Q&A 保险资产配置交流 20251118 摘要 头部保险公司二级权益配置比例多在 10%-15%，激进者近 20%，收益 普遍达 20%以上，偏好红利股和成长价值股。中小险企分化明显，激进 者维持高仓位，但偿付能力压力迫使其降低仓位，仓位弹性较大。 行业内股票、基金及长期股权投资占比已达 23%，接近 30%监管上限。 大型机构权益配置基本在 20%以上，但受偿付能力和非上市权益增量限 制，加之年底回调，加仓空间有限。 大型国央企明年将增配红利股、高股息标的，或通过私募证券基金增配 长期股权投资。激进机构可能转向科技成长，但对科技或 OCI 策略存在 分歧。中小险企短期内仍将提高权益仓位以追求超额收益，但操作弹性 受偿付能力影响。 上市保险公司权益中枢合理范围在 12%-15%，大权益中枢增加 4-5 个 百分点。2026 年，头部险企或被动增加约两个百分点，预计权益中枢 将围绕 14%-17%区间制定，大权益比可能再增加约 4 个百分点。 平安和太保配置风格趋同，偏向 OCI 和高股息资产。平安股票配置替代 长期债券，OCI 占比持续增长。太保偏向价值投资和红利股，委外管理 高波动成长股票以补偿收益。 今 ...

Summary of Insurance Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The insurance industry is experiencing significant profit growth, with overall profit growth exceeding 30% in the first three quarters of 2025, and quarterly growth approaching 70% [1][5] - The industry is shifting focus from premium income to investment returns, emphasizing the importance of positive returns from premiums rather than just the total premium volume [1][10] Key Financial Metrics - Insurance companies' return on equity (ROE) has surpassed 30% for some A-share listed companies, significantly higher than the approximately 10% ROE of leading brokerage firms [5] - The non-annualized comprehensive investment return rate for the first three quarters of 2025 is approximately 5.4%, a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point [4][14] Premium Income and Growth - Premium income is expected to continue double-digit growth, projected to reach between 4.45 trillion to 4.6 trillion yuan in 2025, up from around 4 trillion yuan the previous year [1][7] - New business value (NBV) is also showing high growth, with some companies like China Life and Ping An seeing significant increases in new single premium income [7] Investment Strategies - As of mid-2025, the insurance industry's investment asset scale is approximately 36 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of about 9% since the beginning of the year [11] - The proportion of bond investments has risen to over 50%, while equity assets remain stable at around 12% to 13% [12] Dividend Policies - Companies are expected to announce significant increases in dividends for the 2025 fiscal year, reflecting strong profit performance despite previous volatility in profit due to new accounting standards [6][21] Channel Development - The bank insurance channel is gaining prominence, with its new business value share increasing significantly, while the number of individual insurance agents is declining [9][20] - The bank insurance channel's premium share is expected to surpass that of individual insurance channels soon [20] Future Outlook - The outlook for the insurance industry in 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of continued growth in premium income, particularly from the bank insurance channel [22] - The market is advised to focus on profit growth rather than just valuation levels when selecting investment targets [22][27] Regulatory Changes - The transition to new accounting standards from 2023 to 2025 is a significant factor, with full implementation expected in 2026, which poses challenges for companies, especially smaller ones [13] Investment Opportunities - The insurance sector remains an attractive investment option, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong profit growth and stable dividend policies [27] Miscellaneous Insights - The demand for savings-type products remains strong despite declining household incomes, as these products are more closely related to household wealth rather than income levels [8] - The insurance industry is increasingly viewed as a potential asset management company, focusing on improving asset management capabilities in a low-interest-rate environment [19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Taiping (00966.HK) with a target price of HKD 22.6 [1][6][9] Core Views - China Taiping is positioned as a leader in the transformation towards participating insurance, with a strong potential for valuation recovery. The company is actively pushing for this transformation, which is expected to reduce rigid costs from new policies and alleviate the pressure from declining interest rates [8][9][10] Financial Performance - The projected insurance service revenue for 2024 is HKD 22,024 million, with a year-on-year growth of 18.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach HKD 8,432 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 36.2% [2][3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at HKD 2.35, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.8 [2][3] Business Segments Life Insurance - China Taiping's life insurance segment is a key driver, contributing approximately 80% of the net profit. The new business value (NBV) has started to recover in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 23% to HKD 6.8 billion in 2025H1 [6][32] - The company has a robust channel structure, primarily through individual agents, with a significant shift towards participating insurance, which accounted for 29% of the new business in 2025H1 [32][52] Property and Casualty Insurance - The domestic property and casualty insurance business is gradually improving, with a combined ratio (COR) of 95.5% in 2025H1, indicating a year-on-year improvement [59][60] - The overseas property and casualty insurance segment, primarily in Hong Kong and Macau, has shown slower growth, contributing 14% to the overall property and casualty business [67] Asset Management - The asset management segment has seen steady growth, with total managed assets exceeding HKD 2.65 trillion as of 2025H1. The investment performance has been influenced by interest rates, with a focus on equity allocations expected to yield strong beta opportunities [6][9][10] Valuation and Estimates - The report utilizes the Present Value of Embedded Value (PEV) method for valuation, predicting an embedded value per share (EVPS) of HKD 56, 64.6, and 74.1 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The current dynamic PEV is estimated at 0.33x for 2025 and 0.28x for 2026, with a target PEV of 0.35x for 2026 [9][10]

Group 1 - The insurance industry is expected to shift towards participating insurance products in 2026 due to resilient liability growth despite a low interest rate environment. Sales of participating insurance have exceeded earlier expectations, which may drive positive growth in new individual premium income and sustain high growth in bank insurance channels [1][2][3] - The participating critical illness insurance is anticipated to boost the sales of protection products, optimize product structure, and diversify revenue sources. However, challenges remain on the asset side, as low interest rates continue to pressure cash investment returns, squeezing the space to cover the rigid costs of life insurance [1][4] - High-quality sales channels and asset-liability matching are deemed crucial for insurance companies to maintain competitive advantages amid uncertainties. Companies such as AIA, Ping An, PICC, and China Taiping are recommended for attention [1][4][10] Group 2 - Participating insurance is rapidly regaining mainstream status after years of stagnation, driven by a rebalancing of interests between insurance companies and customers in a low interest rate environment. Compared to traditional insurance, participating insurance aligns the interests of policyholders and insurers more closely, making it more suitable for the current low-rate context [2][14] - The expected growth rate of new business value (NBV) for listed companies in 2026 is projected to reach around 20%, driven by the resurgence of participating insurance [2][14] Group 3 - The competitive strategy for participating insurance is more complex than traditional insurance, with a focus on establishing an appropriate market image or product persona. Strategies can be categorized into low-risk and high-risk approaches, depending on the target customer’s risk preference and the product's design [3][25] - Companies with high-quality sales channels have more flexibility in choosing their strategic direction, which should align with market image, customer positioning, product design, channel capabilities, and asset matching [3][25] Group 4 - The main challenges for insurance investments in 2026 include stabilizing cash returns and maintaining capital gains. The low interest rate environment is expected to compress cash investment returns, continuing to pose difficulties in covering rigid costs [4][30] - The past two years have seen excellent performance in equity investments, significantly boosting overall investment returns and profits for insurance companies. However, maintaining this level of performance in 2026 will require further advancements [4][32]

Core Viewpoint - Strengthening asset-liability matching management has become a consensus in the industry, with many life insurance companies adjusting their development concepts on both the liability and asset sides to achieve this goal [1][2]. Group 1: Asset-Liability Management Challenges - The complexity of life insurance business necessitates a sophisticated understanding of asset-liability management, which poses new challenges for corporate management and organizational structure [1][2]. - There is a prevalent misunderstanding of "asset-liability matching management," with some substituting "duration gap" for "asset-liability matching," leading to significant deviations from the core principles of asset-liability management [1][2][8]. Group 2: Independent Account Management - Asset-liability management should focus on each independent account within life insurance companies rather than the overall company, as these accounts have distinct asset ownership, liability responsibilities, and risk allocations [3][4]. - The establishment of independent accounts is a significant operational decision that requires clear management logic and a rigorous decision-making process [5]. Group 3: Core Concepts of Asset-Liability Management - The core demands of asset-liability management include matching, interaction, and dynamic management, which should not be rigidly interpreted as an absolute equality between assets and liabilities [6][7]. - The management of asset-liability interactions remains disconnected, despite some recognition of the need for two-way interaction management [6][8]. Group 4: Data System Improvement - The complexity of life insurance business leads to a diverse array of economic principles and management perspectives, necessitating an improvement in the data system for asset-liability management [8][9]. - The concept of "duration gap" is often misused as a substitute for "asset-liability matching," which can lead to secondary risks if treated as a static management goal [8][10]. Group 5: Duration Calculation Issues - The current calculation of liability duration is relatively straightforward, while the calculation of asset duration is overly rigid and disconnected from reality [10][11]. - The existing rules for calculating asset duration primarily focus on fixed-income assets, neglecting the impact of equity and other asset classes, which can distort the overall asset-liability management [10][12]. Group 6: Recommendations for Improvement - It is recommended to realistically assess the extendability of historical data in the current liability cash flow model and incorporate future economic changes into the evaluation of life insurance contract liabilities [13][14]. - A comprehensive asset duration calculation model that aligns with investment management practices should be developed to reflect the unique long-cycle nature of life insurance [14].

Core Insights - The insurance industry in China is experiencing a significant increase in premium income, with a total exceeding 2.7 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a continuous upward trend in growth rates [8][9][11]. Group 1: Premium Growth and Rankings - The "old six" insurance companies, including Xinhua, are seeing accelerated premium growth, particularly in individual and bank insurance channels [16][19]. - China Life, Ping An Life, and other leading insurers have reported premium growth rates exceeding 10% in the second quarter of 2025 [19][21]. - Xinhua Insurance has achieved a remarkable premium growth rate of 22.7%, driven by both individual and bank insurance channels [24][25]. Group 2: Emerging Players and Market Dynamics - Zhongyou Life and AIA have consistently outperformed the industry average, with premium growth rates above 10% [26][29]. - Companies like Jianxin Life and Nongyin Life are also experiencing rapid premium growth and improved rankings, benefiting from strong bank insurance channel performance [30][33]. - Smaller insurance companies are facing a slowdown in growth, with an increasing number reporting negative growth, highlighting a growing divide in the market [35][37]. Group 3: Product Performance and Channel Contributions - Traditional insurance products are showing a premium growth rate of 36%, contributing significantly to overall premium increases [25]. - The bank insurance channel has become a crucial growth driver, with major insurers reporting over 30% growth in this segment [21][22]. - The performance of dividend insurance products has been particularly strong, with some companies reporting growth rates exceeding 100% [24][29].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing a recovery in premium growth driven by savings-type insurance products, particularly dividend insurance, since 2025. The recent adjustments in predetermined interest rates are expected to influence product attractiveness and sales strategies within the industry [1][2]. Industry Overview - As of the end of August 2025, the insurance industry achieved a total original premium income of 47,999 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.63%, with growth accelerating for five consecutive months. Life insurance accounted for 37,999 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.32% increase [2][3]. - The life insurance sector saw a significant monthly premium income growth of 47.24% in August, driven by short-term "炒停售" (speculative suspension) activities [3][4]. Product Insights - The predetermined interest rates for ordinary products, dividend insurance, and universal insurance have been lowered to 2.0%, 1.75%, and 1.0%, respectively, with reductions of 50 basis points, 25 basis points, and 50 basis points. This adjustment is expected to stimulate premium income in the short term [4][5]. - Dividend insurance is becoming a core product in a low-interest-rate environment, as it offers a "low guaranteed return + high floating return" structure, allowing insurance companies to share investment risks with policyholders and reduce rigid repayment costs [5][6]. Financial Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, property insurance companies reported a total premium income of 12,201 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.67%. Notably, auto insurance premiums reached 6,006 billion yuan, up 4.33%, while non-auto insurance premiums grew by 5.0% [6]. Recommendations - Companies with strong sales foundations, such as China Ping An (601318.SH) and China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328), are recommended for attention due to their potential benefits from the current market dynamics [7].

Core Viewpoint - The differentiation in the development of participating insurance among life insurance companies is influenced by multiple factors, including early positioning, efforts from leading insurers, and strategic considerations regarding distribution channels and product types [1][10][29]. Group 1: Early Positioning - Companies like Zhonghong and MetLife have seen rapid growth in participating insurance premiums due to their early market entry [1]. - The overall market for participating insurance has seen a significant decline in its share, dropping approximately 50 percentage points over the past decade to around 20% [12][13]. Group 2: Efforts from Leading Insurers - Leading insurers are experiencing high growth rates in new participating insurance policies, although adjustments in business structure may take time [11]. - For instance, Xinhua Insurance reported a first-year premium of 4.6 billion for participating insurance, showing a substantial increase compared to the previous year [14]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - The growth of participating insurance is heavily reliant on distribution channels, particularly the banking insurance channel, which has shown a 9.4% year-on-year increase in premium income [7]. - Companies like Zhongyou Life and AIA have leveraged their strong distribution networks to achieve rapid growth in participating insurance premiums, with Zhongyou Life's premiums exceeding 260 billion in 2024, marking an 180% increase [18]. - The choice to focus on participating insurance varies among companies, influenced by their investment capabilities and strategic goals [24][25]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The overall premium income for life insurance companies reached 3.57 trillion by the end of August 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 10% compared to the beginning of the year [4]. - The participating insurance segment has seen a growth rate of around 90% in the second quarter of 2025, significantly outpacing the traditional insurance segment's growth of approximately 20% [9][10]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - Participating insurance requires higher investment return assumptions compared to traditional insurance, which can lead to varying strategies among insurers regarding product offerings [22][23]. - Companies with strong investment capabilities, such as Ping An, are better positioned to support the growth of participating insurance through effective capital management [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth of participating insurance premiums in the first half of 2025, highlighting a shift towards these products amid changing market conditions and sales strategies. Group 1: Participating Insurance Premium Growth - In 2025, participating insurance premiums achieved positive growth for the first time in five years, with a growth rate of approximately 4% by the end of 2024 [3] - By mid-2025, the total participating insurance premiums reached around 500 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of about 1%, which is a slowdown compared to the previous year [3] - The slowdown in premium growth is attributed to a shift in sales focus from participating insurance to traditional insurance products through bank insurance channels [3][14] Group 2: Company Performance - Major companies like Ping An, Taiping, and Xinhua reported participating insurance premium growth rates exceeding 20% in the first half of 2025 [5] - Taiping Life's participating insurance premiums doubled, marking the fastest growth among peers, while Ping An's growth rate reached 41% compared to the same period in 2024 [6] - New single premium growth for participating insurance saw significant increases, with Xinhua's first-year premiums reaching 4.6 billion, reflecting a high-speed growth [9] Group 3: Distribution Channels - The individual agent channel has become a significant driver for participating insurance, with companies like China Life and Taiping reporting that over 50% of their new single premiums come from participating insurance [12] - The growth rate of participating insurance in the individual agent channel is notably higher than in the bank insurance channel, which has shifted focus to traditional insurance products [14] - In the second quarter of 2025, participating insurance premiums experienced a growth rate of approximately 90%, significantly outpacing traditional insurance's growth rate of around 20% [14] Group 4: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The adjustment of preset interest rates for traditional and participating insurance has narrowed the gap, potentially accelerating the industry's shift towards participating insurance products [19] - The overall dividend realization rate for participating insurance products improved to 61.7% in 2024, up by 10.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a favorable environment for continued growth [19] - The article suggests that the combination of reduced interest rate disadvantages and improved dividend realization rates may support the ongoing development of participating insurance in the future [19]

Summary of Sunshine Insurance Conference Call Company Overview - Sunshine Insurance is focused on improving its value rate due to regulatory policies and internal cost reduction efforts, with external and internal factors contributing equally to the enhancement of new business value rates across various channels [2][3]. Key Points Business Performance - As of August 2025, Sunshine Life achieved positive growth in new single premium insurance, with new single premium income remaining stable compared to the same period last year. The expected comparable growth rate for the year could reach 50%-60% under unchanged economic assumptions [2][5]. - The company has implemented a dual-track strategy post the adjustment of the predetermined interest rate, balancing between participating insurance (minimum guaranteed rate of 1.75%) and traditional insurance (pricing at 2.0%) to meet diverse customer needs [2][8]. Cost Management and Efficiency - Sunshine Insurance has initiated several measures to enhance efficiency in the individual insurance channel, including improving expense efficiency, reforming the commission system, and optimizing fixed cost management. These efforts are expected to yield positive results in the second half of the year [5][6]. - The cost of liabilities for existing business is below 3%, while new business liabilities range between 2% and 2.5% as of June 2025. Positive contributions from mortality and expense variances have been noted, with significant growth in morbidity and non-morbidity contributions [2][9]. Market Strategy and Product Offering - The company has launched new products with a focus on both participating and traditional insurance, adapting to market changes and customer preferences. The sales strategy will not solely focus on participating insurance but will offer products based on customer demand [8][9]. - Sunshine Insurance's contract service margin (CSM) balance reached 56.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.3%, driven by new business contributions and favorable investment returns from participating accounts [9]. Industry Trends and Regulatory Impact - The increase in the comprehensive loss ratio for Sunshine Property Insurance is attributed to the need for increased reserves due to extreme weather, changes in business structure, and the long-tail effects of high-risk businesses [4][10]. - The implementation of the unified pricing and sales model is expected to lead to business fluctuations in the short term but may improve cost structures and reduce reliance on intermediaries in the long run [11][12]. Investment Strategy - Sunshine Insurance maintains a core asset allocation strategy of 75% fixed income and 25% equity, with a focus on high-dividend, high-value, and high-yield investments. The equity investment strategy emphasizes long-term value [13][14]. - The company has been proactive in managing fixed income investments, aiming to maintain stable asset duration while dynamically adjusting to market changes [15][16]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates stable growth in net profit, with life insurance expected to contribute over 4 billion annually. The overall performance is projected to improve due to a favorable investment strategy and market conditions [17]. - Sunshine Insurance aims to maintain a stable growth policy for dividends, focusing on consistent per-share dividend growth without tying it to specific metrics like net profit [18]. Additional Insights - The company is closely monitoring market dynamics and will adjust strategies accordingly to ensure sustainable growth [6][7].