Core Insights - On January 8, 2026, Alibaba-W (09988), the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), and SMIC (00981) were the top three stocks by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 57.22 billion, 48.64 billion, and 33.52 billion respectively [1] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and SMIC (00981) also ranked as the top three stocks, with trading amounts of 37.64 billion, 23.27 billion, and 22.18 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect Trading Activity - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Stock Connect**: - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 57.22 billion, net inflow of +3.11 billion [2] - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800): Trading amount of 48.64 billion, net outflow of -46.31 billion [2] - SMIC (00981): Trading amount of 33.52 billion, net inflow of +3.40 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 23.97 billion, net inflow of +5.78 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): Trading amount of 22.63 billion, net inflow of +5.85 billion [2] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Trading Activity - **Top Active Companies in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect**: - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 37.64 billion, net inflow of +398.60 million [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): Trading amount of 23.27 billion, net inflow of +2.79 billion [2] - SMIC (00981): Trading amount of 22.18 billion, net inflow of +2.24 billion [2] - Meituan-W (03690): Trading amount of 19.69 billion, net outflow of -3.20 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 17.10 billion, net inflow of +4.94 billion [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a net sell-off of 49.01 billion HKD from northbound capital on January 8, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing a net sell of 39.68 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect a net sell of 9.33 billion HKD [1] - The stocks with the highest net buy from northbound capital included Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Tencent (00700), and SMIC (00981) [1] - The stocks with the highest net sell included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) [1] Group 2 - Alibaba-W (09988) saw a net buy of 3.5 billion HKD, while China Mobile (00941) faced a net sell of 7.32 billion HKD [7] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) received a net buy of 10.71 billion HKD, driven by expected revenue growth from its electric vehicle business and steady growth in its IoT segment [4] - Tencent (00700) had a net buy of 8.63 billion HKD, with optimistic outlooks from analysts regarding its role in the AI technology sector [5] Group 3 - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) experienced a significant net sell of 46.31 billion HKD, indicating a strong outflow of capital [2] - SMIC (00981) had a net buy of 5.63 billion HKD, while Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) faced a net sell of 4.13 billion HKD, reflecting a divergence in the semiconductor sector [5] - Goldwind Technology (02208) received a net buy of 1.3 billion HKD, with potential positive catalysts from its stake in Blue Arrow Aerospace [5]

1月8日，华虹公司大宗交易成交7万股，成交额710.85万元，占当日总成交额的0.21%，成交价101.55元，较市场收盘价126.3元折价19.6%。 | 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( * ) 买入营业部 | | 卖出营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 平安证券股公有限 公司上海分公司 | | | 2026-01-08 | 华虹公司 | 688347 | 101.55 710.85 | | 平安证券股份有限 公司上海闵行区閔 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Huahong Semiconductor's management expects robust demand across its technology platforms, which will support high capacity utilization and enhance product mix and average pricing [1] Group 1: Capacity and Production - Management plans to optimize the product mix and increase pricing, alongside ongoing cost control measures, maintaining a positive outlook on future profitability [1] - Fab 9B is expected to gradually increase its monthly capacity to 83,000 wafers by 2027, with expansions in 28/22nm capacity planned between 2027 and 2029 [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Profitability - The company aims to increase the proportion of locally sourced equipment and materials, which is expected to have a positive impact on profit margins [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - Based on high capacity utilization, ongoing capacity expansion, and the transition to 28/22nm technology nodes, Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong with a target price of HKD 117, reflecting a forecasted 2028 P/E ratio of 68.8 times, above the historical average of 22 times [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Huahong Semiconductor (01347) with a target price of HKD 117, reflecting a forecasted 2028 price-to-earnings ratio of 68.8 times, which is above the historical average of 22 times, indicating a positive outlook on the company's sustainable scale expansion and technological innovation [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Outlook - The company is expected to maintain high capacity utilization rates due to robust demand across its technology platforms, which will support product mix optimization and average price increases [1] - Management is focused on optimizing the product mix and enhancing pricing strategies, alongside ongoing cost control measures, leading to a positive outlook on future profitability [1] Group 2: Capacity Expansion Plans - Fab9B is projected to gradually increase its monthly production capacity to 83,000 wafers by 2027, with further expansion of 28/22nm capacity planned between 2027 and 2029 [1] - The company aims to increase the proportion of domestic supply chain equipment and materials used, which is expected to have a positive impact on profit margins [1]

Group 1 - Chip stocks are performing strongly, with Shanghai Fudan up 3.98% at HKD 52.3, Huahong Semiconductor up 3.19% at HKD 92.15, and SMIC up 2.81% at HKD 76.8 [1] - During CES 2026, major chip companies Nvidia, AMD, and Intel are competing by launching new AI chip products, with Nvidia showcasing the next-generation Vera Rubin platform consisting of six independent chips, featuring 72 GPUs and 36 CPUs [1] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced that the Vera Rubin platform is in full production and expected to ship later this year, with AI computing capabilities up to five times that of previous chips [1] Group 2 - Nvidia is finalizing details with the US government regarding the export license for the H200 chip to China, with expectations for delivery soon [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the H200 chip will help meet China's training needs and potentially increase demand for inference chips, thereby expanding market demand [2] - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about SMIC, viewing it as a key supporter of localizing AI in China, and expects strong demand for advanced logic chips [2]

Core Viewpoint - The chip industry in 2025 is experiencing significant fluctuations due to tariff events and supply shortages, leading to price surges and market speculation, with mixed sentiments regarding overall demand growth [3][4]. Original Manufacturers - Domestic analog manufacturers report a 20% decline in consumer segment revenue for 2025 compared to 2024, while industrial segment revenue is expected to double, returning to levels seen in 2020-2022, with a projected 30% growth in 2026 [3][4]. - Overseas chip manufacturers anticipate stable revenue in 2025 compared to 2024, with new opportunities arising in the automotive sector [5]. Distributors - Chip distributors indicate an increase in customer volume and product lines in 2025, but face declining profit margins and extended payment terms, with overall risks increasing [7]. - A distributor focusing on trade reports a stable performance in 2025, with opportunities arising from the storage sector and a cautious outlook for 2026 due to high risks associated with new products [8][15]. Trade - Chip traders report a 50% increase in business in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by demand for ADI and storage products, with a positive outlook for 2026 [18]. - Another trader notes that demand for storage products has improved significantly since March 2025, with expectations of a favorable market in 2026 due to AI server demand and rising raw material costs [19]. Foreign Trade - Foreign trade companies indicate improved performance in 2025, primarily due to business from the Anshi brand, with strong demand from Europe and the US [21][22]. Solution Providers - Chip solution providers report growth in 2025, particularly in the second half of the year, but express concerns about market competition and uncertainty in product development cycles [24][25]. Major Companies Dynamics - TSMC reported a revenue of NT$343.6 billion in November 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and revised its revenue growth forecast for 2025 to mid-thirty percent [28]. - SMIC achieved a revenue of $2.382 billion in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 17.4%, and plans to raise prices for certain processes by 10% [29]. - Hua Hong Semiconductor reported a revenue of $6.352 billion in Q3 2025, with a utilization rate exceeding 100% for seven consecutive quarters [30]. - Longsys Technology achieved a revenue of NT$100.6 billion in Q3 2025, marking a historical high and a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [31]. - Foxconn reported a 22.07% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 2025, driven by strong performance in AI-related infrastructure [32]. - Winbond's revenue reached NT$107.93 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.98%, attributed to strong demand in automotive and communication components [34].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The strong demand for AI is expected to drive price increases for TSMC's advanced process technology from 2026 to 2029, indicating a trend of continuous supply shortages globally [3][4] - Domestic demand for advanced logic chips is anticipated to rise rapidly, with significant growth in both demand and supply expected during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - Recent capital market activities by SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor suggest improvements in profitability and advancements in advanced logic processes [6] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - TSMC's N2 node is set to begin mass production in Q4 2025, with initial monthly capacity of approximately 35,000 wafers, expected to increase to 140,000 wafers by the end of 2026, surpassing previous market estimates [4] - The demand for advanced processes remains tight despite the early ramp-up of U.S. wafer fabs and the unexpected capacity of 2nm technology [4] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The import scale of core semiconductor equipment in Shanghai reached approximately 55.8 billion yuan from January to November 2025, a 41% increase compared to 2024, indicating a favorable expansion pace [5] - The trend of "China for China" in advanced process foundries is expected to gain momentum as domestic technology matures [5] Capital Market Activities - SMIC's acquisition of the remaining 49% stake in SMIC North is expected to enhance profit margins, with a projected 19% increase in net profit for the first eight months of 2025 [6] - Hua Hong's acquisition of Hua Li Micro is anticipated to improve revenue by 30% and net profit by 269% for the same period [6] Investment Recommendations - The semiconductor equipment and foundry sectors are expected to benefit from the growth in advanced process demand, with recommended stocks including SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and others [7]

Core Viewpoint - Huahong Semiconductor (01347) has seen a significant stock price increase, with a rise of nearly 6% in intraday trading and an overall increase of over 40% since December 17. The current stock price is reported at HKD 92.85 with a trading volume of HKD 22.25 billion [4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Huahong Semiconductor plans to acquire approximately 97.5% of Huali Micro for a transaction price of HKD 8.268 billion. This acquisition is expected to enhance the company's market share in the global foundry market and improve supply capabilities in specialty processes [4]. - The integration of Huali Micro is anticipated to significantly boost Huahong's performance, with projected net profit increasing from HKD 380 million to HKD 960 million, representing a 151% growth. This will also elevate earnings per share (EPS) from HKD 0.22 to HKD 0.50, a 127% increase [4]. Group 2: Financial Impact - The acquisition is expected to bring in approximately HKD 7.6 billion in cash through supporting financing, which will enhance the company's total assets and net assets by 16% and 21% respectively. This will significantly improve liquidity and support production line upgrades [4].

Summary of Hua Hong Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hua Hong (1347.HK) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Manufacturing Key Points Demand and Capacity Expansion - Management anticipates solid demand across technology platforms, supporting high utilization rates (UT rate) [1] - Fab 9B is projected to ramp up to 83k wafers by 2027, with additional capacity for 28/22nm products planned for 2027-29 [1][6] Product Mix and Pricing Strategy - The company plans to optimize its product mix and increase average selling prices (ASP) by 5-10% due to strong end-market demand [6][7] - Continuous cost management efforts are expected to enhance profitability [6] Local Supplier Utilization - Hua Hong aims to increase the use of local suppliers for semiconductor production equipment (SPE) and materials, currently at a local supply ratio of 20-30% [6] Financial Outlook - The company is positive about profitability due to a better cost structure and disciplined depreciation [6] - Management expects a small increase in depreciation for Fab 7 in 2026, stabilizing for 2-3 years before decreasing [6] Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month target price for Hua Hong is set at HK$117.0, based on a P/E ratio of 68.8x for 2028E, reflecting a positive outlook driven by sustainable scale expansions and technology migrations [3][7] - Current market cap is HK$146.0 billion, with an expected revenue increase from HK$2,004 million in 2024 to HK$4,004 million by 2027 [8] Risks - Key downside risks include weaker-than-expected end-market demand, slower ramp-up of 12" fabs, and uncertainties surrounding US-China trade relations [7] Additional Insights - The company maintains a Buy rating due to high loading, continuous capacity expansions, and migration towards advanced technology nodes [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of localizing suppliers to improve profit margins and production efficiency [6] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding Hua Hong's operational strategies, financial outlook, and market positioning within the semiconductor industry.