数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证800证券保险指数(399966)前十大权重股分别为中国平安 (601318)、东方财富(300059)、中信证券(600030)、国泰海通(601211)、中国太保(601601)、华泰证券 (601688)、中国人寿(601628)、广发证券(000776)、招商证券(600999)、新华保险(601336)，前十大权重 股合计占比64.71%。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 光大证券指出，当前，传统险/分红险/万能险预定利率已分别降至2.0%/1.75%/1.0%，其中分红险与传统 险预定利率轧差已由50bp收窄至25bp。考虑到分红险具备一定浮动收益空间，以及25年以来上市险企总 投资收益同比高增，分红实现率有望得到保障进而赋能产品销售，未来分红险将成为保险市场主力产 品。在居民储蓄意愿持续高企、银行存款挂牌利率进一步下调（25年5月五大行及招行1Y/2Y/3Y/5Y期 存款挂牌利率分别降至0.95%/1.05%/1.25%/1.30%）等背景下，分红险"1.75%保底+浮动"收益IRR或在财 富管理市场更具竞争优势；同时，春节效应下今年1月工作日较 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance industry, with expectations of double-digit growth in new premiums and net profit value (NBV) driven by the migration of deposits and improved margins [2][22]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from strong household savings demand, with insurance products becoming increasingly attractive as low-risk savings options amid declining bank deposit rates [2][22]. - The transition towards participating insurance products is anticipated to enhance market share for leading insurance companies, as they leverage their stronger investment capabilities and distribution channels [2][3]. - The report highlights a favorable market environment for insurance stocks, driven by high demand for new policies and a stable investment return outlook, which is expected to support valuation recovery [4][8]. Summary by Sections Liability Side Outlook - New business and NBV are projected to grow at double-digit rates, supported by strong household savings and a shift towards insurance products due to declining bank deposit rates [2][22]. - The insurance sector is expected to maintain stable margins despite the downward adjustment of preset interest rates and the transition to participating insurance [2][22]. Asset Side Outlook - Insurance funds are expected to actively enter the market, with a significant portion of new premiums allocated to equities, particularly in A-shares [3][16]. - The report anticipates a diversified approach to asset allocation, with a focus on high-dividend stocks and sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing [3][19]. Market Performance Review - The insurance sector has outperformed the broader market, with significant gains in both A-shares and H-shares, indicating strong investor confidence [8][4]. - The report notes that the insurance index has increased by 27.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 18.2% [8]. Premium Income and Profitability - New premium income is expected to achieve double-digit growth, with specific companies like China Life and Ping An showing substantial increases in their new business premiums [14][32]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a favorable cost structure and investment returns to support profitability in the insurance sector [4][11].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the insurance industry, focusing on the impact of new regulations on asset-liability management and the growth prospects for major insurance companies, particularly in the context of the low interest rate environment and upcoming accounting standards [1][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments Growth Projections - The insurance industry is expected to maintain strong premium growth in 2026, with a high double-digit growth potential, particularly in Q1 due to pre-emptive premium collection by major companies [2][3]. - Major insurance companies are rapidly expanding their bancassurance channels, with Ping An's network projected to grow from 6,000 to 19,000 outlets by Q3 2025, aiming for a 50% increase by the end of 2026 [2]. - The new business growth rate for major insurance companies in the bancassurance channel is estimated to exceed 30%, with companies like Ping An potentially reaching over 50% [2]. Market Dynamics - Large insurance companies are gaining market share at the expense of smaller firms, with large companies' new business growth rate around 40% and market share rising from 30% to 40% [4]. - Despite the market pressure, the risk of large-scale defaults among smaller insurance companies is considered manageable due to improved capital gains and regulatory support [4]. Regulatory Changes - New regulations have introduced quantitative indicators for asset-liability management, including duration gaps and liquidity coverage ratios, to adapt to the low interest rate environment [5][6]. - The focus of the new rules is on 3-5 year indicators rather than just current period metrics, aiming to enhance risk management and asset allocation [6]. Asset Allocation Trends - The insurance asset allocation is expected to shift towards participating insurance products, increasing equity asset allocation while reducing demand for long-duration bonds [11]. - The average liability duration for participating insurance products is around 10-12 years, while the industry average is 15-17 years [8]. Investment Strategies - Regulatory requirements for major insurance companies include directing 30% of new premiums to A-shares, which may be subject to adjustments in the coming years [13][14]. - Smaller insurance companies, which account for 35%-40% of total industry investment assets, may see a decline in demand for bank capital bonds due to new accounting standards [9]. Future Outlook - The trend indicates a significant increase in the proportion of participating insurance products, expected to reach over 60% in new business by 2026, with some aggressive players targeting 70-80% [18]. - The overall sentiment towards the stock market for 2026 remains optimistic, influencing the allocation strategies for long-term bonds [17]. Additional Important Insights - The new accounting standards and regulatory measures are expected to enhance the overall stability and risk management of the insurance sector [12]. - The impact of the stock market performance on insurance companies' asset allocation strategies will be closely monitored, especially in light of solvency pressures [15][16].

2025年12月26日，在《证券日报》社有限责任公司举办的"2025证券市场年会"金融分论坛圆桌论坛环 节，由重阳投资合伙人舒泰峰担任主持人，新华资产管理股份有限公司副总经理但罗林，生命保险资产 管理有限公司总经理（拟任）徐倩，国泰海通资产配置部总经理张谦，嘉实基金副总经理、股票投研 CIO姚志鹏，鹏扬基金副总经理李净，华泰资产管理有限公司副总经理万慧勇等行业资深专家，围 绕"追光与避险：资管机构的财富守护之道"这一主题展开深入探讨。 论道资产配置机遇 共绘投资新程 今年以来，权益市场回暖态势显著，行至年末收官阶段，市场各方纷纷围绕未来金融市场的投资机遇展 开密集研判。 锚定行业发展坐标 书写发展新篇 近年来，我国资产管理行业在蓬勃发展的同时，也面临着痛点与堵点。业内人士围绕细分行业实际问 题，展开深入探讨，以期找到破局之道。 公募基金作为普惠式金融工具，是居民进行财富管理的重要工具。李净表示："在指数化投资大发展的 当下，考虑到经济和市场的结构化特征，市场仍存在阿尔法机会，公募基金仍要重视拥抱主动管理。" 万慧勇表示，"确定性"是保险、银行等机构投资者当前尤为关注的核心要素，因此，未来的投资应将胜 率置于首 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is undergoing significant transformation, necessitating timely adjustments in operational strategies due to new accounting and financial instrument standards that will reshape revenue, profit, and net asset measurement logic [1][9]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The industry faces challenges such as team attrition, shrinking intermediaries, and the rise of bank insurance, which are fundamentally linked to the difficulties in asset-liability management [3][11]. - External economic conditions, including a downward trend in interest rates and complex rate environments, pose risks of long-term interest spread losses and current operational difficulties [3][11]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory policies have been introduced, including adjustments to preset interest rates, unified reporting, restrictions on dividends, and limits on scale not exceeding five times net assets [3][11]. - The upcoming new insurance contract accounting standards and financial instrument standards will require companies to adapt their operational strategies accordingly [1][9]. Group 3: Product Strategy - Product strategy is crucial as it reflects the impact of regulatory policies and is closely tied to external economic conditions and the specific circumstances of different companies [3][11]. - A differentiated product strategy is essential, with companies like Huagu Life implementing such strategies effectively, including limiting certain products and focusing on traditional insurance [4][12]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Huagu Life has reported positive growth rates in premium income, revenue, total assets, net assets, internal value, new business value, and profit, with stable solvency ratios [5][12]. - The upcoming new standards set to be implemented in 2026 will lead to a marketing push for dividend insurance, which is expected to become a mainstream product [5][12]. Group 5: Product Selection Considerations - Companies must consider their existing business costs and structures, as well as current assessment criteria when deciding on product strategies between dividend and traditional insurance [13][14]. - The contribution of low-cost and high-cost business models to profit sources varies, necessitating different product strategies for companies based on their cost structures [13][14]. Group 6: Customer Needs - Meeting diverse customer needs is paramount, with high-net-worth clients seeking wealth management solutions and traditional fixed-income products appealing to mass-market clients [15]. - A diversified product strategy that balances stable low returns with high-risk floating returns can effectively cater to different customer segments [15].

中国人寿 20251217 摘要 中国人寿预计 2026 年利率或在历史低位区间震荡，向上空间存在，反 内卷政策和提振消费战略可能推动利率上升。长债投机买盘需求下降， 利率有向上空间但过程曲折。对股票市场长期看好，但大幅修复机会减 少，以结构性机会为主，关注交易不拥挤、高业绩兑现及增量资金流入 板块。 中国人寿在债券配置上坚持中性偏灵活策略，根据市场供给和利率走势 调整。截至三季度末，公开市场权益约占 16%，将根据监管政策、市场 需求及公司组合管理需要合理安排配置空间，总体保持稳步优化配置。 中国人寿目前有效久期缺口在两年以下，是行业最低水平之一。偿付能 力因子调整对公司增配权益影响较小，公司仍会结合负债端需求、组合 管理需要及其他固收品种收益合理判断增配比例。 分红险在权益类资产上的占比略高于传统险。截至三季度末，公司持有 2,300 多亿高股息股票，其中约 2000 亿归入 OCI，占公开市场权益的 大约 20%。未来，公司计划提升 FVOCI 的占比，以降低股价波动对投 资收益和公司利润的影响。 Q&A 2025 年四季度以来，中国人寿在投资端的表现如何？包括权益和固收方面的 整体趋势如何？ 2025 ...

中国太平 20251217 摘要 太平人寿三季度调整投资策略，自 5 月起响应六部委号召，稳步提升 A 股权益规模，并得益于部分板块的投资收益。上半年净投资收益率为 3.11%，预计总投资收益率将反弹并可能超过去年水平。 2025 年太平人寿税率较 2024 年明显下降，有助于提升税后收益。公 司已全面采用新会计准则，但境内业务仍受旧准则影响，新旧准则过渡 期间的税率差异正在逐步解决。 香港火灾事件中，太平作为总部设在香港的金融央企承担重要社会责任， 参与了 20 亿港元保额的保单理赔。公司通过分保和再保分散风险，自 留额较低。 中国太平启动"开门红"活动，在分红险转型基础上进行产品多元化， 可能增加年金型分红险、保障类产品或传统险的比例，目标是与头部公 司对标并保持领先地位。 中国太平在银保渠道方面，2024 年受益于报行合一政策实现快速增长， 2025 年增速相对放缓但价值贡献显著提升。公司积极拓展与股份制银 行的合作，银保网点数量持续增长。 Q&A 公司在 2025 年第三季度的权益投资收益率是多少？利润相较于第二季度大幅 提升的主要原因是什么？ 集团整体不发布三季报，但部分子公司根据偿付能力要求发布了 ...

Q&A 新华保险在 2025 年第四季度的投资端表现如何？ 从 2025 年第三季度的整体情况来看，新华保险的投资端表现较为亮眼。进入 第四季度后，市场走势与公司预期基本保持一致。截至年底，由于 12 月份还 有两周多时间，存在一些不确定因素。在低利率环境下，负债成本刚性和市场 不确定性增强给公司带来挑战。新华保险近年来始终围绕强化资产负债联动， 不断稳定核心收益并增强收益底仓，同时严防风险底线。目前来看，公司整体 表现基本符合预期。 对于 2026 年的资本市场展望，尤其是权益市场和长端利率的短期及中长期预 期是什么？ 新华保险 20251216 摘要 新华保险在低利率和市场不确定性环境下，通过强化资产负债联动，稳 定核心收益，严控风险，整体表现符合预期。公司关注权益市场长期稳 健超额收益，固收方面积极寻求交易性机会增厚收益。 公司将综合考虑资金利率中枢、资产到期情况等因素配置利率债，高利 率时适当增配，低利率时适当减持，通过超长期国债、地方债等获取稳 定收益，拉长久期。 新华保险近年来逐步缩小久期缺口，目前处于较为理想状态，资产久期 约 10 年，负债久期约 13-14 年。未来将继续协调资产和负债两端， ...

Core Insights - China Pacific Insurance emphasizes a core strategy of dividend value in equity investments, which provides stability across market cycles and addresses net investment income pressures [1] - The company is focusing on diversified equity investment strategies to enhance returns and better cover customer guarantee costs [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies - The company has iterated its methodology for dividend insurance account configurations, establishing multiple layers of investment return targets to ensure sustainable allocation plans [1] - A "core + satellite" investment strategy is maintained, with a focus on optimizing equity allocation structures to achieve competitive investment returns [4] Group 2: Duration Management - Duration gap management has reached a new stage, with a significant increase in the allocation of long-term government bonds to compress duration gaps effectively [2] - The company believes that a reasonable duration gap can help create better long-term returns rather than pursuing an absolute zero gap [2] Group 3: Alternative Assets - The inclusion of alternative assets is seen as a way to enhance long-term returns and hedge against market volatility, with a focus on strategic emerging industries and innovative opportunities [5][6] - The alternative investment sector covers themes such as healthcare, technology innovation, mergers and acquisitions, and infrastructure, forming a resilient combination for steady returns [6] Group 4: Global Asset Allocation - Global asset allocation is essential for achieving long-term cost coverage, with a focus on building capabilities through platforms established in Hong Kong [7] - Effective risk management, particularly regarding currency fluctuations, is crucial for successful overseas investments [7] Group 5: Gold Investment - Gold is viewed as a niche product for risk diversification rather than a significant contributor to long-term returns, enhancing the company's diversified investment capabilities [8]

Core Insights - China Pacific Insurance emphasizes a core strategy of dividend value in equity investments, which provides stability across market cycles and addresses net investment income pressures [1] - The company is iterating its methodology for dividend insurance account allocations, focusing on differentiated investment return targets to ensure sustainable configurations [1] - The management discussed various topics including asset-liability duration strategies, equity investment configurations, long-term assessments, and global asset allocation [1] Equity Investment Strategy - The company maintains a "core + satellite" investment strategy, with a focus on dividend value that can withstand market cycles, while also diversifying satellite strategies [4] - The equity allocation is viewed as a scarce resource, requiring careful optimization to balance long-term sustainability against volatility risks [4] Duration Gap Management - Duration control is a critical aspect of fixed-income asset management, with a significant increase in long-term government bonds to effectively manage duration gaps [2] - The company believes that a reasonable duration gap can enhance long-term returns rather than pursuing an absolute zero gap [2] Alternative Assets - Alternative assets are seen as a means to enhance long-term returns and hedge against market volatility, with a focus on diversifying the investment portfolio [5] - The company is exploring various themes in its alternative investment sector, including healthcare, technology innovation, mergers and acquisitions, and infrastructure [6] Global Asset Allocation - The company recognizes the importance of global asset allocation for achieving long-term cost coverage and capitalizing on growth in emerging markets [7] - A comprehensive global allocation framework is necessary to manage risks, including currency risks, which have become increasingly important in overseas investments [7] Gold Investment - Gold is considered a niche product for insurance funds, primarily serving as a risk diversification tool rather than a significant contributor to long-term returns [8]