机构：华创证券 研究员：陈海椰/徐康 事项： 友邦保险公布2025 年中报。2025H1，公司实现NBV 同比+14%至28.38 亿美元（固定汇率，除特殊说明 外下同）；内含价值权益达到737 亿美元，每股+5%（实际汇率）；税后营运溢利36.09 亿美元，每股 +12%；产生的基本自由盈余为35.69 亿美元，每股+10%。中期股息每股49 港仙，同比+10%。 评论： 分红险转型成效明显，NBV 维持稳增。2025H1 公司实现NBV 28.38 亿美元，同比+14%。量、价双驱 支撑NBV 稳增，NBV margin 同比+3.4pct 至57.7%；年化新保费同比+8%至49.42 亿美元。 从产品结构来看，传统险占比37%（同比-1pct），分红险占比43%（同比+11pct），占比明显上升，投 资连结险占比9%（同比持平）。 从渠道结构看，1）代理队伍：NBV 同比+17%至22.2 亿美元，渠道占比78%，主要贡献来自友邦香港 代理渠道NBV 同比+35%。其中NBV margin 同比+4.4pct 至72%，预计个险营销体系改革带动渠道降本 增效，年化新保费同比+10%至30.83 亿美元 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 友邦保险（01299.HK）2025 年中报点评 推荐（维持） 中国香港市场重要性持续拔高 目标价：85.9 港元 事项： 友邦保险公布 2025 年中报。2025H1，公司实现 NBV 同比+14%至 28.38 亿美 元（固定汇率，除特殊说明外下同）；内含价值权益达到 737 亿美元，每股+5% （实际汇率）；税后营运溢利 36.09 亿美元，每股+12%；产生的基本自由盈余 为 35.69 亿美元，每股+10%。中期股息每股 49 港仙，同比+10%。 评论： 分红险转型成效明显，NBV 维持稳增。2025H1 公司实现 NBV 28.38 亿美元， 同比+14%。量、价双驱支撑 NBV 稳增，NBV margin 同比+3.4pct 至 57.7%； 年化新保费同比+8%至 49.42 亿美元。 从产品结构来看，传统险占比 37%（同比-1pct），分红险占比 43%（同比+11pct）， 占比明显上升，投资连结险占比 9%（同比持平）。 从渠道结构看，1）代理队伍：NBV 同比+17%至 22.2 亿美元，渠道占比 78%， 主要贡献来自友邦香港代理渠道 NBV 同比+35% ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing a divergence, with the insurance industry showing relative stability while the securities and diversified financial sectors are significantly impacted by market volatility [1] Group 1: Securities Industry - The trading volume in the securities industry has surged, with an average daily trading amount of 1.919 trillion yuan in early August, representing a 178% year-on-year increase and a 2.33% month-on-month increase [2] - The margin trading balance has expanded to 198.48 billion yuan, reflecting a 38.14% year-on-year increase, indicating a recovery in investor risk appetite [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has implemented reforms to optimize the IPO pricing and allocation mechanisms, effective August 4, aimed at enhancing pricing stability and attracting more quality companies to list [3] Group 2: Insurance Industry - The insurance industry has seen a key step in liability cost optimization, with the traditional insurance preset interest rate adjusted down to 1.99%, prompting major insurers to lower their preset rates by 25-50 basis points [5] - The life insurance premium income in Q2 2025 grew by 15.2% year-on-year, significantly outperforming Q1, while property insurance maintained steady growth with premiums reaching 964.5 billion yuan, a 5.1% year-on-year increase [6] - The insurance sector's estimated P/EV valuation range is between 0.60-0.91 times, indicating a historical low, with expectations of recovery in investment returns supporting valuation recovery [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the A-share market around the 3600-point mark have drawn attention to insurance funds, which have become significant players in the market by frequently acquiring bank stocks. This shift is driven by a decline in the preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance to 1.99%, creating pressure for asset allocation amidst falling bond yields, leading to a potential transformation in investment logic for insurance stocks [1][8]. Group 1: Insurance Market Dynamics - The Chinese insurance market is characterized by a dual-track system of property and life insurance, with distinct participants, product forms, and profit logic, contributing to a diverse commercial model [2]. - In the property insurance sector, six major non-life insurance companies, including China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Property Insurance, hold a combined market share of 70%, focusing on quantifiable losses from risks like property damage and business interruption [2]. - The life and health insurance market is dominated by seven major companies, including China Life and Ping An Life, which contribute 46% of the premium scale, with products spanning life insurance, pensions, and health insurance [4]. Group 2: Profit Sources and Challenges - Investment spread is the core profit driver for Chinese life insurance companies, with a shift towards dividend-type policies to mitigate pressure from declining risk-free interest rates [6]. - The mortality/morbidity spread reflects the value of protection products, with a focus on accurate pricing and commission control, necessitating enhanced actuarial capabilities and channel management [6]. - The expense spread in the Chinese market is unique, with larger companies benefiting from economies of scale, contrasting with smaller firms that face higher marketing costs [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - Recent changes in the insurance industry have sparked discussions about whether it can replicate the valuation recovery seen in bank stocks, driven by improvements in fundamentals and valuation [8]. - The adjustment of preset interest rates is crucial for alleviating the "spread loss" pressure in the life insurance sector, with expectations of a decline in new business liability costs [8][9]. - Current internal insurance companies have a PEV (Present Embedded Value) below 1, indicating significant undervaluation, with companies like China Pacific Insurance and China Life being notably undervalued [9][10]. Group 4: Market Catalysts - The combined effect of policy guidance and the insurance companies' own needs is expected to accelerate the influx of incremental funds into the market, enhancing stability and long-term investment returns [11]. - The insurance sector's current improvement in fundamentals and low valuations may lead to a similar valuation recovery as seen in bank stocks if asset returns continue to improve and liability structures adjust smoothly [11].

Core Viewpoint - The non-bank financial sector is currently undervalued with a safety margin, benefiting from economic recovery and rising interest rates, particularly in the insurance and securities industries [1] Non-Bank Financial Sector Performance - In the recent five trading days (July 21-25, 2025), the securities and insurance sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with securities up 4.90% and insurance up 1.81%, while the multi-financial sector declined by 1.65%, leading to an overall increase of 3.65% in the non-bank financial sector compared to a 1.69% rise in the CSI 300 index [2] Securities Industry Insights - Trading volume saw a significant year-on-year increase, with the average daily trading volume for July reaching 18,191 billion yuan, up 139.92% year-on-year and 18.72% month-on-month. The margin financing balance was 19,420 billion yuan, a 35.34% increase year-on-year [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on consolidating market stability and enhancing market vitality through reforms and improved regulatory effectiveness [3] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected at 1.4x for 2025, with recommendations for leading firms benefiting from active capital market policies, such as CITIC Securities and Tonghuashun [3] Insurance Industry Developments - The preset interest rate for traditional insurance has been lowered to 1.99%, which is expected to improve the liability costs for life insurance companies. Major firms like China Life and Ping An have announced reductions in their preset rates [4] - The insurance sector reported strong premium growth in Q2 2025, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in original premium income for life insurance companies and a 15.2% increase in Q2 alone [4] - The insurance industry's valuation is currently at historical lows, with a projected P/EV ratio of 0.61-0.94 for 2025, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the sector [4] Multi-Financial Sector Overview - The trust industry reported a total asset scale of 29.56 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 23.58%, although profits fell by 45.5% [5] - The futures market saw a trading volume of 740 million contracts in June, with a transaction value of 52.79 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 28.91% and 17.40% respectively [5] - Public funds increased their holdings in the non-bank financial sector, with a 1.93% total allocation by the end of Q2 2025, indicating a slight increase from Q1 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in insurance stocks is attributed to the recent adjustment in the predetermined interest rates for insurance products, which is expected to mitigate the risk of interest spread losses for insurance companies [2][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - Insurance stocks experienced a significant rally, with the Hong Kong insurance sector rising over 4%, and China Life's H-shares increasing nearly 6% [1][4]. - In the A-share market, New China Life and China Pacific Insurance also saw substantial gains, contributing to the overall surge in the sector [1][3]. - Various insurance-related warrants, such as Ping An's warrants, achieved a doubling in value within a single day [1][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Adjustments - The China Insurance Industry Association announced a new predetermined interest rate of 1.99%, which is below the previous 2.25% threshold, triggering adjustments in life insurance product rates [1][6]. - The maximum predetermined interest rates for different insurance products have been set at 2.0% for ordinary insurance, 1.75% for participating insurance, and 1.0% for universal insurance, effective from August 31, 2025 [7][10]. Group 3: Implications for the Insurance Sector - Analysts believe that the adjustment in predetermined interest rates is a significant positive development for insurance stocks, as it helps to prevent potential interest spread losses [2][8]. - The reduction in interest rates is expected to enhance the competitiveness of participating insurance products compared to traditional savings deposits and other investment vehicles [10][11]. - The shift towards participating insurance is anticipated to occur as a response to the large volume of savings deposits maturing, with insurance companies likely to benefit from this transition [11][12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The current predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is assessed at 1.99%, down from 2.13%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14 basis points [5] - The adjustment mechanism for predetermined interest rates has been triggered, leading to a non-symmetrical reduction in the maximum predetermined interest rates for traditional, participating, and universal insurance by 50, 25, and 50 basis points respectively [5] - The adjustment is primarily influenced by a significant drop in the yield of 10-year government bonds in Q4 2024, which has been anticipated by the market [5] - The report indicates that the maximum predetermined interest rate for ordinary insurance products is now 2.0%, down from 2.5%, while the maximum for participating insurance is now 1.75%, down from 2.0% [5] - The report suggests that the adjustment of 50 basis points may not align with the expected 25 basis points based on the notification requirements, but anticipates further declines in the predetermined interest rates in the second half of 2025 [5] Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The research value has been adjusted as expected, with the current rates reflecting a downward trend due to market conditions [5] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the 5-year LPR is at 3.5%, the 5-year fixed deposit benchmark rate is at 1.3%, and the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.65% [5] Industry-Market Comparison - Major life insurance companies are expected to gradually lower their product predetermined interest rates following the release of the research value [5] - The report highlights that the sensitivity of gross premium growth to interest rate changes is lower for participating insurance compared to traditional insurance [5] Investment Recommendations - The non-symmetrical reduction in predetermined interest rates is expected to benefit high-quality life insurance companies with strong sales capabilities in participating insurance [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Xinhua Insurance, China Ping An, AIA, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and China People’s Insurance [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Insights - The scheduled interest rate for traditional insurance products has been adjusted down to 2.0%, while the maximum scheduled interest rate for dividend insurance products is set at 1.75% [2][4] - The scheduled interest rate research value has decreased by 14 basis points to 1.99%, indicating a downward trend in the insurance sector's interest rates [3] - The adjustment mechanism for scheduled interest rates is triggered when the maximum scheduled interest rate for insurance products exceeds the research value by more than 25 basis points for two consecutive quarters [4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On July 25, the China Insurance Industry Association held a meeting to discuss the scheduled interest rates for life insurance products, concluding that the current research value is 1.99% [2] - Major insurance companies announced adjustments to their scheduled interest rates, with traditional insurance products set at a maximum of 2.0% and dividend insurance products at 1.75% [2] Rate Adjustments - The scheduled interest rates for traditional, dividend, and universal insurance products have been reduced to 2.0%, 1.75%, and 1.0% respectively [4] - The adjustment mechanism is activated due to the current scheduled interest rates being significantly higher than the research value, necessitating a reduction [4] Market Implications - The reduction in scheduled interest rates is expected to create a favorable environment for the development of dividend insurance products, as the previous higher rates had led to a significant increase in their market share [5] - The adjustment may cause short-term disruptions in new policy growth, but long-term benefits are anticipated as the proportion of floating income products increases [9] - The report suggests that companies with strong investment capabilities and higher dividend levels will gain a competitive advantage in the evolving market [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **insurance industry** in China, focusing on market conditions, economic factors, and the implications for insurance companies and their investment strategies [1][2][3][17]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Conditions - Since September 2024, the **Chinese economy** has shown continuous improvement, although financial data has recently shown signs of decline, particularly in real estate sales [1][3]. - The main contradiction in the macro economy for 2025 is the **insufficient effective demand** and relatively excessive capacity, characterized by weak consumption and strong manufacturing [2]. Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - The **cost of interbank funds** is decreasing at a slower rate than general interest rates, posing challenges for market yield declines [4]. - The expectation is for a **loose funding environment** in the future, with short-term interest rates having room to decline, particularly from June to August [5]. - Insurance institutions are experiencing a decline in liability costs, with the expected rate potentially dropping from **2.5% to 2.0%**, enhancing the attractiveness of long-term local government bonds [6]. Risks and Market Behavior - Major risks include potential **policy stimulus** exceeding expectations, leading to divergences in long-term logic, and a strong stock market potentially accelerating the shift of funds from the bond market to equities [7]. - The **insurance sector** is facing dual anxieties of asset scarcity and interest rate risk, prompting adjustments in investment strategies [8]. Investment Strategies - Insurance companies are adjusting their positions based on liability dynamics and increasing participation in trading, while also utilizing interest rate derivatives to hedge against long-term interest rate risks [8]. - The rapid growth of traditional insurance premiums is attributed to the faster decline in deposit rates compared to insurance product yields, making insurance products more attractive [13][11]. Future Outlook - The outlook for premium income in the second half of the year is uncertain, with expectations of potential rate cuts but no clear indication of whether this will occur [20]. - The relationship between deposits, the stock market, and insurance products is characterized by **substitutability**, where declining deposit rates could lead to increased investment in insurance products, while strong stock market performance could divert funds away from insurance [22][23]. Regulatory and Accounting Considerations - Attention is needed on variables such as **credit spreads**, **term spreads**, and the impact of new accounting standards (IFRS 9) on asset classification and reporting, which will influence asset allocation strategies [16]. Additional Important Insights - The **insurance industry** is increasingly favoring equity assets, with a reported increase in stock holdings by 1% in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a shift towards lower volatility dividend stocks [18]. - The influx of insurance premiums in mid-2024 led to a subsequent decline in expected premium inflows, highlighting the fixed nature of potential buyers and total premium volume [21]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the insurance industry in China.

Regulatory Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, encouraging commercial health insurance to expand investment in innovative drugs and establish a directory for innovative drugs covered by commercial health insurance [1] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau reported that the insurance industry achieved a premium income of 3.06 trillion yuan in the first five months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.77% [2] Industry Trends - The Financial Regulatory Bureau is implementing "reporting and execution" in the non-auto insurance sector to eliminate price wars and regulate fees, which is expected to reshape the non-auto insurance market [3] - The insurance industry is facing a pricing challenge, with expected reductions in predetermined interest rates for traditional and participating insurance products, leading companies to adjust product structures and focus on participating insurance [4] - Insurance companies are responding to recent flooding disasters in Guizhou, with over 1,000 claims reported and significant compensation already disbursed [5] Investment Activities - Insurance capital is increasingly entering the A-share market through private equity funds, with major insurers establishing or increasing their private equity fund investments, totaling an estimated 222 billion yuan [6] Corporate Actions - Xintai Life Insurance increased its stake in Hualing Steel, reaching 5% ownership, while Lianan Life Insurance also triggered a stake increase in Jiangnan Water, now holding 5.03% [7] - Sichuan Guobao Life Insurance is undergoing significant changes in ownership and management, with local state-owned assets increasing their stake and a new female leader expected to take charge [8] - Ximei Mutual Life announced the resignation of its chairman, Yang Fan, with Hu Han elected as the new chairman and CEO [9]