzhi (+25.0%), and Shahe Shares (+21.2%) [6][9] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of August 9-15, 2025, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 141 million square meters, a decrease of 1.4% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 20.4% [16] - As of August 15, 2025, new housing transactions in 42 key cities for the month totaled 306 million square meters, down 9.5% month-on-month and down 20.9% year-on-year [20] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of August 9-15, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 178 million square meters, an increase of 3.0% week-on-week but a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% [31] - As of August 15, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities for the month totaled 381 million square meters, down 5.5% month-on-month and down 2.1% year-on-year [36] Industry News - From January to July 2025, national real estate development investment reached 535.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The sales area of commercial housing was 51.56 million square meters, down 4% year-on-year [49] - Local policies include Hainan Province encouraging "purchase instead of construction" for resettling relocated residents and Guangzhou releasing new regulations for rural residential construction management [49] Company Announcements - In July 2025, China Jinmao achieved a sales amount of 8.46 billion yuan (up 49% year-on-year), while New Town Holdings reported 1.66 billion yuan (down 52% year-on-year) [52] - China Resources Land reported a sales amount of 13.3 billion yuan (down 14% year-on-year) for July 2025 [52]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector is at a historical low in holdings, combined with interest rate cuts, which enhances the attractiveness of investments in this sector [4] - The report highlights that the fund holdings in real estate stocks have reached a historical low, with a significant drop in market value from 14.1 billion to 3 billion, a decrease of 80% [19] - The report identifies several driving factors, including low fund holdings, global policy cycles, and high base pressure in Q4 2025, which necessitate further policy support [5] Summary by Sections 1. Real Estate Heavyweight Stock Analysis: Historical Low Holdings - The number of funds holding real estate stocks has reached a five-year low, with a decline from 372 funds in Q4 2020 to 194 funds in Q4 2023 [13] - The total market value of funds holding real estate stocks has decreased significantly, reaching a historical low of 3 billion by H1 2025 [19] - The report notes that the proportion of funds overweight in real estate stocks has remained around 55% over the past five years, indicating a stable but low allocation [23] 2. Impact of US Rate Cuts on Chinese Real Estate Stocks - The report discusses the correlation between US interest rate cuts and the valuation recovery of Chinese real estate stocks, suggesting that these cuts can alleviate pressure on the Chinese yuan and provide opportunities for local rate cuts [56] - It emphasizes that the US rate cuts can improve the financing environment for Chinese real estate companies, thereby enhancing their credit profiles and market valuations [58] - The report anticipates a 92.1% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September 2025, which could further influence the Chinese real estate market positively [61]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,135.31, down by 30.63 points or 0.12% on August 20 [1] - The index reached a high of 25,193.11 and a low of 25,028.31 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 43.495 million shares [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 102.118, up by 2.63% compared to the previous close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 591.523, with a slight increase of 0.17% from the previous close [2] Stock Performance Summary - Tencent Holdings (00700) latest price is HKD 590.500, down by 0.34% [3] - Alibaba Group (09988) latest price is HKD 117.500, down by 0.68% [3] - HSBC Holdings (00005) latest price is HKD 99.500, up by 0.45% [3] - Meituan (03690) latest price remains unchanged at HKD 120.800 [3] - Pinduoduo (09992) saw a significant increase, closing at HKD 316.000, up by 12.54% [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in 2024 Core Insights - The average revenue of the top 30 listed real estate companies in China is projected to decline by approximately 13.83% in 2024, totaling around RMB 2.77 trillion [9] - The average gross margin for these companies is expected to decrease to about 14.42%, down by 1.86% from the previous year [13] - The average net profit margin is projected to be around -10.81%, reflecting a significant decline of 12.45% compared to the previous year [16] - The average return on equity is expected to drop to approximately -20.75%, a decrease of 16.44% from 2023 [59] Summary by Sections 1. Revenue Overview - The total revenue for the top 30 listed real estate companies in 2024 is estimated at RMB 2.77 trillion, a decline of 13.83% year-on-year [9] - Financial Street leads the revenue growth with an increase of 51.74%, reaching RMB 190.75 billion [8] - 20 companies experienced revenue declines, with Midea Real Estate facing the largest drop at 94.94% [9] 2. Gross Margin Overview - The average gross margin for the top 30 companies is projected to be 14.42%, down 1.86% from the previous year [13] - Midea Real Estate shows the highest increase in gross margin at approximately 24.21% [14] - 23 companies reported a decline in gross margin, with Jinhui experiencing the largest drop of 30.80% [13] 3. Net Profit Overview - The average net profit for the top 30 companies is expected to be a loss of RMB 11.65 billion, a decline of 62.09 billion from a profit of RMB 50.44 billion in 2023 [23] - China Resources leads in net profit with RMB 336.78 billion, although this represents a 9.72% decrease from the previous year [24] - Over 70% of companies reported a decline in net profit, with Vanke transitioning from a profit of RMB 204.56 billion to a loss of approximately RMB 487.04 billion [23] 4. Inventory Overview - The total inventory for the top 30 companies is projected to be approximately RMB 60.85 billion, a decrease of 13.58% year-on-year [33] - Only one company, Ruian, reported an increase in inventory, with a growth of 16.03% [33] - Midea Real Estate experienced the largest inventory decline at 99.11% [33] 5. Liquidity Ratios - The average current ratio for the top 30 companies is expected to be 152.86%, a slight increase of 0.15% from the previous year [42] - 16 companies reported a decline in their current ratios, with Xinda showing the largest drop of 39.17% [42] 6. Cash Short-term Debt Ratio - The average cash short-term debt ratio is projected to be 1.52, a decrease of 0.11 from the previous year [54] - Ocean Group has the lowest cash short-term debt ratio at 0.01, while Binhai has the highest at 5.53 [54] 7. Return on Equity Overview - The average return on equity is expected to be -20.75%, a decline of 16.44% from 2023 [59] - Only two companies, Jinmao and New Town, are expected to report positive returns on equity [59]

Market Performance - The real estate index increased by 3.9% during the 33rd week, ranking 6th among 31 primary industry sectors [1] Policy Developments - Tianjin announced that depositors can withdraw their housing provident fund to pay for the down payment of existing homes [2] - Guangzhou issued guidelines for rural housing construction management, clarifying the "one household, one residence" standard [2] - Fuzhou introduced 16 supportive policies for real estate project development, focusing on streamlining planning approvals and optimizing project management [2] - Changsha County released ten measures to promote a stable and healthy real estate market, aimed at boosting housing consumption and investment confidence [2] - Hainan adjusted its regulatory policies to encourage the use of "purchase instead of construction" for resident relocation in areas with high housing inventory [2] Company Updates - China Jinmao reported a single-month sales amount of 8.46 billion RMB for July 2025, with cumulative sales of 61.807 billion RMB from January to July [3] - China Resources Land acquired three land parcels in July 2025, with a total floor area of approximately 272,100 square meters and a total consideration of 1.55 billion RMB [3] - China Merchants Shekou and China Resources jointly won a land bid in Shenzhen for 8.64 billion RMB, with a premium rate of 34.81% [3] Sales Data - New home transactions decreased by 2% week-on-week, while second-hand home transactions increased by 2% [4] - In the 33rd week, 20 cities recorded a total transaction area of 1.4 million square meters for new homes, with a year-to-date cumulative transaction area of 63.8 million square meters, down 8% year-on-year [4] - Second-hand home transactions in 11 cities reached 1.73 million square meters in the 33rd week, with a year-to-date cumulative area of 64.13 million square meters, up 13% year-on-year [4] Investment Strategy - The demand for new homes and land in core cities is driven by quality supply, but this may pressure old inventory and second-hand home sales [4] - Effective policies are crucial, with expectations for further progress in urban village renovations and land reserves [4] - Second-hand home prices may serve as an indicator for the real estate market bottoming out, with new homes having premium potential based on quality [4] - Recommended focus on companies with strong product moats, stable rental income from quality commercial real estate, and stock brokerage services in the second-hand home market, including Greentown China, China Resources Land, Swire Properties, China Resources Mixc Life, and Beike-W [4]