Group 1 - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price from HKD 25.2 to HKD 36, designating it as a preferred stock [1] - The management of China Hongqiao has confirmed its commitment to enhancing shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks, while also seeking greener electricity supplies in China [1] - The chairman of China Hongqiao expresses caution regarding the expansion of aluminum production capacity in Indonesia [1] Group 2 - Citigroup remains optimistic about the aluminum industry, expecting tight supply due to China's production capacity limits (annual capacity of 45.2 million tons) and no explosive capacity increases in Indonesia, which will help maintain high aluminum margins [2] - Earnings forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised by +2%, +5%, and +7% respectively, reflecting higher aluminum and alumina sales and increased average aluminum price predictions [2] Group 3 - The company is focused on maintaining a high dividend payout ratio and share buybacks to enhance shareholder returns, with a projected dividend yield of 6.7% for 2026, despite strong stock performance year-to-date [3] - Citigroup anticipates that China Hongqiao will continue to benefit from sustained high aluminum margins and will undergo valuation reassessment [3]

Market Overview - The US stock market indices collectively declined on Tuesday, with the Hang Seng Index ADR falling to 25,866.46 points, down by 85.94 points or 0.33% compared to the Hong Kong close [1]. Company Performance - Major blue-chip stocks mostly experienced declines, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 108.602, up by 0.56% compared to the Hong Kong close, while Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 623.88, down by 0.81% [3]. - Tencent Holdings saw a decrease of HKD 5.12 or 0.81% in its ADR price, closing at HKD 623.88 [4]. - Alibaba Group's ADR fell by HKD 4.20 or 2.57%, closing at HKD 159.00 [4]. - Xiaomi Group's ADR dropped by HKD 1.30 or 2.91%, closing at HKD 43.42 [4]. - AIA Group's ADR decreased by HKD 0.30 or 0.38%, closing at HKD 79.62 [4]. - NetEase's ADR fell by HKD 3.40 or 1.54%, closing at HKD 216.80 [4]. - Ctrip Group's ADR declined by HKD 4.50 or 0.81%, closing at HKD 548.50 [4]. - BYD's ADR decreased by HKD 2.00 or 2.02%, closing at HKD 97.10 [4]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's ADR fell by HKD 3.20 or 0.75%, closing at HKD 425.60 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price from HKD 26.90 to HKD 34.1, citing strong performance from its core subsidiary and favorable supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum industry [1][3] Financial Performance - China Hongqiao's core subsidiary, Shandong Hongqiao, achieved a net profit of RMB 19.4 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The net profit for Q3 2025 alone reached RMB 6.9 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.4% and a year-on-year growth of 17.6% [1] - The increase in aluminum and alumina prices contributed approximately RMB 500-600 million to the net profit in Q3, while cost savings from reduced electricity prices during the rainy season in Yunnan amounted to around RMB 300 million [1] Market Conditions - Since Q3 2025, aluminum prices have exceeded expectations due to improved macroeconomic conditions and optimized supply-demand dynamics, with current spot prices surpassing RMB 21,000 per ton [2] - Despite some price corrections in alumina and rising coal and electricity costs, if aluminum prices remain stable, the operating profit for China Hongqiao in Q4 is expected to be on par with Q3 [2] Valuation and Dividends - Jefferies has adjusted its net profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 4% and 8%, respectively, to RMB 25.9 billion and RMB 26.7 billion, based on aluminum price assumptions of RMB 20,600 and RMB 20,800 per ton [2] - The target price of HKD 34.1 corresponds to a dividend yield of nearly 6%, based on a projected payout ratio of 63% for 2024, highlighting the company's strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price from HKD 26.90 to HKD 34.1, citing strong performance from its core subsidiary and favorable supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - China Hongqiao's core subsidiary, Shandong Hongqiao, achieved a net profit of RMB 19.4 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The net profit for Q3 2025 alone reached RMB 6.9 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.4% and a year-on-year growth of 17.6% [1]. - The increase in aluminum and alumina prices contributed approximately RMB 500-600 million to the net profit in Q3, while cost savings from reduced electricity prices during the rainy season in Yunnan added around RMB 300 million [1]. Market Conditions - Since Q3 2025, aluminum prices have exceeded expectations due to improved macroeconomic conditions and industry supply-demand optimization, with current spot prices surpassing RMB 21,000 per ton [2]. - Despite some price corrections in alumina and rising coal and electricity costs, if aluminum prices remain stable, the operating profit for China Hongqiao in Q4 is expected to match that of Q3 [2]. Debt and Valuation - The impact of convertible bond fair value changes on net profit is expected to decrease significantly in the second half of 2025, as the majority of the bonds issued in 2021 have been converted [2]. - Jefferies has raised its net profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025 and 2026 by 4% and 8%, respectively, to RMB 25.9 billion and RMB 26.7 billion, based on aluminum price assumptions of RMB 20,600 and RMB 20,800 per ton [2]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - Jefferies sets a target price based on a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times for 2026, with a corresponding dividend yield of nearly 6% based on a 63% payout ratio for 2024 [3]. - The company continues to generate strong cash flow and provides substantial returns to shareholders through stable dividends (over 60% payout ratio) and share buybacks, which supports the "Buy" rating [3].

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has raised the target price for China Hongqiao following the robust third-quarter performance of its main subsidiary [1] Group 1 - Jefferies increased the target price from HKD 26.90 to HKD 34.10 [1] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating on China Hongqiao [1]

Core Points - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,167.41, reflecting a slight increase of 0.03% on November 3, 2023 [1] - Major blue-chip stocks showed mixed performance, with HSBC Holdings rising by 1.13% while Tencent Holdings fell by 0.21% [2] Stock Performance Summary - Tencent Holdings: Latest price at 628.00 HKD, down by 1.00 HKD (-0.16%), ADR price at 626.678 HKD, a decrease of 1.322 HKD compared to the Hong Kong market [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price at 163.20 HKD, down by 1.90 HKD (-1.15%), ADR price at 162.916 HKD, a decrease of 0.284 HKD compared to the Hong Kong market [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price at 108.30 HKD, up by 0.20 HKD (+0.19%), ADR price at 109.527 HKD, an increase of 1.227 HKD compared to the Hong Kong market [3] - AIA Group: Latest price at 79.95 HKD, up by 4.50 HKD (+5.96%), ADR price at 79.996 HKD, a slight increase of 0.046 HKD compared to the Hong Kong market [3] - BYD Company: Latest price at 99.10 HKD, down by 1.50 HKD (-1.49%), ADR price at 98.008 HKD, a decrease of 1.092 HKD compared to the Hong Kong market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that capacity realization and cost reduction are key competitive factors at the current stage, with China Hongqiao (01378) expected to achieve leapfrog growth through overseas expansion and deep empowerment of upstream and downstream operations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Shandong Hongqiao achieved revenue of 1169.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a net profit of 193.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23% [2] - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenues of 402 billion yuan, 380 billion yuan, and 387 billion yuan for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 2%, and 2% [2] - The net profits for Q3 2025 were 64 billion yuan, 61 billion yuan, and 69 billion yuan for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 47%, 11%, and 18% [2] Group 2: Aluminum Price and Profitability - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 was 20,711 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [3] - The cost of electrolytic aluminum in Shandong was reported at 15,299 yuan per ton, while in Yunnan it was 15,445 yuan per ton [3] - The industry profit for electrolytic aluminum was 4,125 yuan per ton in Q3, showing a year-on-year increase of 128% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22% [3] Group 3: Capacity Transfer Plan - China Hongqiao plans to transfer 44.8 thousand tons, 24.1 thousand tons, and 83.1 thousand tons of capacity from Shandong to Yunnan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - After 2028, the company will maintain stable total electrolytic aluminum capacity in both Shandong and Yunnan without further adjustments [4] Group 4: Financing Activities - The company issued a 300 million USD convertible bond maturing in 2030, with an initial conversion price of 20.88 HKD per share [5] - The net proceeds from the bond issuance are approximately 290 million USD, intended for refinancing existing offshore debt and general corporate purposes [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao is expected to achieve significant growth through overseas expansion and deep empowerment of upstream and downstream operations, with capacity realization and cost reduction being key competitive factors [1] - The company reported that its subsidiary, Shandong Hongqiao, achieved revenue of 116.93 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a net profit of 19.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23% [1] - For the third quarter of 2025, Shandong Hongqiao's revenue was 38.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2%, and net profit was 6.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18% [1] Group 2 - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 was 20,711 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [2] - The complete cost of electrolytic aluminum in Shandong was 15,299 yuan per ton, while in Yunnan it was 15,445 yuan per ton [2] - The profit for the electrolytic aluminum industry in Q3 was 4,125 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 128% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22% [2] Group 3 - China Hongqiao plans to transfer a total of 152,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity from Shandong to Yunnan between 2025 and 2027, with no further adjustments to total capacity expected after 2028 [3] Group 4 - The company issued a $300 million convertible bond maturing in 2030, with an initial conversion price of HKD 20.88 per share, and the net proceeds from the bond issuance are approximately $290 million [4] - The proceeds from the bond issuance will be used for refinancing existing offshore debt and general corporate purposes [4]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01378 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 20,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 | USD | | 200,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 20,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 | USD | | 200,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 200,000,000 第 1 頁 共 ...

Core Insights - The company reported strong performance for its subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao in Q3 2025, with revenue of 116.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a net profit of 19.37 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year [1] - The profitability of electrolytic aluminum has significantly improved, with Q3 2025 industry profit reaching 4,125 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 128% [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Shandong Hongqiao achieved revenues of 40.2 billion yuan in Q1, 38 billion yuan in Q2, and 38.7 billion yuan in Q3, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 2%, and 2% respectively [1] - Net profits for the same quarters were 6.4 billion yuan, 6.1 billion yuan, and 6.9 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 47%, 11%, and 18% respectively [1] Market Dynamics - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 was 20,711 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [1] - The cost of electrolytic aluminum production in Shandong was 15,299 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1% quarter-on-quarter, while in Yunnan it was 15,445 yuan per ton, down 6% quarter-on-quarter [1] Capacity and Strategic Moves - The company plans to transfer a total of 152,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity from Shandong to Yunnan between 2025 and 2027, with no further adjustments expected post-2028 [2] - The company issued 300 million USD in convertible bonds due in 2030, with an initial conversion price of 20.88 HKD per share, aimed at refinancing existing offshore debt and general corporate purposes [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 24 billion yuan, 25.5 billion yuan, and 27.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11.9, 11.2, and 10.5 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its potential for growth through capacity realization and cost reduction strategies [3]