Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 98.5 HKD per share based on a 2.3x PS valuation for 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The company, as the exclusive franchisee of Domino's Pizza in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, is entering a rapid store expansion phase with expected profitability improvements. In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 3.05 billion CNY, with a CAGR of 38.2% from 2019 to 2023. By the end of 2024, the company is projected to have over 1,000 stores, significantly up from 100+ in 2017 [4][6]. - The domestic pizza industry is in a growth phase, with a market size of 37.5 billion CNY in 2022 and a CAGR of 7.8% from 2017 to 2022. The penetration rate in lower-tier markets remains low, indicating substantial expansion potential [4][6]. - The report highlights the successful growth strategies of Domino's in the U.S. and draws parallels to the company's potential in China, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiency, digital innovation, and a strong franchisee management system [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is the exclusive franchisee of Domino's Pizza in China, having undergone significant management changes and expansion since 2017. It has rapidly increased its store count from 268 in 2019 to 914 in the first half of 2024 [15][20]. 2. Market Potential - The Chinese pizza market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of 45.8 billion CNY in 2023 and 77.1 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 15.5% [48]. 3. Financial Performance - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 2023 revenue of 3.05 billion CNY, and is expected to reach 4.26 billion CNY in 2024, representing a 39.6% year-on-year increase. The net profit is projected to turn positive in 2024, with a net profit margin of 2.5% in the first half of 2024 [6][35]. 4. Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a competitive edge through its commitment to service efficiency, with a 30-minute delivery guarantee, a high-quality product offering, and a robust supply chain management system [4][6]. 5. Management and Governance - The management team, led by CEO Wang Yi, has extensive experience in the fast-food industry, contributing to the company's strategic direction and operational efficiency [20][22]. 6. Future Outlook - The company is expected to double its store count in the next three years, with a revenue CAGR of over 30%. The anticipated financial performance includes revenues of 4.26 billion CNY in 2024, 5.22 billion CNY in 2025, and 6.37 billion CNY in 2026 [6][35].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 87.69 HKD per share, reflecting a strong growth potential in the market [68][198]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pizza delivery expert, with a clear path for profitability improvement and significant store expansion potential. The target for new store openings is set at 300-350 per year for the next two years, with a projected total of around 3,000 stores by 2030, nearly three times the current number [54][191][198]. - The company has demonstrated strong brand momentum, achieving continuous same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters, even in a challenging market environment [68][145]. - The delivery model is a key differentiator, with a commitment to delivering within 30 minutes, which enhances customer satisfaction and brand loyalty [96][232]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pizza market in China is expected to grow from 45.8 billion RMB in 2023 to 77.1 billion RMB by 2027, with a CAGR of 13.9% [39][171]. - The chain penetration rate for the pizza industry is significantly higher than other dining sectors, with a current rate of 90.1% expected to rise to 93.1% by 2027 [18][39]. Company Profile - The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino's Pizza in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, having opened 1,000 stores across 33 cities as of November 2024 [68][80]. - The management team is experienced, with a focus on local market strategies and a commitment to enhancing operational efficiency [81][106]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a robust supply chain and a diverse menu, offering 33 different pizza options with customizable toppings, which enhances customer appeal [124][154]. - The brand has a strong global presence, being the leading pizza brand worldwide, which supports its growth in the Chinese market [157]. Future Outlook - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 42.9 billion RMB in 2024, 53.0 billion RMB in 2025, and 63.8 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [171][173]. - The company is expected to improve its operating profit margin (OPM) due to increased sales and optimized cost structures, with a target OPM of 14.5% by 2024 [164][171].

销售与管理视频号开通啦 欢迎关注并留下您睿智犀利的评论吧 ----------------------------------------- - - 作者： 智先生 来源：智先生（ID：zhixs10） 要说2024年有什么天坑行业排行的话，餐饮业估计能名列前茅。 很多地区的"排队王"都陷入了摆烂的局面，客流量肉眼可见变得稀疏起来，预订率下降，导致营业额也大幅缩水。 有餐饮人在网上自嘲， "开店时身上有二十多万，关店时能去到四十多万，可惜是负债"。 数据是最直观的。 哪怕它们纾尊降贵，推出298、398的"平民套餐"，也依然挡不住大规模关停潮来袭，因为老百姓对米其林评价已经祛魅。 当行业环境不济时，大部分企业首先会考虑加入红海战场，开卷价格大战，虽然"以价换量"不是什么新鲜把戏了，但胜在有用。 一部分餐饮头部借此实现了逆增长，比如像海底捞，萨莉亚、瑞幸咖啡、百胜中国等佼佼者。 不过仔细翻看各上市公司的财报，可以发现一点，能实现同比增长的寥寥无几， 与其说逆增长，不如说维持营收平衡更贴切 。 根据国家统计局数据，今年1-8月份，餐饮收入34998亿元，同比增长6.6%，从大盘来看，还算可以，最起码像房地产、家装 ...

18 Oct 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update DPC Dash (1405 HK) Our view on placement by Domino's Pizza What is new? Sales of shares by the 2nd largest shareholder of DPC Dash (1405 HK). Domino's Pizza (DPZ US), the 2nd largest shareholder of DPC Dash (1405 HK), has sold 10mn shares (about 7.66% of total shares issued), at the price of HK$ 65.0 per share, with a 12.8% discount to last closing price of HK$ 74.55. After this trade, Domino's Pizza's ownership ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 92.30, compared to the current price of HKD 69.00 [2]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a period of increasing momentum and enhanced liquidity following the announcement of a major shareholder, Domino's Pizza LLC, agreeing to sell 10 million shares, representing approximately 7.66% of the total issued share capital [2]. - The company has successfully expanded its store count to 978 in Q3 2024, with plans to exceed 1,000 stores by November 2024. It has achieved positive same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters [2]. - The company reported a turnaround in net profit for the first half of 2024, with an average daily sales per store of RMB 13,515, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [2]. - The company plans to open 240 new stores in 2024, having already added 210 stores by Q3, indicating confidence in meeting its annual target [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at HKD 3,051 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 51%. Revenue is expected to reach HKD 4,038 million in 2024, representing a growth rate of 32% [3]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit, from a loss of HKD 27 million in 2023 to a profit of HKD 87 million in 2024, marking a growth rate of 428% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to improve from -0.20 in 2023 to 0.67 in 2024, with further increases to 1.73 in 2025 and 2.52 in 2026 [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 94 in 2024, decreasing to 25 by 2026, indicating improving profitability [3]. Operational Highlights - The company has established a strong membership program, "达人荟," which has attracted 21.7 million members, contributing to its sales growth [2]. - The average payback period for new stores opened in 12 cities is under 9 months, demonstrating effective market entry strategies [2]. - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-asset ratio of 52.32% and a net asset value per share of RMB 16.53 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expectations of significant growth in adjusted net profit from 2024 to 2026 [1] Core Views - The company's brand momentum is strong, with leading same-store sales and store expansion performance, indicating a positive fundamental outlook [1] - The company is in a rapid store expansion phase, with a plan to open 240 new stores in 2024, aiming to surpass 1,000 stores by the end of the year, representing a year-over-year growth rate of over 30% [1] - The company's 1H24 revenue reached RMB 2.04 billion, a 48% increase year-over-year, with adjusted net profit turning positive at RMB 50.89 million and adjusted EBITDA growing by 84% to RMB 230 million [1] - Despite industry pressures, the company achieved a 3.6% year-over-year growth in same-store sales in 1H24 [1] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 4.282 billion in 2024E to RMB 6.945 billion in 2026E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.01% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly from RMB 19 million in 2024E to RMB 199 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 359.25% [3] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 1.1 billion in 2024E to RMB 3.2 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 95% [1] - The company's ROE (Return on Equity) is expected to improve from 0.91% in 2024E to 8.44% in 2026E [3] Store Expansion and Market Position - The company is on track to reach the milestone of 1,000 stores by the end of 2024, reflecting a strong expansion strategy [1] - The company's competitive advantage in the pizza category is highlighted, with a focus on rapid store expansion and market penetration [1] Shareholder and Brand Relationship - Domino's Pizza LLC, a major shareholder, sold 10 million shares (7.66% of the company's equity) but remains supportive of the company's long-term growth, holding a 6.21% stake post-sale [1] - The sale is seen as a liquidity improvement measure, with no impact on the company's master franchise agreement with Domino's Pizza, Inc [1] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 426.82 in 2024E to 41.29 in 2026E, indicating improving profitability and valuation [3] - The P/B ratio remains stable at 3.89 from 2024E to 2026E, reflecting consistent asset valuation [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 78.47 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a milestone of 1,000 stores by Q4 2024, indicating strong growth potential and improved profitability due to economies of scale [2][4]. - The major shareholder, Domino's Pizza LLC, is selling 10 million shares, which is 7.66% of the issued share capital, but this is not expected to negatively impact the company's operations or franchise relationships [2][3]. - The company has shown resilience with a positive same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters, and the membership base has reached 21.7 million, contributing to demand growth [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - As of September 30, 2024, the company operates 978 stores, with a net increase of 210 stores in the year and 64 stores in Q3 [4]. - The company has achieved a turnaround in profitability with positive adjusted and net profit in the first half of 2024 [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at RMB 40.80 billion, RMB 53.69 billion, and RMB 68.24 billion respectively, with a significant growth rate of 33.73% in 2024 [6][12]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to be RMB 0.81, RMB 1.40, and RMB 2.54 for 2024-2026 [5][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 2.3x for 2024, reflecting a premium due to the company's strong growth prospects [5]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 9.003 billion, with a closing price of HKD 69.00 as of October 17, 2024 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [2][7]. Core Views - The major shareholder, Domino's Pizza LLC, sold 10 million shares, representing 7.66% of the company's equity, to improve liquidity while still expressing confidence in the company's long-term growth [2]. - The company reported significant financial improvements, with a revenue of 2.04 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, a 48% increase year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 50.89 million RMB, marking a turnaround from losses [2]. - The company is on track to exceed 1,000 stores by the end of 2024, with a projected growth rate of over 30% year-on-year in store count [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue growth rates are projected at 40.37% for 2024, 26.71% for 2025, and 28.01% for 2026, with expected revenues of 4.28 billion RMB, 5.43 billion RMB, and 6.95 billion RMB respectively [5]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 19 million RMB in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years, reaching 199 million RMB by 2026 [5]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 1.1 billion RMB in 2024, 1.6 billion RMB in 2025, and 3.2 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 1145%, 50%, and 95% respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company shows robust fundamentals and improved liquidity following a major shareholder's reduction in holdings, which is expected to enhance trading liquidity and attract long-term investors [4][3]. - The company has consistently achieved positive same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters since the current management team took over in Q3 2017 [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 42.35 billion, 53.65 billion, and 67.83 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 39%, 27%, and 26% respectively [4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.10 billion, 1.56 billion, and 2.59 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 1156%, 42%, and 66% respectively [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios corresponding to the adjusted net profits are projected to be 75x, 53x, and 32x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. Operational Highlights - As of Q3 2024, the company operates 978 stores, with a net increase of 146 stores in H1 2024 and 64 stores in Q3 2024, achieving its annual opening target [4]. - The company plans to open approximately 300 to 350 new stores in 2025 and 2026 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The recent shareholding structure update is expected to improve liquidity and broaden the shareholder base without affecting the company's fundamental operations [3]. - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience, achieving positive same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters and plans to exceed 1,000 stores by November [3]. - The company is at a profit inflection point, with significant market penetration opportunities remaining [3]. Financial Forecasts and Indicators - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,051 million RMB in FY2023 to 6,907 million RMB in FY2026, with growth rates of 51.0%, 40.2%, 27.6%, and 26.5% respectively [4][10]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 9 million RMB in FY2023 to 269 million RMB in FY2026, reflecting growth rates of 1,151%, 45%, and 68% [4][10]. - Adjusted EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.07 RMB in FY2023 to 2.06 RMB in FY2026, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 939 to 31 [4][10]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to improve from -0.87% in FY2023 to 2.59% in FY2026 [10]. Operational Performance - The company has maintained a net profit margin of 0.5% and an adjusted net profit margin of 2.5% for the first half of FY2024, with a store operating profit margin of 14.5% [3]. - Membership has grown to 21.7 million, indicating strong customer engagement [3]. Shareholder Structure - Domino's Pizza LLC has reduced its stake from 13.87% to 6.21% through an off-market block trade, while committing to a 90-day lock-up on the remaining shares [2][3].