Summary of Haifeng International Conference Call Company Overview - Haifeng International has established a cost advantage through counter-cyclical capacity expansion and is benefiting from the upward market cycle. The company maintains a self-owned ship ratio of 85%-90% to enhance its anti-cyclical capability [2][12][3]. Industry Dynamics - The U.S.-China trade friction is accelerating the transfer of industries to Southeast Asia, breaking the original logistics cluster effect and increasing international trade transportation demand. The Twin Star Alliance has adjusted its routing model from a pendulum to a hub-and-spoke system, which increases the demand for small vessel transportation, benefiting Haifeng International [2][4]. - The small container ship market has a better supply structure compared to other shipping markets, with 70% of the capacity in Asia being small vessels under 3,000 TEU, and only 3.6% of orders being for new builds. The aging issue is prominent, limiting future supply growth [2][6]. Financial Projections - Haifeng International's projected net profit for 2025-2027 is $1.048 billion, $860 million, and $790 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.3%, -18%, and -8% respectively. If performance expectations recover, valuations could rise from 5-7 times to 10-15 times, with a potential market cap increase of 40%-110% [2][7]. Market Misconceptions - The market underestimates the positive impact of China's industrial transfer on feeder shipping volumes and the potential benefits of uncertainties in the Red Sea route for the container shipping market. Factors such as tariff changes, better-than-expected performance from peers, off-peak season resilience, port congestion, and ongoing Red Sea crises could catalyze stock price increases [2][10][8]. Competitive Advantages - Haifeng International focuses on the Asian market, with 82% of its capacity deployed in this region, making it the largest regional shipping company globally. The company has created a cost advantage superior to its peers through deep market engagement and counter-cyclical shipbuilding [3][4][17]. Demand Highlights - The demand side has two main highlights: the frequent U.S.-China tariff frictions leading to the transfer of Chinese manufacturing to Southeast Asia, and the shift in shipping routes by the Twin Star Alliance, which enhances the demand for small vessel transportation [4][5]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply side for small container ships is favorable, with a strong flexibility advantage. The aging problem is severe, with 24% of small feeder ships being over 20 years old, and 11% over 25 years old. The supply growth for small feeder ships is projected to be limited in the coming years [6][26][28]. Revenue and Cost Structure - The company primarily engages in container shipping, with over 90% of its revenue derived from this segment. Key cost components include transportation costs (22% for voyage costs and 13% for vessel operating costs) [29][30]. Future Growth and Valuation - Effective capacity growth is expected to be 6%, 0.6%, and 4.1% from 2025 to 2027. The company anticipates container trade growth in Asia of 3.2% and 3% for the same period, which will positively impact freight volumes [31][32]. - Historical PE valuation has fluctuated between 10-20 times, with a potential recovery to 10-15 times based on recent performance, suggesting a market cap increase of 20%-60% [35]. Conclusion - Haifeng International is well-positioned to capitalize on the shifting dynamics in the shipping industry, particularly in the Southeast Asian market, with strong financial projections and a favorable supply-demand balance in the small container ship segment. The company’s strategic focus on self-owned vessels and regional specialization enhances its competitive edge in a challenging market environment [2][4][17].

Group 1 - The recent US-China Geneva trade negotiations have led to significant progress, with both countries reducing tariff rates, resulting in a rapid response from the global shipping and logistics market [1] - There is a surge in demand for shipping services on US routes, with reports of a "rush for shipments" and "cabin space" as shipping rates have dramatically increased, with East Coast rates nearing $7000 in June [1][2] - Shipping companies have announced substantial rate hikes, with various carriers increasing fees for container shipments to the US, indicating a potential super peak season for shipping [1][2] Group 2 - Following the announcement of a 145% tariff increase by the US on China, there has been a significant withdrawal of shipping capacity from US routes, with a 40% reduction noted, complicating the return of capacity to these routes [2] - The strong demand for inventory replenishment in the US, coupled with a 90-day tariff exemption period, is expected to drive a surge in Chinese exports, with analysts predicting a "red sea moment" for shipping rates [2] - Companies in the shipping and logistics sector, such as COSCO, HMM, and Evergreen, are likely to benefit from the current market dynamics, as shipping rates are expected to remain elevated into the second half of the year [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the shipping industry, particularly focusing on the opportunities in the Asian container shipping market [2]. Core Insights - The Asian shipping market is experiencing a balanced supply and demand, with a projected CAGR of 6.85% for container transport volume from 2001 to 2024, driven by regional economic growth and trade agreements like RCEP [2][14]. - The report highlights the differentiated strategies of major players such as SeaLand, Yang Ming, and Jin Jiang, emphasizing their operational strengths and market positioning [2][3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand in the Asian Market - Demand: The Asian route is the second-largest segment in global container shipping, with a projected volume of 65.29 million TEU in 2024, accounting for 30.7% of global container trade [14][16]. - Supply: The growth rate of container ships under 3000 TEU is expected to be lower than the global average, with a forecasted capacity growth of 0.59% in 2025 and a decline of 2.97% in 2026 [19][20]. Comparison of Major Shipping Companies - Capacity: SeaLand leads with a total capacity of 180,000 TEU, followed by Yang Ming with 113,000 TEU and Jin Jiang with 53,000 TEU [3][53]. - Growth Rates: From 2020 to 2024, Jin Jiang's total capacity grew by 102%, Yang Ming by 59%, and SeaLand by 39% [54][59]. - Revenue Structure: SeaLand's revenue distribution in 2024 is 48% from Greater China, 29% from Southeast Asia, and 17% from Japan [4][68]. Financial Performance and Efficiency - Profitability: SeaLand's net profit margin fluctuated between 21% and 47% from 2020 to 2024, while Yang Ming's ranged from 2% to 54% [5][6]. - Asset Turnover: SeaLand's total asset turnover ranged from 0.85 to 1.42, indicating efficient asset utilization compared to its peers [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the Asian shipping market is a high-quality segment within the industry, with companies like SeaLand and Yang Ming expected to benefit from ongoing trade dynamics and regional demand growth [6][52].

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks surged today, with all three major indices rising over 2%. The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.3% or 532.38 points, closing at 23640.65 points, with a total turnover of 2228.41 million HKD [1] - The positive sentiment in the market is attributed to the unexpected progress in the first round of trade negotiations between China and the US, which is expected to continue in a constructive direction [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - JD Health (06618) saw a notable increase of 5.13%, closing at 39.95 HKD, contributing 3.56 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 16.645 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 25.5%, and operating profit of 1.071 billion RMB, up 119.8% [2] - Other blue-chip stocks included China Life (02628) rising by 6.55% to 16.26 HKD, AIA (01299) up 5.15% to 65.3 HKD, while Link REIT (00823) fell by 1.34% to 40.45 HKD [2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks collectively rose, with Baidu increasing over 4% and Alibaba and JD both rising over 3% [3] - Financial stocks experienced a significant rally, with China Pacific Insurance (02601) up 6.77% to 24.45 HKD, China Life (02628) up 6.55%, and GF Securities (01776) up 6.31% to 11.46 HKD [3] Shipping Sector - The shipping sector performed well, with Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) rising by 7.78% to 1.94 HKD and Seafront International (01308) up 6.51% to 22.9 HKD. The improvement is linked to the easing of tariff conflicts and a seasonal increase in container shipping demand [4][5] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector saw widespread gains, with Li Auto (02015) rising by 4.54% to 112.8 HKD and Xpeng Motors (09868) up 3.87% to 81.8 HKD. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 905,000 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [6][5] Coal Sector - The coal sector showed positive movement, with China Coal Energy (01898) up 4.91% to 8.55 HKD. Despite recent price declines, analysts suggest that demand may improve as summer approaches [7] Notable Stock Movements - Tencent Music (01698) surged by 12.84% to 61.5 HKD, reporting Q1 2025 revenue of 7.36 billion RMB, with online music service revenue growing by 15.9% [8] - Smoore International (06969) reached a new high, increasing by 10.18% to 17.32 HKD, amid rising sales of new tobacco products [9] - MicroPort Scientific (02252) saw a decline of 8.12% to 16.52 HKD due to a share placement announcement [10] - Samsonite (01910) dropped by 8.58% to 14.06 HKD after reporting a 7.3% decrease in net sales for Q1 2025 [11]

Group 1 - As of May 14, 78 stocks reached a 52-week high, with Chang'an Renheng (08139), Hengchang Group International (01421), and Lehua Entertainment (02306) leading the high rate at 65.38%, 42.59%, and 38.52% respectively [1] - The closing price of Chang'an Renheng was 1.370, with a peak price of 2.580, indicating a significant increase [1] - Hengchang Group International closed at 0.690, reaching a high of 0.770, reflecting a 42.59% increase [1] Group 2 - Lehua Entertainment's closing price was 1.510, with a maximum price of 1.690, showing a 38.52% rise [1] - XL Ernan CO (07711) and XL Ernan CO-U had increases of 27.75% and 26.89% respectively, with closing prices of 125.000 and 15.960 [1] - Other notable stocks include Madison Holdings (08057) with a 25.00% increase and Du Fu Wine Group (00986) with a 17.48% increase [1] Group 3 - The report also highlights stocks that reached 52-week lows, with XI Ernan CO (07311) dropping by 36.46% to a closing price of 26.500 [3] - XI Ernan CO-U saw a decrease of 35.53%, closing at 3.386 [3] - Other stocks with significant declines include Touyun Biotechnology (01332) at -22.46% and Aoweiholdings (01370) at -16.67% [3]

Group 1 - The shipping stocks are experiencing significant gains, with Pacific Shipping up 8.33% to HKD 1.95, and other companies like Seaspan International and Orient Overseas also showing notable increases [1] - Recent high-level trade talks between China and the US have led to substantial progress, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with the same percentage of counter-tariffs [1] - The upcoming peak season for container shipments on trans-Pacific routes is expected to drive demand, as US supply chain inventory needs are anticipated to increase, leading to a surge in bookings from US buyers for imports from China [1] Group 2 - The surge in cargo volume on the US routes is attributed to a combination of factors, including seasonal increases, urgent shipments due to future concerns, and overall US restocking demands, resulting in a tight supply-demand situation [2] - The pressure on European routes is easing, with marginal recovery in economic demand and expectations of a peak season returning [2]

资料显示，美国是全球最大的海运和集装箱进口国，拥有全球最繁忙的集装箱港口群，主导跨太平洋航线，占全 球海运集装箱贸易量的约20%，主要进口来源中国、东南亚、欧盟、墨西哥。南都记者此前采访了解到，在高关 税政策背景下，主要航运/综合物流企业通过布局全球多个区域市场（如东南亚、非洲、中东、欧洲等）来对冲不 确定风险。 受中美经贸谈判利好影响，5月13日早间，A股三大股指集体高开，其中航运港口板块普遍拉升：全球航运巨头马 士基涨幅超10%，宁波海运（600798）一字涨停，南京港（002040）、连云港（601008）午后双双涨停；国航远 洋（833171）涨幅一度超过20%，宁波远洋（601022）涨幅近10%，德翔海运（02510）、东方海外国际 （00316）、海丰国际（01308）、中远海控（601919）等均有不同程度上涨。 | 今开 1428.60 | | 最高 | 1459.15 | | | 成交量 1089.89万手 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨收 1414.93 | | 最低 | 1421.05 | | 成交额 | 57.39亿 ...

Group 1 - Company achieved revenue of $639 million in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.3% [2] - Container shipping volume reached 795,387 TEU in Q1 2025, up 6.8% year-on-year but down 22.0% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Average freight rate (excluding slot exchange revenue) was $803.5, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9% [2] Group 2 - The small vessel market is expected to face tighter supply, with a projected growth rate of 1.2% in 2025 and a decline of 2.0% in 2026 for vessels under 3,000 TEU [3] - Concerns exist regarding potential tariff impacts on cargo volume and freight rates, which may lead to some capacity shifting to the Asian market [3] - The demand for small vessels is expected to increase due to U.S. tariff exemptions for vessels under 4,000 TEU and increased transshipment trade through Mexico [3] Group 3 - The trend of industrial transfer is likely to accelerate under U.S. tariff policies, with cargo volume in the Asian region expected to grow by 3.2% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026 [4] - Trade between China and ASEAN countries, as well as between Japan and Southeast Asian nations, is projected to continue growing, with import and export growth rates of 7.1% and 9.5% respectively in the first quarter of 2025 [4] - The ongoing industrial transfer from China to Southeast Asian countries is anticipated to further boost economic growth in those regions, supporting stable cargo volume growth in Asia [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continuous recovery in domestic demand, with a focus on increased dividends [1] - The shipping sector shows strong performance in container shipping, while oil and dry bulk shipping face pressure [3][4] - The highway sector experienced a rebound in traffic in Q1 2025, while port container business remains robust [4] - The railway passenger transport is stable, but freight transport is under pressure [4] - The airline industry sees steady growth in passenger traffic, although ticket prices are under slight pressure [6] - The express delivery sector exceeded expectations in 2024, maintaining double-digit growth into Q1 2025, despite intense price competition [7] - Cross-border logistics face challenges due to coal market pressures and tariff policies affecting air freight demand [8] Summary by Sections Shipping - Container shipping shows impressive performance, with significant profit growth and stable dividends [15] - Oil shipping and dry bulk shipping face challenges, with fluctuating rates and cautious dividend policies [18][21] - The report notes a strong increase in container shipping rates due to geopolitical tensions and trade dynamics [14][15] Highways - In 2024, highway traffic saw a slight decline, but Q1 2025 traffic improved, leading to increased profits for highway companies [35][38] - The report indicates that highway companies are maintaining high dividend payouts despite previous revenue declines [41][43] Ports - Port container throughput growth outpaced other sectors, benefiting from a favorable international trade environment [44][46] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of container port companies, with significant profit increases [47][48] Railways - Railway passenger volumes remained stable, while freight volumes faced challenges, impacting overall profitability [49] Airlines - The airline sector is experiencing steady passenger growth, but ticket prices are slightly under pressure, affecting profitability [6] Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a significant increase in volume in 2024, continuing strong growth into Q1 2025, although competition remains fierce [7] Cross-Border Logistics - Cross-border logistics companies are facing challenges due to market pressures and tariff impacts on air freight demand [8]

Core Insights - The 2024 Annual Profitability Ranking of Chinese Port and Shipping Listed Companies was released, highlighting the industry's performance amid a complex global economic environment [1] - China's total import and export value reached 43.85 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] - The ranking reflects the profitability of companies listed on major stock exchanges in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, focusing on port operations, shipping, and shipbuilding [5] Economic Context - The global economic recovery remains uneven, with significant inflation decreases in major economies and increased geopolitical tensions [1] - Domestic economic performance is stable, with a focus on high-quality development and the growth of new productive forces [1] - The number of foreign trade enterprises in China reached nearly 700,000, a new high [1] Trade Performance - In 2024, China's export of electromechanical products was 15.12 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year, accounting for 59.4% of total exports [2] - Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 22.07 trillion yuan, a 6.4% increase, marking over 50% of China's total trade for the first time [2] Port and Shipping Industry Performance - National ports handled a cargo throughput of 1.7595 billion tons in 2024, a 3.7% increase, maintaining the world's highest volume [3] - China's shipbuilding industry continues to lead globally, with completion, new orders, and backlog volumes at 48.18 million deadweight tons, 113.05 million deadweight tons, and 208.72 million deadweight tons, respectively [3] Company Rankings - The ranking is based on Return on Equity (ROE) and net profit, with the top companies achieving significant profitability [7][9] - The top three companies by ROE are: 1. Sea Harvest International Holdings Limited - 47.62% 2. Shanghai Huige Environmental Technology Group Co., Ltd. - 45.23% 3. Intercontinental Shipping Group Holdings Limited - 35.35% [7] Financial Overview - A total of 83 companies were ranked, with 77 profitable, representing 92.77% of the total, and an overall net profit of 229.04 billion yuan [10] - The shipping sector had 49 companies, with a total net profit of 165.96 billion yuan, while the port sector had 22 companies with a net profit of 50.20 billion yuan [12][13] - The shipbuilding sector included 12 companies, achieving a net profit of 12.88 billion yuan [14]