文 ｜ 童成墩 薛姣 田良 陆昊 林永健 一季报总体超预期，有三个验证：新业务价值高增长验证了头部公司正受益市场洗牌，部分头部公 司分红险转型成效验证了公司从类自营走向类资管商业模式的可行性，核心偿付能力充足率的大幅 改善验证了头部公司过去五年拉长资产久期积累了大量浮盈。我们重申保险板块强于大市的判断 上市保险公司均有配置价值。 ▍ 我们认为保险板块处于长期慢牛的起点。 根据我们外发的《 非银行金融行业保险动态跟踪—保险股：开启慢牛之路 》（2 0 2 5 - 0 3 - 1 5）， 我们认为保险板块处于长期慢牛的起点。主要逻辑包括：1）市场大幅洗牌，银保和经纪渠道份 额在向头部公司集中；2）市场处于单边降息周期走向低利率波动的拐点上，保险产品需求正逐 步从传统险转向分红险；3）监管持续推进费用"报行合一"、压降保单预定利率，幸存者公司有 望通过积累低手续费、低负债成本实现新一轮发展。 ▍ 从2 0 2 5年一季报情况来看，行业表现基本上与以上判断一致。 新业务价值普遍快速增速，超出市场预期。 2 0 2 5年以来，行业淡化开门红色彩，部分公司一季 度代理人渠道新单保费下降，市场对新业务价值预期偏悲观，但一季 ...

Group 1 - The five major listed insurance companies reported a total net profit attributable to shareholders of 841.76 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [1] - China Pacific Insurance achieved the highest net profit growth among the five companies, with a net profit of 128.49 billion yuan, up 43.4% year-on-year [1] - China Life Insurance reported a net profit of 288.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.5%, while New China Life Insurance's net profit reached 58.82 billion yuan, growing by 19% [1] Group 2 - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice on April 25, 2025, to strengthen regulation of universal life insurance, effective from May 1, 2025, allowing a one-year transition period for non-compliant existing policies [1] - The new accounting standards indicate a divergence between profit growth and net asset growth, with profits being more sensitive to stock market fluctuations while net assets are influenced by the bond market [1] - The new business value (NBV) for insurance companies showed strong growth in 2024, with the highest comparable growth rate approaching 130%, primarily driven by an increase in NBV profit margins [1] Group 3 - Insurance companies have lowered their investment return rates and risk discount rate assumptions in their 2024 reports, negatively impacting NBV and intrinsic value [2] - The importance of net assets is increasing, and it is recommended to focus on insurance companies with good asset-liability matching and growth resilience [2] - The overall Q1 report for the insurance industry exceeded expectations, with high growth in new business value validating the benefits of market reshuffling for leading companies [2]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年4月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國人民保險集團股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年5月6日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01339 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 8,726,234,000 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 8,726,234,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 8,726,234,000 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 8,726,234,000 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | A 股份 ...

Group 1: Agricultural Insurance Development - The insurance sector is focusing on rural revitalization by enhancing specialized systems and innovating product services to provide financial support for rural development [1] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has issued a notice to improve agricultural insurance coverage and services, aiming to expand agricultural property insurance [1] - Agricultural insurance provided risk coverage of 0.91 trillion yuan in the first two months of this year, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.28% [1] Group 2: High-Standard Farmland Insurance - Sichuan Province is implementing high-standard farmland construction to improve agricultural conditions, which includes a dedicated insurance product to cover potential quality defects and natural disaster damages [2] - The insurance product has conducted 41 risk inspections for new projects, identifying 662 risk points with a rectification rate of 71.6% [2] - The insurance company has provided 260 inspections for completed projects, discovering 274 risk hazards [2] Group 3: Claims Processing Efficiency - Traditional agricultural insurance claims processes are often delayed due to various factors, including insufficient personnel and incomplete documentation [5] - The introduction of the "Tianfu Grain Shu Nong One Card" debit card has streamlined claims processing, achieving a payment success rate of 99.98% and reducing the average claims cycle by 20 days [6][7] - The card allows for quick verification of farmer information and disaster situations, significantly improving the accuracy and speed of claims payments [7] Group 4: Technological Innovations in Risk Management - The insurance company is utilizing new technologies such as drone remote sensing and AI to enhance risk assessment and management efficiency [4] - A comprehensive risk reduction model has been established, integrating preemptive measures and post-event compensation to improve social benefits and leverage financial resources [4] - In the context of livestock insurance, innovative products like yak price index insurance have been developed to help farmers mitigate risks from natural disasters and market fluctuations [8][9] Group 5: Yak Farming Risk Reduction - The insurance company has provided risk coverage for 19.83 million yaks under central policy insurance, with a total payout of 20.91 million yuan benefiting over 9,129 households [8] - A collaborative project with Southwest Minzu University aims to develop low-cost feeding techniques for yaks during harsh winter conditions, enhancing livestock survival rates and production efficiency [9]

Core Insights - China Life Insurance reported a net profit of 12.85 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43.4%, aligning with expectations [1] - The combined ratio (COR) improved to 94.5%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by reduced disaster risks and effective cost management [2] - The investment income surged to 12.2 billion yuan, marking a 390% year-on-year increase, indicating strong investment performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.85 billion yuan, with property and casualty insurance net profit at 11.31 billion yuan, up 92.7% year-on-year [1] - Life and health insurance net profits were 3.65 billion yuan and 2.43 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -4.4% and +59.9% respectively [1] - The total premium income for property and casualty insurance was 180.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [2] Group 2: Underwriting and Premium Growth - The COR for property and casualty insurance improved significantly, attributed to reduced disaster risks and enhanced expense management [2] - The premium growth was steady, with auto insurance premiums at 71.7 billion yuan and non-auto insurance premiums at 108.7 billion yuan, both showing positive year-on-year growth [2] - There was a notable divergence in growth rates among non-auto insurance segments, with health insurance growing by 6.5% while agricultural insurance declined by 4.1% [2] Group 3: Investment and Asset Management - The company's net assets increased to 279.3 billion yuan, up 3.9% quarter-on-quarter, supported by effective asset-liability matching [3] - The total investment return rate for property and casualty insurance improved to 1.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [3] - The solvency ratios for core and comprehensive solvency were 216.3% and 237.5%, respectively, indicating a strong capital position [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong buy recommendation, anticipating continued profit growth driven by improved COR and NBV [4] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 46.5 billion, 49.3 billion, and 51.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.4%, 6.0%, and 3.6% respectively [4] - The current closing price corresponds to dynamic P/B ratios of 1.08, 1.01, and 0.95 for 2025-2027 [4]

中国平安保险（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"中国平安"）一季度实现归属于母公司股东的营运利润 379.07亿元，同比增长2.4%。其寿险及健康险业务新业务价值达128.91亿元，同比增长34.9%。其中， 代理人渠道新业务价值同比增长11.5%，银保渠道新业务价值同比增长170.8%。一季度，中国平安旗下 平安产险实现原保险保费收入851.38亿元，同比增长7.7%；整体综合成本率96.6%，同比优化3.0个百分 点。 同期，中国太平洋保险（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"中国太保"）旗下太保寿险实现规模保费 1184.22亿元，同比增长11.8%；新业务价值57.78亿元，可比口径下同比增长39.0%。中国太保旗下太保 产险实现收入稳定增长、效益显著提升，取得原保险保费收入631.08亿元，同比增长1.0%。 归母净利润最高增长超四成 业务运营整体平稳 2025年一季度，中国经济起步平稳，延续回升向好态势，A股上市险企业务经营整体平稳。 具体来看，一季度，中国人寿保险股份有限公司（以下简称"中国人寿"）总保费达3544.09亿元，同比 增长5.0%。其中，续期保费为2469.75亿元，同比增长9.7%。该公司 ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 156,589 million, an increase of 12.8% compared to RMB 138,778 million in Q1 2024[5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB 12,849 million, reflecting a significant growth of 43.4% from RMB 8,963 million in the same period last year[5] - Basic earnings per share increased to RMB 0.29, up 43.4% from RMB 0.20 in Q1 2024[5] - The weighted average return on net assets rose to 4.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points compared to 3.7% in the previous year[5] - Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 36,549 million, representing a 10.2% increase from RMB 33,154 million in Q1 2024[5] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 12,815 million, up 43.5% from RMB 8,928 million in Q1 2024[5] - Total operating revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 156,589 million, a 12.8% increase from RMB 138,778 million in Q1 2024[28] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for Q1 2025 was RMB 12,849 million, up 43.1% from RMB 8,963 million in Q1 2024[29] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of March 31, 2025, amounted to RMB 1,800,490 million, a 1.9% increase from RMB 1,766,384 million at the end of 2024[5] - Total liabilities as of March 31, 2025, amounted to RMB 1,418,786 million, an increase from RMB 1,399,158 million as of December 31, 2024[26] - The total equity attributable to shareholders of the parent company increased to RMB 279.346 billion, a growth of 3.9% from the end of the previous year[14] - The asset-liability ratio decreased to 78.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous period[25] - Total liabilities and equity as of March 31, 2025, were RMB 1,800,490 million, an increase from RMB 1,766,384 million as of December 31, 2024[27] Insurance Business Performance - Insurance service revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 136.11 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%[14] - The combined insurance premium income for PICC Property and Casualty was RMB 120.741 billion, a 6.1% increase year-on-year[15] - PICC Life achieved insurance service revenue of RMB 7.084 billion, with a net profit of RMB 3.653 billion, marking a 48.0% increase in revenue[18] - PICC Health reported insurance service revenue of RMB 7.483 billion, with a net profit growth of 59.9%[21] - The comprehensive cost ratio for PICC Property and Casualty improved to 94.5%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year[15] Shareholder Information - As of the report date, the total number of ordinary shareholders was 146,097 for A-shares and 4,954 for H-shares[9] Cash Flow and Investment - Cash flow from operating activities for Q1 2025 was RMB 36,549 million, an increase from RMB 33,154 million in Q1 2024[31] - Investment cash outflow for Q1 2025 was RMB 40,122 million, compared to a cash inflow of RMB 5,306 million in Q1 2024[32] - The company reported an investment income of RMB 12,218 million for Q1 2025, significantly higher than RMB 2,494 million in Q1 2024[28] - The company recorded investment income of RMB 142 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to RMB 14 million in the same period of 2024, indicating a substantial increase[35] - The company reported a net cash outflow from investing activities of RMB (1,122) million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to a cash inflow of RMB 347 million in the same period of 2024[36]

Core Insights - The growth in premium income does not necessarily lead to an increase in insurance service income, as revealed in the 2024 annual reports of listed insurance companies [1][4]. Group 1: Insurance Service Income Trends - In 2024, the insurance service income showed divergence among listed insurance companies, with property insurance companies experiencing growth while life insurance companies saw declines [2][4]. - Among the three major property insurance companies, all reported increases in insurance service income: China Pacific Insurance at 191.4 billion yuan (up 8.1%), Ping An Property at 328.1 billion yuan (up 4.7%), and China Re at 485.2 billion yuan (up 6.1%) [2]. - Conversely, four out of five listed life insurance companies reported declines in insurance service income, with China Life down 2%, Ping An Life down 0.1%, China Taiping down 2.3%, and Xinhua Insurance down 0.5%. However, China Re Life reported a significant increase of 23% [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of New Accounting Standards - The implementation of the new insurance contract standards has changed how insurance income is reported, shifting from premium income to insurance service income, which is recognized based on the progress of service delivery rather than upon receipt of premiums [4][5]. - The difference in accounting treatment means that while premium income can be recognized immediately, insurance service income is recognized over the service period, leading to potential discrepancies between the two metrics [4][5]. - The insurance industry is still transitioning to the new standards, and there is a lack of understanding and focus on the insurance service income metric among industry participants [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - As the industry adapts to the new standards, the importance of insurance service income is expected to increase, particularly for life insurance companies that are moving towards high-quality development and should focus on value premiums rather than just scale [6][7]. - The complexity of the insurance service income metric, which involves various assumptions and calculations, has contributed to its lower visibility compared to traditional premium income [5][6].

Group 1 - The second batch of insurance fund long-term investment reform pilot has made significant progress, with TaiKang Asset Management receiving approval to establish a wholly-owned private fund management subsidiary [1][2] - TaiKang Asset will issue a contract-type private securities investment fund with an initial investment scale of 12 billion yuan (approximately 1.2 billion USD) from TaiKang Life, focusing on long-term investment strategies [2][3] - The pilot program aims to enhance the efficiency of insurance fund usage and improve asset-liability matching under new accounting standards, with a total approved scale of 162 billion yuan (approximately 16.2 billion USD) for the second batch [3][6] Group 2 - The first batch of pilot programs began in October 2023, with China Life and Xinhua Insurance each contributing 25 billion yuan (approximately 2.5 billion USD) to establish a 50 billion yuan (approximately 5 billion USD) company fund, which officially started investing in March 2024 [3][4] - The second batch has expanded from 5 billion yuan (approximately 500 million USD) to 162 billion yuan (approximately 16.2 billion USD), with the number of participating insurance companies increasing from 2 to 8 [3][5] - The pilot program is designed to facilitate the entry of long-term funds into the market, addressing investment barriers faced by insurance companies and enhancing their role as stabilizers in the capital market [6][8] Group 3 - The new contract-type funds will allow insurance companies to mitigate the impact of market volatility on their profit statements through specific accounting measures, such as equity method accounting and OCI classification [7][8] - The pilot program is expected to promote a positive interaction between insurance funds and the capital market, enhancing the depth and breadth of insurance capital participation [8]

Company Overview - The company ranked 158th in the 2024 Fortune Global 500 list[5]. - The company holds approximately 68.98% of the shares in PICC Property and Casualty, which operates property insurance in mainland China[6]. - The company directly and indirectly holds 80.00% of PICC Life Insurance, which operates life insurance and health insurance businesses[6]. - The company has a robust management team supported by experienced shareholders and a high-quality professional talent pool[7]. - The company is committed to sustainable development and fulfilling its social responsibilities[7]. Financial Performance - Total assets reached CNY 1,766.32 billion, an increase of 13.5% compared to CNY 1,556.68 billion in 2023[17]. - Net profit for 2024 was CNY 56.78 billion, representing an 84.3% increase from CNY 30.81 billion in 2023[18]. - Insurance service revenue grew to CNY 537.71 billion, up 6.7% from CNY 503.90 billion in 2023[20]. - The weighted average return on equity increased to 16.4%, up 7.0 percentage points from 9.4% in 2023[17]. - Original insurance premium income reached CNY 2,693.02 billion, a 4.7% increase year-on-year[20]. - Total investment income was CNY 82.16 billion, reflecting an 86.2% increase year-on-year[22]. - The group reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 42.15 billion in 2024, marking an impressive year-on-year increase of 88.8%[48]. - The group’s total revenue for 2024 was CNY 622.22 billion, a 12.4% increase from CNY 553.47 billion in 2023[57]. Investment and Asset Management - The company has a strong asset management platform with a solid investment performance and a conservative investment style[7]. - Investment assets exceeded CNY 16 trillion, growing by 14.6% from the beginning of the year[20]. - The scale of managed assets grew to CNY 3.6 trillion, up 16.7% year-on-year[38]. - The investment portfolio as of December 31, 2024, totaled CNY 1,641.756 billion, with fixed income investments accounting for 67.9% of the total[117]. - The total investment yield for 2024 was 5.6%, up by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year[123]. Digital Transformation and Technology - The company emphasizes digital transformation through its subsidiary PICC Technology, which provides data empowerment and smart technology services[6]. - The company has established a technology insurance product library and signed the first batch of major technology breakthrough insurance, covering 31 trillion yuan in insurance liabilities for 120,000 high-tech enterprises and 67,000 specialized and innovative enterprises[25]. - The company has accelerated digital construction, focusing on building a unified technological foundation across six key areas, enhancing its core technological competitiveness[32]. - The company achieved an operating revenue of CNY 622.2 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.4%[38]. Risk Management - The group maintains sufficient solvency and effective execution of risk preferences, with ongoing improvements in revenue-cost matching[143]. - The group has established a comprehensive risk management system, focusing on organizational structure transparency and risk assessment, with semi-annual reports to senior management and the board[145]. - The company has implemented an intelligent risk control platform to enhance risk monitoring and early warning capabilities, which won a first-class award from the People's Bank of China[141]. - The group emphasizes liquidity risk management, conducting regular assessments and enhancing cash flow monitoring to maintain a reasonable liquidity level[149]. Health and Agricultural Insurance - The company is focused on expanding its health insurance services, being the first national professional health insurance company in China[7]. - The company has provided risk protection of 2.1 trillion yuan for 55.42 million agricultural households through agricultural insurance, including a new insurance product for agricultural seed quality resources[25]. - Agricultural insurance service revenue reached CNY 55.466 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%[69]. - The health insurance segment achieved original premium income of CNY 48.70 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, with first-year premium income growing by 50.2%[51]. Customer Satisfaction and Market Position - The company has improved customer satisfaction, with net promoter scores increasing by 6.0%, 4.4%, and 6.0% for property, life, and health insurance respectively[31]. - The group maintained a market share of 31.8% in the property insurance market as of December 31, 2024[48]. - The company plans to leverage opportunities from national policies to enhance its operational effectiveness and achieve high-quality development in 2025[40]. Future Outlook and Strategic Goals - The company aims to leverage its competitive advantages in the insurance sector to support national strategies and economic stability[7]. - The group is focused on building a world-class insurance financial group with five key development goals[41]. - The company anticipates macroeconomic risks, including international uncertainties and domestic economic challenges, but expects steady progress due to policy support[155]. - The group plans to deepen reforms and promote high-quality development in alignment with national modernization goals[44].