Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao [5] Core Views - The performance of Shandong Hongqiao in Q3 2025 was impressive, with revenue reaching 116.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and net profit of 19.37 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year [1] - The profitability of electrolytic aluminum has rapidly improved, with the average price in Q3 2025 at 20,711 yuan per ton, a 6% increase year-on-year [1] - The company plans to transfer electrolytic aluminum capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, with a total of 44.8 million tons, 24.1 million tons, and 83.1 million tons scheduled for 2025 to 2027 [2] - The company issued 300 million USD of convertible bonds due in 2030, with an initial conversion price of 20.88 HKD per share [2] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 24 billion, 25.5 billion, and 27.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.9, 11.2, and 10.5 [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 163.76 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.9% year-on-year [4] - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 24.03 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [4] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025 is expected to be 2.52 yuan per share [4] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is estimated at 18.2% [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 256.68 billion yuan by 2025 [9]

Group 1 - UBS released a performance review report on China Hongqiao Group, focusing on its core subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao's Q3 2025 performance, which exceeded expectations, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Shandong Hongqiao's net profit for the first nine months of 2025 reached 19.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, achieving 87% of the market consensus for 2025 and 84% of UBS's forecast [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was estimated at 6.9 billion yuan, a 17% year-on-year increase, surpassing UBS's previous estimate of 6.5 billion yuan, with overall performance slightly exceeding market expectations by 5-7% [1] Group 2 - Factors impacting performance included an 11 billion yuan gross profit change due to fluctuations in aluminum and alumina profit margins, alongside a 1 billion yuan reduction in selling, general, and administrative expenses, although income from joint ventures decreased by 300 million yuan [1] - UBS maintains a positive outlook for the aluminum industry over the next two years, anticipating continued growth in aluminum demand and overall industry profitability, with China Hongqiao positioned as an industry leader with significant scale advantages [1] - UBS forecasts diluted earnings per share (EPS) for China Hongqiao at 2.66 yuan, 3.12 yuan, and 3.33 yuan for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, all above market consensus, with stable revenue projections around 1.6 trillion yuan from 2025E to 2029E [2]

Group 1 - UBS reported that China Hongqiao Group's (01378) Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Shandong Hongqiao's net profit for the first nine months of 2025 reached 19.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, contributing to an estimated net profit of 21 billion yuan for China Hongqiao, achieving 87% of the market consensus and 84% of UBS's expectations [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was estimated at 6.9 billion yuan for Shandong Hongqiao, a 17% year-on-year increase, surpassing UBS's previous forecast of 6.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - UBS maintains a positive outlook on the aluminum industry for the next two years, believing there is still growth potential in aluminum demand, with overall industry profitability supported [1] - China Hongqiao, as an industry leader, has a scale advantage with 6.46 million tons of aluminum and 19.5 million tons of alumina, and a robust financial structure, expected to further release profit potential during industry upcycles [1] - UBS identified two key risks for China Hongqiao: weaker-than-expected supply-demand balance for aluminum and alumina leading to price declines, and unexpected increases in electricity prices in China, particularly in Yunnan, which could raise production costs [2] Group 3 - UBS forecasts optimistic earnings for China Hongqiao, estimating diluted EPS of 2.66 yuan, 3.12 yuan, and 3.33 yuan for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, all above market consensus [2] - Revenue is projected to stabilize around 1.6 trillion yuan from 2025E to 2029E, with EBIT margins maintained in the range of 22%-25%, indicating robust profitability [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup reaffirms a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and maintains it as a top recommendation following the strong performance of its subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao in the third quarter [1] Financial Performance - Shandong Hongqiao reported total revenue of 116.926 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 6.23% [1] - The net profit for the first nine months reached 19.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23% [1] - In Q3, the net profit was 6.9 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% (not adjusted) [1] Market Factors - The quarter-on-quarter net profit growth is attributed to rising prices of aluminum and alumina, along with reduced electricity prices during the rainy season [1] - Shandong Hongqiao's net profit accounted for 78% to 107% of China Hongqiao's net profit since the beginning of 2023, mainly adjusted for minority interests, overseas operations (including alumina and bauxite), and fair value losses related to convertible bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup reaffirms "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) following the strong performance of its subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao in Q3, indicating another robust quarter ahead for the company [1] Financial Performance - Shandong Hongqiao reported total revenue of 116.926 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 6.23% [1] - Net profit for the first nine months reached 19.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23% [1] - Q3 net profit was 6.9 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 13% (unadjusted) [1] Factors Influencing Performance - The quarter-on-quarter net profit growth is attributed to rising prices of aluminum and alumina, along with reduced electricity prices during the rainy season [1] - Shandong Hongqiao's net profit accounted for 78% to 107% of China Hongqiao's net profit since the beginning of 2023, after adjustments for minority interests, overseas operations (including alumina and bauxite), and fair value losses related to convertible bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao's subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao, raising the target price from HKD 26.00 to HKD 35.00 [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shandong Hongqiao reported total revenue of RMB 116.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.23% [1] - Net profit reached RMB 19.37 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.13% [1] - In Q3, net profit was RMB 6.9 billion, showing an 18% year-on-year growth and a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase, aligning with expectations [1] - Q3 gross margin expanded by 3 percentage points to 26% [1] Profit Growth Drivers - Profit growth is attributed to two main factors: 1. Margin expansion, with industry aluminum profit increasing by RMB 900 per ton and alumina profit rising by RMB 200 per ton in Q3 [1] 2. Contribution from the Wenshan project, which began contributing profits after the acquisition of the remaining 25% stake in Q2 [1] Industry Outlook - The Chinese aluminum industry is expected to remain resilient in Q4 due to low inventory, stable upstream supply, and seasonal demand from the power grid [1] - Current spot aluminum prices have risen above RMB 21,000 per ton, while alumina prices remain in the RMB 2,800–2,900 per ton range, with aluminum profit margins exceeding RMB 5,000 per ton [1] - Spot aluminum profit margins are projected to further increase by RMB 600 per ton compared to Q3 [1] Price Forecast Adjustments - Bank of America has raised its aluminum price forecast for 2025 to RMB 20,600 per ton (+RMB 100 per ton) and for 2026 to RMB 21,000 per ton [2] - As a result, profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025-2027 have been increased by 5%-23%, with expected net profits of RMB 26 billion in 2025 (up 17% year-on-year) and RMB 30 billion in 2026 (up 15% year-on-year) [2] Investment Rationale - Reasons for maintaining a "Buy" rating include: 1. Constructive outlook on aluminum prices [2] 2. Attractive dividend yield (6%-7% under a 63% payout ratio assumption) [2] 3. The Ximangdu project is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, contributing approximately 3% to profits in 2026, with long-term potential to increase to 9% [2] 4. Ongoing share buybacks are expected to support the stock price [2] - The current target price corresponds to a 10x P/E ratio for 2026 forecasts, which remains attractive compared to Chinese copper companies (12-16x) and gold companies (16-17x) [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao's subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao, raising the target price from HKD 26.00 to HKD 35.00 based on strong revenue and profit growth [1] Group 1: Company Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shandong Hongqiao reported total revenue of CNY 116.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.23%, and a net profit of CNY 19.37 billion, up 23.13% year-on-year [1] - In Q3, net profit reached CNY 6.9 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase and a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase, aligning with expectations; the gross margin expanded by 3 percentage points to 26% [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The aluminum industry in China is expected to remain resilient in Q4 due to low inventory, stable upstream supply, and seasonal demand from the power grid, with aluminum prices slightly strengthening [2] - Current spot aluminum prices have risen above CNY 21,000 per ton, while alumina prices remain in the range of CNY 2,800–2,900 per ton, with aluminum profit margins expanding to over CNY 5,000 per ton [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Bank of America has adjusted its aluminum price forecasts, raising the 2025 expectation to CNY 20,600 per ton (+CNY 100 per ton) and the 2026 long-term forecast to CNY 21,000 per ton [2] - The bank has increased its profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025-2027 by 5%-23%, projecting a net profit of CNY 26 billion for 2025 (up 17% year-on-year) and CNY 30 billion for 2026 (up 15% year-on-year) [2] Group 4: Investment Rationale - Reasons for maintaining the "Buy" rating include a constructive outlook on aluminum prices, attractive dividend yield (6%-7% under a 63% payout ratio), and the expected contribution from the Ximangdu project, which is anticipated to start production by the end of 2025 [3] - The ongoing share buyback program is expected to support the stock price, with the current target price corresponding to a 10x P/E ratio for 2026, which remains attractive compared to Chinese copper companies (12-16x) and gold companies (16-17x) [3]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴該等內 容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 China Hongqiao Group Limited 中國宏橋集團有限公司 （根據開曼群島法例註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1378） 自願公告 茲提述中國宏橋集團有限公司（「本公司」）日期為二零一三年四月二十五日之公告，內容有關本公司 之子公司山東宏橋新型材料有限公司（「山東宏橋」）在中華人民共和國（「中國」）發行中期票據及短期融 資券。此外，山東宏橋分別於二零二四年七月及二零二五年八月發行公司債券，根據該等公司債券 各自的有關條款，山東宏橋亦已於上海證券交易所披露其二零二五年第三季度財務資料。 由於山東宏橋的二零二五年第三季度財務資料僅有中文版本，本公司謹此提供以下由山東宏橋所編 製於二零二五年九月三十日之未經審核合併資產負債表及截至該日止九個月的未經審核合併利潤 表。 本公司董事會謹此提醒投資者，本公告所載之財務資料乃根據中國公認會計原則及未經審核管理賬 目編製。有關資料未經山東宏橋及本公 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.24% at 26,282.69 points and a total trading volume of 353.8 billion HKD [1] - Everbright Securities suggests that the opening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle may lead to continued upward movement in the Hong Kong stock market, supported by strong overall profitability and low valuations [1] Blue-Chip Performance - China Hongqiao (01378) reached a new high, closing up 8.17% at 29.92 HKD, contributing 9.9 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue-chip stocks include Zijin Mining (02899) up 4.57%, Xinyi Solar (00968) up 3.01%, while Budweiser APAC (01876) and Techtronic Industries (00669) saw declines of 4.76% and 4.74% respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Technology stocks showed mixed results, with Meituan rising over 2% and Tencent nearly 1%, while Xiaomi fell 1.69% [3] - Lithium companies Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium saw significant gains, with Ganfeng up nearly 15% and Tianqi up over 9% [3] - The copper, aluminum, and gold sectors performed well, driven by favorable macroeconomic factors [4] Lithium Industry Insights - Tianqi Lithium reported a net profit of 180 million CNY for the first three quarters, while Ganfeng Lithium achieved a revenue of 6.249 billion CNY in Q3, a 44.1% year-on-year increase [4] - The supply tightness in the lithium market is expected to drive prices up due to increased demand for energy storage [4] Renewable Energy Sector - The photovoltaic and energy storage sectors saw strong performance, with stocks like New Special Energy and GCL-Poly Energy rising significantly [4][5] - A report indicated that 17 leading companies in the photovoltaic sector have signed agreements for joint capacity storage [5] Engineering Machinery Sector - The engineering machinery sector showed positive growth, with companies like SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG rising significantly [6] - The import and export trade of engineering machinery reached 5.505 billion USD in September, marking a 29.1% year-on-year increase [6] Real Estate Sector - The domestic real estate sector remains under pressure, with several major companies experiencing declines in stock prices [6] - Fitch Ratings indicated that the Chinese real estate market has not yet bottomed out, with uncertainties surrounding recovery trends [6] Earnings Reports - High-performing stocks included Tianqi Lithium, Tigermed, and Huaneng International, all showing significant gains [7] - Conversely, ZTE Corporation faced an 88% year-on-year decline in net profit, leading to an 11.38% drop in stock price [7] Notable Stock Movements - Dipo Technology surged 47.98% on its second day of trading, focusing on enterprise-level AI solutions [8] - Aneng Logistics saw a 22.13% increase after announcing a proposal for delisting at a valuation of approximately 14.3 billion HKD [9] - China Duty Free Group rose 4.73% amid positive developments regarding the Hainan Free Trade Port [10] - WuXi AppTec declined 3.73% due to plans for a share reduction by its controlling shareholder [11]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a narrow fluctuation on October 30, 2023, with the steel sector showing significant gains, while several previously popular stocks faced adjustments [1][4][11]. Market Performance - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating above 4000 points, with the North China 50 Index rising over 2% during the session, following a previous trading day where it surged by 8.41%, marking one of its best performances of the year [4]. - The steel sector was a highlight, with companies like Anyang Iron & Steel reaching the daily limit, and others such as Fangda Special Steel and New Steel Co. also showing strong gains [5]. Sector Analysis - The coal sector led the market with a rise exceeding 1.4%, driven by increasing prices of coking coal and coke, with coking coal futures rising over 3% and coke futures increasing by more than 2% [7]. - Other sectors such as electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, transportation, and home appliances also showed notable gains [8]. - In contrast, sectors like telecommunications, comprehensive services, electronics, and building materials faced declines [9]. Conceptual Trends - Lithium mining concepts were among the top gainers, with the sector rising over 2%. Notable stocks included XWANDA, which surged by over 14%, and Dazhong Mining, which hit the daily limit [9][10]. - Other conceptual sectors like quantum technology, nickel metals, and remote work also performed well in the market [10].