Core Insights - In January 2026, the top 100 real estate companies in China reported a total sales revenue of 190.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9% [1] - The equity sales amount for the same group was 132.14 billion yuan [1] - The top ten companies by sales included Poly Developments, China Overseas Land, and China Resources Land, with only Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales for the month [1] Sales Performance - The average sales revenue for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year [2] - Companies ranked 11-30 had an average sales revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, a decline of 25.6% [2] - Companies ranked 31-50 reported an average sales revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, down 21.0% [2] Market Dynamics - The decline in sales is attributed to the high base from January of the previous year when the market was more active due to policy changes [5] - The real estate industry is undergoing an adjustment, with a shift from "scale competition" to "quality competition," leading to resource concentration among stronger companies [5] - In January 2026, 32 companies among the top 100 reported year-on-year sales growth, with 10 companies experiencing growth exceeding 100% [5] Market Trends - The new housing market showed weak performance in January, while the second-hand housing market demonstrated notable growth, with transaction volumes increasing by 33% year-on-year [6] - The central government has been signaling stability in market expectations, emphasizing the importance of managing expectations to stabilize the real estate market [6] - Recent policy measures include lowering the down payment ratio for commercial property loans and adjusting monetary policy tools [6] Future Outlook - As the Chinese New Year approaches, real estate companies are expected to increase marketing efforts, which may sustain some activity in core city markets [7] - There are ongoing challenges for companies to convert financial restructuring into sustainable operational capabilities [7]

百强房企1月卖房"成绩单"出炉。 2026年开年，百强房企1月卖房"成绩单"出炉。 1月31日，中指研究院发布数据显示，2026年1月，TOP100房企销售总额为1905.2亿元，同比下降18.9%；同期，TOP100房企权益销售额为1321.4亿元。 房企销售金额前十依次为：保利发展、中海地产、华润置地、绿城中国、中旅投资、招商蛇口、中国金茂、建发房产、万科、滨江集团，其中仅保利、中 海、华润单月销售过百亿。 对比上年同期，房企销售位次已经发生了较大变化。头部房企中，保利、中海、华润、绿城的顺序未变，但万科从上年1月的第5位，下滑至今年1月的第9 位。中旅投资短期内成为"黑马"，闯到今年1月房企全口径销售榜第5位。 TOP10随后的房企中，招商蛇口、建发房产、滨江集团变化不大、依然位列其中，但是华发股份从去年1月的第6位降至今年1月的第18位，同期中国铁建 从第10位降至第13位，中国金茂则从去年1月的第13位升至今年1月的第7位。 克而瑞数据显示，1月全国重点50城市新建商品住宅成交面积约810万平方米，表现较为清淡，新房市场整体进入淡季；同期，重点13城市二手房成交面积 约810万平方米，环比上升16% ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of outlet malls in China, highlighting their evolution from discount-focused shopping destinations to comprehensive lifestyle centers that cater to a wider range of consumer needs and experiences [6][7][18]. Group 1: Market Trends - The sales revenue of China's outlet industry is projected to grow from approximately 126 billion to 248 billion yuan between 2021 and 2025, nearly doubling in five years, showcasing strong resilience during market fluctuations [6]. - The traditional perception of outlet malls is changing, with younger consumers increasingly frequenting these locations for leisure and social activities, rather than just for discounted shopping [31][35]. Group 2: Business Model Evolution - Outlet malls are shifting towards a "one-stop" and "full-format" model, integrating non-retail sectors such as dining and entertainment, which now account for over 40% of offerings in some locations [11][12]. - Brands that previously avoided outlet malls are now entering the space, with examples including lululemon and ON, indicating a shift in inventory strategies where new and full-price items are becoming more prevalent [14][16][17]. Group 3: Consumer Demographics - The influx of younger consumers, particularly families, is revitalizing outlet malls, with family demographics making up 74.51% of visitors in some locations, prompting tailored experiences such as children's activities [34]. - Outlet malls are increasingly adopting immersive experiences and themed events to attract younger audiences, transforming them into social hubs rather than mere shopping venues [35][31]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The rise of new outlet formats is putting pressure on traditional shopping centers, which must adapt to maintain their relevance by offering unique experiences or locations that cannot be easily replicated by outlet malls [39]. - The competition is intensifying as new players, including internet giants, enter the outlet space, leveraging their resources to create a scale that challenges established outlet chains [26][28].

智通财经APP获悉，1月30日，中指研究院发布2026年1月全国房地产企业拿地TOP100排行榜。2026年1月，TOP100企业拿地总额579.9亿元，同比下降 52.1%。房企开年拿地同比降幅较高，一方面是上年同期基数较高，2025年1月TOP100企业拿地总额同比增长四成多；另一方面，开年房地产市场仍存在 不确定性，企业上年积极补仓的背景下拿地热度有所减弱，这也延续了上年四季度拿地热度走低态势。从拿地企业来看，央国企仍然是主力，拿地金额前 十企业中多为地方国企，越秀地产、国贸地产、华润置地等大中型央国企拿地金额位居前列。 图：2023年-2026年1月TOP100房企累计拿地总额及同比 数据来源：中指数据CREIS 数据范围：包含招拍挂权益土地及收并购土地 从新增货值来看，华润置地、石家庄城发投集团位列前二。2026年1月，华润置地以106亿元新增货值位列第一，石家庄城发投集团新增货值规模为62亿 元，位列第二。TOP10企业2026年1月新增货值总额530亿元，占TOP100企业的25.7%，新增货值门槛为10亿元。 数据来源：中指研究院综合整理 重点城市群房企拿地 从各城市群拿地金额来看，长三角位居 ...

Group 1 - The first land promotion conference in Nanjing for 2026 was held on January 29, focusing on key areas such as Digital City and New Binjiang, and released an urban renewal opportunity list for Yuhuatai District [1][3] - The event attracted 15 major real estate companies, including China Resources Land and Poly Developments, as well as 10 urban renewal operators, showing strong interest in the promoted land resources and urban renewal list [3] - The promoted land resources include various types of plots, such as "small but beautiful" plots in the Yuhua core area, low-density residential land along the Qinhuai River, and high-rise residential land near schools, catering to diverse housing needs [3] Group 2 - Yuhuatai District has gathered 381 AI companies and 50,000 AI talents, aiming to create an AI and software integration zone with a target of attracting 1,000 AI companies and 100,000 AI talents, striving for a core output value of 100 billion [5] - During the discussion, participating companies engaged in in-depth exchanges regarding land indicators, area construction, cooperation models, and approval services, indicating a favorable residential supply-demand relationship in areas like Yuhua core, marking a good investment window for land [5] - Officials responded to companies' concerns, committing to enhance service guarantees and improve the "Yuhua speed" of project approvals [5]

Group 1 - In 2025, Shenyang implemented precise policies to better meet residents' rigid and improved housing demands, effectively boosting buyer confidence and promoting property transactions [1] - The land market in Shenyang saw a resurgence of premium land grabbing, with many high-quality projects entering the market, making successful "first openings" a norm [1] - The top three real estate companies in Shenyang by sales volume in 2025 were Aoyuan, Yirun, and Daobuduan, with sales figures of 2,490 million m², 1,351 million m², and 1,300 million m² respectively [2] Group 2 - The top three companies in terms of registered residential area in Shenyang were China Overseas, China Resources Land, and Longfor, with China Overseas holding the title of "triple crown" in area, amount, and number of units [4] - The leading residential projects by registered area included China Resources Land's Zhonghuanyuefu, China Overseas's Tianduan, and Songming Xinghewan, indicating a shift from demand for basic housing to improved housing products [7] - In the Heping District, the top three projects by registered area were China Overseas's Lingguan No. 1, Yujing New World, and Runqi Hepingli, showcasing strong performance in the area [13] Group 3 - In the Hunnan District, the top three projects by registered area were China Overseas's Tianduan, Shenyang Xinghewan, and China Overseas's Shengjing Juzhang, with multiple new projects entering the market [19] - The top three projects in the Tiexi District were Runxi Fu, Runyue Bay, and Tianyi Jingcheng's Milan Phase II, indicating a vibrant market with new projects on the horizon [29] - The top three projects in the Yuhong District were Hongfa Huanhua Creek, Xuefu Meidi City, and Poly Heguang Yuhai, with several new projects expected to enter the market soon [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate bond market has gone through stages of risk accumulation, concentrated outbreak, and current orderly resolution and yield gaming. The recent Vanke bond extension event has led to significant fluctuations in the real - estate sector's valuation, prompting a re - examination of the industry's credit boundaries and pricing logic. The report backtracks the adjustment and repair patterns of the real - estate bond sector, explores potential stabilization signals in the current market adjustment, and outlines investment strategies [2][12]. - Currently, the bottom of credit expectations has been initially established, and the easing of pessimistic sentiment in the bond market provides conditions for the valuation repair of real - estate bonds. However, the probability of a wide - range special support policy for central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds in the short term is low, and the spreads of different issuers may diverge, with high - quality issuers having stronger valuation repair momentum [5][43]. - The investment strategy focuses on 1 - 2 - year central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds to capitalize on valuation repair opportunities [6][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Past: Review of the Adjustment Characteristics of the Real - Estate Bond Sector after Public Opinion Shocks - **Stage One (2020)**: Industry risks gradually accumulated, with a few real - estate enterprises defaulting. The excess spread of real - estate bonds did not widen significantly, and the industry's credit risk continued to build up. The spill - over effect of the Yongmei default on real - estate bonds was not immediately apparent [3][13]. - **Stage Two (2021 - 2023)**: The number of defaulting real - estate enterprises increased significantly, and at the same time, policies to stabilize the real - estate market were intensively introduced. The excess spread of AA - rated real - estate bonds fluctuated widely at high levels, with the widening and narrowing cycles often around 5 months [3][14]. - **Stage Three (Since 2024)**: The industry's credit risk is being cleared in an orderly manner, with occasional local risks. Real - estate bonds with high coupon rates are attractive, becoming a target for institutions to seek excess returns in an "asset shortage" environment. The excess spread of real - estate bonds significantly narrowed during the alpha market of spread compression from April to August in 2024 and 2025, but then the credit spread widened [3][16]. 3.2 Current: Significant Adjustment of the Real - Estate Sector's Valuation since Vanke Announced the Proposed Extension 3.2.1 Weak Trading Sentiment and Significant Valuation Increases of Multiple Issuers in the Sector - Since Vanke announced the proposed extension of its bond, the trading prices of many real - estate enterprise bonds have significantly deviated from their valuations, and the valuation yields of issuers have generally increased. Some issuers, including central enterprises, local state - owned enterprises, mixed - ownership enterprises, and private enterprises, have been particularly affected. There is a risk of further increases in valuation yields [4][17][18]. 3.2.2 Signals of Stabilization in the Adjustment: Trading Sentiment, Issuance Situation, and Negative Public Opinion - **Trading sentiment**: It is becoming more moderate, with the trading deviation of real - estate bonds narrowing, and the proportion of TKN transactions stabilizing or rising, showing an initial trend [20][21]. - **Issuance situation**: The primary - market issuance of real - estate bonds has recovered, with the subscription multiple increasing, especially in the recent week [24]. - **Negative public opinion**: The market has become more "insensitive" to negative information. The Vanke event has fully fermented, and the risk of further transmission has narrowed [31]. 3.3 Outlook: Offensive Allocation Strategy after the Adjustment Stabilizes 3.3.1 Conditions for the Offensive Window: Comprehensive Judgment Based on Policies, Credit Risk Expectations, and Bond - Market Sentiment - **Policy aspect**: In the short term, the probability of a wide - range special support policy for central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds is low, but targeted relief policies for high - risk issuers can be expected. If favorable policies are introduced, the repair process of real - estate bonds may accelerate [5][35][43]. - **Credit risk expectation aspect**: The market's pessimistic sentiment towards the real - estate industry's credit risk has reached the bottom. The debt disposal process of Vanke is an important factor affecting market sentiment. With the confirmation of Vanke's disposal plan, the short - term credit expectation bottom of real - estate bonds may be established [37]. - **Bond - market sentiment aspect**: When the bond - market sentiment is good and institutions have a high demand for returns, the spread repair momentum of real - estate bonds is stronger; otherwise, there is greater pressure for spread widening [39]. 3.3.2 Investment Strategy: Focus on 1 - 2 - Year Central and Local State - Owned Enterprise Real - Estate Bonds to Capitalize on Valuation Repair - The core of the current strategy is to moderately extend from the previously conservative bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year to 1 - 2 - year medium - to high - grade central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds, which can provide more attractive coupon yields with relatively controllable risks [44]. - **Central enterprises**: They have strong shareholder backgrounds, sound finances, and are mainly located in core cities. Representative issuers include Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. and China Resources Land Limited. The 1 - 2 - year yield ranges from 2.10% to 2.70%, and the average excess spread ranges from 35 to 85 BP [6][45]. - **Local state - owned enterprises**: They are located in regions with good economic development, have strong shareholder backgrounds, and perform well in terms of profitability and solvency. Representative issuers include Shanghai Lujiazui (Group) Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Urban Construction and Development Co., Ltd. The 1 - 2 - year yield ranges from 1.95% to 2.0%, and the average excess spread ranges from 15 to 20 BP [6][45].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 27 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 二手房成交回暖，《求是》发文提及城市更新 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/1/17-26/1/23） 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产量价超预期下行、房地产融资资金趋紧、房地产政策不及预期。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数上升 0.8%、深证成指上升 1.1%、创业板指下跌 0.3%、沪深 300 下 跌 0.6%、房地产（申万）上升 5.2%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：*ST 荣控(+15.8%)、 顺发恒能(+15.7%)、城投控股(+14.9%)、大悦城(+14.4%)、珠免集团(+12.6%)，涨跌幅后五 的分别为：城建发展(-6.0%)、中洲控股(-2.8%)、电子城(-2.1%)、特发服务(-1.9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with significant declines in investment, sales area, and sales revenue in 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [1][3][9]. Investment and Sales Data - In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2% [1]. - The sales area of new commercial housing was 88,101 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the sales revenue was 83,937 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% decline [1][9]. - The construction area for real estate developers was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, with residential construction down 10.3% [3]. Construction Activity - New construction area was 58,770 million square meters, down 20.4%, with residential new construction area at 42,984 million square meters, a decline of 19.8% [4]. - The completion area was 60,348 million square meters, down 18.1%, with residential completions at 42,830 million square meters, a decrease of 20.2% [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is still in a "de-inventory" phase due to declining new home sales and significantly reduced land transactions over the past two years [5]. - Some central and state-owned enterprises are maintaining orderly construction activities, and there is still demand for well-located properties, which is boosting market confidence [6]. Financial Policies and Support - Local governments are enhancing "guarantee delivery" efforts, with recent financial policies aimed at stabilizing financing for projects on the "white list," which will support the delivery of homes [7]. Leading Companies - In 2025, ten real estate companies achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, with four surpassing 200 billion yuan. These include major players like Poly Development, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Vanke [9]. - The top ten companies by investment are primarily state-owned enterprises, with significant investments from China Overseas, China Resources, Poly Development, and China Merchants Shekou, indicating a strategic positioning during market adjustments [9]. Market Trends - December 2025 showed signs of improvement, with new commercial housing sales area increasing by 39.87% month-on-month and sales revenue rising by 44.07% [10]. - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities saw a slight decrease, with Shanghai experiencing a minor increase, while other cities like Beijing and Guangzhou reported declines [10][11]. - The second-hand housing market is also seeing a shift, with increased transactions in second-hand homes as buyers seek more affordable options [12].